Peak Oil Is Here!

geoffrey · August 25, 2006

Done and done. Oil isn't running out while we are alive. Or ever.

Geofrey wasnt paying attention when they covered peak oil in intro Geology if he thinks it means we are running out of oil.

Every year we produce and use more oil than the previous year - thats not necessarily going to stop soon but that oil is going to get more expensive to produce. Just look at the what it would cost to produce a tar sands barrel. If natural gas prices jump, that estimated cost also goes up too.

In terms of investment, that doesnt even mean the oil companies are going to get higher profits. Their profits may stay at roughly the same exhorbitant rate - or even go down. It's the production cost that will drive the price so high.

The production costs are NOT driving oil prices up!!! This is pure demand pull, people are idiots and use too much.

The costs of oil sands oil has gone down considerably with capital projects finally completing and natural gas prices dropping considerably. The cost of oil is significantly less than half of the price you pay, consumers set the price of oil.

Those people at work that go rush to fill up because the media man says that prices are going up tomorrow... those are the people to blame. We have a long long time before oil companies have to increase prices to cover costs my friend. We'll have other energy by then, maybe 300 years from now.

BubberMiley · August 25, 2006

We have a long long time before oil companies have to increase prices to cover costs my friend.

Are you psychic? Are you saying the tar sands are not more expensive than conventional methods of drawing oil?

While I would be more than happy to accept reassurance that this will only be a problem for distant generations, given that one post ago you thought that peak oil meant the end of the world's oil supply, I wonder whether you have a clue what you're talking about.

Leafless · August 25, 2006

The production costs are NOT driving oil prices up!!! This is pure demand pull, people are idiots and use too much.
The costs of oil sands oil has gone down considerably with capital projects finally completing and natural gas prices dropping considerably. The cost of oil is significantly less than half of the price you pay, consumers set the price of oil.

Those people at work that go rush to fill up because the media man says that prices are going up tomorrow... those are the people to blame. We have a long long time before oil companies have to increase prices to cover costs my friend. We'll have other energy by then, maybe 300 years from now.

How one hand you can say we will never run out of oil or have an infinite supply and the blame consumers for setting the price of oil.

Would the answer not be if the demand is there to build more REFINERIES?

You say natural gas prices are dropping considerably when the U.S. is facing a severe shortage and Canadians paying more than ever before.

Everything you say is unsubstantiated and it seems is based soley on your logic which supports your polluting Alberta based oil industry.

Black Dog · August 25, 2006

Why do so many arguments around oil involve the assumption of a stable marketplace and a childlake faith in technology? First: the global free market as we know it has been around for less than 60 years, thanks in part to the relative ease and affordability of oil (which makes transport easier) and a stable global environment for western capital. If the oil supply starts to get squeezed, I expect we'll see things revert to the prewar status quo, with regional powers taking direct control of strategic resources.

As for the magic pixie dust that will render oil irrelevant, IMV, there's nothing on the horizon that can replace oil. For the past 100 years, we've built our society around the stuff, sliding one or anothe ralternatives in won't take up the slack. It won't take much of a shove to knock us for a loop: look at the 1973 oil crisis (an artifical constraint on supply) the effects of which are still being felt today.

geoffrey · August 26, 2006

Would the answer not be if the demand is there to build more REFINERIES?

Yup, building more refineries would be the solution, and finding ways to pump more out of the ground I guess. Or people just not using as much gas...

Cheap gas isn't always desirable in many cases, governments probably prefer the increase pump revenues and hands off approach to reducing emissions.

You say natural gas prices are dropping considerably when the U.S. is facing a severe shortage and Canadians paying more than ever before.

That's because I'm right. Natural gas prices have declined this year. You frankly have no idea what your talking about. Look here, http://www.torontogasprices.com/natgas_chart.aspx, there's a one year index of gas prices. Oil prices haven't changed in sync with those costs, so obviously cost of production isn't as major a factor in oil prices as you think.

So in the real world, gas prices are declining. If your not getting that amount cut off your bill, and paying "more than ever before", then take it up with your utility company because they are the ones screwing you.

Everything you say is unsubstantiated and it seems is based soley on your logic which supports your polluting Alberta based oil industry.

Like what? I've substantiated all my claims. You couldn't even take the time to look to see if Natural gas was actually declining (which it is) before getting all upset and calling me a fool. Oh well.

August1991 · August 26, 2006

Why do so many arguments around oil involve the assumption of a stable marketplace and a childlake faith in technology?

Stable marketplace or new technology, it comes down to a question of price. If the market doesn't work well, or there's no new technology, the price will rise.

Europeans pay around $2 per litre for gasoline and their civilization hasn't collapsed.

BubberMiley · August 26, 2006

Europeans pay around $2 per litre for gasoline and their civilization hasn't collapsed.

$2 a litre is nothing.

August1991 · August 26, 2006

Europeans pay around $2 per litre for gasoline and their civilization hasn't collapsed.

$2 a litre is nothing.

A gasoline price in Canada of $2 per litre would correspond roughly to a world oil price of around $170 per barrel.

Such a price would provoke many changes.

BubberMiley · August 26, 2006

Such a price would provoke many changes.

"Would/will": I guess we'll have to wait and see.

August1991 · October 20, 2006

Am I wrong if I note that I see fewer references to "Peak Oil"?

Is this a "conspiracy theory" issue?

Leafless · October 20, 2006

Am I wrong if I note that I see fewer references to "Peak Oil"?

Yes.

There are many countries that have already reached their peak oil production.

The time the world will run out of oil to meet international demand is between 2010-2020.

http://www.theinsider.org/news/article.asp?id=0423

BubberMiley · October 20, 2006

Am I wrong if I note that I see fewer references to "Peak Oil"?
Is this a "conspiracy theory" issue?

Do you think there is an unlimited supply and it will never peak? Do you think it's just a conspiracy that fossil fuels are a limited resource?

How about the fact that oil production in the U.S. peaked in the early 70s? Is that all an elaborate ruse? There never were a lot of references to peak oil because the last thing the oil companies want is for people to think about alternatives. That would cut into their profits in the short term, and they want to keep their junkies dependent on them as long as possible.

Go get your fix.

theloniusfleabag · October 24, 2006

Dear Leafless,

The time the world will run out of oil to meet international demand is between 2010-2020.

Possibly. There are lots of deposits still available for exploitation, but recovery costs are too high right now. The oil sands in Alberta are an example of rising prices making once unreasonable developments possible.

From "The History of the Earth's Crust" Prentice-Hall, (1984) pg 168...

The world's largest single petroleum reserve, the Green River Formation...is in the form of 'oil shale'... the richest yielding 75 gallons per ton of shale.....In the Piceance Basin of Colorado alone those shales that assay 15 or more gallons of oil per ton contain a total of 900 billion barrels of oil. In comparison, the total reserves and estimated undiscovered resources of conventional petroleum remaining in the United States are estimated to be 140 billion barrels. One day the Green River shales may be exploited for their petroleum on a large scale.

Charles Anthony · October 24, 2006

Do you think there is an unlimited supply and it will never peak? Do you think it's just a conspiracy that fossil fuels are a limited resource?

You do not understand the difference between geology and economics.

However, you are starting to think...

How about the fact that oil production in the U.S. peaked in the early 70s? Is that all an elaborate ruse?

Your example demonstrates the fallacy of Peak Oil Hullabaloo economic theory -- and you can not even see it. We may as well discuss why the sky is blue. Your answer would be: "The clouds blew away -- therefore, the sky is blue!"

There never were a lot of references to peak oil because the last thing the oil companies want is for people to think about alternatives.

That is not the reason. The reason is because ignorant people did not fabricate the Hullabaloo theory yet.

That would cut into their profits in the short term, and they want to keep their junkies dependent on them as long as possible.Go get your fix.

You are kidding. Those profit motives always existed.

LonJowett · October 24, 2006

You do not understand the difference between geology and economics.

You odn't understand the relationship between geology and economics.

Charles Anthony · October 24, 2006

Let me clarify: anybody who promotes Peak Oil Hullabaloo does not even know any economics.

BubberMiley · April 21, 2008

Let me clarify: anybody who promotes Peak Oil Hullabaloo does not even know any economics.

At $117 a barrel, nobody has convinced me yet that the peak hasn't already come and gone.

Would you sell something now for $100 if you knew that next year, you could sell it for $300? Please don't tell me that the oil company managers are short-sighted or stupid.

In the short time since this was written, the price of oil has doubled.

Edited April 21, 2008 by BubberMiley

Leafless · April 21, 2008

At $117 a barrel, nobody has convinced me yet that the peak hasn't already come and gone.
In the short time since this was written, the price of oil has doubled.

Thanks to the ever expanding global economy.

And no thanks to the dough heads that thought that one up.

Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.

Edited April 21, 2008 by Leafless

GostHacked · April 22, 2008

Peak oil has nothing to do with running out of oil. Nothing! It has to do with a peak in production. It means the end of cheap oil, a phenomenon even a person who hasn't taken intro to Economics can see is already beginning to happen. As lonjowett said, after the peak, the oil is deeper and more difficult and expensive to get. I'm not sure what people's motives are in repeatedly trying to portray it as the end of oil.

More or less it will be the end of the Oil Age.

In a nutshell, the world's industrial machinery is largely dominant by using oil in many different ways. The military also uses an insane amount of energy to be constantly on some kind of alert status. Without all this oil to keep the machines working, it will all come to a stand still very quick. With the rising cost of oil, it is more expensive to run these machines. Companies are going to see profit margins dwindle over time and will end up going out of business or laying off large portions of the workforce. The economic downturn alone by this can set world economics to a halt. Technological progress will slow to a crawl if not crash all together. Energy is going to become very expensive. As a result, everything you purchase is going to increase in price as well. Food, clothing, entertainment. All will become more expensive to purchase. You are not going to be lax with the money once you discover your dollar does not go as far.

EDIT

I would like to add this point here as well, that argicultral is going to take a large hit in food production because of the rising cost in fuel. Farmers go bankrupt and no longer can afford to farm. No farm, no food. Expensive as hell and becomming scarce.

edit

I know there are huge oil reserves around the world, and since the populations of some countries and the demand for better living bring us into the situation we have in the Middle East right now. It is about claiming resources. I do propose that we use the rest of this cheap/not so cheap oil to discover new ways of generating cheap abundant energy. We can invest tonnes of money into solar and wind power with battery storage ect ... not to mention a house that can be self sufficient and not rely on the power grid.

The Alberta oil sands are not the answer. We are using far more energy to extract the oil out of the ground. Resulting in a huge net loss of useable energy. So not only are we going to possibly see the end of the Oil Age, we might see the end of the 'age' of some other common energy sources we use today.

Charles Anthony

Let me clarify: anybody who promotes Peak Oil Hullabaloo does not even know any economics.

I don't understand economics on the whole at all, it all really confuses me. However, one does not need to know economics to understand that without oil and gas, the machine stops. Seems pretty straight forward to me there.

QUOTE(August1991 @ Aug 24 2006, 02:22 PM) *
Would you sell something now for $100 if you knew that next year, you could sell it for $300? Please don't tell me that the oil company managers are short-sighted or stupid.

..

In the short time since this was written, the price of oil has doubled.

And I project it will double, if not tripple the current price in about the same time frame.

Edited April 22, 2008 by GostHacked

August1991 · April 22, 2008

In the short time since this was written, the price of oil has doubled.

Yes, and it was about $100/barrel (in inflation-corrected terms) in 1980 and then it was $10/barrel as recently as 1998.

Bubbler, if you're so smart and so convinced of your peak oil theory, I suggest you speculate in oil futures. Some advice though: it's not a place for the vague and uncertain.

Here are the future prices for crude to June 2009.

WIP · April 22, 2008

Yes, and it was about $100/barrel (in inflation-corrected terms) in 1980 and then it was $10/barrel as recently as 1998.
Bubbler, if you're so smart and so convinced of your peak oil theory, I suggest you speculate in oil futures. Some advice though: it's not a place for the vague and uncertain.

Here are the future prices for crude to June 2009.

Since we're dealing with a finite resource, this issue depends on more than the typical price fluctuations of supply and demand. Have you noticed how Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers are finding excuses to explain why they can't increase production to fully cash in on this windfall? That's what happened back in the late 70's to drive prices back down; OPEC producers started cheating and selling more than they were allotted by their quotas. It begs the question: why are they holding back this time unless their real oil reserves are less than they are claiming?

Leafless · April 22, 2008

Yes, and it was about $100/barrel (in inflation-corrected terms) in 1980 and then it was $
Here are the future prices for crude to June 2009.

Actually, if you had bothered to scroll down the chart it gives estimates to December, 2016.

They predict for that month, gas at a high of 109.16.

This should be interesting.

I am just wondering if we will have any planet left at that time, much less oil.

Edited April 22, 2008 by Leafless

GostHacked · April 22, 2008

Actually, if you had bothered to scroll down the chart it gives estimates to December, 2016.
They predict for that month, gas at a high of 109.16.

This should be interesting.

I am just wondering if we will have any planet left at that time, much less oil.

That chart looks out of step to me as well. For the next year it should hover around $109 a barrel?? I can see it going over $120 by the summer. Considering how much it has increased in the last year.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_inc...es_of_2004-2006

Oil started 2007 very low, about $50/barrel. In 2006, oil prices seemed to have peaked in the late summer at about $75/barrel. And it does not make much of a difference even when you do not take inflation into account.

By 2010, I expect oil to double the current price.

White Doors · April 23, 2008

I am just wondering if we will have any planet left at that time, much less oil.

Correct. No planet left in 2016. we are all goners!

Leafless · April 23, 2008

Correct. No planet left in 2016. we are all goners!

Do I have to spell everthing out for you 1st grade Liberals who think you living in a world of everlasting, perpetual goodness and equality.

Coupled with the threat of a world war, major disease, natural catastrophe, anarchy, socidal breakdown, etc., this is not being unreasonable.

I never did say we would al be goners, but there is a distinct possibility the lives we live to-day will be forever altered for the worst by the year 2016.

Edited April 23, 2008 by Leafless