Federal Election Polls

[overthere]

The recession has more to do with our deflating housing bubble than anything else. Housing construction is fading fast, and home building is a larger industry than energy and manufacturing combined. The ultimately root cause is the existence of the CMHC.

Ah no you have it 180 degrees backwards..

Cart>>>>>horse.

Without CMHC, Genworth and the other federally regulated insurers the housing industry would be a teeny fraction of the economy, because nobody would be able to afford the huge down payments required by the Bank Act. And without the restrictions on lending contained in the Bank Act, our banks would be as utterly stupid as the US banks that drove that horror show of foreclosure that our neighbour enjoys every generation . As a market intervention, the creation of CMHC(and private sector mortgage insurers) has been a social experiment that has succeeded in allowing a high level of home ownership that simply did not exist before WWII. Every person who gets a high ratio mortgage in Canada has to qualify for it.

Manufacturing is in decline because jobs paying $70K plus benefits to assemble things in ON are unsustainable. Thiose jobs are gone and won't be back, ever.

The second pillar- energy- is in a crisis that will be less terminal than manufacturing.

People defer buying or building homes when their jobs are uncertain.

[Keepitsimple]

The question is in the news release.

"Are you better off now than you were in 2011?"

The possible answers were "Yes," "No," or "Don't Know." It's pretty clear. If you're no better off than you were in 2011, then the answer is no. Even if you're not worse off, you're still no better. Things have not improved in 4 years. You're still in the same place. The poll doesn't suggest that "no" means they're worse off and the results doesn't say this either. The results say that 51% of respondents said they're not better than they were in 2011 and if you're in the same place, that statement is true. If people are no better nor worse off than they were in 2011, then the CPC has failed to do anything for people. They're stuck in the same place.

It should be pretty clear that there is an option missing - "about the same". Why should things always get better? If you're enjoying life and making a decent living - especially in these difficult times - why should you have expectations that you should be better off? In these times "about the same" is pretty darn good - yet without that option, it comes across as very negative. I would bet the farm that a substantial number of that 51% would have responded "about the same". Ironically, that would make those that are "better off" the largest section of the electorate. But that wouldn't fit the narrative, would it? Think about it.

[cybercoma]

If you're about the same, then you're not "better off." Words have meaning.

Edited August 4, 2015 by cybercoma

[Keepitsimple]

If you're about the same, then you're not "better off." Words have meaning.

Yes...they do. Think about it. 51% are "not better off". Sounds like a problem doesn't it? But if half of those are "no worse off" or "about the same" - and we know that 34% are definitely better off - then the "problem, such as it is, is far less. Yes - words matter. I am actually amazed that the "better off" number is so high. That's promising.

[hitops]

Without CMHC, Genworth and the other federally regulated insurers the housing industry would be a teeny fraction of the economy, because nobody would be able to afford the huge down payments....

You're missing the forest for the trees. The reason housing is so expensive, is because of CMHC. Without it, prices would fall dramatically and people certainly would be more able to make the down payments. No CMHC = no guarantee for the bank agains default = greater risk to bank when lending = much more careful lending = far fewer loans given and in lower amounts = less capital flowing around for homes = lower home prices. The only reason prices are so high is because people have the money to bid them up. The only reason they have the money is because the bank is willing to give it to them. The only reason they give it, is because it is nearly risk-free for the bank, because the taxpayer has them covered if things go bad.

It's false that this would make the industry tiny, as plenty of countries without a cmhc-like entity have normal, healthy housing sectors. Without exception, far more affordable as well.

our banks would be as utterly stupid as the US banks that drove that horror show of foreclosure that our neighbour enjoys every generation .

The banks did not drive the horror show, they were required by law to lend to sub-prime borrowers because of politics in response to blacks being unable to get as many loans. This was called the community reinvestment act. This carried on for decades and finally blew up in 2008. The sub-prime mortgage existed decade before the crisis.

As a market intervention, the creation of CMHC(and private sector mortgage insurers) has been a social experiment that has succeeded in allowing a high level of home ownership that simply did not exist before WWII. Every person who gets a high ratio mortgage in Canada has to qualify for it.

It takes a pulse and regular respiration to quality for it. The fact that we are talking about the well known overblown Canadians housing market, proves that this market intervention was not successful in the long term. Canada has been routinely rated as having the most overvalued or second most overvalued housing in the world, in the range of 30-50% overvalued.

You have it backwards - the CMHC poses the SAME type of risk that the US lenders posed. The only difference is that in Canada, you cannot walk away from an underwater mortgage. Which just means instead of a bust and restart, we are looking at many years of stagnation. Both lead to a bubble. But our system prevents a fast meltdown. Instead, we get a slow one. No functional difference the long term. The US is already back to where they were. We will drag on downwards for many years.

Manufacturing is in decline because jobs paying $70K plus benefits to assemble things in ON are unsustainable. Thiose jobs are gone and won't be back, ever.

The second pillar- energy- is in a crisis that will be less terminal than manufacturing.

People defer buying or building homes when their jobs are uncertain.

It's true that we have priced ourselves out of having a competitive industry in many areas through unions and protectionism. Energy is only better because the oil can't leave.

Our housing was vastly overblown and is now in retreat. Canada does not have a good outlook for the next at least 10 years.

Edited August 5, 2015 by hitops

[hitops]

If you're about the same, then you're not "better off." Words have meaning.

You're the kind of guy who looks at a pie chart of traffic accidents showing 50% 'women' and 50% 'other', and concludes that women are bad drivers.

[Derek 2.0]

People are in church from 10am to 4pm? That's the longest service I've ever heard of. Not to mention that the long weekend is irrelevant unless you're arguing that conservatives disproportionately go away on long weekends.

10 am EST to 4pm EST is 7am PST to 1 pm PST a time-frame in which ~15% of Canadians, of which are mostly social conservatives, do attend church...I never suggested services span the entire period, but 15% of the population would skew the numbers.....likewise, I question how often polling firms actually poll on Sundays?

As to long weekends, I would assume by pure economics (including party donation footprint), "conservatives" and "liberals" are disproportionately more able to afford to go away for long weekends versus the atypical NDP low income supporters.......

[cybercoma]

10 am EST to 4pm EST is 7am PST to 1 pm PST a time-frame in which ~15% of Canadians, of which are mostly social conservatives, do attend church...I never suggested services span the entire period, but 15% of the population would skew the numbers.....likewise, I question how often polling firms actually poll on Sundays?

You know the results are weighted, right?

As to long weekends, I would assume by pure economics (including party donation footprint), "conservatives" and "liberals" are disproportionately more able to afford to go away for long weekends versus the atypical NDP low income supporters.......

All those "low" income university educated voters who support the NDP?

[PrimeNumber]

As to long weekends, I would assume by pure economics (including party donation footprint), "conservatives" and "liberals" are disproportionately more able to afford to go away for long weekends versus the atypical NDP low income supporters.......

hahaha that's hilarious. Yeah NDP supporters just sit at home on their computers all weekend...

The way you attempt to justify the things you say would make Einstein scratch his head...

[Derek 2.0]

You know the results are weighted, right?

Weighted how? I put little faith in a poll conducted in mere hours on a Sunday long-weekend.

All those "low" income university educated voters who support the NDP?

Sure, but who else, with a French Literature or Women's studies degree, is to staff our organic coffee houses and locally sourced grocery stores?

The NDP's policies themselves are aimed namely at the working poor and underprivileged.......If NDP supporters are comparably well-off, why don't they donate more money to their own party?

[Derek 2.0]

hahaha that's hilarious. Yeah NDP supporters just sit at home on their computers all weekend...

The way you attempt to justify the things you say would make Einstein scratch his head...

Maybe, I would think after a night drinking Pabst Blue and listening to the latest hip indie band, Sunday would be but a day of rest......

The NDP constituency, at 40.2 years, is the oldest of the three, with Canadians represented by Conservatives being the youngest at 39.3 years. The Conservatives have the highest proportion of male constituents, while the Liberals have a higher percentage of women in their ridings than the other parties.

With a median household income of $60,000 per year, Conservative constituents are richer than their Liberal and NDP counterparts, who have a median household income of $49,000 per year.

As I said, I'll await the next several polls before fearing the workers revolt.......

[PrimeNumber]

I can't wait for Tom to stick it to Harper in the debates. It will be a glorious sight to see. They better bring a portable closet for Steve, he might need it. Everyone will see what those of us that have been paying more attention have seen in QP for the last few years.
A disgrace of a PM taking shot after shot from Tom. It's like watching Ronda Rousey fight a punching bag. Shot after shot, with no hope of ever fighting back.

[PrimeNumber]

Maybe, I would think after a night drinking Pabst Blue and listening to the latest hip indie band, Sunday would be but a day of rest......

Growing up my parents might have had the equivalent to $40,000 a year between the two of them. We went on camping trips every single summer long weekends, to the states, down to Mexico.

I worked many part-time minimum wage jobs in high school and could afford to go on great summer vacations and trips to the lakes in BC, including music festivals with plenty of beer among other things.

You make it seem like a summer vacation or a long weekend trip costs an arm and a leg. You don't have to go to Maui to get away from the hustle and bustle. Why just this long weekend I went camping about 3 hours away from my house, had absolutely no internet service and spent very little money doing so. I among many other NDP supporters probably did the same.... oh wait but I forgot only Conservative supporters go on holidays.

[blueblood]

I can't wait for Tom to stick it to Harper in the debates. It will be a glorious sight to see. They better bring a portable closet for Steve, he might need it. Everyone will see what those of us that have been paying more attention have seen in QP for the last few years.

A disgrace of a PM taking shot after shot from Tom. It's like watching Ronda Rousey fight a punching bag. Shot after shot, with no hope of ever fighting back.

Ive heard that fairy tale before from when ignatieff was going to take out harper as ignatieff was an ivy league professor. And there was jack layton too!! We both know how that turned out!!

[Vancouver King]

Ive heard that fairy tale before from when ignatieff was going to take out harper as ignatieff was an ivy league professor. And there was jack layton too!! We both know how that turned out!!

You really should have tuned into QP last session to witness Mulcair tear strips off Harper's hide. It was almost cruel but thoroughly entertaining. Don't take my word, Mulcair's performance moved Conservative PM Brian Mulroney to declare the NDP leader the best Opposition Leader since Diefenbaker.

[cybercoma]

Weighted how? I put little faith in a poll conducted in mere hours on a Sunday long-weekend.

Would it be better if it was conducted during business hours in the work week?

Sure, but who else, with a French Literature or Women's studies degree, is to staff our organic coffee houses and locally sourced grocery stores?

The NDP's policies themselves are aimed namely at the working poor and underprivileged.......If NDP supporters are comparably well-off, why don't they donate more money to their own party?

Now you're just being stupid, so you stroke your tiny partisan ego.

[PrimeNumber]

Ive heard that fairy tale before from when ignatieff was going to take out harper as ignatieff was an ivy league professor. And there was jack layton too!! We both know how that turned out!!

You haven't seen how quick Tom is in QP, on the fly. It's brilliant. Then you have old helmet head Steve standing there staring at his script with a blank expression on his face, as usual.

[cybercoma]

You haven't seen how quick Tom is in QP, on the fly. It's brilliant. Then you have old helmet head Steve standing there staring at his script with a blank expression on his face, as usual.

And that's what he'll continue to do in the debates tomorrow. Harper will ignore the opposition, stare into the camera, and drone on and on with his scripted message. Then we'll have Conservative cheerleaders all over this forum telling us what a strong leadership he showed during the debates and how he won despite not addressing anyone or anything posed to him. It happened last election and blue Koolaid Crew lapped it up and they'll do so again tomorrow. Edited August 5, 2015 by cybercoma

[Derek 2.0]

Would it be better if it was conducted during business hours in the work week?

I thought most pollsters called just as you were about to sit down to dinner........

Now you're just being stupid, so you stroke your tiny partisan ego.

How is providing reported average income of party supporters, to support my point that Tory supporters are more likely able to afford to go away on vacation stupid?

Earlier, you retorted with the average level of education among party supporters to counter said point........was that a demonstration of you stroking your tiny partisan ego?

I would like to see a poll demonstrating how many NDP supporters have Arts degrees, and of them, are employed in their field of study........

[blueblood]

And that's what he'll continue to do in the debates tomorrow. Harper will ignore the opposition, stare into the camera, and drone on and on with his scripted message. Then we'll have Conservative cheerleaders all over this forum telling us what a strong leadership he showed during the debates and how he won despite not addressing anyone or anything posed to him. It happened last election and blue Koolaid Crew lapped it up and they'll do so again tomorrow.

Yeah last election when jack and iggy were supposed to mop the floor with harper, how did that turn out?

[bush_cheney2004]

Yeah last election when jack and iggy were supposed to mop the floor with harper, how did that turn out?

Turned out great.....iggy scurried back to the U,S. where he came from and jack went to the NDP promised land.

[On Guard for Thee]

Turned out great.....iggy scurried back to the U,S. where he came from and jack went to the NDP promised land.

I wish he wasn't the only one who'd scurry back to the US.

[PrimeNumber]

Jack Layton was great but had no where near the tenacity of Muclair these days.
It's quite the spectacle to watch Muclair make Harper his whipping boy in QP.

[blueblood]

Jack Layton was great but had no where near the tenacity of Muclair these days.

It's quite the spectacle to watch Muclair make Harper his whipping boy in QP.

mulcair asks a question, he wins!!!

[PrimeNumber]

mulcair asks a question, he wins!!!

No Muclair asks a question about whatever stupid thing Harper has done, is doing, is attempting to do.

Robot Harpercon begins with "Uhh Mr. Speaker let me be very clear...."

Harper rambles on in with a pre-written response that has absolutely nothing to do with the question.

Muclair fires back at that response as well, making Harper look stupid not once but twice in a very short time.

It's even better when Muclair can tie in the initial question with the response he makes to Harpers rambling.

Bonus points.

It's going to be fun watching Muclair the lawyer go up against Harper the "economist". He's afraid to take questions from his own damn citizens, he's shaking in his loafers with Muclair.

Edited August 6, 2015 by PrimeNumber