Would Iran use a nuklear bomb?

[Guest Peeves]

Would Iran use a nuclear device? What's your position? Your take? What's the chance? 50-50?

25- 75?

10 to 1?

Long odds?

I guess they might change depending on your location and risk.

I would certainly hope not. If I were an Israeli or Arab in the middle east though, would I take that chance? Sounds like even Muslims might be expendable to their leaders.

The UN has placed sanctions on Iran so the UN must think it to be possible.

The West and the EU agree that it's a threat. China...Russia..the Saudis..Who am I to second guess the mavens? The experts?

No one seems willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, and the Iranian President Ahmindinijad history is suspicious sounding on the subject.

In 2007, French President Jacques Chirac suggested that an Iranian nuclear weapon wouldn’t have an offensive use. “Where will it drop it, this bomb?”, Chirac mused. “On Israel?”.

Iran has mastered the fuel enrichment stage of its nuclear program and has proven its ability to enrich uranium to as high as 20 percent.

Assessments are that if it so decides, it would take Iran just a few months for it to enrich a sufficient quantity of uranium to over the 90% that would be required for one nuclear device.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/10681#.Tx8hlFYfhzU

And continuing excerpts from link:

Will Iran use the Islamic bomb to remove the Jewish Devil? A recent study by Michael Eisenstadt, a former military analyst with the U.S. Defense Department, and Mehdi Khalaji, an Iranian-born specialist on Shi’a religious law, has been published under a provocative title: “Nuclear Fatwa”.

The two authors analize the religious teachings of the Iranian rulers about the possible use of a nuclear bomb against Israel.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, prior to his death, approved a fatwa that authorizes the destruction of a mosque and the killing of muslims with WMD if it is in the vital interests of the regime. Khomeini wrote that the Jews were perverting Islam and thus deserving of “divine retribution”. He regarded the Jews as an embodiment of filth and the contaminating source of ritual impurity - which adds another religious justification to the Muslims to rid themselves of the Jews and their state.

Khomeini put it this way: “We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land (Iran) burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world”.

Former Iranian president and Ayatollah, Hashemi Rafsanjani, also justified the use of nuclear weapons against the Jews: “If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world”.

[GostHacked]

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb.

[Guest Peeves]

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb.

I know, but it get attention

[GostHacked]

I know, but it get attention

Something else that gets attention as well, users who can't follow forum rules.

[dre]

Would Iran use a nuclear device? What's your position? Your take? What's the chance? 50-50?

25- 75?

10 to 1?

Long odds?

I guess they might change depending on your location and risk.

I would certainly hope not. If I were an Israeli or Arab in the middle east though, would I take that chance? Sounds like even Muslims might be expendable to their leaders.

The UN has placed sanctions on Iran so the UN must think it to be possible.

The West and the EU agree that it's a threat. China...Russia..the Saudis..Who am I to second guess the mavens? The experts?

No one seems willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, and the Iranian President Ahmindinijad history is suspicious sounding on the subject.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/10681#.Tx8hlFYfhzU

And continuing excerpts from link:

The UN has placed sanctions on Iran so the UN must think it to be possible.

The West and the EU agree that it's a threat. China...Russia..the Saudis..Who am I to second guess the mavens? The experts?

Well theres two kinds of threats that might be posed by an Iran with Nuclear weapons... The first is that they will suddenly up and start nuking their neighbors commiting suicide for the entire persian race in the process. This is not very likely if you look at the history of Irans leaders. Then tend to dabble in regional affairs by backing various proxys (normally shia), as opposed to overt acts of national agression and conflict.

The second "threat" posed though is that it would change the balance of power in the middle east, and make it harder for the west to use force in order to secure the extraction of vital resources in the area, and to enhance the position of various western proxies. I think this concern is probably a more realistic threat, and is probably whats driving most of this.

[Jack Weber]

Well theres two kinds of threats that might be posed by an Iran with Nuclear weapons... The first is that they will suddenly up and start nuking their neighbors commiting suicide for the entire persian race in the process. This is not very likely if you look at the history of Irans leaders. Then tend to dabble in regional affairs by backing various proxys (normally shia), as opposed to overt acts of national agression and conflict.

The second "threat" posed though is that it would change the balance of power in the middle east, and make it harder for the west to use force in order to secure the extraction of vital resources in the area, and to enhance the position of various western proxies. I think this concern is probably a more realistic threat, and is probably whats driving most of this.

Now,now...

I've been told by Dub/Naomiglover/Bud that Iran does not use proxies (pssst...Like Hamas,Hezbollah,Islamic Jihad)...This simply does'nt happen!!!

The other point is interesting...

Islamofascist regimes in Iran,and the one that is certainly coming in Egypt would potentially control the two major waterways for getting oil to the West...

[bud]

if iran ever reaches the capability and if they actually create a nuke and if they use the nuke then nukes would be launched by u.s. subs from the persian gulf.

lots of if's in there.

if iran is indeed looking to become a nuclear power, it would be for the same reason israel got theirs in the 60's. as a deterrent.

a better question would be if israel would use their nuclear bombs. considering how aggressive their military is and how they've had no qualms about innocent civilians getting killed.

[dre]

Now,now...

I've been told by Dub/Naomiglover/Bud that Iran does not use proxies (pssst...Like Hamas,Hezbollah,Islamic Jihad)...This simply does'nt happen!!!

The other point is interesting...

Islamofascist regimes in Iran,and the one that is certainly coming in Egypt would potentially control the two major waterways for getting oil to the West...

I've been told by Dub/Naomiglover/Bud that Iran does not use proxies (pssst...Like Hamas,Hezbollah,Islamic Jihad)...This simply does'nt happen!!!

Of COURSE that happens. Thats what middle tier regional players DO. Iran has interests in the region every bit as much as the west does or more, and it does basically the same kinds of things. But really Irans MO up until now has been to try to defend itself from its neighbors and various attempts to invade them, some backed by the west.

Islamofascist regimes in Iran,and the one that is certainly coming in Egypt would potentially control the two major waterways for getting oil to the West...

Yeah, and the conventional wisdom is that all these wars make the flow of oil more steady, but I dont believe that for a second. The middle east sells us oil because they want our money... Even with things in their current state Iran wants to sell its oil. These countries dont eat food if they dont sell us oil. If anything our policy has restricted the flow and increased the prices, and when those prices go up countries like Iran have more money to work with.

The middle east will BEG us to buy their oil, regardless of whether we waste trillions of more dollars there. We could have built an undersea pipeline from Saudi Arabia to New York City with all the money thats been wasted on middle eastern intervention.

Edited January 24, 2012 by dre

[bud]

Now,now...

I've been told by Dub/Naomiglover/Bud that Iran does not use proxies (pssst...Like Hamas,Hezbollah,Islamic Jihad)...This simply does'nt happen!!!

really?

tell me where/when i've said this. there seems to be a lot of false accusations recently. i guess this is what happens when someone criticizes israel and challenges the narratives coming from the hasbara.

[Moonlight Graham]

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb.

Well, maybe 1%. A lot higher if Israel/the West does something stupid like attack them with them having nukes, which would be about 1% chance also.

So ya, 1% (unscientific estimate lol)

[William Ashley]

It is not in any Middle East nations interest to use a nuclear weapon the area is too small and fallout would damage them it is only advisable if they already face annihilation as a deterent. Mutual annihilation is honourable.

It is also important to note nuclear weapons are an alternative to high attrition war or high casualty war.

More people died as a result of the invasion of iraq than the only two nuclear bombs ever used against humans.

There is no reason to think this won't be the case of an invasion of iran.

To be honest likely more humans would die than the result of the invasion of iran than the destruction of israel.

Niether of those scenarios should be expected though.

Hate is not resolved by offence.

Edited January 25, 2012 by William Ashley

[sharkman]

But you are using logic and reason. That's strike one. Then you assume that Iran's leadership would use logic and reason. Strike two. Then you assume they would come to the same conclusion that you would. Drag the bat back to the dug out and ride the pine for a while.

So, being that one can't think clearly where a fanatical sect of the Muslim faith is concerned, anything could be possible, so yes, they could use a nuke if they thought they could hit Israel with it.

[Guest Peeves]

Well, maybe 1%. A lot higher if Israel/the West does something stupid like attack them with them having nukes, which would be about 1% chance also.

So ya, 1% (unscientific estimate lol)

I think it was the sp referenced, not the device.

To wit: "GostHacked, on 24 January 2012 - 04:53 PM, said:

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb."

One ploy to get responses is poor spelling, the school marms come out.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Peeves

[GostHacked]

I think it was the sp referenced, not the device.

To wit: "GostHacked, on 24 January 2012 - 04:53 PM, said:

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb."

One ploy to get responses is poor spelling, the school marms come out.

That is one ploy that get's people vacations from the site.

[Topaz]

Ok, we have seen for REAL what a nuke can do during WW2 and we seen movies about it, especially WW3, were Russia and the US got their communications mixed up and the US was hit by several nukes. For someone to do that now, they HAVE to think about the future after they do it. Are they willing to live underground for many many years, or commit suicide? Well, the Middle-Easter, seem more likely to killing themselves than a Western leader. I don't think they would actually use one but other ways of an attack yes like chemcials,etc.

[Guest Peeves]

That is one ploy that get's people vacations from the site.

You thilly personage.

Misspelling is a capital offense? If so I know an offender.

I read a sentence the other day on those that chose to ignore capitalization. Goes like this.

Help Jack off the horse becomes very different when you ignore capitalization of a proper name.

[Rue]

Zero chance of using a nuklear bomb.

Oh well then. I will call Benjy tonight and tell him to disarm the country.

For a second there I was confused.

Thanks. I know he will sleep better once I tell him what you said.

This is why we have words like oy and putz in Yiddish.

[Rue]

You thilly personage.

Misspelling is a capital offense? If so I know an offender.

I read a sentence the other day on those that chose to ignore capitalization. Goes like this.

Help Jack off the horse becomes very different when you ignore capitalization of a proper name.

Oy and putz are only spelled with capitals at the beginning of sentences.

Shmendrek too.

However do not use the word shmuck. That gets too nasty. Putz is a good one. It means

someone who tells everyone how well endowed he is but keeps walking around with his fly undone showing his shortcomings.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Rue

[Guest Peeves]

Oy and putz are only spelled with capitals at the beginning of sentences.

Shmendrek too.

However do not use the word shmuck. That gets too nasty. Putz is a good one. It means

someone who tells everyone how well endowed he is but keeps walking around with his fly undone showing his shortcomings.

Wasn't referring to you, won't mention names, but it's a very short 3 letter nom de plume who prefers to avoid a capital defense.

OK if i use kibitzing?

I think any country, Iran included would avoid a nuke attack on another country at most any costs, but a radical group like Hamas (Sunni) or Hezbollah

Hezbollah[1] ) is a [u]Shi'a Muslim [/u]militant group and political party based in Lebanon.[2][3][4] It receives financial and political support from Iran and Syria, 
The party's rhetoric calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. 
It views the Jewish state as occupied Muslim land and it argues that Israel 
has no right to exist. 

Might if there is a 'suitcase' size weapon available.

After all the Mandate of Hamas doesn't accept an Israeli existence.

http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/880818.htm

The Hamas charter certainly will not entertain any acceptance of the existence of Israel.

That's about the only thing that Sunni and Shia seem to be in concert on.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Peeves

[DogOnPorch]

Might if there is a 'suitcase' size weapon available.

Or a handy ship full of blockade runners.

[Post To The Left]

I think any country, Iran included would avoid a nuke attack on another country at most any costs, but a radical group like Hamas (Sunni) ...

After all the Mandate of Hamas doesn't accept an Israeli existence.

http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/880818.htm

The Hamas charter certainly will not entertain any acceptance of the existence of Israel.

That's about the only thing that Sunni and Shia seem to be in concert on.

Hamas has historically called for setting up a Palestinian State on the territory that is now Israel. WHY would it destroy the very country and land it hopes to run? It makes no sense. Not to mention that even if it hit high Jewish populations with a suitcase nuke (Something it would never get its hands on) the fallout would still affect its population centers in Gaza and West Bank.

[eyeball]

Oy and putz are only spelled with capitals at the beginning of sentences.

Shmendrek too.

However do not use the word shmuck. That gets too nasty. Putz is a good one. It means

someone who tells everyone how well endowed he is but keeps walking around with his fly undone showing his shortcomings.

So technically speaking, a putz is proud of his shmuck, or lack thereof...assuming shortcomings doesn't imply something else.

In any case, this peculiar collection of swear words opens a strange little window on a weird little mindset.

[Guest Peeves]

So technically speaking, a putz is proud of his shmuck, or lack thereof...assuming shortcomings doesn't imply something else.

In any case, this peculiar collection of swear words opens a strange little window on a weird little mindset.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, unless there's a shtup involved.

I don't expect any radical martyr types would worry about a few years of contamination or 'brothers' deaths IFthey could eradicate Jews and Israel. After all the 12th Imam is also called the Hidden Imam and the Mahdi (guided one), is due and that signals the end of the world.

http://www.allaboutpopularissues.org/12th-imam.htm