Conservative party/next election

[Topaz]

I just read online, that many Tory MP's think that Harper will resign in late winter and call for a leadership nominations. I certain hope than IF this is true, that he wouldn't leave until this mess in the Middle-East, if he sends in troops is over. As far as Harper resigning, the party is losing many of its MP's and if Harper doesn't think he can win, then he would probably quit, rather than lose. http://www.bourque.org/

[Mighty AC]

Though I would be happy to see Kenney go down with the ship, it will bother me to see PM next to his name...even if he is just a seat warmer.

[Big Guy]

I agree that he may be considering leaving. Maybe it is time for that long walk in the snow. The only argument against his leaving is that he still has not established his legacy. I do not want to derail his thread but maybe Harper got to Paul Calandra. I saw Paul apologising , in tears, for his stupid responses to Mulcair during question period. Maybe Harper is looking for a softer image for him and his party.

[PIK]

Harper will stay to fight and after winning another majority, he will step down half way thru it. And if I am right the liberals and trudeau will be dust.

Edited September 26, 2014 by PIK

[Argus]

Harper will stay to fight and after winning another majority, he will step down half way thru it. And if I am right the liberals and trudeau will be dust.

Because western democracy is rife with the many occasions when the dull, introverted, boring old guy with a reputation for arrogance and meanness crushes the handsome, charismatic younger guy who does great sound bytes...

[PIK]

Because western democracy is rife with the many occasions when the dull, introverted, boring old guy with a reputation for arrogance and meanness crushes the handsome, charismatic younger guy who does great sound bytes...

Well we will see if people want trudeau looking after their money. Trudeau will be destroyed during the debates ,but it all depends on who shows up to vote, people that pay taxes or the one that don't

[scribblet]

Just another steaming pile of manure. At the November 2013 CPC Convention PM Harper assured 3,000 delegates that he would fight the next (2015) election.

Pundits love to speculate on Harper's (always imminent) departure, which would throw the party into chaos, requiring major expenditures on a national leadership race and leaving us going into the next election with an untested leader not well known across Canada. It would make both Trudeau and Mulcair deliriously happy but their dreams are not going to come true.

[cybercoma]

I would be very surprised if Harper quit. I wouldn't be surprised if he called the election in late winter before the Duffy trial starts in April.

[Argus]

I would be very surprised if Harper quit. I wouldn't be surprised if he called the election in late winter before the Duffy trial starts in April.

There's been some suggestion he might want to go early to avoid the multi tens of million dollar anti-Conservative ad campaign the unions are planning to run in the spring and summer. They had considerable success against the Tories in the Ontario campaign, where they spent ten million on anti-Tory ads. They can't do the same federally because of the third party spending law but they can spend as much as they like before the writ is dropped..

[On Guard for Thee]

I think as the polls continue to drift ever lower for the CPC the spotlight will become even more focused on Harper's leadership. Especially after last weeks embarrasments with him announcing Canadian troop deployments, not in the House where he promised it would be done, and of course where it should be done, but in an interview with US newspapers. And then of course there's the pit that Calandra dug for himself and the party and which he continues to dig deeper as recently as on cbc radio's The House just this am. Then of course there is the Duffy trial looming so calling an early election might be a good strategy, but then of course Harper will have welched on yet another promise i.e. fixed date elections. Just ain't no good news anywhere. Harper tried to fashion some with his EU trade deal, but that fell apart when the news came out it ain't even close to being ratified and the Germans, for one, are not quite happy yet. So that didn't work. I would venture a guess the backroom boys are tossing around throwing the excess baggage overside even if it means facing an election with an untested leader.

I personally hope they keep Harper...I bet JT concurs.

[Keepitsimple]

I think as the polls continue to drift ever lower for the CPC the spotlight will become even more focused on Harper's leadership. Especially after last weeks embarrasments with him announcing Canadian troop deployments, not in the House where he promised it would be done, and of course where it should be done, but in an interview with US newspapers. And then of course there's the pit that Calandra dug for himself and the party and which he continues to dig deeper as recently as on cbc radio's The House just this am. Then of course there is the Duffy trial looming so calling an early election might be a good strategy, but then of course Harper will have welched on yet another promise i.e. fixed date elections. Just ain't no good news anywhere. Harper tried to fashion some with his EU trade deal, but that fell apart when the news came out it ain't even close to being ratified and the Germans, for one, are not quite happy yet. So that didn't work. I would venture a guess the backroom boys are tossing around throwing the excess baggage overside even if it means facing an election with an untested leader.

I personally hope they keep Harper...I bet JT concurs.

Sounds like everything is aligning perfectly for the Libs. Given all this, there's no way the polls will turn around. You have a keen insight......might as well get the coronation started. All that aside, I saw a funny cartoon in the Sun the other day - just had to giggle. Can't recall the context - but Justin was asleep in bed dreaming - and he had curlers in his hair.

[On Guard for Thee]

Well when all the opponents can seem to find to focus on is the "hair" issue, I'd say you're in pretty good shape.

[cybercoma]

There's been some suggestion he might want to go early to avoid the multi tens of million dollar anti-Conservative ad campaign the unions are planning to run in the spring and summer. They had considerable success against the Tories in the Ontario campaign, where they spent ten million on anti-Tory ads. They can't do the same federally because of the third party spending law but they can spend as much as they like before the writ is dropped..

It's a bit off topic, but that's also been a pet peeve of mine for a long time. Nobody should be run campaign advertising outside the writs. That includes the unions and other third parties. I'm so tired of the perpetual campaign.

I give it to the Tories, they're fantastic at campaigning. I wish they would spend half as much energy actually getting things done.

Edited September 27, 2014 by cybercoma

[overthere]

The Hair has the entire Tory party gibbering in fear.

[Argus]

It's a bit off topic, but that's also been a pet peeve of mine for a long time. Nobody should be run campaign advertising outside the writs. That includes the unions and other third parties. I'm so tired of the perpetual campaign.

I give it to the Tories, they're fantastic at campaigning. I wish they would spend half as much energy actually getting things done.

Well, they should definitely ban third party spending during all elections, not just federal ones. I'm not sure how they can ban people from doing issue advertising outside an election period. though.

[ReeferMadness]

I'm just so looking forward to seeing the backs of this bunch of knuckle-dragging zeros.

[Big Guy]

Look at the longitudinal data of federal elections and politics. If any one party survives for over ten years then it is an anomaly. Harper led the amalgamation of the moderate right with the far right, created a force that was ready to govern after the Liberal party had their ten odd years and has been in power.

It is preordained that another party will form a government, the right has had their turn so now it appears the middle left will be the next government. It could be because of Trudeau, it could be in spite of Trudeau or it could be that the NDP under Mulcair has not presented a popular or viable option as to the Trudeau Liberals.

I do not think that anybody with an understanding of the history or understanding of Canadian federal politics really believes that the Conservatives, or any modern federal party, could continue to stay in power for over ten years.

Democracy is a government of people. People have weaknesses, frailties and personal agendas a dark parts of their personalities. Any government in power has lots of individuals who have been elected or they would not be in power. The longer a government is in power, the more "scandals" come to the surface.

Look at the history of our parliament. It follows that stream.

I find it fascinating in this forum where I see posters daily posting about how your party sucks and my party is great yada, yada and yada.

Some posters actually believe that their party will gain power and be there ad infinitum. Good grief!

The overwhelming odds are that the next government will not be formed by the Harper Conservatives, that it will be formed by the Trudeau led Liberals and will be given a chance to do their thing.

If they are very successful then I will bet that in 2025 they will be in trouble and either a Conservative (maybe Wild Rose) or a more centrally created NDP will take over from them. That is the nature of our democratic system.

[Michael Hardner]

I'm just so looking forward to seeing the backs of this bunch of knuckle-dragging zeros.

RM - this is just an insult wrapped in a personal observation. Please leave the insults out of it, thanks.

[ReeferMadness]

RM - this is just an insult wrapped in a personal observation. Please leave the insults out of it, thanks.

Fair enough. It's not the fault of the Conservatives they haven't evolved as far as many of us and it was impolite of me to point it out.

[Demosthenes26]

Look at the longitudinal data of federal elections and politics. If any one party survives for over ten years then it is an anomaly. Harper led the amalgamation of the moderate right with the far right, created a force that was ready to govern after the Liberal party had their ten odd years and has been in power.

It is preordained that another party will form a government, the right has had their turn so now it appears the middle left will be the next government. It could be because of Trudeau, it could be in spite of Trudeau or it could be that the NDP under Mulcair has not presented a popular or viable option as to the Trudeau Liberals.

I do not think that anybody with an understanding of the history or understanding of Canadian federal politics really believes that the Conservatives, or any modern federal party, could continue to stay in power for over ten years.

Democracy is a government of people. People have weaknesses, frailties and personal agendas a dark parts of their personalities. Any government in power has lots of individuals who have been elected or they would not be in power. The longer a government is in power, the more "scandals" come to the surface.

Look at the history of our parliament. It follows that stream.

I find it fascinating in this forum where I see posters daily posting about how your party sucks and my party is great yada, yada and yada.

Some posters actually believe that their party will gain power and be there ad infinitum. Good grief!

The overwhelming odds are that the next government will not be formed by the Harper Conservatives, that it will be formed by the Trudeau led Liberals and will be given a chance to do their thing.

If they are very successful then I will bet that in 2025 they will be in trouble and either a Conservative (maybe Wild Rose) or a more centrally created NDP will take over from them. That is the nature of our democratic system

If you we're arguing the chance of a political party lasting more than ten years you'd be right in your assumptions. However the conservatives have been in power for 8 years, and through 3 elections. Odds of the the conservatives winning are independant of their past, to get the ten year mark they only need to win one election. Don't forget victory favors the incumbent.

Stephan Dion, Michael Ignatieff all had a significant boost in popularity when they started as leaders. The conservatives managed to cut them down, bit by bit. Trudeau has proven a remarkable ability to deter flak but whether or not it will last this election remains to be seen.

The conservatives are out fundraising the liberal, they don't suffer the same bloated bureaucracy the Liberals suffer. They can throw punched and don't hesitate at doing so. They are a leaner, meaner fighting machine. I won't be surprised If Harper's still in power in 2016.

[scribblet]

Well, they should definitely ban third party spending during all elections, not just federal ones. I'm not sure how they can ban people from doing issue advertising outside an election period. though.

At least federally there are spending limits for third parties during the campaign, not that this will hinder the unions as they will use their fronts to shill for them.

Considering the optics it might be best for PM Harper to call snap election to get ahead of the union campaign, he or the party will have to weigh which would be the least damaging... calling a snap election and going back on his legislation or allowing Big Unions to run an anti conservative campaign. ( plus the Duffy trial)

[Big Guy]

If you we're arguing the chance of a political party lasting more than ten years you'd be right in your assumptions.

. I won't be surprised If Harper's still in power in 2016.

Nothing in politics surprises me. My point is that the longer a party is in power the better the chance that it will not be re-elected. Generally, a party loses power because of the accumulation of human mistakes and frailties that naturally occur to people in power. There appear to me to be posters on this board who think that the Harper Conservatives will stay in power forever.

It just ain't gonna happen!

[August1991]

Because western democracy is rife with the many occasions when the dull, introverted, boring old guy with a reputation for arrogance and meanness crushes the handsome, charismatic younger guy who does great sound bytes...

Western democracy?

William Lyon Mackenzie King won, lost and won again. So also Trudeau Snr. And also Macdonald.

I once thought that Harper/Dion would do a dance but it appears that only Harper is in for the long haul.

Modern federal Liberals are gadflies: they go from gnats to juniors.

Edited September 30, 2014 by August1991

[cybercoma]

Harper, Dion? Haha. Quebec really is a different world.

[hitops]

Nothing in politics surprises me. My point is that the longer a party is in power the better the chance that it will not be re-elected. Generally, a party loses power because of the accumulation of human mistakes and frailties that naturally occur to people in power. There appear to me to be posters on this board who think that the Harper Conservatives will stay in power forever.

It just ain't gonna happen!

Ya odds are after 10 years you can't really expect to be in power for much no longer. People will always be unhappy and want something new. There is a common psychological effect where we assume somebody else would do the job better on the basis that.......they haven't tried it yet.

I would always bet against a party in Canada who has won 3 elections. Regression to the mean has to happen eventually. If the conservatives win again, I take it all back.

Politicians also need to be reminded that their employment is temporary. Changing up the top after 10ish years is probably just healthy for the whole system.

You are completely right, say the Liberals win and last a decade, we will no doubt be tabulating the screwups and scandals at that time and public fatigue will launch them out again. Add water, repeat.

Edited September 30, 2014 by hitops