Donald vs Hillary

[TimG]

Just now, bush_cheney2004 said:

Sure they did...we watched them change as the night went on.   They were like a meteorologist telling me there is a 90% chance of rain...after it has started raining.

No they didn't. All they did is update their model as states were called. It was expected that the probabilities will shift as uncertainty disappears. You clearly don't understand the information they provide. Probability distributions are NOT predictions.

[OftenWrong]

7 minutes ago, TimG said:

The system is not rigged. That is a delusional fantasy. Trump had the MSM against him but he had the alt-Right media backing him up 100% while dumping on his opponent 24x7.

The system is rigged, not by directly manipulating the ballot but in the context that the full brunt of the MSM was behind Hillary, making every issue out of Trumps flaws while downplaying hers, and even things like providing her with debate questions beforehand. It was an attempt at psychological manipulation to sway the public. Psy-ops. But it did not work because we found out that many people are simply not that naive.

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, TimG said:

No they didn't. All they did is update their model as states were called. It was expected that the probabilities will shift as uncertainty disappears. You clearly don't understand the information they provide. Probability distributions are NOT predictions.

 

Probability distributions presume many different data modes.   Clearly they chose the wrong distribution mode or missed relevant data sets.

[OftenWrong]

12 minutes ago, TimG said:

The system is not rigged. That is a delusional fantasy. Trump had the MSM against him but he had the alt-Right media backing him up 100% while dumping on his opponent 24x7.

Alt-right are generally portrayed as the lunatic fringe. Distasteful. Clearly when about 51% of the population chose Trump, these were not the alt-right but just ordinary folks who have finally had enough.

[TimG]

 

6 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Probability distributions presume many different data modes.   Clearly they chose the wrong distribution mode or missed relevant data sets.

That makes no sense. Before the election they said if you roll a die an it comes 1 or 2 then Trump wins. Otherwise Hillary. Just because the die came 1 or 2 does not mean the probability distribution was wrong.

That said, they did say that if Trump won it would be close and he might not win the popular vote. They were right.

There is no rational argument to claim that 538 did not get it 'right' because they are not trying to pick the winner. They published a probability distribution.

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by TimG

[OftenWrong]

3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Probability distributions presume many different data modes.   Clearly they chose the wrong distribution mode or missed relevant data sets.

I say they chose to promote what they wanted to happen, so that people might be inclined to jump on the bandwagon. They fabricated the data by suppressing information, out of fear of a Trump victory outcome. Trump said the polls are lying, he was right.

[TimG]

2 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Alt-right are generally portrayed as the lunatic fringe. Distasteful. Clearly when about 51% of the population chose Trump, these were not the alt-right but just ordinary folks who have finally had enough.

And the alt-right says the same about the MSM. Trump has his media. Hillary had hers. You greatly over estimate the importance of the MSM in the Internet age.

[August1991]

All things considered, as an anglophone psychologist would say, Donald Trump "gets" America.

Hillary Clinton (and so many others) fundamentally don't understand many ordinary Americans.

=====

With that said, America is not a person. 

Edited November 10, 2016 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

24 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

I say they chose to promote what they wanted to happen, so that people might be inclined to jump on the bandwagon. They fabricated the data by suppressing information, out of fear of a Trump victory outcome. Trump said the polls are lying, he was right.

 

I agree...clearly they did not sample the data set properly or chose to ignore whatever data favoured Trump.   The LA Times was able to figure it out.

One of the basic things to do is validate sample data as representative for the entire data domain.   There are many different kinds of probability distributions as well.

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, August1991 said:

All things considered, as an anglophone psychologist would say, Donald Trump "gets" America.

Hillary Clinton (and so many others) fundamentally don't understand many ordinary Americans. 

 

This.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, Hal 9000 said:

Lets not pretend that we have "free" healthcare in Canada.

I didn't say we had free healthcare. But we have universal health care for less than they pay.

[Argus]

46 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Alt-right are generally portrayed as the lunatic fringe.

They ARE the lunatic fringe.

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, Argus said:

I didn't say we had free healthcare. But we have universal health care for less than they pay.

 

Health care insurance is a different topic treated many times in other threads.   The point here is that the ACA (Obamacare) set the table for a massive revolt down in the trenches, timed perfectly for a November 2016 presidential election.

[August1991]

On 1/10/2016 at 10:40 PM, August1991 said:

Gawd knows.

I was not forced to choose between Hillary and Donald. Worse, I (a Canadian) was forced to say what American voters would choose between these two people in November 2016 if this were the final choice.

====

I went with Donald. But gawd knows.

My prediction almost a year ago looks good now. (Wow!)

But I actually (wrongly) predicted Hillary 47% and Trump 42% (or so).

1. I missed the collapse of 3rd party candidates; Johnson/Green Lady

2. I missed the polling errors.

======

In fact, Hillary came very close to winning. According to current numbers, she has a majority of all votes cast - like Gore in 2000. But she lost in the Electoral College.

I'm surprised about Michigan, Wisconsin - (like Minnesota and Massachusetts) - honorary Canadian provinces.

 

[Argus]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

That's exactly what I mean....Obama and the Democrats punished people to help others.   Bad way to go about it.

But our entire society is run like that. Otherwise there would be no pensions, no public health care, no public schools, no welfare, employment insurance, etc.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

Yes quite true. But even the fact that it was close is astounding, given how obviously the system is rigged.

If the system was rigged, he would not be president.

[Argus]

48 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

I say they chose to promote what they wanted to happen, so that people might be inclined to jump on the bandwagon. They fabricated the data by suppressing information, out of fear of a Trump victory outcome. Trump said the polls are lying, he was right.

And you say it with a complete and total lack of evidence, information or logic.

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Argus said:

But our entire society is run like that. Otherwise there would be no pensions, no public health care, no public schools, no welfare, employment insurance, etc.

 

Obamacare was different....fought out in the courts.   If Obama/Clinton wanted to help the uninsured, then put them on Medicare/Medicaid like other poor folks.   They screwed up by breaking existing insurance markets and making false promises about people keeping their doctors/providers.

[Argus]

3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Obamacare was different....fought out in the courts.   If Obama/Clinton wanted to help the uninsured, then put them on Medicare/Medicaid like other poor folks.   They screwed up by breaking existing insurance markets and making false promises about people keeping their doctors/providers.

I agree with your solution. In fact, medicare/medicaid is probably one of the few government programs which is actually better run, and has a lower administration cost, than its private sector counterparts. I still do not know why they didn't go that way. It would have been cleaner, cheaper, simpler, and worked far better. And Obama campaigned on public health care, not the strange mix of private insurance with government supervision and subsidies that was Obamamcare. But after they got in they started acting like that would be some kind of Socialist thing.

Of course, if everyone could get free health care on medicaid then everyone would do it, and the costs would require a tax increase.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Argus

[bush_cheney2004]

7 minutes ago, Argus said:

 And Obama campaigned on public health care, not the strange mix of private insurance with government supervision and subsidies that was Obamamcare. But after they got in they started acting like that would be some kind of Socialist thing.

Of course, if everyone could get free health care on medicaid then everyone would do it, and the costs would require a tax increase.

 

Obama and the Dems rammed it through without thinking and/or caring about the consequences to regular people who did not need or care about government complicity.   They were forced to buy a product under fine or IRS tax penalty.   Then the actual phased execution/implementation blew up in their faces at the federal and state levels.   Finally, markets/exchanges collapsed for rural and suburban subscribers.   The timing was perfect...the rage was at a peak.   (Majority of Americans enroll in health/benefits plans each fall for the following year which runs January - December.)

Edited November 10, 2016 by bush_cheney2004

[Hal 9000]

19 minutes ago, Argus said:

I didn't say we had free healthcare. But we have universal health care for less than they pay.

Are you sure we pay less, or maybe you just don't notice the deduction?

[Argus]

12 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

Are you sure we pay less, or maybe you just don't notice the deduction?

Yes, I'm sure we pay less. Everyone on planet Earth pays less than the Americans.

 

[Wilber]

12 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

Are you sure we pay less, or maybe you just don't notice the deduction?

Yup. 10.4% of GDP compared to 17.1% for the US and their GDP per capita is about $4000 more than us. So they pay over 65% more.

[Bonam]

23 minutes ago, Argus said:

I agree with your solution. In fact, medicare/medicaid is probably one of the few government programs which is actually better run, and has a lower administration cost, than its private sector counterparts. I still do not know why they didn't go that way. It would have been cleaner, cheaper, simpler, and worked far better. And Obama campaigned on public health care, not the strange mix of private insurance with government supervision and subsidies that was Obamamcare. But after they got in they started acting like that would be some kind of Socialist thing.

Of course, if everyone could get free health care on medicaid then everyone would do it, and the costs would require a tax increase.

Maybe Trump will repeal and replace Obamacare with universal single payer

[Argus]

18 minutes ago, Bonam said:

Maybe Trump will repeal and replace Obamacare with universal single payer

It would be interesting to see Ted Cruz' head explode. It's a very squarish head, so I imagine the top would simply blow off.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Argus