Quebec General Election 2014

[bleeding heart]

I hadn't heard it put quite that way, but I think you're right, Tim. Agreements, laws and inter-provincial matters are fundamentally contracts...and most (or all?) contracts can be nullified under dramatic changes in status. In this case, certainly. Canada would have to decide what is and is not in the interests of Canadian citizens.

Edited March 15, 2014 by bleeding heart

[Scotty]

TimG, you seem to view Canada as a fixed pie to be shared: If Quebec separates, it must lose because there's only so much pie to share.

But what if the pie (in the immortal words of Belinda Stronach) can change its size? What if Quebec independence makes the pie bigger?

With a bigger pie: Albertans won't have to pay several billion every year in equalization, and Quebecers will have a billion or so more than they receive now from Albertans.

I take it this is a magic pie, you're talking about.

Edited March 15, 2014 by Scotty

[Scotty]

I agree with Lawrence Solomon's column. What he basically said is that Quebec will stay as long as it's in their economic interest to stay. As long as they are a have-not province and are being subsidised. If they ever become a have province, though, and are faced with paying subsidies to other provinces, they will leave.

I also agree with him that Quebec is defacto a foreign country right now, anyway.

[Wilber]

I agree with Lawrence Solomon's column. What he basically said is that Quebec will stay as long as it's in their economic interest to stay. As long as they are a have-not province and are being subsidised. If they ever become a have province, though, and are faced with paying subsidies to other provinces, they will leave.

I also agree with him .

With the highest debt to GDP ratio in the country, I guess that means we are stuck with them for the foreseeable future.

[hitops]

Dead wrong. Peladeau Jnr, for example, is directly affected by such things.

Billionaires like him can easily move their money. I am certain, like any other person of his stature, his personal wealth (beyond the businesses of course) is invested almost entirely outside Quebec.

Wrong. Historically, Hydro-Quebec's credit rating is better than the government of Quebec. H-Q borrows at rates as advantageous as Canada's federal government. These are 30 year bonds with maturities around 2035 or so.

The lenders are not fools.

Of course their credit rating is good, they are a government backed entity and can always use the public purse to cover debts. If I was a lender, I'd see that as a great debt servicer as well. It's Quebec's credit rating that is the issue. Quebec has proven amply, that even with 8B in handouts, they cannot balance a budget or even come close. Too many people who want free stuff and give nothing for it.

Edited March 15, 2014 by hitops

[jbg]

The signage laws? The requirements to do business in French? You are surely joking.

I'm on the record as to saying that behaviour is "tryanical" but you know what they say about calling people Nazis.

If everyone is Hitler, then no one is Hitler.

Nothing in my post evokes Godwyn's law or Hitler.

[jbg]

What these blockheads Bloc (Quebecois)-heads fail to recognize is that it is the ROC that is protecting Quebec's language and culture......and that amounts to sheer ignorance.

Excellent post! Spelling error fixed.

[jbg]

Holy mackerel??? That's funny. My grandparents came to Canada from France. I too have extended family in Quebec who do not speak a word of english. What I don't get is what gives you permission to frivolously throw terms out like 'blockhead'. I just don't get it. How does that move forward your logic and how does it seek to drawn in intellectual conversation?

Parizeau (sp) himself explained that Quebec citizens would be like "lobsters in a pot of boiling water" in the event of separation.

[August1991]

I take it this is a magic pie, you're talking about.

It's the magic pie that Adam Smith noticed.

Scotty, you strike me as a zero-sum thinker.

So here's my second answer to you: As one PM noted (Trudeau Snr), federal Canada is greater than its provinces.

Edited March 18, 2014 by August1991

[Topaz]

It's the magic pie that Adam Smith noticed.

Scotty, you strike me as a zero-sum thinker.

So here's my second answer to you: As one PM noted (Trudeau Snr), federal Canada is greater than its provinces.

Does it depend on WHO the PM is? A strong PM a strong Canada.

[August1991]

Wow! What a debate! Not.

But if anyone watched to the end, they saw perhaps the death of the PQ. We saw the same old Pauline Marois in her worst light.

Couillard was a, well, neurosurgeon.

=====

I would not be surprised if the PQ vote will collapse in the same way that the BQ folded as the proverbial cheap suit. QS will be to the PQ what the NDP was to the BQ.

Stephen Harper was the big winner tonight.

In short, I take back my prediction in the OP of a PQ majority.

Edited March 21, 2014 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

You know more about Quebec politics than anybody I know, so your assessment was shocking to me, even if it was reassuring.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/21/michael-den-tandt-pauline-marois-loss-would-be-a-flameout-for-the-ages/

It also seems weird that this PKP fellow makes his riches knowing exactly what Quebec wants in the media and yet he may be a liability.

[hitops]

Ya looks like Marois may not even win, much less have a majority.

[August1991]

It also seems weird that this PKP fellow makes his riches knowing exactly what Quebec wants in the media and yet he may be a liability.

This PKP fellow is rich because of his father and the Caisse de dépôt (the English Canadian equivalent of CPP contributions) which bailed him out. (To translate this, imagine the CPP fund had bought shares/invested in the Eaton company so it didn't go bankrupt.)

====

Two weeks more to this election and as they say, two weeks can be a long time in politics - particularly in the midst of an election. (People active in parties, or close to leaders, will see these weeks differently. So exciting!)

I think the basic question of this election has been set, and it was set with Péladeau Jnr's raised fist - he wants a country. Everyone in Quebec knows now that if they vote for the PQ, they are voting for PKP who wants a country.

Unfortunately, a billionaire raising his fist in defiance - like Ché - is hard to believe: unless he wants to own a country.

====

In the next two weeks, I imagine two things happening: the PQ fighting the QS since the QS will take many erstwhile PQ (nationalist) left wing voters. At some point, the PQ will turn on the CAQ since it will take many potential PQ (regional, nationalist) right wing voters.

This election is now fluid but current-gun-to-the-head prediction: minority PLQ with PQ opposition.

At this point, if I had access to a poll, I'd be curious about the QS seats (not votes) and the CAQ votes (not seats).

Edited March 23, 2014 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

Four mainstream parties in Quebec now, ie. parties with seats. You know, the difference between the politics now vs 20 years ago is quite remarkable. The RoC has become so indifferent that we're not even as aware of who is running. This can't be a bad thing, all in all. Indifference is better than anger.

[August1991]

Four mainstream parties in Quebec now, ie. parties with seats. You know, the difference between the politics now vs 20 years ago is quite remarkable. The RoC has become so indifferent that we're not even as aware of who is running. This can't be a bad thing, all in all. Indifference is better than anger.

Michael, history doesn't work that way.

For people in Stalingrad, or guys in Lancasters over Europe in the 1940s, it's not broad, inevitable "history". On this, I'm with Tolstoy: history must be about individual choice.

[Michael Hardner]

Michael, history doesn't work that way.

The only part of my post you could be disputing, as I re-read it, is "indifference is better than anger".

For people in Stalingrad, or guys in Lancasters over Europe in the 1940s, it's not broad, inevitable "history". On this, I'm with Tolstoy: history must be about individual choice.

Your point isn't at all clear to me.

[Boges]

That's some good fear mongering Pauline!

Blaming your impending loss on activist students from TROC?

Where were these students to protest your racist headgear policy?

[August1991]

That's some good fear mongering Pauline!

Blaming your impending loss on activist students from TROC?

Where were these students to protest your racist headgear policy?

Boges, "Quebec-bashing" will get you nowhere. Pauline Marois is not racist, and people who vote for her have a legitimate viewpoint.

===

Based on recent polls, and the 2012 results, I reckon that 1 in 20 voters have switched from the PQ to QS (Quebec Solidaire) - likely because of Pelideau. And 1 voter in 20 has switched (returned) from the CAQ to the PLQ.

In overall number terms, in the 2012 general election, the PQ and PLQ were at 32%, the CAQ was 25% and QS was at 6%.

In this election, about 5% will move from the PQ to QS and about 5% from the CAQ to the PLQ. So in 2014, it looks like 37% PLQ, 27% PQ, 20% CAQ, 12% QS.

If we add in the underestimate of PLQ polling, Couillard is likely to get in the high 30%: a minority or even majority government. The PQ will be the official opposition. The CAQ may keep many seats. And QS may get two new MNAs.

I don't see an Orange Tide. But I do see knives drawn within the PQ on 8 April.

----

Jean-François Lisée's gambit to put rural/CAQ voters into the PQ column has failed since they've gone Liberal. Meanwhile, his PKP gambit has also failed because it simply moved urban progressive PQ voters to go QS.

Lisée? Smart guy; bad execution - as his wife, and internal ego, will no doubt say to himself.

Edited April 4, 2014 by August1991

[August1991]

Your point isn't at all clear to me.

History, life, is the cumulative result of many individual decisions.

I reckon.

Edited April 4, 2014 by August1991

[Argus]

Boges, "Quebec-bashing" will get you nowhere. Pauline Marois is not racist, and people who vote for her have a legitimate viewpoint.

Pauline Marois and her party dragged their Charter up out of nowhere in order to stand on a the pedestal of Quebec nationalism and point an angry and condemnatory finger at minorities. Very much like Goebbels did, she resurected the theme of "Us vs Them" and told all Quebecers they needed to fear for their culture lest "Them!" (accompanied by angrily pointing fingers) destroy it. I cannot say whether she's a racist or not. I can say she has no moral or ethical principals, and has enthusiastically embraced racists and the theme of ethnic cleansing. She is a contemptible woman and nowhere else in Canada would she be permitted to lead a major political party.

Edited April 5, 2014 by Argus

[Michael Hardner]

History, life, is the cumulative result of many individual decisions.

Right... but... I don't think I said anything that contradicted that - to cause you to say "History doesn't work that way"

I said: there are more choices now, and the RoC is more indifferent than before.

[August1991]

Pauline Marois and her party dragged their Charter up out of nowhere in order to stand on a the pedestal of Quebec nationalism...

Yet Argus, you often on this forum argue for something similar to the PQ's Charter.

Argus, you too - like Marois - reject Trudeau's multiculturalism. And if French were your mother tongue, I have no doubt that you would be a radical nationalist. You're an extremist and the rest of us must live with such people.

Edited April 6, 2014 by August1991

[Argus]

Yet Argus, you often on this forum argue for something similar to the PQ's Charter.

Argus, you too - like Marois - reject Trudeau's multiculturalism. And if French were your mother tongue, I have no doubt that you would be a radical nationalist. You're an extremist and the rest of us must live with such people.

While I'm no friend of multiculturalism, especially where those cultures are backward, I far prefer the melting pot approach to government regulations. I certainly oppose government regulations to forestall the melting pot, however. For example, I oppose regulations protecting the French language.

And I find it laughable that you suggest I would be a radical nationalist. You write here as though a neutral, almost academic observer but you've already previously admitted you are a separatist.

[August1991]

While I'm no friend of multiculturalism, especially where those cultures are backward, I far prefer the melting pot approach to government regulations. I certainly oppose government regulations to forestall the melting pot, however. For example, I oppose regulations protecting the French language.

But Argus, how do you feel about laws to protect English-Canadian "culture" from the North American "melting pot"?

=====

IMV, there are several points to consider in tomorrow's Quebec election:

1) Quebec Solidaire will likely win 3 seats and as many as 5. I suspect that it will get around 9% of the vote and if it does, it will become the new alternative to the PQ.

2) To get a majority, Couillard and the PLQ have to get around 38% of the vote. Polls imply that they will have this. It's striking however that the PLQ is below its mid-40s of previous elections.

3) In 2007, the PQ with Boisclair got 28.4%. If in 2014 Marois does worse than this - and current polls imply that the PQ is around 27% - this election will be a terrible defeat.

4) The numbers don't quite add up. If the PLQ gets 39%, the PQ 27%, QS 9% and the CAQ 25% - that leaves nothing for anyone else. Yet other parties will get 2% (ON will drop voters but it will still get something).

IOW, the PLQ can't get 39 if the CAQ gets 25. I reckon that at this stage, the rise of the CAQ may turn this into a Liberal minority.

=====

Here's my main point: Unlike most parliamentary elections where seats matter, this election is different: it truly is a referendum. The vote percentages matter because that is what everyone will look at afterwards.

If QS does better than 9% or the PQ does worse than 27%, both percentages will change Quebecers perception of the political landscape.

Edited April 7, 2014 by August1991