Federal Election Polls

[Smallc]

If one month in a quarter is positive it should theoretically break the spell. Even if the average of the quarter is negative, the totality isn't.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Definition of a recession is not six straight months of negative growth but two quarters of negative growth so if April and May and June have an average negative growth even if June is a positive growth, technically we are in a recession.

Edited August 29, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Smallc]

Definition of a recession is not six straight months of negative growth but two quarters of negative growth so if April and May and June have an average negative growth even if June is a positive growth, technically we are in a recession.

That would be very debatable.

[Bob Macadoo]

That would be very debatable.

The fact you think that is an important point to debate.......is very debatable.

[Smallc]

The fact you think that is an important point to debate.......is very debatable.

Whether or not we're technically (or were, rather) in a recession is kind of an important point, especially right now.

[Bob Macadoo]

Whether or not we're technically (or were, rather) in a recession is kind of an important point, especially right now.

....like how the treasury has $5b in invoices it hasn't paid yet? Individual data points are infinitely more important than rolling trends?

[Vancouver King]

According to IPSOS, Tom Mulcair has passed Stephen Harper as Canada's choice for the best person to lead this country. Leading at 37% Mulcair beat out Harper who now sits at 31%, one point behind Trudeau at 32%. Mulcair is also seen as the leader most likely to run the most "open, responsible, and ethical government" at 40%.

This is terrible news for Stephen Harper because despite bouncing around in the polls when it comes to voting intention, he maintained the lead as the best leader and most likely to run the most open, responsible, and ethical government. This points to a shift in perception about Stephen Harper. He no longer enjoys the benefit of the doubt from voters. It's going to be hard to change people's minds about his leadership abilities after serving for nearly a decade at the helm.

These "likeability" readings are close to job approval numbers. Latest EKOS sees it this way:

Disapprove/Approve

Harper - 67 / 33

Mulcair- 36 / 64

Trudeau-48 / 52

Only 1 in 3 voters approve Harper's job performance.

[eyeball]

These "likeability" readings are close to job approval numbers. Latest EKOS sees it this way:

Disapprove/Approve

Harper - 67 / 33

Mulcair- 36 / 64

Trudeau-48 / 52

Only 1 in 3 voters approve Harper's job performance.

That's plenty enough to win power in our misbegotten democracy.

[cybercoma]

That's plenty enough to win power in our misbegotten democracy.

Only 1 in 4 eligible voters cast a ballot for Conservatives in the last election. So you're absolutely right. Edited August 30, 2015 by cybercoma

[Vancouver King]

Abacus' latest has it a 3-way tie within the margin of error:

NDP - 31

CPC - 30

Libs - 28

Grn - 7

Blq - 3

Ontario regional numbers are interesting:

Libs - 34

CPC - 33

NDP - 26

NDP must improve dramatically in Ontario if they hope to form majority gov't.

[Boges]

The NDP are a non factor in Ontario.

[ToadBrother]

Abacus' latest has it a 3-way tie within the margin of error:

NDP - 31

CPC - 30

Libs - 28

Grn - 7

Blq - 3

Ontario regional numbers are interesting:

Libs - 34

CPC - 33

NDP - 26

NDP must improve dramatically in Ontario if they hope to form majority gov't.

Unless the CPC vote efficiency evaporates (a possibility, but not a strong one), I can't see a route to the NDP getting a majority that doesn't involve breaking 40% of the popular vote.

That being said, i'm hearing some rumblings that the Liberals may be on the verge of a big push forward. We'll have to see how that goes, but I think this race is going to rapidly turn into a nearly equal three way race, but with a large contingent of undecided. At this point no one has enough of an edge to grab a majority, but we've still got a lot of road ahead.

[Vancouver King]

Whether or not we're technically (or were, rather) in a recession is kind of an important point, especially right now.

Now that our second recession on Harper's watch has been confirmed by Stats Can, does it mean all future discussion involving Canada's recessions should be prefaced with the question, "which one?"

Edited September 1, 2015 by Vancouver King

[ToadBrother]

Now that our second recession has been confirmed by Stats Can, does it mean all future discussion involving Canada's recessions should be prefaced with the question, "which one?"

Don't be silly! It's only a contraction!

I think the Tories will heavily emphasize that it is a shallow recession, merely a technical one, and not some credit-crunching monster.

Frankly, to my mind, what is more important is what the BoC does with rates later this month. If they hold the line on the overnight rate, I think the Tories probably have a reasonably good argument that the second half of the year will be better. If Poloz drops the rate, it means the BoC thinks the recession will be protracted, and the Tories pretty much lose any claims of economic brilliance.

Not that such claims mean a thing, anyways.

[cybercoma]

Austerity before the economy is fully recovered is the reason for double dipping.

[Smallc]

We were in recession. We're out of recession. We know that now.

Edited September 1, 2015 by Smallc

[cybercoma]

We were in recession. We're out of recession. We know that now.

We don't know that. Those figures haven't been calculated. There were increases in some areas, decreases in others. The overall effect on the GDP isn't known yet.

[Smallc]

We don't know that. Those figures haven't been calculated.

June was positive. Almost every economist expects that to have continued. Spending in all sectors has been rising the last few months.

[cybercoma]

June was positive. Almost every economist expects that to have continued. Spending in all sectors has been rising the last few months.

June was positive and the overall effect for the quarter was a downturn.

[ToadBrother]

June was positive. Almost every economist expects that to have continued. Spending in all sectors has been rising the last few months.

Well, except oil...

[CITIZEN_2015]

The Tories have done well on economy and thanks to Paul Martin Liberals who balanced the budget they were able to avoid a deep recession in 2008 and 2009 by spending billions and creating a 50 billion dollar deficit and they gradually reduced the deficit to zero in 6 to 7 years. What will kick the Tories out is their miserable record on scandals and corruptions and undemocratic manner they have ruled since gaining a majority (which btw was attained with only 25% of eligible voters voting for them. Is this a flaw in our electoral system needs to be discussed in another thread). The manner in which they manipulated the parliament to push through unpopular bills and their scandals past 4 year is unforgivable so yes Tories out. And btw, we were in a recession based on universally acceptable definition for a technical recession but I don't see it as Tories' fault rather commodity prices worldwide.

Edited September 1, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Smallc]

Well, except oil...

Yeah, forgot about that one.

[Smallc]

June was positive and the overall effect for the quarter was a downturn.

Pointing to July and August being positive as well.

[Smallc]

We don't know that. Those figures haven't been calculated. There were increases in some areas, decreases in others. The overall effect on the GDP isn't known yet.

Add it all up and Tuesday's data suggests "there was a recession," TD Bank economist Randall Bartlett said. "In our view, it was a very very mild one in the first half of 2015, but that's behind us now and all indications point to a positive growing economy for the rest of the year."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gdp-economy-recession-1.3210790

[msj]

Pointing to July and August being positive as well.

I'm getting annoyed with the politicization of the economy.

I'm not pointing the finger specifically at you smallc, but people are saying lots of things based purely on speculation.

We will know more in a few days/weeks/months....

We know the RBC PMI has dropped which is contra August being positive (for this ONE metric).

My point being - lets stop cherry picking, sit back and wait for the data to come in.

Let's also admit that Canada has very poor reporting for this type of thing.

Not to bring BC_2004 into this, but if we had the stats that the Fed produces every month then I would be a lot happier.

Instead, we have a government that prefers to hide these things from its people (and that goes for the Liberals previous to the CPC).

Now, lets move on to Pamela Wallin and whether or not she should be charged....

Edited September 1, 2015 by msj