338 Federal Poll Tracking May 7 2023 - Conservatives would win minority gov't.

[CdnFox]

Pierre Pollivre is still slowly but surely climbing in the polls and seat counts. They would now be in a position to maintain gov't without the lib and ndp support provided they had the bloc on board.

the slow steady build up of PP and the slow steady demise of Justin should be very very concerning for the libs. This kind of thing tends to have more staying power. By the beginning of next year PP could be close to threatening a majority.  And campaigns do matter and he's likely to enter the next election with momentum.

https://338canada.com/

 

[eyeball]

Hopefully strategic voting will result in a Conservative minority government. That would be the best possible outcome from my perspective.

[CdnFox]

3 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Hopefully strategic voting will result in a Conservative minority government. That would be the best possible outcome from my perspective.

I don't think strategic voting will. It will come down to two things if anything - what happens to the libs in quebec and how many seats in the 905 they can pick up.

Momentum plays a HUGE role in most election campaigns, Theres three points where momentum can be gained or lost in the average campaign.  I suspect PP knows this well, and if he can make that work for him a majority would likely be well achievable.

Of course - still 2 years out so anything can happen.

[ExFlyer]

A minority... with the NDP in bed with the libs again.

How is that a win??

Far more has to b e done by the cons to toss Trudeau out of the mix.

[eyeball]

29 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

A minority... with the NDP in bed with the libs again.

How is that a win??

Far more has to b e done by the cons to toss Trudeau out of the mix.

No, a minority Conservative government with anyone holding the balance of power would be fine with me.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

A minority... with the NDP in bed with the libs again.

How is that a win??

Far more has to b e done by the cons to toss Trudeau out of the mix.

If the polls today were reality, it would more likely be a cpc gov't with bloc support. Probably not an actual alliance but on a case by case for confidence issues it could be made to work.

Although the libs could be expected to be browbeat into behaving for a fair while at least. They would not want to go to the polls till theyd' had a leadership convention. Harper pushed them around like a bully for years playing on that.

[Moonbox]

22 hours ago, CdnFox said:

If the polls today were reality, it would more likely be a cpc gov't with bloc support. Probably not an actual alliance but on a case by case for confidence issues it could be made to work.

Quebec is the most anti-Poilievre region in the country.  

[CdnFox]

13 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Quebec is the most anti-Poilievre region in the country.  

But the bloc and the provincial gov't are not.  And as long as they're getting what they want they'll go along nicely. the bloc is more closely aligned with the right than the left - and PP has promised to keep his mitts out of provincial business. 

Traditionally the enemy of the bloc in quebec is the libs - it will suit them to be seen as 'delivering the bacon' for the province without the libs help.  Remember the provincial quebec gov't out and out straight up endorsed the CPC last election.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Contrarian said:

Can you provide specific examples or evidence to support your claim that the Bloc and provincial governments are solely focused on getting what they want and that they are more aligned with the right than the left?

You mean other than the fact i mentioned that the quebec provincial govt' came out inl support of the CPC and not the libs last election?  Because that one is kind of a giveaway.

As to the bloc one only has to look at their voting record during the harper years. They care about getting something for quebec and they don't like the liberals. So they'll work with the cpc provided it's in their interest.

[I am Groot]

I still believe they have to get a majority or the other parties will support the Liberals. 

[CITIZEN_2015]

Not sure the poll is correct. After what this Liberal government has done ro Canada since 2015, only a minority Conservative government? Flooding the land with immigrants, mostly colored immigrants from the third world or worse, Muslim countries, driving the housing prices through the ceiling as a result of squeezing in half a million immigrants every year, high inflation, skyrocketing budget deficits and grocery prices. What else does it take?

[PIK]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Quebec is the most anti-Poilievre region in the country.  

Harper won a majority with only 5 seats in Quebec.

[PIK]

We need a huge Con majority. 

[Moonbox]

3 hours ago, PIK said:

Harper won a majority with only 5 seats in Quebec.

Two things that are different:

1)  Harper > Poilievre

2) Michael Ignatieff was a gift to every opposing party in Canada.  

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, I am Groot said:

I still believe they have to get a majority or the other parties will support the Liberals. 

that hasn't been how it is historically.  Harper ran 6 of his 9 and change years with minorities.  But it's canada, anything is possible. 

[CdnFox]

40 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Two things that are different:

1)  Harper > Poilievre

Of the two - i strongly suspect Polievre is going to be the better campaigner by far. Harper sucked at campaings.

40 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

2) Michael Ignatieff was a gift to every opposing party in Canada.  

Trudeau is a gift to every opposing party at this point. Even die hard supporters are starting to feel guilty about supporting him last election. Apparently

He's polling worse than iggy did, his track record is horrid beyond belief, people are sick of him, his hair isn't as pretty any more, and the simple fact is people are starting to go a little hungry and they're done with both the ndp and the libs, both of whom are bleeding support to the CPC.

If this keeps up, it's going to be a pretty easy win. Still - long way to election day.

[I am Groot]

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

that hasn't been how it is historically.  Harper ran 6 of his 9 and change years with minorities.  But it's canada, anything is possible. 

There's a lot more antipathy between left and right, esp on social issues. This is all American-driven but it's been echoed by the Trudeau Liberals here, as well as a lot of other elements of the Left

[Michael Hardner]

18 hours ago, I am Groot said:

I still believe they have to get a majority or the other parties will support the Liberals. 

Not the block. They know how to make deals. This is why Peter Polio says he won't cut the CBC in Quebec.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, I am Groot said:

There's a lot more antipathy between left and right, esp on social issues. This is all American-driven but it's been echoed by the Trudeau Liberals here, as well as a lot of other elements of the Left

For quebec it's about quebec. They want to deal with their social issues in house and not have outsiders dictate.  Trudeau has driven them to be even more isolationist.

So - PP's attitude of smaller federal gov't and more power to the provinces will resonate VERY loudly regardless of how they feel about social issues.  THey'll support the CPC because the CPC will keep their hands off quebec, and also the CPC is no threat to them politically in quebec. And if you throw in a few treats like extra money or special considerations on top that they can parade around at home they'll do whatever you like.