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Reagan: You won, the Wall is gone


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5 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

It's all a big chess game.

giving the Ukrainian 50 tanks when they need 500 tanks, is hand waving

in for a penny, in for a pound

the half measures in play now, is the worst of both worlds

the Russians are already manoeuvring their tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield

so escalation is already in progress

the response to that should not be caution

if the Russians can impose caution by nuclear blackmail ; then we are losing the war at the strategic level

nuclear blackmail should be met with a robust response

sends to the bombers to England, send the Carrier Strike Groups to the Barents

make it clear to the Russians that we are in fact resolved to go to war as necessary

the Balance of Terror must be maintained

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the thing to understand about nuclear deterrence

is that you cannot allow any slack in the system

the entire system relies on the adversary being totally convinced that you are prepared to go to all out war

thus, as soon you become cautious in the face of the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail ?

that is what is existentially dangerous

because you are sending the signal that you may not in fact be resolved to go to war

and that is how deterrence fails and shooting wars start

when the Kremlin becomes convinced that they can get away with nuclear blackmail

inciting them to keep on going with that, to keep advancing with their tactical nuclear weapons

until they cross a red line

then we are at war on the spot

it is far safer to deter them at the earliest opportunity, by going big, with everything we've got

why did the Cuban Missile Crisis happen ?

because the Soviets thought they could get away with nuclear blackmail

that backfired right to the brink of World War Three

if you want to avoid that, you make sure that they know that are not bluffing

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1 hour ago, Contrarian said:

 The changing geopolitical landscape of Europe at the time also played a significant role in the decision-making process.

the evil empire collapsed of its own accord

the Saudis pumped oil until that collapsed the oil price down to $11/barrel in 1986

this caused a crisis in the Soviet Union, since it was entirely funded by oil revenues

the crisis of confidence led to the Soviet Union voting itself out of existence

then the countries which the Soviets had enslaved joined NATO as quickly as they could

because they did not trust that the evil empire wouldn't try to make a comeback

this was obviously prudent, since said evil empire is now trying to reconstitute itself by force of arms

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2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

Russian claims are completely ahistorical nonsense

Without this Putin's crap there would be no justification, even last straw remote for his: "insecurity"; "offense"; ultimatums; and in the logical conclusion, a criminal and brutal military invasion of an independent European nation. Someone needs these straws why? because otherwise they wouldn't have any pretexts not to admit the obvious.

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10 minutes ago, myata said:

Without this Putin's crap there would be no justification, even last straw remote for his: "insecurity"; "offense"; ultimatums; and in the logical conclusion, a criminal and brutal military invasion of an independent European nation. Someone needs these straws why? because otherwise they wouldn't have any pretexts not to admit the obvious.

the cause of this war at the strategic level, really has everything to do with nuclear deterrence

America unilaterally withdrew from the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002

 American Ballistic Missile Defense technology advanced to the point of being able to shoot down MIRVs

this then incited the Russians to violate the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty

now we have an Intermediate Nuclear Forces v. Ballistic Missile Defense arms race confrontation in the Black Sea

just like Cold War One

it's not about politics, it's all about the nukes

nuclear war game theory, which has a logic unto itself

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1 hour ago, myata said:

 because otherwise they wouldn't have any pretexts not to admit the obvious.

there is one overriding strategic imperative here

Putin must not be allowed to get away with nuclear blackmail, escalation dominance by thermonuclear weapons

America & NATO have to prove that nuclear blackmail doesn't work, that NATO can't be cowed by that at all

otherwise, if Putin proves that nuclear blackmail works

that will invite other adversaries to employ it in the exact same way

thus America has to hold strong here, call Putin's bluff

America has to demonstrate that we are resolved to fight a thermonuclear war if necessary

so don't even think about it,  because it's not a bluff

this is Cold War Two already

because this is already about deterring China too

whatever Putin can get away with, China can get away with more

so Putin has to be stopped, be defeated utterly in the end

just to deter China

this is already a two theatre war in progress

this is already the brink of World War Three, right here, right now

Edited by Dougie93
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19 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

nuclear war game theory, which has a logic unto itself

Putin could have played these games till death by boredom but he locked himself into the corner by starting an invasion he cannot be allowed to win. Indeed, anything short of a total defeat and a tribunal to follow would be an invitation to all future dictators big and small to follow in his steps.

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3 minutes ago, myata said:

Putin could have played these games till death by boredom but he locked himself into the corner by starting an invasion he cannot be allowed to win. Indeed, anything short of a total defeat and a tribunal to follow would be an invitation to all future dictators big and small to follow in his steps.

but you have to look to why the Russians support Putin

why do the Russians feel the need for a military strongman to lead them ?

answer : America is a menace at the gates, they say

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7 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

but you have to look to why the Russians support Putin

Correction: you have to find one 5 minute long episode when Russians did not support their brutal totalitarian or as they called it, "own-hold" tyrants, despots, czars and communist rulers. Never happened in the entire bloody like hell itself and useless as it seems, history.  None. They love their rulers most when they are brutal and strong, and hate any manifestation of humanity that they see as synonymous to weakness.

Edited by myata
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On 3/30/2023 at 9:16 PM, August1991 said:

Kennedy put a man on the moon.

====

I am tired of leftist Americans trying to fix the world.

From Clinton to Hollywood. 

Reagan got shot.  Kennedy got shot.  Clinton was impeached.  Prove me wrong.

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20 hours ago, sharkman said:

Reagan got shot.  Kennedy got shot.  Clinton was impeached.  Prove me wrong.

Sorry, there is no conspiracy.

Ordinary Americans defeated the Nazis. They defeated the Soviets.

Since 1989, they should have gone home and left us all alone. 

====

I understand that Bush Snr put US troops in Arabia to push Saddam out of Kuwait.

But you'll note that the US did not cross into Iraq - but its troops stayed in Arabia. Then Clinton bombed Serbia.

The world oil price fell to 10$ in 1998 and the Russian government fell and Yeltsin named Putin.

 And the attack of 9/11 was a result of the continued US presence in Arabia.

Edited by August1991
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7 minutes ago, August1991 said:

The Cold War has ended. The free market has won. People are free to travel. There is no Iron Curtain.

The US President is now circumscribed -not only by a constitution- but by legitimate foreigners.

We live in a multi-polar world.

 

You didn't say anything about democracy there.

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On 4/8/2023 at 4:26 AM, August1991 said:

Sorry, there is no conspiracy.

Ordinary Americans defeated the Nazis. They defeated the Soviets.

Since 1989, they should have gone home and left us all alone. 

====

I understand that Bush Snr put US troops in Arabia to push Saddam out of Kuwait.

But you'll note that the US did not cross into Iraq - but its troops stayed in Arabia. Then Clinton bombed Serbia.

The world oil price fell to 10$ in 1998 and the Russian government fell and Yeltsin named Putin.

 And the attack of 9/11 was a result of the continued US presence in Arabia.

I’m not sure which conspiracy you suppose I am referring to.  I was actually just shooting from the hip, with no deeper meaning.

But since you bring it up, here’s one for you.  Iraq, and Libya and now Russia all had/have one thing in common, and it has to do with their money systems.  Russia is being taken out for the same reasons that Libya and Iraq were.

But this alliance with China, and formation of BRICS will save them.

Edited by sharkman
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10 hours ago, sharkman said:

I’m not sure which conspiracy you suppose I am referring to.  I was actually just shooting from the hip, with no deeper meaning.

But since you bring it up, here’s one for you.  Iraq, and Libya and now Russia all had/have one thing in common, and it has to do with their money systems.  Russia is being taken out for the same reasons that Libya and Iraq were.

But this alliance with China, and formation of BRICS will save them.

Money? How about the Soviets killed Kennedy - but Johnson covered it up.... 

Clinton had a whacky theory about Putin and Trump.

====

As I say, the modern world will always be "multi-polar".

Two millennia ago, Rome may have dominated in its part of the world. But that's like Apple saying in 2000 that it dominates the smartphone market.

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36 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Money? How about the Soviets killed Kennedy - but Johnson covered it up.... 

Clinton had a whacky theory about Putin and Trump.

====

As I say, the modern world will always be "multi-polar".

Two millennia ago, Rome may have dominated in its part of the world. But that's like Apple saying in 2000 that it dominates the smartphone market.

Yup.  Money.  Money is power.

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36 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Yup.  Money.  Money is power.

Disagree very strongly.

No one wants "money" - mere bits of paper?  

====

a) For millennia or more, some of us want power - a synonym for control.

b) In modern times, people want money for what you can get with it.

I see a difference.

Edited by August1991
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18 hours ago, August1991 said:

Disagree very strongly.

No one wants "money" - mere bits of paper?  

====

a) For millennia or more, some of us want power - a synonym for control.

b) In modern times, people want money for what you can get with it.

I see a difference.

No, not bits of paper.  Since before the rise of the Roman Empire, men have been using money as a means of control.  
 

Not the masses, the common man will never have that kind of money.  The rulers.  The elites…those that made sure everyone has a smart phone in their hand so they can be more easily controlled.  Now that’s power.

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  • 2 months later...
On 4/10/2023 at 5:37 PM, sharkman said:

No, not bits of paper.  Since before the rise of the Roman Empire, men have been using money as a means of control.  
 

Not the masses, the common man will never have that kind of money.  The rulers.  The elites…those that made sure everyone has a smart phone in their hand so they can be more easily controlled.  Now that’s power.

Gold coins (bits of paper) are a claim on something real. Think back.

Now, think numbers. How much?

=====

Power = control. Whatever your language, the two words are similar.

These words have nothing connected to maths. 

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