On Guard for Thee Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 103 + 80 + 118 + 4 + 9 = 314 What happened to the other 24 seats? Must be some form of biblical math we mortals are not worthy of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Must be some form of biblical math we mortals are not worthy of. All human jobs are imperfect, so do I. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 All human jobs are imperfect, so do I. No, one of the most important human jobs is giving birth, and it usually works perfectly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 No, one of the most important human jobs is giving birth, and it usually works perfectly. I hope so, but you should not forget the medical contribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On Guard for Thee Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 I hope so, but you should not forget the medical contribution. Not sure what that means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Estimation of Seats on Poll Numbers, Sept. 30 (the 2nd version) By Exegesisme The Estimation of Seats of Each Party on the Poll Numbers of Sept. 30 Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc% national 32.1 26.3 32.2 4.4 4.6 ON (121) 34 21 40 5 QU (78) 20 34 25 1 19 PR (62) 51 21 24 4 BC (42) 30 32 30 8 AT (32) 19 25 49 6 YNN (3) Con NDP Lib Green Bloc ES (338) 112 81 129 5 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not sure what that means. No, one of the most important human jobs is giving birth, and it usually works perfectly. I mean, the definition of perfection is different between us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddy Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 I mean, the definition of perfection is different between us. His definition of perfect is himself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Right now, the majority of seats here in BC are polling the NDP and Tories neck and neck, with the Liberals a distant third (outside of several metro Vancouver ridings), if the NDP in BC start loosing numbers to the Liberals (or even Greens), the Tories win in most cases (absent a complete NDP collapse).if the majority of seats were polling that way, then the national polls wouldn't be a 3-way tie in BC, it would have the Liberals behind. Where are you seeing seat by seat polling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Seat-by-seat riding projections and internal party polling.......who is Stephen McMurtry and what did you say about internal polling before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Better plan all that strategic voting ASAP. http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/conservatives-out-in-front-new-poll-finds.html With little over two weeks left before Canadians, the Conservatives have jumped out to a “clear lead” in public support, according to new results from polling firm Forum Research. The survey of 1,499 Canadian voters has Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s party ahead with 34 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the NDP and 27 per cent support for the Liberals. The Greens and Bloc Québécois each drew 5 per cent support, and 1 per cent of respondents said they support “other.” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff attributes the latest bump in Tory fortunes to the party scoring points amid the recent flare up in the controversy over the niqab, the face veil some Muslim women wear. Two-thirds (64 per cent) of Canadian voters are opposed to having fully veiled women swear the oath of citizenship, while just over a quarter (26) support it, the poll found. Ten per cent don’t know, according to Forum’s results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 if the majority of seats were polling that way, then the national polls wouldn't be a 3-way tie in BC, it would have the Liberals behind. Where are you seeing seat by seat polling? As is becoming clear...they are behind...possibly back in 3rd place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Better plan all that strategic voting ASAP. http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/conservatives-out-in-front-new-poll-finds.html That poll is quite a ways out from other firms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 As is becoming clear...they are behind...possibly back in 3rd place. How is that clear? The polls do not agree with you whatsoever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 That poll is quite a ways out from other firms. The Star is no friend of Conservatives and this poll could very well be showing us that the large EKOS poll was not an outlier after all. Still three weeks to go however......anything can happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Canadians are smart enough to know the liberals and NDP plans will be a disaster for the country. IMO The polls will start showing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Star is no friend of Conservatives and this poll could very well be showing us that the large EKOS poll was not an outlier after all. Still three weeks to go however......anything can happen. The poll could be anything. What you're saying doesn't mean much at all. The graph I posted above includes that poll in there, as well as the margins of error (grey shading). What's clear is that the NDP is falling behind and the CPC and LPC are tied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 The poll could be anything. What you're saying doesn't mean much at all. The graph I posted above includes that poll in there, as well as the margins of error (grey shading). What's clear is that the NDP is falling behind and the CPC and LPC are tied. OK - let's have it your way.....time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 OK - let's have it your way.....time will tell. It's not my way. If I had it my way, the Conservatives would have fewer seats than the Bloc Québécois. I'm just pointing out what the polls currently say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 From Nanos today: 32.8% for the Conservatives, 31.7% for the Liberals, 26.1% for the NDP and 4.1% for the Greens nationally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 NANOS POLLING SEPT. 30TH. CURRENT POLLING RESULTS ARE:1. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS- 40%2. CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA- 32%3. LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA - 31 %4. NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF CANADA- 26%5. GREEN PARTY OF CANADA - 6%6. BLOC QUEBECOIS- 4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 The model there is the one Eric Grenier has put together for threehundredeight.com. The default numbers there, the "average" gives the Liberals 112 seats nationally and 10 in BC. If you change it to the Liberal high averages, their national total increases to 128 and 14 in BC. A full fourth of the new seats come from that province. They have room for growth, and this is a party that won only two seats there in 2011. Yes, their vote is the least efficient, but in an election in which every seat counts, those four seats that they'd gain with a little more of an uptick could make a huge difference. And if you change it back to average, Tory high average, NDP high average etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Your source has a disclaimer; "These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voter intention in each of these ridings." So where did your numbers come from - examining the entrails of birds? The Wizard's own internal polling machine........entrails of birds maybe, whatever works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) HOLY JEEZ. The world just ended and hell froze over. Take a look at the comments on the Toronto Star. What did I just read??????????????? http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/justin-trudeau-and-tom-mulcair-battle-each-other-as-stephen-harper-pulls-ahead-walkom.html Edited October 1, 2015 by angrypenguin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 if the majority of seats were polling that way, then the national polls wouldn't be a 3-way tie in BC, it would have the Liberals behind. Where are you seeing seat by seat polling? They are behind......EKOS should be releasing a poll, later today or tomorrow morning, confirming/aligning with today's FORUM poll for the Star, both of which are under representing, to a degree, our internal polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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