Iraq: not looking good

[Black Dog]

Civil war?

With security experts reporting that no major road in the country was safe to travel, some Iraq specialists speculated that the Sunni insurgency was effectively encircling the capital and trying to cut it off from the north, south and west, where there are entrenched Sunni communities. East of Baghdad is a mostly unpopulated desert bordering on Iran.

"It's just political rhetoric to say we are not in a civil war. We've been in a civil war for a long time," said Pat Lang, the former top Middle East intelligence official at the Pentagon.

[Guest eureka]

It is what some of us forecast since the invasion. What is interesting is how much less media play - not just in Canada - it is getting. Has the White House told its trained media seals to tone it down?

[Black Dog]

It is what some of us forecast since the invasion. What is interesting is how much less media play - not just in Canada - it is getting. Has the White House told its trained media seals to tone it down?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It seems the media is quite willing to ignore Iraq of their own volition.

We say with all the genuine apolitical and non-partisan human concern that we can muster that the death and carnage in Iraq is truly staggering.

And/but we are sort of resigned to the Notion that it simply isn't going to break through to American news organizations, or, for the most part, Americans.

Democrats are so thoroughly spooked by John Kerry's loss —- and Republicans so inspired by their stay-the-course Commander in Chief —- that what is hands down the biggest story every day in the world will get almost no coverage. No conflict at home = no coverage.

[kimmy]

While many will doubtless view this as Courageous Freedom Fighters taking on the Corrupt US Puppet Regime, the factional aspect should not be overlooked.

I'm sure I posted months ago that the only thing that a US pull-out would accomplish would be a Sunni/Shiite bloodbath, so this can hardly be considered surprising.

So, who's gonna win? I'm picking the Sunnis, because they've got the guns and the wackos.

-k

[Black Dog]

I'm sure I posted months ago that the only thing that a US pull-out would accomplish would be a Sunni/Shiite bloodbath, so this can hardly be considered surprising.

So, who's gonna win? I'm picking the Sunnis, because they've got the guns and the wackos.

Well, it certainly appears that the Suni/Shiite bloodbath is underway with the U.S as spectator. The constant attacks and suicide bombings have taken on a sectarian tinge. It seems (to this observer) that there are actually two differnt conflicts going on simultaneosly in Iraq. One the one hand, the military resistance, which seems primarily designed to keep the U.S. bottled up and off-balance and on the other the cruder civil conflict between sects. There's undoubtedbly some overlap, but I find the marked difference in tactics (guerrilla fighting by the former versus the terror campaign, including the random bombings of civilians, that seem sto characterize the latter) worrth noting.

[Guest eureka]

There is an article about a UN survey of Iraq in this morning's Toronto Star. Conditions there are horrendous and worse than at any time in recent history. Saddam was a benevolent despot if social conditions are a criterion, compared to what Iraquis are now coping with.

[Black Dog]

Link.

More than two years after Saddam Hussein's fall, 85 percent of Iraqis complain of frequent power outages, only 54 percent have access to clean water and almost a quarter of Iraqi children suffer from chronic malnutrition, a U.N.-Iraqi survey revealed Thursday.

``The survey, in a nutshell, depicts a rather tragic situation of the quality of life,'' said Iraq's new planning minister, Barham Saleh.

Although Saleh blamed years of wars, economic mismanagement and repressive policies under Saddam, conditions worsened after the U.S. invasion in 2003, and insurgents now are doing their best to tear down the economy, averaging 70 attacks a day at the start of May.

The U.S. reconstruction effort also has drawn criticism. Last week, government investigators said U.S. civilian authorities in Iraq cannot properly account for nearly $100 million promised for projects in south-central Iraq.

...

It found 1.5 million new housing units are needed to deal with a critical housing shortage. Almost a quarter of Iraqi children between the ages of 6 months and 5 years suffer from chronic malnutrition, and 193 women out of every 100,000 births die in labor.

Unemployment is running at just over 18 percent, literacy at 65 percent.

In addition to power and water problems, only 37 percent of the population has working sewage systems, the report said.

``If we compare this to what was there in the 1980s, we would see a major deterioration in the situation,'' Saleh said. ``In 1980, 75 percent of families had access to clean water.''

[August1991]

The population of Iraq is about the same as the population of Canada. As I explained very recently to my pro-Bush, Canadian friend, "Imagine if the American army arrived right now in Ottawa."

Our answer? The Harperites would immediately dissociate all connection. The Martinites would have a big problem and the NDP would have an orgasm - at first. Then, in French-Canada, people would figure out what to do. And in English Canada, some NDP types would collaborate to do good, since some NDP wish the best of a bad situation.

We have problems in Canada now; a foreign invasion would only complicate life.

I view the US invasion of Iraq in the same way. I imagine a deus-ex-machina arrival in Canada.

----

Sunnites represent about 20% of the Iraqi population, like the whites in South Africa. Neither seem too happy about the change in power.

I notice too that the violence in Iraq seems concentrated around Baghdad and the centre. Sunnite areas. In the Kurd North and the Shiite south, things seem different. Basrah is better off. Iraqi Shiites are better off. Northern Kurds are better off. Black South Africans are better off.

Am I wrong?

Who is complaining?

[I miss Reagan]

Operation Matador a Success!

[I miss Reagan]

Sunni's Offer Peace

[kimmy]

Sunni's Offer Peace

Sure, sounds good, but even if some of the Sunni religious leaders promise to join in with the freedom thing, they can't guarantee that the fanatics are going to stop disappearing people or blowing shit up.

-k

[Black Dog]

I notice too that the violence in Iraq seems concentrated around Baghdad and the centre. Sunnite areas. In the Kurd North and the Shiite south, things seem different. Basrah is better off. Iraqi Shiites are better off. Northern Kurds are better off. Black South Africans are better off.

Am I wrong?

Who is complaining?

The Shiites are happy because they are getting the chance to flex their muscles after years of Sunni hegemony. The Kurds are happy becaus ethey get what amounts to veto power in the new government (but what they really want is an independant Kurdistan). Of course, the only thing keeping the whole hous eof cards that is the Iraqi government from falling apart is the prescnence of 100,000+ U.S troops. Still, though, these are broad strokes. One can no more penetrate the byzantine sectarian world of Iraq with easy generalizations.

Operation Matador a Success!

"Where the [expletive] are these guys?" Maj. Kei Braun exclaimed in frustration.

[Black Dog]

August mentioend the relative quiet in places like Basra. I found this article this morning which discusses teh difference in tactics used by the brits in teh south and the U.S. everywhere else: "Trigger-happy US troops 'will keep us in Iraq for years'"

According to senior British officers, US military operations are typified by "force protection"- the protection of troops at all costs - that allows American troops to open fire, using whatever means available, if they believe that their lives are under threat.

By contrast, the British military has a graduated response to a threat and its rules of engagement are based on the principle of minimum force. Troops also have to justify their actions in post-operation reports that are reviewed by the Royal Military Police, and any discrepancy can lead to charges including murder.

A British officer said that some of the tactics employed by American forces would not be approved by British commanders.

The officer said: "US troops have the attitude of shoot first and ask questions later. They simply won't take any risk.

"It has been explained to US commanders that we made mistakes in Northern Ireland, namely Bloody Sunday, and paid the price.

"I explained that their tactics were alienating the civil population and could lengthen the insurgency by a decade. Unfortunately, when we ex-plained our rules of engagement which are based around the principle of minimum force, the US troops just laughed."

[Black Dog]

Bush to offer clear answers on Iraq....or something.

Iraq's insurgency is in its "last throes"; but it is getting deadlier and could last a decade or more. There will be no timetable for U.S. troops to leave; but they will not defeat the rebels.

Recent U.S. policy statements on Iraq ahead of Tuesday's keynote speech by President Bush can seem confusing.

[Argus]

Civil war?

With security experts reporting that no major road in the country was safe to travel, some Iraq specialists speculated that the Sunni insurgency was effectively encircling the capital and trying to cut it off from the north, south and west, where there are entrenched Sunni communities. East of Baghdad is a mostly unpopulated desert bordering on Iran.

"It's just political rhetoric to say we are not in a civil war. We've been in a civil war for a long time," said Pat Lang, the former top Middle East intelligence official at the Pentagon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is just silly. I won't deny that there are religious wackos who want to incite a civil war, but there is certainly no civil war going on in Iraq. If there was, you'd see a hall of alot more Sunnis being killed, especially their religious leaders. You'd see Sunni mosques blowing up, and Shiite and Kurd forces attacking Sunni areas.

That Is what would happen if the US left, mind you. And the Kurds and Shiites are growing tired of the violence. Then again, so are many Sunnis, who are really the ones suffering the most. This "insurgency" benefits no one. Without it the US would likely have been gone by now, and Iraq's infrastructure largely repaired.

[Black Dog]

This is just silly. I won't deny that there are religious wackos who want to incite a civil war, but there is certainly no civil war going on in Iraq. If there was, you'd see a hall of alot more Sunnis being killed, especially their religious leaders. You'd see Sunni mosques blowing up, and Shiite and Kurd forces attacking Sunni areas.

It's already happening. Or haven't you been reading the papers?

Mayhem in Iraq starting to look like civil war

(login required)

Common wisdom holds that if American troops withdraw anytime soon, Iraq will descend into civil war, as Lebanon did in the late 1970's. But that ignores a question posed by events of recent weeks:

Has a civil war already begun?

Iraq is no Lebanon yet. But evidence is building that it is at least in the early stages of ethnic and sectarian warfare.

...

The Americans have added to the alienation of the Sunnis by relying heavily on Shiite and Kurdish military recruits to put down the Sunni insurgency in some of the most volatile areas. The guerrillas, in turn, reinforce sectarian animosities when they attack police recruits or interim government officials as collaborators. Many of these recruits are Shiites or Kurds, and the loss of life reverberates through their families and communities.

...

Assaults by Iraqis on other Iraqis have taken grisly and audacious turns lately. In October, insurgents dressed as policemen waylaid three minibuses carrying 49 freshly trained Iraqi Army soldiers - most or all of them Shiites traveling south on leave - and executed them. Pilgrims going south to the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala have also been gunned down.

    In response, Shiite leaders in the southern city of Basra began telling young men last month that it was time for revenge. They organized hundreds of Shiites into the Anger Brigades, the latest of many armed groups that have announced their formation in the anarchy of the new Iraq. The stated goal of the brigades is to kill extremist Sunni Arabs in the north Babil area, widely known as the "Triangle of Death," where many Shiite security officers and pilgrims have been killed.

[Black Dog]

By the way, anyone else remember that one of the many key and ever-shifting rationales for the Iraq war was to prevent Iraq from serving as a terrorist training ground?

Imagine a terrorist network with Iraq as an arsenal and as a training ground, so that a Saddam Hussein could use his shadowy group of people to attack his enemy and leave no fingerprint behind. [bush, 11/4/02]

Mission totally not accomplished

A new classified assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency says Iraq may prove to be an even more effective training ground for Islamic extremists than Afghanistan was in Al Qaeda's early days, because it is serving as a real-world laboratory for urban combat.

[Black Dog]

Missing: $1 billion

One billion dollars has been plundered from Iraq's defence ministry in one of the largest thefts in history, The Independent can reveal, leaving the country's army to fight a savage insurgency with museum-piece weapons.

The money, intended to train and equip an Iraqi army capable of bringing security to a country shattered by the US-led invasion and prolonged rebellion, was instead siphoned abroad in cash and has disappeared.

"It is possibly one of the largest thefts in history," Ali Allawi, Iraq's Finance Minister, told The Independent.

"Huge amounts of money have disappeared. In return we got nothing but scraps of metal."

The carefully planned theft has so weakened the army that it cannot hold Baghdad against insurgent attack without American military support, Iraqi officials say, making it difficult for the US to withdraw its 135,000- strong army from Iraq, as Washington says it wishes to do.

Officers Worry Iraqi Army Will Disintegrate After U.S. Draws Down

growing number of U.S. military officers in Iraq and those who have returned from the region are voicing concern that the nascent Iraqi army will fall apart if American forces are drawn down in the foreseeable future, Inside the Pentagon has learned.

Newly trained forces generally exhibit “a lack of willingness to fight for something,” says retired Army Col. Gerry Schumacher, a former Green Beret who was recently in Iraq. More than two years of insurgent violence and a U.S.-led occupation have left Iraqi troops with “a lack of a cause to believe in,” says Schumacher, who anticipates a civil war may break out between tribal and ethnic groups when American forces leave.

...

“What emerges has to be of their invention and creation or it will not survive,” says retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor, a former armored cavalry officer who led troops in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Though the new Iraqi army will not meet American norms or standards, it will be forced to deal with the remnants of the insurgency, “which is actually a rebellion against our occupation,” he says.

...

Macgregor and others note the current Iraqi army leadership is rife with officers stealing cash and supplies intended for rank and file troops.

“Corruption within the IA [iraqi army] chain of command … prevents resources from reaching the Iraqi soldier,” says one U.S. Army officer in Iraq.

[GostHacked]

Civil War indeed BlackDog.

This was something I was concerned about right from the start. Knowing that Iraq has 3 distinct religious/ethnic groups. Power of one repress the other. Under Husseins rule there was very little of that from what I know. I just know the US clearly misjudged the way in which they handle Iraq, it seems like they are always playing catch up and damage control.

Just one point to make it all clear.

If Afghanistan is not yet a stable democratic society (they were invaded a long time before Iraq and the violence is starting to ramp up there again), what makes you think that Iraq will be finished anytime soon? It is a pipe dream that needs the bowl repacked.

How committed IS the US in this endeavour? Leaving could send the Middle East into a fast downward spin. Staying just gets more Iraqi civilians and more US and Iraqi troops killed. Seems like a lose lose situation now.

[Montgomery Burns]

Iraqi Lawmakers OK Amended Constitution

Iraq's parliament signed off on revisions to the country's draft constitution Sunday as a leading lawmaker declared that acceptance of the new charter was a matter for the people, not the parliament.  Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy National Assembly speaker, said the new text was given to the United Nations, which will print 5 million copies and distribute them to Iraqis before the Oct. 15 national referendum on the new basic law.  The original draft was not voted on by parliament, and al-Shahristani did not call for legislative approval of the amendments.

"The vote on this ... is the right of the people, not their representatives," he said.

[Montgomery Burns]

An Iraqi Explains Why Al Qaeda Is Frightened Of The New Elections In Iraq

"Some of my friends made fun of Zarqawi and his declaration of war (on the Shias) "So? Now he forgot all about America and Israel, blah blah blah and the Sheat became his sole enemy! I don't think this was Al-Qaeda's original slogan a few years ago!" said one of them and actually the observation is correct but the point is why? Why is this change in priorities and in targets?

When Al-Qaeda first came to Iraq they claimed that they were fighting to liberate this part of "Islamic land" from the "infidels" and they appointed themselves as representatives and guardians of Iraq and its people.

But now, after the Kurds and the Sheat chose their representatives, Al-Qaeda was left with only one segment to represent; that is the Sunni whom Al-Qaeda is now pretending to be defending and avenging from the atrocities of the government but this is also a big lie no doubt because Al-Qaeda had also warned the Sunni from joining the elections and the political process as a whole. Why? Because more Sunni people are expressing their will to participate in the next elections and many observers, polls and surveys expect a 80% turnout among the Sunni in the coming steps of the process; these are the October referendum and the December elections.

Such a high turnout will eventually bring legitimate representatives for the Sunni population and that's what Al-Qeada doesn't want to see happen because there will be no one left to defend or fight for, no pretext for their war and Al-Qaeda will be farther apart from the Sunni militant groups that once were their close allies.

This war declared by Al-Qaeda is frankly a war on elections, and the plan is to stop the elections from taking place at any cost and since confronting the American military has not brought any significant success, Zarqawi is switching to plan B, that is to provoke civil war in Iraq between the Sunni and the Sheat."

Indeed, Omar and Mohammed have also posted that there is not the tension between Sunnis and Shias that the media plays up; they are both Iraqi and intermingle and associate with each other all the time. And I would take the word of two Iraqis over the New York Times.

[Guest eureka]

There was an interesting opinion in your quoted article, Black Dog. One returned American Officer said that this is not an insurgency but a rebellion against American occupation.

Much the same as some of us have been saying from the beginning and forcast when the US invaded.

It is already a civil war, in my opinion, with the Shiites and Kurds, at this time, letting the Americans do their share of the fighting.

[Montgomery Burns]

Iraqi troops continue to progress

There are good reasons to believe the current operation in Tal Afar--a largely Turkoman city near the Syrian border--will be a model of things to come. Previous attempts to clean the terrorists out of Tal Afar and other cities in northern and western Iraq have too often seen the insurgents melt away only to return when the U.S. spearhead withdrew. This time Iraqis are leading the fight and, most important, many will stay so the people of Tal Afar can begin to believe they can live free of terrorist intimidation.

A force of about 5,000 Iraqis and 3,800 Americans killed at least 157 terrorists, detained 440 suspects, and discovered 34 weapons caches, all while suffering minimal casualties. "The terrorists are losing their morale. They couldn't resist as they did in Fallujah," Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told us in an interview last week in New York, where he was attending the United Nations General Assembly.

The Tal Afar operation calls into question the contention of war critics like Senator Joe Biden that there are only a handful of Iraqi troops capable of meaningful operations. In fact, U.S. commanders classify about 40 battalions--roughly 750 soldiers in each--as "fully independent" or able to fight "in the lead."

...Similar Iraqi-led clean-and-garrison operations might well be performed in other problematic cities like Ramadi. This is a classic form of anti-insurgency warfare that has the potential to narrow the range of operations for the terrorists. President Talabani told us that about 50,000-60,000 Iraqi troops can be considered "well trained," and the number is growing. They will eventually replace Americans, though we hope not before more Tal Afar operations can be undertaken.

It's nice to see Iraqi forces outnumbering American troops during a big operation. And there are 30,000 Iraqi troops that are "fully independent" or capable of "fighting the lead?" There are 50,000-60,000 troops that are "well trained?" Given that they essentially started from scratch, the Iraqis have come a long way.

On top of those numbers, keep in mind that there are "178,000 trained and equipped (Iraqi) forces" and the goal, which is achievable because the US now have many more Iraqis capable of training other Iraqis, is "to have 275,000 Iraqi policemen and soldiers trained and equipped and organized into effective units" by June of next year.

So much for the "another Vietnam" mantra.

[newbie]

A force of about 5,000 Iraqis and 3,800 Americans killed at least 157 terrorists...,

On top of those numbers, keep in mind that there are "178,000 trained and equipped (Iraqi) forces"...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They are going to need lots as 142 Iraqi cops and soldiers killed just in this year alone so far.

http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx

[Black Dog]

Iraqi forces may need years of preparation

American Sgt. LaDaunte Strickland, sweat pouring down his face, stared at the four Iraqi soldiers sitting in the shade of a truck.

They were supposed to be helping Strickland and a group of U.S. Marines man a vehicle-control point, a basic operation in which troops hope to catch insurgents at traffic stops they set up quickly on the roadsides.

"Come on. Come on! Get up," said Strickland, 30, of Cleveland, stabbing a cigar in the air to make his point. "Damn, will you PLEASE get up!"

Undeclared civil war signals worse to come

"The current sectarian and ethnic killings in Iraq are actually the

beginning of a civil war," said Georges Sada, an adviser to Iraqi

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafaari and the executive secretary of the

Iraq Institute for Peace. "Sectarian divisions in Iraq have started

back in the '90s, which prepared the ground for the civil war

spreading today."

Although sectarian and ethnic killings in Iraq have been increasing

since the U.S.-led invasion of March 2003, American officials downplay

deep and bitter cultural differences between the country's major

groups: Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. They reject suggestions that Iraq

is headed toward civil war, much less already embroiled in one. They

blame the insurgency on disgruntled ex-Baathists and Sunnis, who make

up 20 percent of the population and who enjoyed a dominant role under

deposed leader Saddam Hussein.

Now the three groups are grappling for future status and power. A

three-month effort produced a constitution that was rejected by the

Sunnis upon its introduction in mid-August. Backed by allies in

smaller Islamic parties, Sunni groups appear to be stepping up an

insurrection that has inflicted heavy losses, mostly through car and

suicide bombings, on U.S. forces, coalition forces, and Iraq's largely

Shiite army and national police.