NDP and Liberal Coalition

[webc5]

I've been thinking about this for a while now. Like most of you I've been wondering what the Canadian political landscape might look like after the 2015 Canadian Federal Election. I think a Trudeau/Mulcair coalition of sorts would be great. Both parties share similar ideologies and can work together. I would rather see a minority government with the NDP and Liberal making a coalition against the Conservatives.

[Michael Hardner]

How do you think they will handle trade deals with Europe and China ? Environmental challenges ? And our economy ?

What changes would they bring ?

[cybercoma]

I've been thinking about this for a while now. Like most of you I've been wondering what the Canadian political landscape might look like after the 2015 Canadian Federal Election. I think a Trudeau/Mulcair coalition of sorts would be great. Both parties share similar ideologies and can work together. I would rather see a minority government with the NDP and Liberal making a coalition against the Conservatives.

If the NDP and Liberals form a minority coalition government, it's highly unlikely that the Conservatives don't have a majority of seats in that equation. Not without a significant resurgence of the Bloc or a major breakthrough by the Greens.

[Moonbox]

The Liberals want nothing to do with the NDP because the majority of Canadians want nothing to do with the NDP. Trudeauwill win a majority next election and he'll need no help from the NDP to do it.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Moonbox

[Derek 2.0]

The Liberals want nothing to do with the NDP because the majority of Canadians want nothing to do with the NDP. Trudeauwill win a majority next election and he'll need no help from the NDP to do it.

That’s rather bold……….He’ll have to nearly run the table in both Quebec and Ontario like past Liberal Governments, but unlike the last several Liberal Governments, doesn’t have the advantage of the Bloc and divided right. At best (from a Liberal POV) he’d form a minority and govern with the support of the NDP. Unless the NDP completely collapse in Quebec, and the Tories fold like a card table in Ontario, the Liberals do not mathematically have the numbers (even with a solid showing in the Atlantic Provinces) to form a majority Government...........

.....If anyone discounts this, by all means, indicate where the seats will come from and how the Liberals will campaign in such a manner to attract both vast swaths of left wing NDP supporters and centre-right Tory supporters.........the cracks in the Liberals positions (or lack there of) are just now coming to the surface (war against ISIS, taxation, the environment, free trade, energy etc) and will be made apparent in the months ahead……..eventually the Trudeau Liberals will have to take politically divisive positions, release policy and demonstrate how they will pay for it…..

[Boges]

The NDP's move to the right makes this more a possibility.

But just merging two parties doesn't always mean every supporter of those two parties play ball. There were plenty of PCs that went Liberals rather than go CPC.

[Derek 2.0]

The NDP's move to the right makes this more a possibility.

Makes what a possibility? A Liberal/NDP marriage would be short lived and could very well have disastrous results for one (if not both) of the partners in the following election….That's why I would suggest that such an arrangement would be quite informal.

[PIK]

I am at the pt now that I don't care if they do form a coalition, and watch this country go to hell in a hand basket. Now I am set for life , I don't need to worry much,( unless something major happens.) but I worry for the people that are not.

[Moonbox]

.....If anyone discounts this, by all means, indicate where the seats will come from and how the Liberals will campaign in such a manner to attract both vast swaths of left wing NDP supporters and centre-right Tory supporters.

I think you underestimate the benefits of a pretty face and an famous name. The votes will come from Ontario and Quebec. NDP support in the last election was a flash in the pan and will largely go poof as all but the most ardently left-wing NDP supporters will flock to Trudeau. A huge transfer of NDP -> Liberal votes (almost assured IMO), an increase in Quebec due to a francophone Liberal leader (and the weakness of the bloc/ndp) as well as some minor gains in Ontario is all that it's going to take. That might sound like a lot, but it really isn't.

[Derek 2.0]

I think you underestimate the benefits of a pretty face and an famous name. The votes will come from Ontario and Quebec. NDP support in the last election was a flash in the pan and will largely go poof as all but the most ardently left-wing NDP supporters will flock to Trudeau. A huge transfer of NDP -> Liberal votes (almost assured IMO), an increase in Quebec due to a francophone Liberal leader (and the weakness of the bloc/ndp) as well as some minor gains in Ontario is all that it's going to take. That might sound like a lot, but it really isn't.

Not at all, well fulling admitting a Tory bias........though I don't put much stock in polls, especially a year out, prior Liberals majorities didn’t contend with (as numbers indicate today) an NDP with ~20% and Tories with ~30% of the vote, relying upon a split amongst the CA/PC/BLOC/NDP and the inherent vote splitting to achieve a majority………this is why seat predictions today indicate the Liberals would only receive a minority with ~155ish seats……..this at the peak of Trudeau’s popularity, which the results a year from now will confirm, that he peaked far too early………

Even if the writ were dropped today, with a ~30 day campaign, I would predict a toss-up between a Tory or Liberal minority…….but of course we’re a year out, and the NDP, CPC and the Liberals have yet to release their platforms, likewise the NDP and CPC releasing little in the way of attack ads and Trudeau facing little scrutiny…..this of course is starting to change in the Quebec media, which in turn will open the flood gates in the ROC…..

My bias aside, a year out, I will stick with my prior prediction of the Tories returning to govern with a slim majority or large minority………based upon the new seats (which the Tory’s are expected to win 20-22 of the 30), their election platform (targeted tax cuts), a strongish, life or death campaign from the NDP and the Canadian populace getting to actually know Trudeau………

Right now, the CPC has identified ~20-25 at risk seats, mostly in Ontario……If they lost the vast majority of these seats, but win (as expected) the new seats out West, the result would be a Tory minority……If they win the new seats and retain ~50% of the at risk seats, the result, a slim majority….the election will be won or lost by only of handful of seats………

The numbers for the Liberals, as it stands today, don’t equate to a majority once the new seats are factored in……..Their path to Government is through a near sweep of Quebec, which polls don’t indicate currently, followed by a near sweep in Ontario (which polls don’t indicate), coupled with a sweep of the Atlantic provinces (which is possible), well stealing seats from the Tories out West, which based on both polls and the results in the several by-elections, doesn’t appear likely.

Like I’ve said before, I fully admit a Tory bias, but I’m currently not worried about a change in Government and feel the far more interesting race will be for Official Opposition…..could I be wrong? Sure. But ask yourself this, could those predicting a Trudeau coronation be wrong too?

[PIK]

I think you underestimate the benefits of a pretty face and an famous name. The votes will come from Ontario and Quebec. NDP support in the last election was a flash in the pan and will largely go poof as all but the most ardently left-wing NDP supporters will flock to Trudeau. A huge transfer of NDP -> Liberal votes (almost assured IMO), an increase in Quebec due to a francophone Liberal leader (and the weakness of the bloc/ndp) as well as some minor gains in Ontario is all that it's going to take. That might sound like a lot, but it really isn't.

Could he lose the catholic support in QUE and people in ONT are taxed to the limit, if he comes out with more taxes or a carbon tax, that could harm him.

[Derek 2.0]

Could he lose the catholic support in QUE and people in ONT are taxed to the limit, if he comes out with more taxes or a carbon tax, that could harm him.

If the results of their policy convention become a part of their election platform, with upwards of 40-50 billion in new promised spending, the Trudeau Liberals will have to either propose new forms of taxation or accept running a deep deficit…….this, I will predict, will be one of the major factors in their political undoing with moderate, fiscally conservative and socially liberal, Canadians.

[Smallc]

Trudeau will steal votes from both disenfranchised Conservatives (there are far too many because of Harper's failings) and an NDP that no one cares about anymore. Suburban Canada will most likely abandon the Conservatives, though that isn't yet a certainty.

[Derek 2.0]

Trudeau will steal votes from both disenfranchised Conservatives (there are far too many because of Harper's failings) and an NDP that no one cares about anymore. Suburban Canada will most likely abandon the Conservatives, though that isn't yet a certainty.

What was the NDP's vote share during prior Liberal Governments, contrasted with their polled support (~20ish%) today? Furthermore, what was the NDP's political impact in Quebec during previous Liberals Governments, versus today?

And what do you base "suburban Canadians abandoning the Tories" on? Though polling has indicated a drop in support, Ontario (as polling currently) is far from lost, with a difference between ~5-6% between the LPC/CPC, likewise the NDP polling in second at ~30% in Quebec........the only area indicating presently strong Liberal support is Atlantic Canada, which is countered by the Tory support in Alberta/the West.......But worth mentioning, the NB Liberals were expected to nearly sweep NB in their recent election, though they did win a several seat majority, the results saw a far diminished return than expected, with the NB PCs remaining competitive.......Or look at the results in recent by-elections, though the Tories did lose precentage points, they have only lost a single seat (NFLD) to the predicted "Red Tide".............The Liberals, despite what is indicated in the media and polls, have only managed two gains (one from the CPC and one from the NDP) in ten by-elections that they could have added to their total....

[Smallc]

That 5-6% would cost the Conservatives many, many seats. Coupled with the destruction of support for the Bloc in Quebec, the Liberals can easily gain 100 seats between Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and BC. That would put them into minority territory for sure, and within striking distance of a majority.

[Derek 2.0]

That 5-6% would cost the Conservatives many, many seats. Coupled with the destruction of support for the Bloc in Quebec, the Liberals can easily gain 100 seats between Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and BC. That would put them into minority territory for sure, and within striking distance of a majority.

That 5-6% equates to ~20 seats in Ontario proper...........And your "easily gained 100 seats", coupled with their current total, would result, today in a minority for the Liberals......170+ seats will be needed for a majority, the Liberals, based on current polls, the level of support held by both the CPC and NDP, don't have the numbers........The Tories currently have 161 seats, and are expected to gain ~20 of the new seats carved out of current Tory ridings, which would translate into a ~180 seat majority.....But the Tories are currently at risk of losing upwards of 25 seats, which would negate any gains made with the new seats and result in ~150ish seats, and dependant upon Liberals totals, would see a toss-up between the LPC and CPC to form a minority.......

Of course, these projections are based on current polls numbers, over one year away......and won't factor in the various party platforms, debates, missteps etc once the writ is dropped..........

As I said, as it stands presently, based on polls and the level of expected support the NDP and CPC have maintained, the Liberals do not have the numbers to put them into majority territory by over 20+ seats.......as such, talk of an NDP supported Liberal Government, right now, is not premature.

[overthere]

That 5-6% would cost the Conservatives many, many seats. Coupled with the destruction of support for the Bloc in Quebec, the Liberals can easily gain 100 seats between Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and BC. That would put them into minority territory for sure, and within striking distance of a majority.

Excepting the eternally popular Ralph Goodale, take SK out of that equation.

SK is really, really enjoying their newfound place in the sun and don't see The Hair as contributing anything in maintaining it.

[Smallc]

As of this election Saskatchewan will have true urban ridings in both major cities. Stay tuned.

[Moonbox]

Could he lose the catholic support in QUE and people in ONT are taxed to the limit, if he comes out with more taxes or a carbon tax, that could harm him.

He's not going to come out with anything. His platform will be as comfortable and as vague as he can possibly get away with. Heck, he can probably go with 'change' as his platform. He has the looks and the charisma to pull it off too.

The numbers for the Liberals, as it stands today, don’t equate to a majority once the new seats are factored in……..Their path to Government is through a near sweep of Quebec, which polls don’t indicate currently, followed by a near sweep in Ontario (which polls don’t indicate), coupled with a sweep of the Atlantic provinces (which is possible), well stealing seats from the Tories out West, which based on both polls and the results in the several by-elections, doesn’t appear likely.

Derek you're probably right about the numbers as they stand today, but as we've seen countless times before, voter intentions leading up to an election are completely different than for the actual election. People are MUCH more pragmatic and cynical during an election than when they're being polled a year in advance.

You can quote me right now and bring it up late, but I can almost promise you much of the NDP vote is going to vanish in the next election. Short of Trudeau saying something unforgivably stupid (which his handlers are probably going to be able to prevent), he'll be a figure that the anti-Harper vote will rally behind.

Take Quebec, for instance. Decades of divisive and ineffective Bloc representation, along with a Prime Minister most of the province reviles, will likely have most of the province look to whoever can provide the most likely alternative. That alternative will not be the NDP. Too much of the country (particularly Ontario) wants absolutely nothing to do with them. It will (by default) be Trudeau who rallies the anti-Harper vote and despite the history of the Trudeau name in that province, I highly doubt they'll turn their backs on a francophone PM candidate.

As for Ontario, the name Trudeau is much revered in this province. I do not share that sentiment, believing he was probably our worst PM ever, but people here are still in love his passion and his flare. His dramatic flare and all of the wishy-washy stuff he did apparently made up for him sending us down the road to near-insolvency.

[Derek 2.0]

Derek you're probably right about the numbers as they stand today, but as we've seen countless times before, voter intentions leading up to an election are completely different than for the actual election. People are MUCH more pragmatic and cynical during an election than when they're being polled a year in advance.

Those are just facts/figures/strategies that I’ve gleamed from our local riding association meeting last week………As I’ve said, we/me could be colossally wrong the morning after, but as it stands, the party itself isn’t as worried about the Liberals as many suggest that they should be…….

You can quote me right now and bring it up late, but I can almost promise you much of the NDP vote is going to vanish in the next election.

I doubt it.......but we have little over a year to see who is right.....

[ReeferMadness]

I am at the pt now that I don't care if they do form a coalition, and watch this country go to hell in a hand basket. Now I am set for life , I don't need to worry much,( unless something major happens.) but I worry for the people that are not.

yes, just like the last time there was an NDP/Liberal coalition. And we got CPP. Medicare, our Canadian flag and the student loan program. If that was going to hell in a hand basket, let's go again!

[overthere]

As of this election Saskatchewan will have true urban ridings in both major cities. Stay tuned.

It won't matter. Brad Wall is extremely popular, the Tories have all but one seat federally, the province is enjoying excellent growth and prosperity through a pretty diversified economy.

The Liberals under Trudeau cannot add to that, they can only take away.

No change in SK.

[Smallc]

Brad wall is not Stephen Harper...although Trudeau's Iraq comments will turn many (including me) off.

[PrimeNumber]

It won't matter. Brad Wall is extremely popular, the Tories have all but one seat federally, the province is enjoying excellent growth and prosperity through a pretty diversified economy.

The Liberals under Trudeau cannot add to that, they can only take away.

No change in SK.

Saskatchewan is Conservative through and through these days.

The Northwest and the Southeast will without a doubt vote conservative. Wherever the oil and gas sector is, conservative supporters are sure to follow. Prince Albert and anywhere north of it will most likely vote con as well. Moose Jaw, Regina and Saskatoon are a toss up, Harper is pretty unpopular around here, except with the 50+ population. I have a feeling the Liberals could win out. People love the Sask party but when it comes down to it they have no concrete ties with the Federal cons who are becoming increasingly unpopular. Sask party will stay in power for a long time, but the vote can go either way for the federal elections. I'm going to say there will be a majority of Liberals with 10 seats and the cons with 4.

[Solastalgia]

(First post, w00t)
Altogether, I think it would be an improvement, and a very likely result after the 2015 election. I remain skeptical of Trudeau's capability as a potential Prime Minister, but that's what the campaign will be about.

As it stands, I will park my vote with Mulcair, as he has consistently impressed me with his performance in the House.
What I think Canada really needs is electoral reform to get rid of these idiotic majority governments.