LATEST NANOS NOV 10: CPC 40, LPC 22, NDP 20. NDP opposition?

[CdnFox]

https://canadianpolling.ca/Canada-2021

 

SO this is the latest nanos with the latest mainstreet for comparison.  Multiple polls now have the cpc at or over 40 - so they are in very solid majority territory at the moment.

But several polls have the ndp and libs trading members.

If they go into the next election at roughly parity it'll be very interesting to see what happens.  we COULD see the second ever ndp opposition come out of it technically - but the modelling suggest if that happens the libs will be reduced to a very small number of seats and the ndp wont' have many more than they do now. They'll just win a few that they were second place to the liberals in.

Or the libs and dips could really split the vote and both crash HARD with a very very large majority for the cpc.

 What the libs will be shooting for is to get all the ndp voters to come over to their side because "only they can stop the cpc" and they'll try to use the NDP voters to stave off complete destruction of the party. We've seen this before.

The thing is this has been going on so long now that i think everyone is resigned (or excited) that it's going to be a strong cpc majority. I think the libs are going to have a voter turn out problem next election if these numbers hold - why vote if they're just going to lose anyway.

The PPC has fallen off the map. Statistically they're about at zero    Bernier will be in the next debate but i think all he's going to do is make pp look moderate.

[Jack9000]

see if he can maintain it until 2025 election

[sharkman]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

https://canadianpolling.ca/Canada-2021

 

SO this is the latest nanos with the latest mainstreet for comparison.  Multiple polls now have the cpc at or over 40 - so they are in very solid majority territory at the moment.

But several polls have the ndp and libs trading members.

If they go into the next election at roughly parity it'll be very interesting to see what happens.  we COULD see the second ever ndp opposition come out of it technically - but the modelling suggest if that happens the libs will be reduced to a very small number of seats and the ndp wont' have many more than they do now. They'll just win a few that they were second place to the liberals in.

Or the libs and dips could really split the vote and both crash HARD with a very very large majority for the cpc.

 What the libs will be shooting for is to get all the ndp voters to come over to their side because "only they can stop the cpc" and they'll try to use the NDP voters to stave off complete destruction of the party. We've seen this before.

The thing is this has been going on so long now that i think everyone is resigned (or excited) that it's going to be a strong cpc majority. I think the libs are going to have a voter turn out problem next election if these numbers hold - why vote if they're just going to lose anyway.

The PPC has fallen off the map. Statistically they're about at zero    Bernier will be in the next debate but i think all he's going to do is make pp look moderate.

The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

[CdnFox]

13 minutes ago, sharkman said:

The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

Well of course that's not true at all.

Polling is very important. That information is what leads to a positive result on polling day. It's like saying 'the only part of a map that matters is the part that shows the finish".  No - you won't get there with out the rest  

The polling we've seen this year is painting a very clear picture for Polievre. He's made the right choices and he's fine tuned his brand very nicely.  Since may hes' been climbing and been very solid, so he's seeing what works. And as i noted people have become used to the idea that he'll be prime minister and that really has an impact on the other party's voter turn out rates.

He seems so far to have capped out at about 41 percent - so even if he fluctuates a bit he can be fairly sure wiht the right actions to get back to that.

It's a shame the next eleciton is almost 2 years away (theoretically).  It could be sooner but i don't see the ndp wanting to go with those numbers.

 

[Nexii]

I think the Liberals get more seats than the NDP at these polling numbers. Liberals have strong regional support in Quebec and the NDP are more spread out.

Not that it would matter a lot, a majority is a majority. 

[QuebecOverCanada]

The Greens seem to suspiciously score high in those polls, I would discard those polls.

[Legato]

3 minutes ago, QuebecOverCanada said:

The Greens seem to suspiciously score high in those polls, I would discard those polls.

The Greens always look good in the spring, later in the year they wither and fall off the tree.

[WestCanMan]

Or Bloc Quebecois as the opposition again? 

It's not unlikely that they'll hit 50+ seats again, and if the Libs/NDP split the 'tard vote between them the PCs could clean up. 

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, Nexii said:

I think the Liberals get more seats than the NDP at these polling numbers. Liberals have strong regional support in Quebec and the NDP are more spread out.

Not that it would matter a lot, a majority is a majority. 

IF the numbers today hold that's likely true.  But - they are within the margin for being tied and it would not surprise me to see the libs freefall during an actual election

ndp supporters will ralley to the libs if they think the libs can beat the cpc - we saw that strongly in 2015. But - if its a foregon conclusion that the libs are going to lose that wont' likely happen, and we could see a lib collapse.  It's hypotheical, too far out to call it by far obviosuly - but don't be shocked.

2 hours ago, QuebecOverCanada said:

The Greens seem to suspiciously score high in those polls, I would discard those polls.

Nothing suspicious about it at all. The greens have often been a 'protest vote' for many. if you are on the left and the libs and dips are honking you off the greens are a good place to park your vote in protest.  We've seen taht before.

It doesnt' translate into seats as a rule because it tends to be widely spread out and not efficient. 

 

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Or Bloc Quebecois as the opposition again? 

 

That would be interesting too

Quote

It's not unlikely that they'll hit 50+ seats again, and if the Libs/NDP split the 'tard vote between them the PCs could clean up

If the libs collapse, and they might very well, then yeah. The ndp is nothing in quebec really, so the seats there would go to the Bloc and the cpc - and probably mostly to the bloc.

CPC majority - bock opposition - ndp third party and the libs in 4th?  That would be interesting times You'd get a three way fight in the background between the libs and ndp for the next election and the block would be eager as hell to stay relevant

[Canadian_Cavalier]

Heh, I remember when Nanos had the LPC and CPC tied a few months back.

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, Canadian_Cavalier said:

Heh, I remember when Nanos had the LPC and CPC tied a few months back.

Nanos has had the cpc far ahead of the LPC except for one outlier poll since about april or may. All the other pollsters have as well.

And now they're all polling the cpc about 15  points ahead of the libs. The libs might very well see another ignatief moment.  Or perhaps their very own kim campbell?