Peak Oil Is Here!

[Mad_Michael]

That chart looks out of step to me as well. For the next year it should hover around $109 a barrel?? I can see it going over $120 by the summer. Considering how much it has increased in the last year.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_inc...es_of_2004-2006

Oil started 2007 very low, about $50/barrel. In 2006, oil prices seemed to have peaked in the late summer at about $75/barrel. And it does not make much of a difference even when you do not take inflation into account.

By 2010, I expect oil to double the current price.

The benchmark oil price went above $120 last week.

I have no doubt we will see $200 oil two years from now as the reality of our 'oil problem' is just beginning to actually hit the markets with world oil demand now reaching parity with an apparent ceiling in oil production (in the 86-89 million barrels per day zone). I see no reason to expect any increase in oil production over the short to medium term above this level. World demand growth for oil has actually been rising lately above 2% per year...

Sure as heck looks like we are getting darn close to 'the peak', if we are not perhaps on top of it already. The market is screaming out signals for more supply right now.

Edited May 8, 2008 by Mad_Michael

[August1991]

I have no doubt we will see $200 oil two years from now as the reality of our 'oil problem' is just beginning to actually hit the markets with world oil demand now reaching parity with an apparent ceiling in oil production (in the 86-89 million barrels per day zone). I see no reason to expect any increase in oil production over the short to medium term above this level. World demand growth for oil has actually been rising lately above 2% per year...

Sure as heck looks like we are getting darn close to 'the peak', if we are not perhaps on top of it already. The market is screaming out signals for more supply right now.

If you really believe that, I suggest you invest in oil futures. Put your money where your thoughts are because otherwise, it is just empty blather.

The price of oil peaked at $100/barrel in 1980 and then fell to $10/barrel in 1998 (in real terms). Unlike Internet forums, the world oil market is not for the faint-hearted.

Here is a graph showing the long term evolution of the price of oil. Draw what conclusion you wish.

Actually, if you had bothered to scroll down the chart it gives estimates to December, 2016.

Oops.

Leafless, again, if you disagrees, buy a few contracts and become very, very rich.

It begs the question: why are they holding back this time unless their real oil reserves are less than they are claiming?

Uh, they're better organized this time? It takes time for a cartel to unravel? Dunno.

In the meantime, Canadians should enjoy their undeserved wealth.

Edited May 8, 2008 by August1991

[Mad_Michael]

If you really believe that, I suggest you invest in oil futures. Put your money where your thoughts are because otherwise, it is just empty blather.

I should have expected such trash-talking crap from August1991. You are at least keeping in character.

I haven't been around this forum much due to the high number of toxic posters at this forum.

I dropped by and made a few posts just to see if this forum was still as toxic, hyper-partisan and low-quality as it has been in the past.

Apparently it is.

Thanks for the reminder. No use wasting effort to type words at this forum with the likes of you still hanging around.

[Army Guy]

dropped by and made a few posts just to see if this forum was still as toxic, hyper-partisan and low-quality as it has been in the past.

I guess i must be one of those toxic posters as well, i happen put a high value on Augusts opinon. In fact i'd go as far as saying most people on this forum are good people with good intentions.

Can't really contribute if all you got is personal attacks....

[HisSelf]

The sun beats down energy on our planet every day. Oil is stored energy from the sun. We also have wind and light. Like the energizer bunny, it just keeps on coming. The great thing about wind is that the more unstable the climate becomes, the more wind we get. And it doesn't pollute!

Edited May 9, 2008 by HisSelf

[Leafless]

The price of oil peaked at $100/barrel in 1980 and then fell to $10/barrel in 1998 (in real terms). Unlike Internet forums, the world oil market is not for the faint-hearted.

This is the result of the 1973 oil embargo coupled with increases in Arab oil.

Conditions to-day are totally different, namely TRUE supply vs. demand.

Peak oil is real.

And new 'hard to get at' oil is very expensive.

Edited May 9, 2008 by Leafless

[Pliny]

This is the result of the 1973 oil embargo coupled with increases in Arab oil.

Conditions to-day are totally different, namely TRUE supply vs. demand.

Peak oil is real.

And new 'hard to get at' oil is very expensive.

We better get on with finding alternative energies then. Wringing our hands and paying carbon taxes is not the solution.

In the meantime why not take Augusts advice? It's a sure thing with peak oil looming.

[Leafless]

In the meantime why not take Augusts advice? It's a sure thing with peak oil looming.

This is to risky with a declining economy, which in itself could automatically cap demand.

[Oleg Bach]

This is to risky with a declining economy, which in itself could automatically cap demand.

When the economy declines..it is actually soaring and booming! - some one is sucking up all the money and it is not us. Actually on the other hand think of what a barrel of oil really is. Imagine a barrel of crude. Black thick sludge that is drawn up by a pipe going a mile down in some cases..that's pretty remarkable...Is the stuff worth 300 dollars a barrel? Damn right it is! It's a feat bordering on being a miracle when you come to think of it...YOU go and try to suck up a barrel of energy ladden sludge from a mile down..here is your hose and your spade..now start digging. Oil is a miracle and to dawn a shell called a car around your body AND roar about the world at 120 K at will is magical...It would not be unreasonable to charge 1000 dollars a barrel!

[Leafless]

When the economy declines..it is actually soaring and booming! - some one is sucking up all the money and it is not us. Actually on the other hand think of what a barrel of oil really is. Imagine a barrel of crude. Black thick sludge that is drawn up by a pipe going a mile down in some cases..that's pretty remarkable...Is the stuff worth 300 dollars a barrel? Damn right it is! It's a feat bordering on being a miracle when you come to think of it...YOU go and try to suck up a barrel of energy ladden sludge from a mile down..here is your hose and your spade..now start digging. Oil is a miracle and to dawn a shell called a car around your body AND roar about the world at 120 K at will is magical...It would not be unreasonable to charge 1000 dollars a barrel!

My reply was regarding future oil contracts and ignores high increases in the price of a barrel of oil.

For instance, electric cars could be 'very in' tomorrow.

Or a declining economy where most people decide to park their cars and use public transportation.

Just think how this alone would affect future demand and money to be 'not be made', on a future oil contract based on a dramatic increase on a barrel of oil.

Edited May 10, 2008 by Leafless

[Oleg Bach]

My reply was regarding future oil contracts and ignores high increases in the price of a barrel of oil.

For instance, electric cars could be 'very in' tomorrow.

Or a declining economy where most people decide to park their cars and use public transportation.

Just think how this alone would affect future demand and money to be 'not be made', on a future oil contract based on a dramatic increase on a barrel of oil.

Big problem - big nation - huge family slave buisness - CHINA! We could do what is right here but they over there want want we had in 1956. We could go completely green in the west and the black cloud of industrial filth would still blow from the east to the west..so that part is a dilema. Frankly speaking I saw a woman on her electic motorcycle in front of the hardware store. She was dressed in a sheik manner - ridding boots and a great jacket. I heard her mention to a friend that if she plugs in her bike she is good for the whole day...and it was a great looking machine also - nothing to be ashamed of.

My older brother is a car culture guy. He just came into a lot of money and lives a rural existance and dives every where as if he is in a damned wheel chair. He is bloated and very unhealthy. I on the other hand walk...to where ever I need to go. I have lost weight..look good - and my hip does not ache since I shed the 20 pounds of fat accumulated during my car driving days...what I am finding is that you can shift and it is not just a fashionable "in" thing - like the canary in the coal mine - I have survived on next to nothing depending on my experience and intelligence...don't get me wrong - I adore cars...but I really don't need one...as for the rich country brother..he really does not need a car to go to work - he really does not need the money - but he sufferers from a disease called greed that is killing him...I like life - apparently he likes his car more!

[Pliny]

This is to risky with a declining economy, which in itself could automatically cap demand.

On the free market it is not a risk at all. It is a sure thing. I don't know what you mean by "automatically cap demand".

I do however, see a risk of government intervention in the form of wage and price controls, some form of rationing or, heaven forbid, nationalization of the oil industry. All not healthy to investment.

[Pliny]

Big problem - big nation - huge family slave buisness - CHINA! We could do what is right here but they over there want want we had in 1956. We could go completely green in the west and the black cloud of industrial filth would still blow from the east to the west..so that part is a dilema. Frankly speaking I saw a woman on her electic motorcycle in front of the hardware store. She was dressed in a sheik manner - ridding boots and a great jacket. I heard her mention to a friend that if she plugs in her bike she is good for the whole day...and it was a great looking machine also - nothing to be ashamed of.

My older brother is a car culture guy. He just came into a lot of money and lives a rural existance and dives every where as if he is in a damned wheel chair. He is bloated and very unhealthy. I on the other hand walk...to where ever I need to go. I have lost weight..look good - and my hip does not ache since I shed the 20 pounds of fat accumulated during my car driving days...what I am finding is that you can shift and it is not just a fashionable "in" thing - like the canary in the coal mine - I have survived on next to nothing depending on my experience and intelligence...don't get me wrong - I adore cars...but I really don't need one...as for the rich country brother..he really does not need a car to go to work - he really does not need the money - but he sufferers from a disease called greed that is killing him...I like life - apparently he likes his car more!

Sounds like his life is his car, Oleg. Sounds like yours is your experience and your intelligence.

[Leafless]

On the free market it is not a risk at all. It is a sure thing. I don't know what you mean by "automatically cap demand".

(a) What major factor controls commodities on the free market.

( The free market does not set oil prices, Arab producing countries do.

I do however, see a risk of government intervention in the form of wage and price controls, some form of rationing or, heaven forbid, nationalization of the oil industry. All not healthy to investment.

GOOD.

[Pliny]

(a) What major factor controls commodities on the free market.

Supply and demand are the main controllers of commodity production. If demand will provide a profit above the cost of production then someone will probably supply it.

( The free market does not set oil prices, Arab producing countries do.

Who sets Venezuela's prices. Does Canada set her prices? Or is it set by oil producers? Who sets American prices?

The free market is hampered by government intervention but supply and demand are still the dominant factors.

No one will produce something if there is no advantage in doing so.

Arab producing countries wish to sell their oil; that is the bottom line. They may set the price but they don't "control" the price. They sell it for the best price they can get. If it is too high the buyer will start looking elsewhere such as in the Alberta oil sands. If the price is too low they will deplete their resources more quickly. The price of oil in 1980 was around $100 a barrel then it dropped to $10 a barrel? Did the Arabs want to sell the oil for $10?

It seems that when prices are going up that someone is controlling prices but when they are going down are they controlling prices then?

Right now, I believe the price is high because refineries have not been built to keep up with demand and there is a huge increasing demand in China and India. Of course, Environmentalists and government red tape kept refineries from being built. The result is the price is high. Environmentalists should be happy as those high prices will marginalize those that can't afford to pay them. They make the poor poorer by making them less mobile. The rich will complain or be morally conscious and drive hybrids but they will still drive around. The rest of us will have to take the bus or bike it. Now the complaint is the widening gap between rich and poor.

[Leafless]

Arab producing countries wish to sell their oil; that is the bottom line. They may set the price but they don't "control" the price. They sell it for the best price they can get. If it is too high the buyer will start looking elsewhere such as in the Alberta oil sands. If the price is too low they will deplete their resources more quickly. The price of oil in 1980 was around $100 a barrel then it dropped to $10 a barrel? Did the Arabs want to sell the oil for $10?

The Iranian revolution and MENA competition contributed to that temporary, drastic drop.

It seems that when prices are going up that someone is controlling prices but when they are going down are they controlling prices then?

Right now, I believe the price is high because refineries have not been built to keep up with demand and there is a huge increasing demand in China and India. Of course, Environmentalists and government red tape kept refineries from being built. The result is the price is high. Environmentalists should be happy as those high prices will marginalize those that can't afford to pay them. They make the poor poorer by making them less mobile. The rich will complain or be morally conscious and drive hybrids but they will still drive around. The rest of us will have to take the bus or bike it. Now the complaint is the widening gap between rich and poor.

Why should more refineries be built since there is no more oil to refine.

Future oil exploration, also an environmental issue, is something else and needless to say, hard to get at oil will result in higher prices still.

[Pliny]

The Iranian revolution and MENA competition contributed to that temporary, drastic drop.

Competition? What more need be said?

Why should more refineries be built since there is no more oil to refine.

You know this for certain? Was it in the news? In 1979 we were supposed to be out of oil by the year 2000. The latest prediction I have heard, and that was today, is 2040 but only if technology and consumption remain static.

Future oil exploration, also an environmental issue, is something else and needless to say, hard to get at oil will result in higher prices still.

And what is wrong with high prices? Oil corporations are making a big profit? Governments are raking in billions from oil production? People are getting gouged? Well, I believe there is a shortage right now, for whatever reason but many people are changing their driving habits, or so I have heard, and are serious about reducing their carbon footprint. Once the demand drops the price will come down. Don't you think? Many environmentalists, and I am certain government will agree with them, believe that the price should stay up. Governments will happily oblige and increase taxes on oil and gas. Just like the 7 or 8 percent special interest minority wants. Sorry if you are part of the majority and you are not getting the things you want from government - like lower gas prices.

I think that you either believe prices are being manipulated and not subject to any market influences whatsoever or you would like them to be manipulated but in your favor. I assume you are not owner of an oil corporation but do own a car and would like lower prices.

Edited May 14, 2008 by Pliny

[Leafless]

Competition? What more need be said?

Those days are gone forever.

OPEC is currently the strong man in the oil game supplying 40-45% of world's oil and holds the most in reserves.

Supply and demand controls the so called free market and in turn is controlled mostly by the movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the International Petroleum Exchange in London and the International Monetary Exchange.

Supply shortages is caused mostly by energy demands by China and in the West buying power is reduced by a weak U.S. dollar.

I think relating to Canada we should nationalize Canada's oil industry as Canada's energy requirements in this cold country are high and there seems to be no other alternative but to do just that or face the destruction of Canadian society.

[Pliny]

Those days are gone forever.

OPEC is currently the strong man in the oil game supplying 40-45% of world's oil and holds the most in reserves.

Supply and demand controls the so called free market and in turn is controlled mostly by the movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the International Petroleum Exchange in London and the International Monetary Exchange.

Supply shortages is caused mostly by energy demands by China and in the West buying power is reduced by a weak U.S. dollar.

I think relating to Canada we should nationalize Canada's oil industry as Canada's energy requirements in this cold country are high and there seems to be no other alternative but to do just that or face the destruction of Canadian society.

If those days are gone forever then is capitalism now non-existent? If I were to answer that question myself I would say for the most part heavy state intervention makes capitalism difficult and cultivates a form of monopolistic corporatism. Wouldn't a better solution be to bring back capitalism, as China is doing, rather than, as you recommend, create a socialist utopia, as China and Russia attempted to do?

[Leafless]

If those days are gone forever then is capitalism now non-existent?

My reply was relating to MENA competition and OPEC.

Capitalism is alive and well or are you denying that?

If I were to answer that question myself I would say for the most part heavy state intervention makes capitalism difficult and cultivates a form of monopolistic corporatism. Wouldn't a better solution be to bring back capitalism, as China is doing, rather than, as you recommend, create a socialist utopia, as China and Russia attempted to do?

China is filling a capitalist void whereas previously, investors financial expectations could not be satisfied.

But China and other major third world countries, in turn is proving to be a major energy gluten seriously affecting other countries economies, mainly Western, in different ways while becoming extremely successful at what they do.

How do you suppose Canadian society will function when oil hits $150-200- barrel in a economically depleted worn out country?

[Pliny]

Capitalism is alive and well or are you denying that?

I think I answered that. It is you who suggested that oil prices are not regulated by the supply and demand of a free market. So is it or is it not?

We do not have an honest banking system so Capitalism is severely compromised.

It is interesting to note that most of the oil in the world is owned by the State, that is, national governments, and only about 10% owned by corporations. The OPEC countries are a cartel of nation states that have nationalized their oil industry. Venezuela, Russia all have nationalized their oil industry. While billions are made by oil corporations, trillions are made by governments.

China is filling a capitalist void whereas previously, investors financial expectations could not be satisfied.

But China and other major third world countries, in turn is proving to be a major energy gluten seriously affecting other countries economies, mainly Western, in different ways while becoming extremely successful at what they do.

The Chinese government has opened up trade in China. I think it realized the socialist utopia was unattainable and no one wanted to take out the garbage without some form of recognition of hero status.

How do you suppose Canadian society will function when oil hits $150-200- barrel in a economically depleted worn out country?

The rich will get richer, the middle class and the poor will pay increased taxes and ride their bike and/or take the bus. Collective rights will override human rights. This is the direction we are headed. We don't have to go down that road but it appears to be where special interests are pushing us.

Will oil hit $150-$200/barrel? I suppose if every level of government, municipal, provincial, federal and global starts placing their own carbon taxes on our activities we will soon be there.

In a capitalist market the price of oil may go up. In this economic environment with Chinese economic expansion and increased development and consumption I would say that the demand was high so the price should be moving upward. If we in North America do not wish to pay high prices and there is a free market then it will find the highest bidder and we will be in short supply.

I have a feeling though that things don't remain static. We could come across some really innovative technology in the near future - fueled by high gas prices, of course!

[Leafless]

I think I answered that. It is you who suggested that oil prices are not regulated by the supply and demand of a free market. So is it or is it not?

Arab oil producing countries set prices but are further manipulated by the SO-CALLED free market:

Supply and demand controls the SO CALLED free (freer) and is controlled mostly by the movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the International Petroleum Exchange in London and the International Monetary Exchange

I have a feeling though that things don't remain static. We could come across some really innovative technology in the near future - fueled by high gas prices, of course!

Well, there is large scale nuclear energy but this could place the country at risk by potential terrorist activities as well as accidental mishaps.

I say in lieu of everything we should switch back to coal for heating incorporating air scrubbers to somewhat lessen pollution and nationalize our oil industry, using refined gas and diesel fuel for transportation purposes.

Realistically there is no cheaper alternative energy technology available.

We currently need ANY alternative energy plan, NOW.

Edited May 15, 2008 by Leafless

[M.Dancer]

Arab oil producing countries set prices but are further manipulated by the SO-CALLED free market:

Ummmm ...no they don't. Even OPEC doesn't set prices....although through controlling how much they produce they influence prices.

Of the 13 OPEC nations, only 6 are Arabs.....

[Pliny]

Ummmm ...no they don't. Even OPEC doesn't set prices....although through controlling how much they produce they influence prices.

Of the 13 OPEC nations, only 6 are Arabs.....

and.....how much they produce is how much they can sell and how much they can make, or dare I say the word, "profit". So basically they are regulating, if they are indeed regulating anything, their own income. Ees thees not so?

[M.Dancer]

and.....how much they produce is how much they can sell and how much they can make, or dare I say the word, "profit". So basically they are regulating, if they are indeed regulating anything, their own income. Ees thees not so?

They are regulating themselves, true ...but given that OPEC produces about 40% of the global output of oil, they do not control the price, they can only influence the global price.