Which Pollsters Were Close ? And which were ... uh ...

[Michael Hardner]

The folks over at "Unskewed Polls" were a bit off - they had Romney/Ryan winning 359

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

[cybercoma]

359!? hahaha

EDIT1: What did we learn today?

If a news/reporting/blog/journalist/whatever says they're not skewed/bias/spinning/whatever.... they probably are.

EDIT2: Holy crap! They projected Linda McMahon would win her Senate seat.... hahaha.

EDIT3: http://www.qstarnews.net these guys make the Weekly World News look sane.

Thanks for the laugh, Mike.

Edited November 7, 2012 by cybercoma

[Michael Hardner]

More to come:

Newt Gingrich: 300 electoral votes for Mitt Romney

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82919.html#ixzz2BZLmlkZp

[BubberMiley]

_{I think Gallup and Rasmussen have some serious methodology searching to do, particulary Gallup. They were beaten by newer, less established pollsters with fewer resources. And the people who called the polls biased for telling what was, in the end, the truth should probably have a good look at themselves in the mirror. But they probably knew they were full of crap as they were speaking.}

[Moonlight Graham]

Nate Silver accurately predicted 50 out of 50 state electoral college results, and got 49 out of 50 right in 2008. Wow! I'll be following this guy next election for sure. http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2012/11/07/how-accurate-were-nate-silvers-predictions-for-the-2012-presidential-election/

[wyly]

Nate Silver accurately predicted 50 out of 50 state electoral college results, and got 49 out of 50 right in 2008. Wow! I'll be following this guy next election for sure. http://www.forbes.co...ntial-election/

I'm sure the republicans were following him closely this time but admitting to it would suicidal their supporters wouldn't bother coming out to vote if they thought the election was lost, they need to keep up the impression/illusion they can win with polls that back them...

[cybercoma]

The GOP campaign admitted last night before the results started rolling in that their internal numbers were showing a +5% advantage to Obama in Ohio the last couple times they polled there. They knew exactly how this was going to unfold, which is why it's a bit ridiculous that Romney took his sweet ass time conceding.

[wyly]

well that backs my point that parties play with polls to scare/manipulate voters even when they know the polls are wrong...

[punked]

Looks like punked was right about the polls that were right, the polls that were wrong and on a larger scale the internals that were being reported. Of course Gallup was off they had an 80% white sample. What did they think it was 1992?

[wyly]

Looks like punked was right about the polls that were right, the polls that were wrong and on a larger scale the internals that were being reported. Of course Gallup was off they had an 80% white sample. What did they think it was 1992?

how does a pollster make that kind of error?...

[bush_cheney2004]

It is bad form to concede an election before the official results are posted indicating an insurmountable advantage. Hell, if Romney was to have conceded based on polling data, why have an election? He could have conceded months ago and saved a lot of money!

[punked]

how does a pollster make that kind of error?...

With Gallup the theory is they were pulling for Romney because the Obama DOJ is after them for defrauding the federal government.

[wyly]

DOJ ???

[punked]

DOJ ???

Yah Gallup is under investigation from the Department of Justice because they over charged the US government for a bunch of work. The theory is Gallup was hoping a Romney admin wouldn't pursue. Personally I just think that they have been a bad pollster for long long time.

[Moonlight Graham]

The GOP campaign admitted last night before the results started rolling in that their internal numbers were showing a +5% advantage to Obama in Ohio the last couple times they polled there. They knew exactly how this was going to unfold, which is why it's a bit ridiculous that Romney took his sweet ass time conceding.

If spend all that time, money, and sweat for something where the stakes are so high, would you care if people had to wait another hour or so to hear you concede. Romney still mathematically had a chance so I can't really blame him. Maybe the guy the didn't have his concession speech ready either.

[punked]

If spend all that time, money, and sweat for something where the stakes are so high, would you care if people had to wait another hour or so to hear you concede. Romney still mathematically had a chance so I can't really blame him. Maybe the guy the didn't have his concession speech ready either.

That's the word on the street. He never wrote a concession speech and had to do last minute. It happened to be his best and only likable speech of the entire thing.

[Michael Hardner]

This is Gallup isn't it ?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive

Predicts the popular vote for Obama ?

I would like to see the other results - reputable people who predicted a Romney victory.

[punked]

This is Gallup isn't it ?

http://www.gallup.co...ref=interactive

Predicts the popular vote for Obama ?

I would like to see the other results - reputable people who predicted a Romney victory.

Gallup had +5R for most of the race until Sandy hit and they went down for a week to retweek.

[The_Squid]

Who is Dick Morris and why is he so stupid?

"I have examined the real polls, from a polling firm I won't mention, and the numbers show a Romney landslide".

Wtf?

[Michael Hardner]

Drudge was also showing polls that were dead wrong, implying Obama was losing states that he wasn't.

[PIK]

I was jumping around to different stations american and canadian and I hate to say it but sun tv had the best coverage easy to understand and they did not get caught calling winners before it happened, even on the winconsin mistake that everybody got wrong,they had it right. And I like the idea of doing it the canadian way, showing seats leading and won.

Edited November 8, 2012 by PIK

[Smallc]

CNN didn't make any mistaken calls...but the graphics and the Wolf....

[Bitsy]

Nate Silver accurately predicted 50 out of 50 state electoral college results, and got 49 out of 50 right in 2008. Wow! I'll be following this guy next election for sure. http://www.forbes.co...ntial-election/

Silver is a rock star and has been for many election cycles but his results are only as good as the data provided by the polls. He has studied and weighted the polls and assigns value to their polling data. Some polls, I believe, he even drops from his lists if their data is consistently poor. I doubt he will do that with Rasmussen because of their size but I bet he drops their assigned value.

http://www.examiner.com/article/rasmussen-reports-polls-get-the-election-really-really-wrong

[TheNewTeddy]

All the pollsters were both wrong and right.

State by state polling was generally accurate, and when combined with the electoral college, had Obama ahead every single day of the election.

Nationwide polling was highly inaccurate and more often than not had Romney ahead.

[WIP]

I'm sure the republicans were following him closely this time but admitting to it would suicidal their supporters wouldn't bother coming out to vote if they thought the election was lost, they need to keep up the impression/illusion they can win with polls that back them...

No, they likely had no idea who Nate Silver was, nor cared! The info leaking out over the last few days from disgruntled Romney campaign staffers presents a picture of a man surrounded by lackies telling him what he wanted to hear, not what he needed to know.

I am convinced that the overall Republican strategy was to marginalize non-white voters so that they would be less of a factor in the so called swing states. What they didn't foresee was the backlash against their voter suppression strategies, and did not make any necessary adjustments in rhetoric or practice....which may have been a little too late anyway!

It also needs to be noted that many of these Republican operatives like Karl Rove....especially Karl Rove, are at heart, swindlers and liars, since they never deliver the money's worth from what they take from the super-rich. So, should we feel bad for the billionaires because they got so little for the 400 million dollars that Rove took from them? Looks good on them! The billionaires pay out a lot of money to support conservative think tanks, right wing media, and conservative strategists like Rove. It's a good thing that they don't get their money's worth! Otherwise, they would be winning every election considering the billions of dollars they toss in the air to serve up the propaganda they need to win their base of support among the non-rich class.