angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Downsides of being buzzed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008 Can someone please let me know T-1 before the election, a polling firm got the Conservative # right. "Asking Canadians". What is this firm? I don't think it exists anymore? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I've been less convinced than many that the opposition parties will do anything to get the Conservatives out of power for a couple of reasons. 1) Trudeau and Mulcair seem to truly despise one another and may not be able to work together well. 2) There's the chance of the "junior" partner in a coalition being marginalized, a la the Liberal Democrats in the UK. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if today's polling numbers are accurate, if that would make it even less likely. Assuming the Conservatives finish 7 or 8 points ahead of the second place party, it might not go over so well for the opposition to try to topple them. I'm sure many wouldn't mind, but it would probably seem a bit off to quite a few as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) I've been less convinced than many that the opposition parties will do anything to get the Conservatives out of power for a couple of reasons. 1) Trudeau and Mulcair seem to truly despise one another and may not be able to work together well. 2) There's the chance of the "junior" partner in a coalition being marginalized, a la the Liberal Democrats in the UK. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if today's polling numbers are accurate, if that would make it even less likely. Assuming the Conservatives finish 7 or 8 points ahead of the second place party, it might not go over so well for the opposition to try to topple them. I'm sure many wouldn't mind, but it would probably seem a bit off to quite a few as well.The LDs in the UK are a small party, VERY much the junior partner, and in some ways to the left of Labour so not natural allies of Cameron at all. Small parties usually suffer badly in coalitions especially if they are from a different part of the political spectrum. We need to get over our neuroses about coalition in Canada. We have four left wing parties and one right wing party, so the Conservatives will be a minority of the popular vote even with a majority of seats. With a minority, they will have about a third of voters. Nothing would be more natural than a coalition of Libs and NDP politically which would represent a majority of voters across the country. If their leaders can't stomach the proposition, then new ones are required. If the Conservatives get a majority of seats, then there will have to be a merger of the two large left wing parties in Canada. FPTP doesn't work well with more than two choices and, for reasons that truly escape me, Canadians seem to want to keep FPTP. Edited October 2, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, I miss the percentage ranges as well, but the way I look at it, if it brings in more funds/audience, go for it. I love the work he does, and if it helps him out, I'm all for it. Like I said, I don't blame him at all....all the power to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 It seems that every time the polls start to favour the Conservatives, there a lull in posting.......... Simply because we know it won't last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Simply because we know it won't last. Crystal ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Crystal ball? That's right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Simply because we know it won't last. What if there's a CPC jump on October 19? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 That's right. It's impossible to understand exactly what's happening right now. That's why I've stopped trying to guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's impossible to understand exactly what's happening right now. That's why I've stopped trying to guess. A huge percentage of the phone calls pollsters make get hung up on, so it's difficult to figure who polls actually represent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 A huge percentage of the phone calls pollsters make get hung up on, so it's difficult to figure who polls actually represent. I still think Nanos is probably closest. That's where I get the idea that we have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 A huge percentage of the phone calls pollsters make get hung up on, so it's difficult to figure who polls actually represent. I see, so polls are useless then. So when the polls said the NDP were way out in front, those polls were useless as well. So you really have no idea what'll happen on election day. So quit pretending you will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I see, so polls are useless then. So when the polls said the NDP were way out in front, those polls were useless as well. So you really have no idea what'll happen on election day. So quit pretending you will. Something is messed up with polling in the last decade or so. That they're wrong is one thing, but they they are usually wrong in the same fashion (under-reporting conservative support) is quite another. Are Conservatives less likely to answer polls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hey guys. A lot of pro poll readers on here. What do you all make of this? http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/what-the-poll-of-polls-says-about-the-federal-election.html "The Signal" seems interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) This election is over. A soon to be released Leger poll confirms the continuing disintegration of the NDP's Quebec core, and it's not Trudeau's Liberals benefiting from this crumbling NDP base - it is the Bloc and Conservatives. The Bloc's prospects are now 17 seats and Conservatives can expect 11-12 elected MPs. Mulcair's stand on niqabs at citizenship swearing in ceremonies is almost entirely responsible for this situation, according to Leger. His principled but somewhat foolish stand has not only cost his party a legitimate shot at power, his controversial stance has handed Harper the extra seats required to form another govt. Couldn't Mulcair foresee how his policy would play out among French Canadians? All the strategic voting that can realistically be mustered will not offset the 'bonus' MPs handed to Harper over the niqab issue. This election is over. Edited October 2, 2015 by Vancouver King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 This election is over. A soon to be released Leger poll confirms the continuing disintegration of the NDP's Quebec core, and it's not Trudeau's Liberals benefiting from this crumbling NDP base - it is the Bloc and Conservatives. The Bloc's prospects are now 17 seats and Conservatives can expect 11-12 elected MPs. Mulcair's stand on niqabs at citizenship swearing in ceremonies is entirely responsible for this situation. His principled but somewhat foolish stand has not only cost his party a legitimate shot at power, his controversial stance has handed Harper the extra seats required to form another govt. All the strategic voting that can realistically be mustered will not offset the 'bonus' MPs handed to Harper over the niqab issue. This election is over. You sound more confident than I am, and I'm hoping that Harper wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) Well, on the bright side, my income tax bill won't go up if the Conservatives stay in power. It's not all negative. Edited October 2, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, on the bright side, my income tax bill won't go up if the Conservatives stay in power. Why do you think I'm voting Conservative? So my taxes don't go up. The other two clowns basically guarantee my taxes will go up and my TFSA limit goes back down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) This election is over. A soon to be released Leger poll confirms the continuing disintegration of the NDP's Quebec core, and it's not Trudeau's Liberals benefiting from this crumbling NDP base - it is the Bloc and Conservatives. The Bloc's prospects are now 17 seats and Conservatives can expect 11-12 elected MPs. Mulcair's stand on niqabs at citizenship swearing in ceremonies is entirely responsible for this situation. His principled but somewhat foolish stand has not only cost his party a legitimate shot at power, his controversial stance has handed Harper the extra seats required to form another govt. All the strategic voting that can realistically be mustered will not offset the 'bonus' MPs handed to Harper over the niqab issue. This election is over. You are saying the Conservatives will get a majority of seats? I think it's a little premature for that. As a clear majority of voters, non-Conservatives can still win this election, or at the very least stop a Harper majority, by coalescing behind Trudeau. Edited October 2, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 You are saying the Conservatives will get a majority of seats? I think it's a little premature for that. As a clear majority of voters, non-Conservatives can still win this election, or at the very least stop a Harper majority, by coalescing behind Trudeau. I think what's he's saying is that the Conservatives will get a majority of the seats, not enough to hold a majority, but "most" of the seats, relative to the other 2 major parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 A soon to be released Leger poll ??? Léger/Le Devoir-Le Journal de Montréal-TVA for Sept 28-Sept 30 had Conservatives @30, NDP @26 and Liberal @32 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 You are saying the Conservatives will get a majority of seats? I think it's a little premature for that. As a clear majority of voters, non-Conservatives can still win this election, or at the very least stop a Harper majority, by coalescing behind Trudeau. Yes, 170-175 MPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyeball Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 All the strategic voting that can realistically be mustered will not offset the 'bonus' MPs handed to Harper over the niqab issue. This election is over. I just can't believe what a disgrace it is if this really is the issue that's determining who governs us and why. Do politicians get the constituents they deserve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) I just can't believe what a disgrace it is if this really is the issue that's determining who governs us and why. Do politicians get the constituents they deserve? Good ole Quebec eh? They were cute when they were giving the NDP 100 plus seats because, Orange, weren't they? Edited October 2, 2015 by Boges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nanos most recent poll (overnight) shows Liberals on the top again likely at the expense of NDP. I am both confused and dizzy by this. Nice surprise but are they playing Yo Yo with us!!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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