Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

[-TSS-]

The ultimate nightmare-scenario:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

[Argus]

The ultimate nightmare-scenario:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

Russia has invaded Ukraine. Thousands of troops are landing at the airports, their warships are blocading ports, and they have seized airports and the local parliament.

But don't expect the extremely weak leaders of the US or UK to do anything about that other than bluster. There is no way in hell Obama is going to do anything about a memorandum which would require war with Russia to enforce no matter what the Russians do in Ukraine. And the Brits have no military left to speak of. Their entire active duty service personelle number about 200,000. Canada's military was about that size before Pierre Trudeau downsized it.

Not to mention, while the Russians have been pouring money into their military to build it up, the US and UK have been cutting the legs out from under their armies, with deep, deep cuts and more on the way. And this is right on Russia's border. They don't need to ferry people across the ocean or across the channel to get them there. They're there now.

Edited March 1, 2014 by Argus

[Boges]

The ultimate nightmare-scenario:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

That could certainly lead to WW3

[Argus]

That could certainly lead to WW3

It's not a defense treaty. It's a memorandum of understanding between the US, UK, Russia and Ukraine guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for it getting rid of all the ex-soviet nukes on its soil. It does not require the US/UK to come to Ukraine's defense if attacked. There is no enforcement mechanism. Russia will simply have gone back on its word, but Russia has never been a country which honored its word anyway.

[August1991]

Nobody cares what the people in the Crimia think or want or say or how they vote. Putin is the only vote that counts...

But a vote gives legitimacy.[/irony]

Putin will do in eastern Ukraine as he did in Georgia, Abkhazia.

===

Yeltsin looked and then chose Putin, and Yeltsin chose him because Yeltsin knew that Putin would protect Russia after so much turmoil.

Edited March 1, 2014 by August1991

[Argus]

But a vote gives legitimacy.[/irony]

Putin will do in eastern Ukraine as he did in Georgia, Abkhazia.

===

Yeltsin looked and then chose Putin, and Yeltsin chose him because Yeltsin knew that Putin would protect Russia after so much turmoil.

Protect Russia from what? Freedom and democracy?

[Rue]

Interesting comment Bug Guy. Its no secret Putin has occupied Crimea and won't give up the gas or naval port. Whether the rest of the Ukraine has any value to him who knows. He clearly thinks Obama is a toothless tiger that is for sure,.

[GostHacked]

Interesting comment Bug Guy. Its no secret Putin has occupied Crimea and won't give up the gas or naval port. Whether the rest of the Ukraine has any value to him who knows. He clearly thinks Obama is a toothless tiger that is for sure,.

Obama is toothless, otherwise, they would have acted in Syria. Same reasons they won't do a damn thing about Russia's latest excursion. They will talk the talk and bang desks at the UN, but that is about all that will come of it.

[jbg]

I think it would be a feasible solution. After all, Ukraine with its current borders is an artificial country.

Sounds like rank hypocrisy. Where is the world's outrage at the Russian invasion? Where are the campaigns for BDS ("boycott, disinvestment and sanctions"). Where are the U.N. resolutions and the equivalent of the Goldstone Reports?

[August1991]

I believe that the future of Ukraine will be triggered in Kharkov (Kharkiv). It is the second largest city ( about 1.5 million) in the Ukraine. The majority speak Russian.

...

Looking back through this thread, I think that BG makes a key point. The Crimea is one thing but eastern Ukraine is another.

At the moment, I suspect that Putin is judging how far he can go and when. I suspect he will go about this piecemeal, as he did in Georgia.

=====

I reckon that a smart western response would be to let Russia have eastern Ukraine but then immediately put the rest of (western) Ukraine into NATO, and membership track for the EU. (Poland joined NATO in 1997, and that was too late.)

[Topaz]

What happens when Putin says the naval base and the rest of Crimea is Russia's and if he has to battle it to keep it, so be it. Will NATO go to war with Russia, then China and maybe N. Korea??? many of those protestors will pay a very high price, their lives and I bet many of them weren't around in the WW2. No one wins in war and many more lose. We need people who can use their mouths rather than pound their chest and bring out the weapons!

[jbg]

What happens when Putin says the naval base and the rest of Crimea is Russia's and if he has to battle it to keep it, so be it. Will NATO go to war with Russia, then China and maybe N. Korea??? many of those protestors will pay a very high price, their lives and I bet many of them weren't around in the WW2. No one wins in war and many more lose. We need people who can use their mouths rather than pound their chest and bring out the weapons!

No. There will be coordinated hand-wringing and orchestrated cries of anguish.

[Rue]

Topaz with due respect words mean nothing. The only thing Putin understands is brutal force. He picks his battles against only those he knows he can defeat. He's no different than Hitler in Poland and Czechoslovakia or Mussolini in Ethiopia.

He's rebuilding his Soviet Empire. His parliament is a rubber stamp of hand picked cronies no diff. than the old Commie Party mandarins. He's another Stalin tryng to crush a people to control their strategic resources.

He only picked this battle because he knows in advance no one will stop him.

He's another Stalin in the making,

The more you throw words at him the more powerful he feels. He is a bully looking for fight and everyone in the school yard including Obama refuses to stand up to him.

I met many Putins in my day. They don't get it until you stand up and fight back. Then they run like the cowards they are. he's a coward.

He is deliberately picking and choosing who he attacks to orchestrate his rise as world leader. He is forming alliances with any nation that wants to take the West down. That's his agenda. This pathetic little man is building his ego killing innocent civilians.

He will not stop until someone sends their military in to fight him. The West won't.Obama has abandon world stage as a military power.

He made that clear in Syria and with Iran.

I wish Colin Powell would run for the Presidency.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Rue

[GostHacked]

Well at least you know what you are getting with an ex KGB officer. Unlike Obama, Putin does not mince words.

[Big Guy]

I believe that it is distracting, confusing and obfuscating to see the world in terms of black and white or good and bad. Over the last two decades, the West has viewed the Russians as bad guys, then good guys and now bad guys again.

The Ukraine situation appears to follow the principle that societies tend to segregate themselves according to ethnic and language lines. We saw that in the Balkans, in the Middle East and in Afghanistan. Politicians may draw lines on a map but the people are the ones who delineate affiliation and nationalism. Eventually, the lines on a map are redrawn and adjusted according to will of the majority. This can be accomplished with or without the spilling of blood. Before Canada leaps into the fray, perhaps we should allow the people of the Crimea that choice. After all, we gave Quebec the opportunity to vote the will of the majority.

Besides, its probably only a matter of time until the Russians are the good guys again.

[TimG]

He will not stop until someone sends their military in to fight him. The West won't. Obama has abandon world stage as a military power.

Can you honestly say that a Republican pres would have done more? There is really nothing an outside military can do other than escalate to a world war. To me the most responsible course of action would be to encourage the Ukrainians to have a referendum on splitting the country. That would at least delay military intervention and perhaps provide pretext for moving foreign observers in. Edited March 2, 2014 by TimG

[Rue]

TimG its a good question. No I can not but I can speculate, During the debate Romney stated Russia was the US's number one geo-political foe and Obama laughed at him.

Romney was right. Had he been elected I doubt Putin would have pulled the stunts he did in Syria and Ukraine yes. I think he would have considered twice. I really do think Obama has empowered him by becoming another Jimmy Carter.

I doubt this would have happened with John McCain yes. Yes I do think a military man like Colin Powell is the only man who can look him back n the eyes and make him blink.

For that matter I even wonder if this would have happened with Clinton in office. I do not think so either.

I don't know what happened but once Obama got re-elected he turned isolationist. The economic malaise in his country has caused him to turtle and turn in-words and I do think with the US now turning in-words Putin is not even started his rampage. I see him as another Stalin and Hitler-the more he is appeased the more brutal he is going to get.

I think Kerry's platitudes like Obama's serious consequences speeches make Putin giggle.

[jbg]

No. There will be coordinated hand-wringing and orchestrated cries of anguish.

Actual New York Times Op-Ed in December 11, 1980 edition, by William Safire, (link) or (link) said: "This time, the West is direly warning the Soviet Union that any movement of Soviet forces across the Polish border would be met with coordinated cries of anguish and nicely orchestrated hand-wringing." I remembered the article but couldn't find it.

The Op-Ed continued:

In Brussels right now, Secretary of State Muskie is meeting with our allies to discuss means of deterring a Soviet reoccupation of Poland. His proposed

response: that we walk out of the Madrid conference in high dudgeon, that we stop working on a Soviet natural gas pipeline, and that we reduce political contacts that could delay the resumption of SALT negotiations.

That is no deterrence at all. From the Soviet viewpoint, that is the minimum Western response - an assurance of acquiescence that is practically an invitation to invade.

Does this sound at all familiar?

[Moonlight Graham]

Sounds like rank hypocrisy. Where is the world's outrage at the Russian invasion? Where are the campaigns for BDS ("boycott, disinvestment and sanctions"). Where are the U.N. resolutions and the equivalent of the Goldstone Reports?

The world is getting pretty outraged right now I'd say. But you can't compare something that has happened in the last 2 days to a situation that's been going on for longer than a lot of people have been alive.

[jbg]

The world is getting pretty outraged right now I'd say. But you can't compare something that has happened in the last 2 days to a situation that's been going on for longer than a lot of people have been alive.

Read my next post after the one you quoted. The world's reaction will be to weep. Far less than the reaction to similar actions by democracies such as Israel or the U.S. Edited March 2, 2014 by jbg

[jbg]

I think Kerry's platitudes like Obama's serious consequences speeches make Putin giggle.

They would be funny if the matters weren't serious.

[-TSS-]

Russia might be thrown out of G8. Whether that would be a price worth paying for the Ukrainian adventure is debatable.

[jbg]

Russia might be thrown out of G8. Whether that would be a price worth paying for the Ukrainian adventure is debatable.

It makes little difference since the now-G-7 would continue to work with Russia. It would not be made into a pariah nation like North Korea, or into what others seek to turn Israel.

[Big Guy]

....

I doubt this would have happened with John McCain yes. Yes I do think a military man like Colin Powell is the only man who can look him back n the eyes and make him blink.

....

I disagree. Colin Powell would not engage under the current circumstances. His "Powell Doctrine" may explain my opinion;

"The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States:

1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?
2. Do we have a clear attainable objective?
3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
4. Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
6. Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
7. Is the action supported by the American people?
8. Do we have genuine broad international support?"

The situation in the Crimea does not satisfy the criteria.

[dre]

I gotta laugh at the condemnation by the morons in control of countries like the US and Canada. What appalling and pathetic hypocracy. Crimea is full of mostly Russians... Russia has a clear and compelling interest there, and the people in the area WANT them there... Just like they did in Osettia.

Canada and the US on the other hand are developing a reputation for much worse behavior for much less understandable reasons. Especially the US. When you invade a country over lies and get hundreds of thousands of people killed, maybe you should just SHUT THE *%$$& UP when other countries intervene in conflicts right on their own borders, where they actually DO have a compelling interest besides economics.