NAFTA negotiations.

[Thinkinoutsidethebox]

On 9/27/2017 at 3:23 PM, Queenmandy85 said:

I'll keep this post handy. I'm curious to see how the outcome compares with your prediction.

Well, it appears #1 is about to happen...

How much time have they wasted so far?

Maybe next year? 

[paxamericana]

Hurry up and get on board Canada. You can be a great example for the rest of the free world to adopt unilateral free trade. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4297811/finance-ministers-trade-canada-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s/

[bush_cheney2004]

11 minutes ago, paxrom said:

Hurry up and get on board Canada. You can be a great example for the rest of the free world to adopt unilateral free trade. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4297811/finance-ministers-trade-canada-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s/

 

Not so fast....why does Canada get to export 85% of automotive production to the United States ?

Increase U.S. content to 85% !

Ontariowe has already lost thousands of auto sector jobs and it will lose a lot more because of federal and provincial policies.  

New premier Doug Ford has a big mess to clean up, but it's not America's job to help him do it.

[bush_cheney2004]

This guy gets it.....NAFTA or no NAFTA...there is a  new trade sheriff in town and his name is Donald Trump.

Don't expect any relief from NAFTA 2.0.....

 

Quote

...Even with updates on automotive rules of origin, digital commence, customs facilitation, intellectual property and a host of other things under the NAFTA modernization agenda, nothing will reduce – let alone eliminate – the right of the United States to use trade remedies against Canadian exports if and when it wants to.

 

This right is embedded in NAFTA, undiminished as it was in the 1987 Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement, and is enshrined in the World Trade Organization agreement as well. No president, quite apart from Mr. Trump, will ever agree to have these rights watered down.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-new-nafta-wont-protect-canada-from-trumps-trade-agenda/

 

[paxamericana]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

This guy gets it.....NAFTA or no NAFTA...there is a  new trade sheriff in town and his name is Donald Trump.

Don't expect any relief from NAFTA 2.0.....

 

 

I just love how all the economist running around in Canada and EU are trying to make a logical argument against Trump's proposal for true free trade.

The best part is they know he's right from an academic standpoint but they can't admit it and instead chosen to appear politically tough like Trudeau whilst screwing over their countrymen. 

WAKE UP CANADA. America is doing you a favor!

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, paxrom said:

WAKE UP CANADA. America is doing you a favor!

 

Agreed...Canada should have diversified exports years ago....stop being so dependent on exports to the USA.

Even President Obama had "Buy American" rules for federal contracts.

[paxamericana]

6 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Agreed...Canada should have diversified exports years ago....stop being so dependent on exports to the USA.

Even President Obama had "Buy American" rules for federal contracts.

And the funny thing is they're not going to get a better deal anywhere else. We have the best economy, the largest market, the most stable market I might add.

If they aren't willing to do free trade with us their closest neighbor friend and ally"what makes them think they will get a better deal with China or any other country for that matter. 

You think China will give you a better deal than what they're providing to all their subservient vassal state "one belt silk road"? Better deal than what they gave the US who has the strongest bargaining power in the world when it comes to trade?

Bunch of half baked intellectuals running these countries . ARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGG

Edited June 27, 2018 by paxrom

[Zeitgeist]

Let's see what happens to the bluster and fury coming from POTUS after the counter-tariffs from U.S. trading partners start to have impact.  The U.S. has to eliminate the tariffs of 2018 to give credence to the position that the U.S. is offering a good "deal".  The $25 billion in U.S. subsidies to farmers would have to be eliminated before we could have a conversation about pure free trade.  Pure free trade isn't really what's called for anyway.  There will always be a need for cultural and small industry protections, so that the diversity that supports minorities and makes life interesting isn't replaced by the bland monoculture of a single, dominant mainstream western culture.  Fair trade is what's important.  Every country has its niche concerns.  For the U.S. it's things like pharmaceutical patent protection and military-related technology.  I will tell you that any discussion over trade policy or any other foreign policy approach that uses dominance and zero-sum tactics will fall flat in the long run.  The $5000.00 I was going to spend at Disney this summer will be spent in Canada and Europe.  People will vote at the ballot box and with their wallets. 

[paxamericana]

30 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Let's see what happens to the bluster and fury coming from POTUS after the counter-tariffs from U.S. trading partners start to have impact.  The U.S. has to eliminate the tariffs of 2018 to give credence to the position that the U.S. is offering a good "deal".  The $25 billion in U.S. subsidies to farmers would have to be eliminated before we could have a conversation about pure free trade.  Pure free trade isn't really what's called for anyway.  There will always be a need for cultural and small industry protections, so that the diversity that supports minorities and makes life interesting isn't replaced by the bland monoculture of a single, dominant mainstream western culture.  Fair trade is what's important.  Every country has its niche concerns.  For the U.S. it's things like pharmaceutical patent protection and military-related technology.  I will tell you that any discussion over trade policy or any other foreign policy approach that uses dominance and zero-sum tactics will fall flat in the long run.  The $5000.00 I was going to spend at Disney this summer will be spent in Canada and Europe.  People will vote at the ballot box and with their wallets. 

That's just wishful thinking. The tariff were meant to address the trade imbalance, albeit they're really being used for leverage with trade negotiation. If anything,  Canada should be the one lowering tariffs. But once again, your protectionist mindset for those milk producers are ridiculous. 

[Zeitgeist]

Stop.  The U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada in dairy.  If you want to go there, U.S. farm subsidies should also be on the table.  No suppression of facts by one side.  In the end, the U.S. won’t give up all the subsidies because it’s domestically unpopular.  Either everything is on the table or it isn’t, including supply management.  Even with domestic policy on the table, I can guarantee you that there will be exemptions, because there’s no one size fits all solution to solving the problems of vulnerable industries.  

[bush_cheney2004]

5 hours ago, paxrom said:

That's just wishful thinking. The tariff were meant to address the trade imbalance, albeit they're really being used for leverage with trade negotiation. If anything,  Canada should be the one lowering tariffs. But once again, your protectionist mindset for those milk producers are ridiculous. 

 

Agreed....this has become less about the actual nuts and bolts of trade and more about not giving in to Trump and the Americans....for domestic Canadian politics.

Canada's dairy trade barriers have been attacked by the U.S., European Union, New Zealand, etc for many years...it's not just Trump.

[paxamericana]

25 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Stop.  The U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada in dairy.  If you want to go there, U.S. farm subsidies should also be on the table.  No suppression of facts by one side.  In the end, the U.S. won’t give up all the subsidies because it’s domestically unpopular.  Either everything is on the table or it isn’t, including supply management.  Even with domestic policy on the table, I can guarantee you that there will be exemptions, because there’s no one size fits all solution to solving the problems of vulnerable industries.  

Uh, Trump literally came out and said , with his economic secretary, NO Tarriff no subsidies, no barriers. Total free trade! He proposed all of this during the G7 and probably even before then. He didn't even dodge the question, or be coy like a typical politician (cough Trudeau).

But your policy makers are the one dragging their foot about it. So Trump went heavy handed. 

 

[Jimwd]

49 minutes ago, paxrom said:

Uh, Trump literally came out and said , with his economic secretary, NO Tarriff no subsidies, no barriers. Total free trade! He proposed all of this during the G7 and probably even before then. He didn't even dodge the question, or be coy like a typical politician (cough Trudeau).

But your policy makers are the one dragging their foot about it. So Trump went heavy handed. 

 

Trump lied . He got caught lying. Further more Trump justified his tariffs by calling Canada a national security threat. The day after 911 I flew an American flag. One of the most regret filled actions I have ever taken,

Edited June 28, 2018 by Jimwd

[paxamericana]

8 hours ago, Jimwd said:

Trump lied . He got caught lying. Further more Trump justified his tariffs by calling Canada a national security threat. The day after 911 I flew an American flag. One of the most regret filled actions I have ever taken,

You're hurting our sensitive American feelings

[Zeitgeist]

Canada will always show solidarity with Americans.  No regrets about supporting the U.S. after 911.  This trade business isn't about relations between the peoples of the two countries.  There are so many Canadians with American roots and vice versa that dumping on one side is pooping on one's own doorstep.  Hopefully the trade escalation stops as a few items are ironed out in a new deal.  Canada has a plan to manage the current U.S. trade aggression: counter-tariffs, expanding trade beyond the U.S., supporting domestic industry and workers, working in concert with other impacted countries.  Plan B, should the trade war escalate and spread to the auto sector, will require a massive public-private partnership between the Canadian federal government and companies such as Magna, Bombardier, NPL, and AltaSteel that builds locomotives, pipelines, and perhaps even automobiles.  It would require a few major publicly funded and owned (at least in part) infrastructure projects, such as a high-speed rail line in the Quebec-Windsor corridor, prioritizing Montreal to Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo; the completion of west-east-west pipelines that allow Canada to supply the domestic market and new international markets with domestically produced and refined oil and gas; and a large investment in subways, light-rail, and heavy rail public transit in Canada's urban centres.  While this would be a massive public works investment, it would boost productivity, make Canada more attractive to the best and brightest workers, and replace the lost Canadian auto and steel/aluminum jobs resulting from Trump's tariffs.  In several years Canada would have more diversified export markets, a modernized transportation and energy network, and a new Canadian manufacturing capacity targeted to 21st century market conditions.  Canadians would unify to ride out the short-term headwinds for the sake of building a stronger, more self-sufficient economy aligned to Canada's priorities.

Really, something like Plan B has to happen and will happen eventually whatever happens with U.S. tariffs.  The difference would be timing, as Canada would need to act fast under increased tariffs.  Keep in mind, however, that the door swings both ways.  There would be counter-tariffs on the U.S. from all impacted countries, not to mention large-scale consumer retaliation.  If Canada and other countries stopped honouring U.S. pharmaceutical patents, that would hurt that industry and medical research and development worldwide.  Everyone loses in a trade war that imposes costly and unnecessary barriers to the flow of goods and services. 

Edited June 30, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

2 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

...  If Canada and other countries stopped honouring U.S. pharmaceutical patents, that would hurt that industry and medical research and development worldwide.  Everyone loses in a trade war that imposes costly and unnecessary barriers to the flow of goods and services. 

 

This would also strengthen Trump's contention that some U.S. intellectual property rights are already being ignored by other nations, including Canada.

[Zeitgeist]

Do you want to start a list of all of the Canadian technologies hijacked by U.S. interests, from the telephone to mach-speed jets to smartphones?  Intellectual property rights are respected in Canada.  My point is that they may soon be disregarded if the U.S. continues to flout international trade rules. 

[bush_cheney2004]

27 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Do you want to start a list of all of the Canadian technologies hijacked by U.S. interests, from the telephone to mach-speed jets to smartphones?  Intellectual property rights are respected in Canada.  My point is that they may soon be disregarded if the U.S. continues to flout international trade rules. 

 

They are already "flouted" by many nations.   Trump needn't make any exceptions for Canada even if it is less.

Canada gains far more from U.S. developed IP than does the U.S. from Canada.

 

[Zeitgeist]

The U.S. has a much larger population than Canada.  That's well established, so of course there are more patents.  These truisms go without saying and don't mean anything.  Countries make their own decisions about how to handle intellectual property.  The more reciprocal the relationship, the more consistency there will be in a wide range of rules between countries.  If reciprocity in trade is discouraged, this can spread to areas beyond trade.  

[paxamericana]

Looks like the war is on boys and girls. Better start hoarding Canadians before all the stuff you want are over priced.

"Canada hits $13 billion of US goods with new tariffs"

 http://money.cnn.com/2018/07/01/news/canada-us-tariffs-steel-aluminum/index.html

[bush_cheney2004]

2 hours ago, paxrom said:

Looks like the war is on boys and girls. Better start hoarding Canadians before all the stuff you want are over priced.

 

OK...but products will still be cheaper in the USA.   Trudeau is just hosing Canadian consumers more than they already are.

[paxamericana]

8 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

OK...but products will still be cheaper in the USA.   Trudeau is just hosing Canadian consumers more than they already are.

Yup no doubt. These tariff open up huge opportunities in developing countries especially in Africa. Mexico Canada and the EU have enjoyed their protectionist policy against america for way too long. Soon enough other doors will open and they'll have to capitulate or face larger financial crisis. 

[Zeitgeist]

The opportunity certainly isn’t there for the U.S., as it’s goods will be boycotted and non-U.S. trading partners will reduce barriers to trade and expand it with each other. There will be growing pains for sure, but once the adjustments are made, the U.S.’s stature may never be as high as it was.  It’s always better to take the high road.  What a dumb risk Trump has taken.  

[paxamericana]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

The opportunity certainly isn’t there for the U.S., as it’s goods will be boycotted and non-U.S. trading partners will reduce barriers to trade and expand it with each other. There will be growing pains for sure, but once the adjustments are made, the U.S.’s stature may never be as high as it was.  It’s always better to take the high road.  What a dumb risk Trump has taken.  

I dont think so. The US will thrive as it always have but will canada bask in the sun with it's supply management in a global economy is yet to be determine. But economic theory dictates that those with the least barriers will thrive. Like America. 

[bush_cheney2004]

1 hour ago, paxrom said:

I dont think so. The US will thrive as it always have but will canada bask in the sun with it's supply management in a global economy is yet to be determine. But economic theory dictates that those with the least barriers will thrive. Like America. 

 

Agreed...Canada's GDP is far more dependent on exports (32%) than the United States' GDP (12%). 

Further still, American corporations own 50% of Canada's manufacturing base.

A trade war with America involves far more than the price of ketchup....American capital and market size has been Canada's economic saviour for decades.