Federal election October 2019- A look at Liberal strategy

[capricorn]

Amazingly, we are just 15 months away from the next federal election. Yet, the Liberals are now staking out what will be their main plank to win a second mandate. It seems it will center on their immigration and refugee program policies. All the signs support this strategy. But it this the way to go for the Liberals given the problems that have cropped up at the illegal border and the number of immigrants accepted in recent years and from where they originated?

Quote

Immigrants can be an unpredictable bunch. Perhaps that’s to be expected from anyone willing to pack their lives into a suitcase and start anew halfway around the world. It’s an important attribute to survive and thrive, as most are fortunate to do in Canada. But it also leads to some unpleasant surprises for politicians, who, having welcomed them in, naively expect their undying electoral loyalty. Judging by his recent actions, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to learn this the hard way.

The late Gérald Godin, first Immigration minister for the Parti Québécois in the 1980s, gladly welcomed francophone immigrants by the hundreds of thousands, envisioning a legion of new French Canadians that would gratefully and obediently vote for an independent Quebec. Instead, this “ethnic vote” dashed his dreams and voted en masse for a unified Canada in 1995.

Mr. Trudeau is about to walk into a similar pitfall. Despite his glaring inability to come up with a credible plan to address what’s being called a border-crossing crisis, the Prime Minister appears set to make the issue a key plank of his 2019 re-election campaign. In recent weeks, his team has picked fights with Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s newly elected PC government on the matter.

Federal Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen called Ontario Minister Lisa MacLeod “un-Canadian” for her audacity to question the federal government’s fiscal responsibilities toward provinces caring for asylum seekers. Mr. Trudeau’s principal secretary, Gerald Butts, went one step further by declaring any criticism of his government’s handling of the file as “alt-right.” Positioning Mr. Trudeau as a saviour of the stateless and oppressed is a campaign strategy, and with many urbanite, centre-left voters, it could work. But where he’ll likely suffer for it most is in the suburban, immigrant-rich, swing ridings the Liberals desperately need to retain to keep their majority.

While earning him points with the Davos circuit, Mr. Trudeau’s attitude toward the concept of citizenship may prove a great political liability with established immigrants. Having shed years of blood, sweat and tears to earn their Canadian passports, many immigrant voters likely didn’t take kindly to their Prime Minister issuing, via Twitter, an open invitation to the rest of the world to collect theirs at the door.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-justin-trudeaus-gamble-on-immigrant-voters/

When it comes to wooing the immigrant vote Butts is no Jason Kenny and Trudeau is no Harper.

[Centerpiece]

Immigration has for the most part, been handled well over the years - if only because immigrants plan their lives around coming here, are self-supporting, follow the process and are prepared to join our Canadian family. Asylum claimants on the other hand - for the most part - show up in Canada and require the full support of government to acquire the skills they need to live, work and even to survive in Canada. It's a tremendous responsibility for both the refugee and Canada. That is where Trudeau has been such a dismal failure. It takes a lot of planning to develop what should be a 5 year plan for refugees. The Federal government's current responsibility ends after one year - then they become the Provinces' responsibility. Trudeau's reckless open-border policy has been devoid of any such responsible plan - no consultation with the Provinces prior to his "irregular crossing" ignorance. Putting aside those many thousands that are simply economic migrants who should be immediately shooed back to the US - those that genuinely require our help are getting none from Trudeau - no plan - no funding - no support. Meanwhile, real refugees who are trying to escape persecution are left to linger even longer in squalid camps. There is no virtue in Trudeau's actions. He's hurting the people Canada should be helping. He and his backroom idealogues care only about votes. Their grasping of this issue is an attempt to paint Conservatives as heartless and uncaring. If handled properly, it will be the Liberals will be proven heartless. Trouble is, the CBC and The Star will be on the Trudeau bandwagon. Maybe hang some garlic to ward them off? 

Edited July 31, 2018 by Centerpiece

[capricorn]

A sign of things to come for the Liberals.

Quote

From the moment a protester grabbed a counter-protester’s megaphone and hurled it into the fountain of the Markham Civic Centre, Saturday’s demonstration against illegal border crossings and their effect on suburban Toronto degenerated quickly into violence and anger.

Police arrived to separate men who had thrown a few punches, and others who seemed about to, including one man who was pushing another as he held up a sign reading “Not In My Back Yard,” according to video captured by Ming Pao Daily News.

It was a small rally of a few dozen mainly Chinese-Canadian protesters in Markham, a city northeast of Toronto, and hundreds of kilometres from any land border with the United States. Nevertheless, as the demonstration was met by a smaller group of pro-refugee protesters, it became a flashpoint in the North American refugee crisis, with Markham’s mayor, Frank Scarpitti, as the unlikely main target.

At issue was a rumour that Markham was about to agree to house as many as 5,000 asylum seekers in unused buildings, after Toronto asked for help accommodating an overflow.

“Say NO to Mayor Frank!” read several signs in identical red lettering. Others played off the recent shooting rampage in Toronto: “Do Not Let Tragedy Happen In Markham.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/fists-fly-and-so-does-a-megaphone-as-refugee-crisis-inflames-local-politics-in-toronto-area

These events will keep Liberal operatives awake at night.

[Queenmandy85]

In the near future, the driving force for refugees fleeing into Europe and North America will morph from fleeing violence to fleeing starvation as equatorial regions become uninhabitable do to climate change. Rather than thousands, it will be tens, if not hundreds of millions. They will be unstoppable. Federal policy will be irrelevent. They will come, regardless

Edited July 31, 2018 by Queenmandy85

[paxamericana]

Just now, Queenmandy85 said:

In the near future, the driving force for refugees fleeing into Europe and North America will morph from fleeing violence to fleeing starvation as equatorial regions become uninhabitable do to climate change. Rather than thousands, it will be tens, if not hundreds of millions. They will be unstoppable. 

Oh yeah, this texan is already eyeballing a nice peace of land in vancouver... 

[Queenmandy85]

1 minute ago, paxamericana said:

Oh yeah, this texan is already eyeballing a nice peace of land in vancouver... 

Better move fast and pray you can hold on to it.

[paxamericana]

Just now, Queenmandy85 said:

Better move fast and pray you can hold on to it.

When we americans move up there you will see the extinction of Canadians. Its like the last Mohichan or rather Canadian.

[turningrite]

23 hours ago, capricorn said:

Amazingly, we are just 15 months away from the next federal election. Yet, the Liberals are now staking out what will be their main plank to win a second mandate. It seems it will center on their immigration and refugee program policies. All the signs support this strategy. But it this the way to go for the Liberals given the problems that have cropped up at the illegal border and the number of immigrants accepted in recent years and from where they originated?

When it comes to wooing the immigrant vote Butts is no Jason Kenny and Trudeau is no Harper.

I suspect the Libs will stay as far away from debate on their immigration and refugee policies as they can possibly manage to do. Their policies aren't big vote getters among the general population and as studies have indicated are even less likely to be so when the public is informed about the true extent and costs of these programs. The Lib approach has been to stifle debate and cast themselves as the keepers of truth and wisdom on these matters for so long that it's inconceivable they'd be open to actual rational public debate. It just won't happen.

[Queenmandy85]

2 hours ago, paxamericana said:

When we americans move up there you will see the extinction of Canadians. Its like the last Mohichan or rather Canadian.

Don't worry, both Americans and Canadians will be swamped by the flood of refugees coming north, including refugees from the southern states.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Don't worry, both Americans and Canadians will be swamped by the flood of refugees coming north, including refugees from the southern states.

 

Americans are already swamped each year by Canadian refugees trying to escape climate change.....they really like Florida I am told.

[OftenWrong]

On 7/30/2018 at 3:16 PM, capricorn said:

Amazingly, we are just 15 months away from the next federal election. Yet, the Liberals are now staking out what will be their main plank to win a second mandate. It seems it will center on their immigration and refugee program policies. All the signs support this strategy. But it this the way to go for the Liberals given the problems that have cropped up at the illegal border and the number of immigrants accepted in recent years and from where they originated?

Apparently not. Things don't look particularly good for the Liberals at this point in time.

Conservatives out-fundraise Liberals, post best 2nd quarter result outside of election year

The Conservatives have posted their best second-quarter fundraising results outside of an election year in their party's history, taking in just over $6 million in the three months ending on Jun. 30 and raising nearly twice as much money as the governing Liberals.

Keep it up, smilin' Andy.

[scribblet]

Just read that they are cutting back on the carbon tax scheme due to competitive concerns....  more like election concerns 

[turningrite]

14 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Just read that they are cutting back on the carbon tax scheme due to competitive concerns....  more like election concerns 

I take it by competitive they're actually talking about polling, which means they likely realize that campaigning on a promise of economic stagnation might be a hard sell with voters.

[scribblet]

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

I take it by competitive they're actually talking about polling, which means they likely realize that campaigning on a promise of economic stagnation might be a hard sell with voters.

Both...  they now get it that such a punitive tax will lessen Canada's competitiveness

[capricorn]

20 hours ago, turningrite said:

I suspect the Libs will stay as far away from debate on their immigration and refugee policies as they can possibly manage to do.

It looks to me the Liberals are losing the immigrant vote. This would be disastrous for the Liberals in Ontario in an election given the large number of immigrants. They've lost all support in Alberta. Their strong showing right now is in Quebec and the Maritimes. Given this scenario I doubt the Liberals can win another majority.

[-TSS-]

Your country has moved to 4-year terms insread of earlier 5-year terms? Perhaps that is better. 5 years is quite a long time when as 3 years is quite a short time which is the interval in Australia and NZ. Therefore 4 years is suitable.

[turningrite]

2 minutes ago, -TSS- said:

Your country has moved to 4-year terms insread of earlier 5-year terms? Perhaps that is better. 5 years is quite a long time when as 3 years is quite a short time which is the interval in Australia and NZ. Therefore 4 years is suitable.

Our constitution allows for terms of up to 5 years. However, more recently, as fixed election date laws - which were once seen as inconsistent with parliamentary democracy - have emerged, we've moved in practice to 4 year terms. Governments aren't bound by the 4 year limit, however, and can easily bypass the election date laws by changing them, as is the prerogative of any majority government. Minority governments seldom last 4 years, much less through a 5 year term, so the issue is moot where minority government situations are concerned.

[capricorn]

Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould emphasized the need for an impartial and independent debate commission or commissioner in a letter to a House of Commons’ committee this week.

“Formally establishing an independent commission to organize the debates could help ensure that the interests of Canadians, rather than private entities and political parties, are central to how leaders’ debates are organized and broadcast,” Gould wrote.

She went on to outline some of the government’s views on how such an independent body would operate, including that it should be guided by various high-minded principles such as “democratic citizenship, civic education and inclusion.”

The commission or commissioner should also ensure that “the decision they take reflects diversity in Canada,” she added, while working to ensure debates are as accessible as possible.

Yet Gould was decidedly vague on whether the body should be set up inside Elections Canada as well as the politically sensitive question of how and when it should establish _ and publicly reveal _ the criteria for deciding leaders’ participation.

The senior official, who did not have authorization to speak publicly, said the government has been working for some time and while some details are still being finalized, the intent is have the new entity ready for the October 2019 election.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4466825/trudeau-liberals-leaders-debate-organizing-body/

How do you make political debates diverse and inclusive? Should be interesting to see how Liberals implement this ambitious plan.

[turningrite]

23 hours ago, capricorn said:

Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould emphasized the need for an impartial and independent debate commission or commissioner in a letter to a House of Commons’ committee this week.

“Formally establishing an independent commission to organize the debates could help ensure that the interests of Canadians, rather than private entities and political parties, are central to how leaders’ debates are organized and broadcast,” Gould wrote.

She went on to outline some of the government’s views on how such an independent body would operate, including that it should be guided by various high-minded principles such as “democratic citizenship, civic education and inclusion.”

The commission or commissioner should also ensure that “the decision they take reflects diversity in Canada,” she added, while working to ensure debates are as accessible as possible.

Yet Gould was decidedly vague on whether the body should be set up inside Elections Canada as well as the politically sensitive question of how and when it should establish _ and publicly reveal _ the criteria for deciding leaders’ participation.

The senior official, who did not have authorization to speak publicly, said the government has been working for some time and while some details are still being finalized, the intent is have the new entity ready for the October 2019 election.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4466825/trudeau-liberals-leaders-debate-organizing-body/

How do you make political debates diverse and inclusive? Should be interesting to see how Liberals implement this ambitious plan.

Scary stuff. I interpret Ms. Gould's position to mean that the government will do everything it can to try to ensure that voices it doesn't want heard during the election won't be 'platformed' - a favorite non-democratic practice of progressives. I believe that any party that sits at a certain level in polling at the time the election is called, say 8 to 10 percent, should be permitted to participate in televised debates and as time goes on I'm sure we'll see that the government will do anything it can to try to deny Bernier and his new party a voice - and the CPC, out of self-interest, will probably go along with this. We already know what the Trudeau government means by the term "democratic institutions" as we saw this agenda play out on electoral reform, where Trudeau made it clear that "fringe" views (i.e. views contrary to his own and/or potentially harmful to LPC interests) must be kept out of Canada's political arena, thus essentially cementing the monopoly now held by the traditional three-party cartel that dominates federal politics. Views held by others, even if/when reflective of majority opinion, simply aren't welcome. That's "progressive" democracy folks.

Edited September 21, 2018 by turningrite

[Argus]

The Liberals will mainly fight the election by paying for votes, same as last time around. They will offer more free stuff, likely offer carbon tax rebates for 'middle income' people so those people aren't required to pay for their high-minded belief in carbon taxes, and likely a drug plan as well as more welfare for Atlantic Canada.

 

Edited September 21, 2018 by Argus

[turningrite]

1 hour ago, Argus said:

The Liberals will mainly fight the election by paying for votes, same as last time around. They will offer more free stuff, likely offer carbon tax rebates for 'middle income' people so those people aren't required to pay for their high-minded belief in carbon taxes, and likely a drug plan as well as more welfare for Atlantic Canada.

 

Sadly, you're probably correct. But will it work? Wynne's luck with this approach ran out in the recent Ontario election. She got one majority government and then, poof, it was gone. (Okay, McGuinty played the game too, but not with the apparent enthusiasm of his successor.) The problem with hidden taxes like carbon taxes is that they're utterly regressive and increase living costs for lower and middle income taxpaying workers and retirees, whose incomes simply can't keep up with the new taxes. And it's not clear that these taxes are necessary or entirely effective. Ontario reduced its carbon emissions dramatically mainly by eliminating coal generated electricity and encouraging conservation. It didn't need the expensive bells and whistles added to its electricity costs by inefficient boutique green energy schemes. Regressive taxation entails insidiously negative impacts. The rich are fine,as always, and the subsidy class gets tax credits and rebates, but ordinary lower and middle income taxpayers are continuously squeezed. Trudeau says he's looking out for the "middle class," which presumably in Lib speak means people earning a lot more than Canada's individual and household median income levels.

Edited September 21, 2018 by turningrite