Federal Election Polls

[Keepitsimple]

All of the past governments have had pictures of past Prime Ministers and cabinet ministers. Not just of their party, but other notable ones. Harper put up a bunch of pictures of himself. I'm sure you can see how that's qualitatively different.

This was back in 2008 - and as Argus said - in the private Conservative lobby where you have to a card-carrying member to get in unless invited. Do you seriously think Harper said "hang pictures of me all over"? Your answer might be "yes" - but get real - and I wonder what the lobby looks like now.

[Argus]

All of the past governments have had pictures of past Prime Ministers and cabinet ministers. Not just of their party, but other notable ones. Harper put up a bunch of pictures of himself. I'm sure you can see how that's qualitatively different.

There are certainly portraits of past PMs in the halls of Parliament. I can't say whether there were any in that specific location before, other than those of the governing party at the time. And I bet you can't either. There are plenty of reasons for disliking the Harper government. You don't need to find silly ones.

[waldo]

308 aggregate polling: Oct 2 update

not too far back someone offered up a personal 'region-by-region' assessment on the difficulty current Opposition parties will have in securing seats in the 2015 election. If he's up to it, perhaps that assessment could extend to also include Harper Conservatives... just where will that Harper Conservative majority (or minority) be secured?

[Smallc]

With those numbers the Liberals would sweep Ontario and Montreal and would pick up a large number of seats in every other province.

[Keepitsimple]

Looks very promising for the Liberals, doesn't it?

[Derek 2.0]

not too far back someone offered up a personal 'region-by-region' assessment on the difficulty current Opposition parties will have in securing seats in the 2015 election. If he's up to it, perhaps that assessment could extend to also include Harper Conservatives... just where will that Harper Conservative majority (or minority) be secured?

With that sampling, what are the projected seat totals, over a year out, for the LPC/CPC/NDP?

[Big Guy]

It will be interesting to see what changes, if any, take place in the next poll after Harper has escalated Canadian involvement in Iraq and the NDP and Liberals have gone against.

[waldo]

With that sampling, what are the projected seat totals, over a year out, for the LPC/CPC/NDP?

per that same Oct 2 308 aggregate polling update:

With the aggregate levels of support,

- the Liberals would likely win 145 seats,

- with 107 seats going to the Conservatives,

- 82 seats to the New Democrats,

- 2 seats to the Greens,

- and 2 seats to the Bloc Québécois.

as I answered your question... how about you taking the time to extend on your earlier analysis that targeted Opposition party election results... to suggest where you interpret/expect Harper Conservatives realizing that majority (or minority) positioning you so ofte speak to.

.

[Derek 2.0]

as I answered your question... how about you taking the time to extend on your earlier analysis that targeted Opposition party election results... to suggest where you interpret/expect Harper Conservatives realizing that majority (or minority) positioning you so ofte speak to.

.

I'm not sure what I could offer as an extension........Sundays I pick Lotto numbers and gender of the unborn though

[waldo]

I'm not sure what I could offer as an extension........Sundays I pick Lotto numbers and gender of the unborn though

no problem... you're clearly a most discerning self-serving number picker! You're quite willing to dispense your clairvoyance on the likelihood gains/losses of Opposition parties, but you refuse to do the same in regards your favoured Harper Conservatives. Carry on.

[Derek 2.0]

no problem... you're clearly a most discerning self-serving number picker! You're quite willing to dispense your clairvoyance on the likelihood gains/losses of Opposition parties, but you refuse to do the same in regards your favoured Harper Conservatives. Carry on.

Why would you say that? As I said, in either/or this thread or the one on a LPC/NDP coalition, from internal data presented at our last riding association meeting, based upon the current landscape, if the election were held today, it was determined the result being a toss-up minority Government for either the Conservatives or Liberals…….though, from reflection, your presented numbers don’t jibe from the data that I’ve seen (this is not a comment of your presented source), one possible result (Liberal Minority) is shared……….but I’ve yet to see any data indicating the possibility of a Liberal Majority presently or that the Liberals are even approaching such territory.

[waldo]

Why would you say that? As I said, in either/or this thread or the one on a LPC/NDP coalition, from internal data presented at our last riding association meeting, based upon the current landscape, if the election were held today, it was determined the result being a toss-up minority Government for either the Conservatives or Liberals…….though, from reflection, your presented numbers don’t jibe from the data that I’ve seen (this is not a comment of your presented source), one possible result (Liberal Minority) is shared……….but I’ve yet to see any data indicating the possibility of a Liberal Majority presently or that the Liberals are even approaching such territory.

not "my" presented numbers; again, 308 aggregate polling results... with the latest provided Oct 2 update not showing a majority for any party. Perhaps I'm confusing you with another 2.0 member... I was sure you were the guy that went region by region and offered your insightful musings on the unlikelihood of Opposition parties to realize seat gains. I must have missed where you attributed your insights to, as you say, "internal data presented at our last riding association meeting"! In any case, I'll keep an eye out for that other 2.0 guy and see if he's open to running the region-by-region seat number gains for Harper Conservatives.

[Derek 2.0]

not "my" presented numbers; again, 308 aggregate polling results... with the latest provided Oct 2 update not showing a majority for any party. Perhaps I'm confusing you with another 2.0 member... I was sure you were the guy that went region by region and offered your insightful musings on the unlikelihood of Opposition parties to realize seat gains. I must have missed where you attributed your insights to, as you say, "internal data presented at our last riding association meeting"! In any case, I'll keep an eye out for that other 2.0 guy and see if he's open to running the region-by-region seat number gains for Harper Conservatives.

I think this is the other 2.0 guy that you seek

[waldo]

I think this is the other 2.0 guy that you seek

that's closer; however, suggesting ~25 CPC seats are at risk while simply stating "the majority are in Ontario" is hardly a region-by-region assessment on where Harper Conservatives will realize their next governance. Nor is simply throwing up a reference to winning "new seats out West" without identifying where those new seats are... out West or otherwise. Please sir, I want some more!

[Derek 2.0]

that's closer; however, suggesting ~25 CPC seats are at risk while simply stating "the majority are in Ontario" is hardly a region-by-region assessment on where Harper Conservatives will realize their next governance. Nor is simply throwing up a reference to winning "new seats out West" without identifying where those new seats are... out West or otherwise. Please sir, I want some more!

Such information, though presented in detail at our meeting, is not at my fingertips (nor memory) for the exact listing of specific seats........as to the "new seats", said breakdown of the new seats, and which ones will be carved out of existing safe Tory ridings, should be obtainable with your Google-fu.

[socialist]

I've spent all morning

that's closer; however, suggesting ~25 CPC seats are at risk while simply stating "the majority are in Ontario" is hardly a region-by-region assessment on where Harper Conservatives will realize their next governance. Nor is simply throwing up a reference to winning "new seats out West" without identifying where those new seats are... out West or otherwise. Please sir, I want some more!

I've spent all morning crunching numbers for the possible seat projection after the 2015 election. My extensive political science background has allowed me to devise a formula that has been very accurate. I am the person here who projected an easy win for Wynne in the Ont. election. here is what my formula shows:

LPC - 168

CPC - 111

NDP - 54

BQ - 4

GP -1

We are looking at a Liberal minority. The problem with this forum is too many armchair experts who really know nothing.

[Michael Hardner]

We are looking at a Liberal minority. The problem with this forum is too many armchair experts who really know nothing.

Socialist - please lay off the insults, even general insults about the forum. Thank you.

[jbg]

not "my" presented numbers; again, 308 aggregate polling results...

Any poll results with the new ridings added?

[Derek 2.0]

Any poll results with the new ridings added?

Based on the seat projections Waldo provided, said poll includes the new seats.

[Boges]

BOOMFACE!!!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/10/07/support_continues_to_dip_for_federal_liberals.html

[PIK]

BOOMFACE!!!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/10/07/support_continues_to_dip_for_federal_liberals.html

If it shows the conservatives doing better, that poll will be no good. The only good 0polls show trudeau blowing away the opp.

[guyser]

BOOMFACE!!!

Its BOOM CLAP old man...geez....get w the program will ya?

[cybercoma]

If it shows the conservatives doing better, that poll will be no good. The only good 0polls show trudeau blowing away the opp.

It has been said a million times. An outlier does not make a trend. We need more polls to corroborate the findings from this one. Seeing as this is the same pollster that gave Hudak a resounding majority the night before the Ontario election and is also the pollster that says Doug Ford is statistically tied with Tory, I would take the results with a grain of salt based on their past performance. The fact that their polling is way out of line with every other pollster also tells me that there may be a problem with their methodology, particularly when evidence is that their polls are not in line with the actual results of an election the following day.

Is support for Trudeau waning? Maybe. One poll from a notoriously out of touch pollster says nothing. A few more polls that support their findings will say something.

[Boges]

Seeing as this is the same pollster that gave Hudak a resounding majority the night before the Ontario election

Got a cite for that?

[cybercoma]

Got a cite for that?

Is it not a Forum poll?