Liberal Party Takes Lead in Polls

[Army Guy]

4 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

Why do you hate the military so much?

I don't hate the military, it has given me everything i have today,my career, my wife, my family, even my wealth if you can call it that...

What i don't like is some politician or group blowing smoke up my arse to get a few votes....Canadians have spoken on our military for decades, and while my dream is to have Canada spend 2 % GDP....spending 5 % is a pipe dream...or as i said before smoke up my arse...and this guy is doing just that to get a few votes, and take advantage of your vote...I mean lets be realistic here for a centrist he is coloring outside the lines a lot. 

[Army Guy]

4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

One of the best photo-ops for a campaign comes when you reluctantly pause it to do serious prime ministerial things and defend the nation from a foreign foe:

https://globalnews.ca/news/11125232/donald-trump-tariffs-canada-election-campaign/

Sure, he is ducking the media for a few days, he is taking off the long weekend, and you're joking about tariffs, right Trump has no new tariffs on Canada....he is not defending anyone right now....

 

Edited Saturday at 03:35 AM by Army Guy

[Goddess]

They're trying the abortion issue......again.

This is a good sign the Liberals know they're in trouble.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

 

Give me lucky generals, as Napoleon is supposed to have said. 

Many military men have said similar things over the years. I'd rather be lucky than talented is a common statement.

And certainly in military campaigns this is proven true . People talk about Hitler weather for example where he just seemed to catch every break in the beginning of his campaigns.

But the winds are turning on Carney. He is beginning to drop, his best days are probably behind him unless trump does something that makes him look great again, people are beginning to smell a rat with the whole chinese thing and you see it more and more, he's looking worse and worse in front of the press who are now asking harder and harder questions, he still has the debates where he is not favored to do well, and there is a strong undertone that just can't be denied that says he's not doing as well as he thinks he is and Poilievre is doing better than we think he is.

There's no doubt the momentum has shifted and the debates are usually where we see momentum amplified and those that have strong momentum going into it tend to all of a sudden do very well and those who had negative momentum going into it tend to do very badly unless there is a gotcha moment or some strong knockout punch. And both jag need and Poilievre will be gunning for Kearney and trying to P*ss him off and get him to react

Sometimes you have to make your own luck. We'll see if Carney's run out or if trump throws him another lifeline

1 hour ago, Goddess said:

They're trying the abortion issue......again.

This is a good sign the Liberals know they're in trouble.

It's an even better sign that they're cracking it this early. Their internal polling must be telling them that they've lost momentum and their concerned

[Barquentine]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

he (Carney) still has the debates where he is not favored to do well

I thought that too at first, but now I don't believe the debates will matter much. People are mostly locked in, Quebec will be forgiving of Carney's French, Quebecers won't switch over to Poilevre or Singh, maybe the Bloc gets a small bump...

And outside of the west, Poilevre is not going to be the majority choice. If he were to be, it would have shown by now. Unfortunately for the Cons, he's a one-trick pony.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Barquentine said:

I thought that too at first, but now I don't believe the debates will matter much. People are mostly locked in,

The polling in the evidence so far suggests that is absolutely not the truth even remotely.

First off Kearney started off with an 11-point spread and that is already shrunk to between four and six. People are changing their minds already.

Further polling a few days ago suggested that a huge percentage of Canadians is going to make up their mind in the last 72 hours. And that the current political climate they find themselves in is highly subject to change. The conservative core base is locked in, but the rest of the conservative support and the vast majority of the liberal support is extremely soft and capable of change.

Furthermore, almost delivery election we see the same pattern. Day one you have the polls, and they will make small changes between day one and the debates but generally speaking don't make radical changes at all and offense stay stagnant. So the call of the election is the first time people get serious about thinking about who they would vote for.

Then the debates. And very frequently although not always you will see another major adjustment. We saw this in the last election where there are no tool was leading trudeau and then after the debates his numbers began to fall substantially

Most of the time the debates are the second point where voters are likely to have a sudden change in opinion. Usually kicks in about 4 days after the debate and then we see where it goes from there.

And then there is the weekend before the actual election. Most of the time we see that the party that has momentum going into that weekend, let's say even the Thursday, we'll pick up a point or two or three and the one that is not will lose a point or two or three.

 

And I'm fairly confident that's how it's going to play out in this election. At the moment the conservatives have picked up momentum. If they go into the debate with momentum and perform well that will be big trouble for Carney. However if Kearney goes into the debates with momentum, let's say because trump interferes with Canada again just before the debates and announces a new tariff or something, then that made very well steal the thunder from the conservatives and as long as carney doesn't fall flat on his face he could survive and we would be probably looking at a minority liberal government.

We shall see how it plays out

[SpankyMcFarland]

Basically, Carney has to avoid some gruesome verbal pile-up en français. Expectations are in the basement for him already. 

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Basically, Carney has to avoid some gruesome verbal pile-up en français. Expectations are in the basement for him already. 

Well that's the real problem that PP faces. Back in 2015 the expectations were so low for Justin and so high for harper that as one reporter put it at the time basically if he shows up with pants on he wins.

Poilievre is so favored to do well that unless he does incredibly well he's going to look bad, nearly doing well would be underperforming.

It will be interesting to see if carney rises to the bait, and how effective Poilievre is at baiting him. A frustrated carney does not look good.

The other interesting dynamic is that we can expect the NDP and the block both to be going after carney more than the conservatives. Jaggers has figured out he isn't going to win the prime minister's seat and pretending that he's there to keep the conservatives in check is pointless. And the block has figured out that the liberals are set to eat their lunch if they don't start winning some voters back.

So it will be interesting to see how he handles the attacks on all side.

[CouchPotato]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Basically, Carney has to avoid some gruesome verbal pile-up en français. Expectations are in the basement for him already. 

Habs season finale tomorrow night, and they might have to win to ensure they get into the playoffs. That could have an effect on debate viewership. If Columbus loses tonight against Philly that means the Habs are in and tomorrow night's game is less important.

Edited 19 hours ago by CouchPotato

[CdnFox]

37 minutes ago, CouchPotato said:

Habs season finale tomorrow night, and they might have to win to ensure they get into the playoffs. That could have an effect on debate viewership. If Columbus loses tonight against Philly that means the Habs are in and tomorrow night's game is less important.

They changed the time to accommodate the game. The debate will now be held earlier

[CouchPotato]

2 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

They changed the time to accommodate the game. The debate will now be held earlier

Oh, I hadn't heard that. I am keeping an eye on the score in the Columbus game tonight because I am Habs fan. Though even if they make it in the playoffs, I am sure they will be out in 4 games.

[CdnFox]

33 minutes ago, CouchPotato said:

Oh, I hadn't heard that. I am keeping an eye on the score in the Columbus game tonight because I am Habs fan. Though even if they make it in the playoffs, I am sure they will be out in 4 games.

Apparently a bunch of the Quebec politicians wrote in to the commission. The letter reportedly began "Dear Stupid....."

[CouchPotato]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Apparently a bunch of the Quebec politicians wrote in to the commission. The letter reportedly began "Dear Stupid....."

Only in Quebec.

[eyeball]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

So it will be interesting to see how he handles the attacks on all side.

If it's just troll bait he'll probably roll his eyes and tell them all to grow up.

[Legato]

11 minutes ago, eyeball said:

If it's just troll bait he'll probably roll his eyes and tell them all to grow up.

That would be like a six year old telling his dad which wrench to use.

[eyeball]

2 minutes ago, Legato said:

That would be like a six year old telling his dad which wrench to use.

If you're suggesting a six year old could outperform Carney's opponents I wouldn't be surprised if he does.

[Legato]

45 minutes ago, eyeball said:

If you're suggesting a six year old could outperform Carney's opponents I wouldn't be surprised if he does.

No not suggesting, that's your suggestion

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, eyeball said:

If it's just troll bait he'll probably roll his eyes and tell them all to grow up.

He will lose the election if he does that. People will point out if he becomes frustrated and intolerant with the likes of Blanchette he'll have no chance against trump and it will make him look unable to cope

He needs to come across as the patient adult. That's his whole stick,"I'm boring and I'm calm and your life will be too even though trump threatens us". 

He can't just blow off questions like he did with reporters. You can't afford to become frustrated when they ask him stuff he doesn't like. I'm sure he's been training very hard for this so he's got to be ready for it to a degree but I'm sure it will be difficult