Canadian Political Polls

[eyeball]

I don't think "outsider" defines someone like you. Maybe "malcontented nutball".

You just don't get facetiousness do you?

[capricorn]

If Ignatieff can campaign as well as his tour has been going, I think the answer is yes/dependent on platform.

I wonder if he'll stick to the blue checkered shirt persona in a real election campaign. I suppose the reviews will determine that. As for the platform, we know it's evolving.

Though the deficit is important, if people are still losing jobs, that's what people will most likely focus on.

In a roundabout way, I see we agree that the jobs market can have an impact on how people vote. Yet, you haven't answered my question. Do you think Page reporting that the Conservatives are on track to balancing the books earlier than forecast is good or bad news for the Liberals? Keep in mind that Page has reversed his earlier position where he had previously said the deficit could only be eliminated by program spending cuts and tax hikes.

[msdogfood]

I wonder if he'll stick to the blue checkered shirt persona in a real election campaign. I suppose the reviews will determine that. As for the platform, we know it's evolving.

In a roundabout way, I see we agree that the jobs market can have an impact on how people vote. Yet, you haven't answered my question. Do you think Page reporting that the Conservatives are on track to balancing the books earlier than forecast is good or bad news for the Liberals? Keep in mind that Page has reversed his earlier position where he had previously said the deficit could only be eliminated by program spending cuts and tax hikes.

Page has reversed his earlier position For now!!

See houseing data!

[msdogfood]

See Harris/Decima data

[August1991]

See Harris/Decima data

Nationally, the Conservatives hold a six point lead. The Conservatives stand at 34%, the Liberals 28%, the NDP 15%, the Greens 12% and the BQ 9%.

Tell me something that's new.

After four years as PM, having many options in Quebec and rural Ontario, spending like a drunk sailor, appeasing everyone, keeping things in control, managing the issues and going for "incremental Conservatism", Harper is at 34%.

Wow, I'm not impressed.

Edited August 11, 2010 by August1991

[msdogfood]

Tell me something that's new.

After four years as PM, having many options in Quebec and rural Ontario, spending like a drunk sailor, appeasing everyone, keeping things in control, managing the issues and going for "incremental Conservatism", Harper is at 34%.

Wow, I'm not impressed.

its Just a new data point thats all!!

[Keepitsimple]

Maybe not, but everything I've been hearing has pointed to yes.

You're plugged into a wise group. I think those back room boys are bang on - they should go for it in the fall!

Conservatives - 34%

Liberals - 28%

I think the Conservatives see a lot of dips in support and subsequent rebounding because the media jumps all over an issue, sensationalizes it, the opposition pounds the government.....and then the facts trickle out and Canadians figure out for themselves that it wasn't so bad after all.

Edited August 11, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[bloodyminded]

You're plugged into a wise group. I think those back room boys are bang on - they should go for it in the fall!

Conservatives - 34%

Liberals - 28%

I think the Conservatives see a lot of dips in support and subsequent rebounding because the media jumps all over an issue, sensationalizes it, the opposition pounds the government.....and then the facts trickle out and Canadians figure out for themselves that it wasn't so bad after all.

So..if the media didn't exist, and all the other parties didn't exist, Canadians could then objectively understand that the Conservatives are doing fine?

[Keepitsimple]

So..if the media didn't exist, and all the other parties didn't exist, Canadians could then objectively understand that the Conservatives are doing fine?

I think you've got it now.

[nicky10013]

You're plugged into a wise group. I think those back room boys are bang on - they should go for it in the fall!

Conservatives - 34%

Liberals - 28%

I think the Conservatives see a lot of dips in support and subsequent rebounding because the media jumps all over an issue, sensationalizes it, the opposition pounds the government.....and then the facts trickle out and Canadians figure out for themselves that it wasn't so bad after all.

Let's see what the next round of Ekos polling says. That being said, even with those numbers I still say go for it.

[Shakeyhands]

Let's see what the next round of Ekos polling says. That being said, even with those numbers I still say go for it.

Yup, me too. The key would be to put Harper on the defensive right away (and there is a lot to do that with) stick to policy and not let the CPC attempt to define Ignatieff or take to all the negative crap, as they do.

[capricorn]

The key would be to put Harper on the defensive right away (and there is a lot to do that with) stick to policy and not let the CPC attempt to define Ignatieff or take to all the negative crap, as they do.

You can be sure the Conservatives will go negative and attack Ignatieff. They will milk his weaknesses ad infinitum. Yes, the Liberals have lots of ammunition with which to hit the CPC. But in an election campaign, right or wrong, the focus becomes the leader.

[Jack Weber]

Yup, me too. The key would be to put Harper on the defensive right away (and there is a lot to do that with) stick to policy and not let the CPC attempt to define Ignatieff or take to all the negative crap, as they do.

What major policy initiatives are the Liberlas differing greatly from the Conservatives on?

The Liberals would do themselves a great long term favour by waiting to bring the Consewrvatives down AFTER the next budget.That's going to be a serious austerity budget,and that's when people tend to get ugly about an incumbent government.

Now,that's not because I think the Liberals will do anything differently,because they won't..It's simply tactical...

[Keepitsimple]

Has anyone seen an article in the Globe or the Star on Kevin Page's announcement that the books could be balanced as the government said? There was a link yesterday to a CTV news report in this thread but I haven't seen it in print yet. I would have thought it would have been big news since his original position hit the front pages pretty readily.

Edited August 11, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[msdogfood]

So..if the media didn't exist, and all the other parties didn't exist, Canadians could then objectively understand that the Conservatives are doing fine?

OK if your the cpc would you want to go in to an election this year with a french language group loching a charter challenge over the census?? - see backlash!!.

Edited August 12, 2010 by msdogfood

[msdogfood]

Kill post!

Thanks!

Edited August 12, 2010 by msdogfood

[PIK]

Did the polls showed mulroney at something like 20 or so %, and went on to win a huge majority. When the time comes and canadians actually start paying attention, they are not going to put iggy into power.Look at iggy in a bus in a plaid shirt , OMG he is one of us. Well he is in a bus because that is all they can afford and if he gets in charge of the challengers ,he will go back to his royal ways.

[msdogfood]

Harper keeps making stupid mistake's

[Keepitsimple]

We now know that political polls are all worthless because they are all completely voluntary.....unless you happen to believe otherwise...because after all, they are supposedly accurate to within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

Edited August 17, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[Smallc]

We now now that political polls are all worthless because they are all completely voluntary.....unless you happen to believe otherwise...because after all, they are supposedly accurate to within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

Yes, and we would hope that a census would have a much smaller margin of error.

[Keepitsimple]

Yes, and we would hope that a census would have a much smaller margin of error.

And why would it not? For these political polls (and other polls) - if someone calls, you can say "get lost" and they move along to the next person. For the Census - er, National Household Survey - at least there's a feeling of "duty" attached to it. So.....either all these polls are much more inaccurate than claimed....or the hubbub on the census is grossly inflated.

Edited August 17, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[Smallc]

Do you realize how big of a margin of error 3% 19 times out of 20 is? The census has to be far better, within tenths of a percent if not hundredths, in order for the data to be useful.

Edited August 17, 2010 by Smallc

[Michael Hardner]

Do you realize how big of a margin of error 3% 19 times out of 20 is? The census has to be far better, within tenths of a percent if not hundredths, in order for the data to be useful.

I disagree. If temperature forecasts were correct within 3% 19/20 that would be useful, why not polling ? It tells us whose messages are resonating.

[Smallc]

I disagree. If temperature forecasts were correct within 3% 19/20 that would be useful, why not polling ? It tells us whose messages are resonating.

It is useful for polling. It isn't useful for a census.

[M.Dancer]

It is useful for polling. It isn't useful for a census.

The long form is nothing more than a poll....with similar margins for error.