US election prediction thread

[Guest Derek L]

No polls or debate, just put your predictions down so we can reference them come the 7th........or later due to a court challenge..........

Here are mine form another thread:

I’ll double down on my earlier predictions from a month or two ago and say:

The Congress will stay much the same +/- a few GOP seats.

The Senate will shake out in the Democrats favour something like 51/52 versus 49/48

Romney will win the popular vote by one or two percentage points

And Romney will win the electoral collage somewhere between 270-300 points.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Derek L

[wyly]

obama 305-310 electoral votes...

[bleeding heart]

I can't even guess. So I won't.

[Sleipnir]

My prediction.

Obama:

Strong - 281

Leaning - 22

Total - 303

Strong states:

Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New York, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Jersey, D.C, Vermont.

Leaning states: Virginia, Colorado.

~~~~~

Romney:

Strong - 206

Leaning - none

Total - 206

Strong states: Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, North/South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North/South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana.

Leaning: none

Toss up: Florida.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Sleipnir

[Fletch 27]

Romney will win. The US pupulation has seen how the left adores government bloat and growth.. Obama made that too clear.. I prefer Obama over Romney by FAR but the US has had enough of Obama im afraid. The policies of the left have never worked..

[bleeding heart]

Romney will win. The US pupulation has seen how the left adores government bloat and growth.. Obama made that too clear..

Obama is of "the left'?

I think that depends what we mean by such terms.

[Wayward Son]

Obama will be re-elected with 285 (Leaving Romney with ~263). The popular vote will go to Romney by a small margin. The courts in a couple close states will be busy over arguments about counting votes, as well as claims of wide-spread voter fraud.

[wyly]

Obama is of "the left'?

I think that depends what we mean by such terms.

I see obama as the equivalent of harper

[Fletch 27]

Obama is of "the left'?

I think that depends what we mean by such terms.

A socialist.... 100%. His green energy plan has driven fuel prices up 3x, His spending on health was ill timed and a silly move (A good idea but bad timing catering to one group).. He has killed off almost any and all Mil/Earo activity and ballooned the government...

[bleeding heart]

A socialist.... 100%.

That's silly.

His green energy plan has driven fuel prices up 3x,

!!!!

No.

[Fletch 27]

YES

[-TSS-]

Romney 270-275 electoral college votes.

[Wayward Son]

His green energy plan has driven fuel prices up 3x,

No.

YES

No.

I am going to go with gas prices (if you have numbers for other fuels feel free to add them) as that is the one that has received the most media attention with groups claiming that gasoline prices were $1.85 when Obama came into office and have since doubled. While that is technically true, it is meaningless in terms of policies such as Obama's green energy plan. Gas prices had sat above $4 a barrel during Bush's last summer leading up to the financial crisis where shortly after gas prices took a free fall. At the time Obama took office oil prices sat at the lowest point they had been at in many years. Every expert knew that was a temporary situation due to a mismatch of supply and demand that would be corrected over the coming months. It was. Oil prices over the last six months have generally remained slightly lower than they were during the same month 4 years earlier (ie Bush's last year in office).

[Fletch 27]

Sooooo, RECORD highs should be overlooked simply for political reasons.... The guy messed up..... And no they are no where near the prices when Bush was in....

[BC_chick]

My prediction will be that Republicans will lose and blame their loss on Hurricane Sandy, Christie, voter-fraud, or just about anything that does not include Romeny's predilection for vague ideas, blatant lies, contradicting postions and haughty presence.

Having said that, it's nice to see so many posters still doing the backstroke up the river of denial.

Florida is the state we should all be placing our bets on because it's a tossup in every sense of the word. If it ends up blue O is going to win by a landslide.

Edited November 5, 2012 by BC_chick

[Wayward Son]

Sooooo, RECORD highs should be overlooked simply for political reasons.... The guy messed up..... And no they are no where near the prices when Bush was in....

You said that fuel prices were up x3. That is clearly wrong. You also said that this was due to Obama's green energy plan. That is also wrong. This has nothing to do with "political reasons." Nor are gas prices at RECORD highs under Obama. As I already said average gas prices in the US exceeded $4 a gallon under Bush (peaking at about $4.12). And gas prices under Obama have not exceeded the high under Bush (and when adjusted to inflation the peak under Carter is still the highest, and if you are going with the price of a barrel of oil it averaged $23 a barrel in Bush's first year and more than $92 during his last year - a 4x increase. No other president comes close). Furthermore when you compare American oil prices to oil prices elsewhere in the world like Germany, France and the UK you find that the prices moved along in tandem during both Obama's and Bush's terms. Your claims about Obama are completely wrong.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Wayward Son

[bush_cheney2004]

....Florida is the state we should all be placing our bets on because it's a tossup in every sense of the word. If it ends up blue O is going to win by a landslide.

I don't know who is going to win, but I am very certain it will not be by a "landslide". Perhaps "landslide" means something different in Canada?

[GostHacked]

Obama is of "the left'?

I think that depends what we mean by such terms.

I am with you there, but typically a Democrat is on the left and Republican is on the right. Well that is the notion put forth anyways.

[GostHacked]

I don't know who is going to win, but I am very certain it will not be by a "landslide". Perhaps "landslide" means something different in Canada?

A landslide win in Canada means that you can have a majority government with the minority of votes.

[BC_chick]

I don't know who is going to win, but I am very certain it will not be by a "landslide". Perhaps "landslide" means something different in Canada?

Yes. Along with the expression "I can't believe" something.

[Michael Hardner]

Based on what I`ve read, Obama should win a very close one (maybe 20 electoral college votes or less) - however I have no confidence that what pollsters are saying is accurate, nor that an election day upset won`t happen.

[BC_chick]

I am with you there, but typically a Democrat is on the left and Republican is on the right. Well that is the notion put forth anyways.

Don't bother reasoning with a troll.

[bush_cheney2004]

Yes. Along with the expression "I can't believe" something.

Good....now let's put it all together:

I can't believe that the 2012 U.S. presidential election will be won by a landslide.

[bleeding heart]

Don't bother reasoning with a troll.

?

??

Excuse me?

[wyly]

Based on what I`ve read, Obama should win a very close one (maybe 20 electoral college votes or less) - however I have no confidence that what pollsters are saying is accurate, nor that an election day upset won`t happen.

ya always be suspect of polls...I read earlier today the Rassmusen poll only contacts landlines, if that's true they're reaching an older demographic than polls that include celphone users...