NAFTA negotiations.

[bush_cheney2004]

9 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

That’s why it’s so important for Canada to reduce its exposure to the U.S. wherever possible.  Let the EU and Mexico teach Trump’s novices about trade and go through the process of realizing trade is about give and take, not take and take.  The U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada.  Never forget that. They’re taking advantage of our dependence on trade with the U.S. to exact extortionist concessions.  They are NOT playing fair and certainly not as so called leaders of the free world.  Soon countries will gamble that are better leaders out there.  Postpone trade negotiations with the U.S. for as long as it takes for either a regime change or a serious change of tactics from these extortionists. 

 

I agree...Canada is far too dependent on the economy of a single nation...the United States.    Without access to the huge U.S. export market and American capital investment, Canada would not be a G-7 nation.    The U.S. is far more diversified and far less dependent on exports compared to Canada.

The U.S. should never play "fair" with Canada...Canada and other nations are economic competitors....play to win.

Go find a better deal...and thank Donald Trump for making Canada grow-up economically. 

[bush_cheney2004]

Here is a reminder of which nation matters most for NAFTA trade....please note how much less trade there is between NAFTA "partners" Canada and Mexico:

 

 

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/defining-north-american-trade

[turningrite]

9 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Here is a reminder of which nation matters most for NAFTA trade....please note how much less trade there is between NAFTA "partners" Canada and Mexico:

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/defining-north-american-trade

I believe these merchandise trade figures don't take into account other trade flows, particularly in services, technology transfers and capital returns (i.e. profits), where I believe the U.S. enjoys significant surpluses with its NAFTA partners. Also, while much of Mexico's merchandise surplus largely results from the relocation of labor intensive manufacturing to that country, any surplus Canada arguably enjoys is related more to resource exports to the U.S., an outcome intended by design rather by subterfuge or manipulation. If you can recall the FTA/NAFTA debate, (which I can), I remember the furor in Canada over guaranteeing American energy supplies. In fact, Canada's oil and gas industry, in particular, has always been heavily oriented to serving American markets. Is this now seen as a downside by the Americans?

The article you cite actually notes that NAFTA has not been primarily responsible for U.S. manufacturing job losses ("Of course, blaming NAFTA alone for job losses is highly misleading, particularly given the dramatic trade shifts that took place when China joined the WTO..."), which seems to broadly contradict the tenor of your comments on this topic. and where manufacturing is concerned Canada has taken few if any jobs from the U.S. and in fact the reverse is more likely to be true. Anecdotally speaking, the Canadian-founded company my sister worked for relocated to the U.S. (and she along with it) following the implementation in the late 1980s of the original FTA deal, which preceded the NAFTA regime. And, speaking more broadly, Canada suffered a significant free-trade related recession at the beginning of the 1990s that witnessed the hollowing out of central Canada's manufacturing economy, in particular, a situation that was never reversed. So, ordinary Canadians don't need to be lectured on the deleterious impacts of globalized or even regionalized trade. We have been its victims as much as have many Americans who live in the "rust belt" states.

[Zeitgeist]

Trump most certainly is not responsible. 

Edited August 1, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

2 hours ago, turningrite said:

 If you can recall the FTA/NAFTA debate, (which I can), I remember the furor in Canada over guaranteeing American energy supplies. In fact, Canada's oil and gas industry, in particular, has always been heavily oriented to serving American markets. Is this now seen as a downside by the Americans?

 

So there would be no major Canadian oil and gas industry save for American investment and market access ?  [Sun Oil/Suncor was a U.S. subsidiary of Sun Company/Sunoco...a massive U.S. capital investment at the time.]    It is not so much a downside as much a potential economic and security risk for the American economy, which learned its lesson well after the 1970's energy crisis...diversify...diversify...diversify.   Canada decided to double down, increasing dependence on the U.S. economy & foreign direct investment.    Canada stayed fat and dumb, choosing to fight over east-west pipeline infrastucture and refining capacity in favour of a discounted export price and access to U.S. infrastructure.

At a very basic level, Canada's population is too small, too divided, and too lacking in domestic capital/market size to leverage resource extraction, transport, refining, and distribution on a Canada size, continental scale.   Canada needs/wants foreign direct investment and export markets to make this possible, otherwise it doesn't happen.  

Now enter one President Donald Trump, who wants to disturb this "historic" relationship, and Canada begins to freak out ("economic existential threat").

 

Quote

The article you cite actually notes that NAFTA has not been primarily responsible for U.S. manufacturing job losses ("Of course, blaming NAFTA alone for job losses is highly misleading, particularly given the dramatic trade shifts that took place when China joined the WTO..."), which seems to broadly contradict the tenor of your comments on this topic. and where manufacturing is concerned Canada has taken few if any jobs from the U.S. and in fact the reverse is more likely to be true. Anecdotally speaking, the Canadian-founded company my sister worked for relocated to the U.S. (and she along with it) following the implementation in the late 1980s of the original FTA deal, which preceded the NAFTA regime. And, speaking more broadly, Canada suffered a significant free-trade related recession at the beginning of the 1990s that witnessed the hollowing out of central Canada's manufacturing economy, in particular, a situation that was never reversed. So, ordinary Canadians don't need to be lectured on the deleterious impacts of globalized or even regionalized trade. We have been its victims as much as have many Americans who live in the "rust belt" states.

 

Canada has taken American jobs in several sectors...especially automotive...exporting 85% of production to the USA.   Fortunately, Ontario has hosed things up so badly over the past 25 years, there are far fewer such automotive jobs in Canada.   Mexico was/is also a concern and "sucking sound" warned by Ross Perot in 1992.   China soon followed, irrespective of NAFTA.    Now Canada is being used to transship goods from other nations to dump in the USA, some being counterfeit / IP theft.

What amazes me is that through all of this, there is no Canadian Plan B...no think tank or government funded policy assessment that warned of such risks....only authors like Maude Barlow who warned that selling out to the Americans would lead to the very thing Canada feared....becoming a vassal state to America.

 

Edited August 1, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

If Norway can extract and reap all of the revenue from its energy, Canada certainly can.  The U.S. is one investment player among many and China wants in. We kept them somewhat at bay for security reasons.  Now the U.S. is calling Canada a security threat, so maybe the better plan for Canada is to align itself with China. Trudeau is a fan. 

[bush_cheney2004]

7 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

If Norway can extract and reap all of the revenue from its energy, Canada certainly can. 

 

But Canada didn't...and won't.   Like Canada, Norway also required foreign direct investment (capital) to develop its oil and gas industry.

[Zeitgeist]

That's fine.  We'll do the FDI needed, diversifying away from the U.S., and with the largest possible royalties for Canadians.  It's nowhere near too late.  The oil sands are still in their infancy of development.  Canada is only starting to explore the possibilities of liquefied natural gas shipping, another massive energy ace.

[bush_cheney2004]

4 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

That's fine.  We'll do the FDI needed, diversifying away from the U.S., and with the largest possible royalties for Canadians.  It's nowhere near too late.  The oil sands are still in their infancy of development.  Canada is only starting to explore the possibilities of liquefied natural gas shipping, another massive energy ace.

 

Canada has already screwed up the LNG opportunities....same way it screwed up east-west pipelines and refineries.   Tree huggers, politicians, separatists, First Nations, etc. continue to fight over such things while nothing gets done.   Sunny ways !!

[paxamericana]

In other related new, we are going to see more tran-shipping  of goods through various countries before entering the US, this is an attempt to dodge tariff. Hilariously i found this out as some of my normal goods usually shipped from california all of a sudden started shipping from vancouver... 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/business/china-trade-tariffs-transshipment.html

[bush_cheney2004]

Here's another....over 60,000 counterfeit dolls (IP theft) stopped at the Canada-US border.

 

More Than 60,000 Counterfeit Dolls Seized at Canadian Border in Minnesota

 

[paxamericana]

11 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Here's another....over 60,000 counterfeit dolls (IP theft) stopped at the Canada-US border.

 

More Than 60,000 Counterfeit Dolls Seized at Canadian Border in Minnesota

 

I know right, no wonder our new sheriff is cracking down hard on Canada, the land of counterfeit and other criminal activities...

Edited August 1, 2018 by paxamericana

[Zeitgeist]

Gina!!!

[turningrite]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

So there would be no major Canadian oil and gas industry save for American investment and market access ?  [Sun Oil/Suncor was a U.S. subsidiary of Sun Company/Sunoco...a massive U.S. capital investment at the time.]    It is not so much a downside as much a potential economic and security risk for the American economy, which learned its lesson well after the 1970's energy crisis...diversify...diversify...diversify.   Canada decided to double down, increasing dependence on the U.S. economy & foreign direct investment.    Canada stayed fat and dumb, choosing to fight over east-west pipeline infrastucture and refining capacity in favour of a discounted export price and access to U.S. infrastructure.

At a very basic level, Canada's population is too small, too divided, and too lacking in domestic capital/market size to leverage resource extraction, transport, refining, and distribution on a Canada size, continental scale.   Canada needs/wants foreign direct investment and export markets to make this possible, otherwise it doesn't happen.  

Canada has taken American jobs in several sectors...especially automotive...exporting 85% of production to the USA.   Fortunately, Ontario has hosed things up so badly over the past 25 years, there are far fewer such automotive jobs in Canada. 

What amazes me is that through all of this, there is no Canadian Plan B...no think tank or government funded policy assessment that warned of such risks....only authors like Maude Barlow who warned that selling out to the Americans would lead to the very thing Canada feared....becoming a vassal state to America.

 

Much of what you say is true from a historical perspective but not really so in relation to more recent experience. Canada has for most of the past several years seen a net outflow of capital when calculating direct foreign investment coming into the country compared to Canadian direct investment outflow. (See the graph in the article linked below.) Some of this relates to changing economics in the energy industry, particularly after oil prices declined in 2014. But I suspect it also reflects longer term realities as well.

Canada's energy industry, in particular, has experienced consolidation but also I believe a strengthening of Canadian ownership as a result of foreign investment pullback. Our automotive assembly sector has been in decline for quite some time. The auto parts sector, in which Canadian capital is more heavily involved, has been more robust but faces real threats as a result of Trump's approach.

The vassal state problem has always existed for this country. I believe "free trade" has actually served to consolidate Canada's weaknesses rather than enhance its strengths or advantages. And I don't think Canadians other than some politicians and business leaders are particularly "freaked out' about Trump's trade strategy. I believe a poll published prior to Trump's NAFTA attacks indicated that the trade pact has resulted in more harm than good. Those who have benefited are naturally very attached to the status quo, but most Canadians are likely more equivocal and side with the government and business on NAFTA negotiations mainly as a reaction to Trump's attacks. I tend to subscribe to the opinion of the Toronto Star writer, Thomas Walkom, who says that ultimately a renegotiated NAFTA isn't singularly crucial to Canada's prosperity and that we could survive without it. And, like many Canadians, I oppose some of the provisions our government wants to preserve, including supply management and investor protection.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/investment-outflow-from-canada-already-underway-in-real-time-rbc-head

[bush_cheney2004]

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

...The vassal state problem has always existed for this country. I believe "free trade" has actually served to consolidate Canada's weaknesses rather than enhance its strengths or advantages. And I don't think Canadians other than some politicians and business leaders are particularly "freaked out' about Trump's trade strategy. I believe a poll published prior to Trump's NAFTA attacks indicated that the trade pact has resulted in more harm than good. Those who have benefited are naturally very attached to the status quo, but most Canadians are likely more equivocal and side with the government and business on NAFTA negotiations mainly as a reaction to Trump's attacks. I tend to subscribe to the opinion of the Toronto Star writer, Thomas Walkom, who says that ultimately a renegotiated NAFTA isn't singularly crucial to Canada's prosperity and that we could survive without it. And, like many Canadians, I oppose some of the provisions our government wants to preserve, including supply management and investor protection.

 

Resurgent nationalism on the part of Trudeau's "post national" Canada is interesting to watch, but it shouldn't take a Donald Trump to encourage it.    The Liberals were very much opposed to FTA/NAFTA when originally proposed, only to capitulate and embrace "free trade" as essential to the continued "integration" of North America and Canada's economic growth.   Eventually Canada would/should develop new markets and less dependence, but the loss of GATT/WTO/FTA/NAFTA trade frameworks would bring on some short term pain that goes far beyond boycotting American made ketchup & mustard.  

Trump's rhetoric was recognized as an "existential threat" to Canada very early on, before his election win in 2016, but there was little Canada could do about except react to his decisions and policies as they unfolded.   Trudeau and Freeland waited too long and conflated too many other issues even when NAFTA negotiations started (e.g. "feminist agenda").    Begging other U.S. federal, state, and corporate leaders for relief has not been very effective.   A minority of Canadians now want Trudeau to stop screwing around and "cut a deal" to preserve as much of the status quo as possible, because Canada has no Plan B.

Because of oil prices, China is now America's #1 trading partner, and Mexico is also closing the gap on CanAm trade valuation.    Canada will have to diversify away from such a large dependence on U.S. export trade if it wants to benefit from the globalization that it is pursuing as a matter of government policy.  

Based on what I read/see in Canadian media, Donald Trump has most certainly caused a lot of anxiety and fear, to the point that Trumpisms are now part of everyday political discourse in Canada, a country that seemingly gorges itself on American decisions and actions regardless of who is president.

Edited August 1, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada grows more desperate...now seeking to build NAFTA support on American social media.  

It must be getting serious because Canada spent a whopping $15,000 to produce it !

 

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-video-canadian-embassy-benefits-1.4769985

[turningrite]

5 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Resurgent nationalism on the part of Trudeau's "post national" Canada is interesting to watch, but it shouldn't take a Donald Trump to encourage it.    The Liberals were very much opposed to FTA/NAFTA when originally proposed, only to capitulate and embrace "free trade" as essential to the continued "integration" of North America and Canada's economic growth.  

Because you're in the U.S., I think it unlikely you and many other Americans recognize the degree to which Trump is detested beyond America's borders, especially in Western countries. Basically, he's seen as a boor and a bully and most people can't believe that an advanced country could elect such a leader. This could have longer term negative implications for America's reputation than many in the U.S. currently realize. Nationalism in Canada isn't particularly strong, and certainly not much, if any, stronger than it was prior to Trump's election. Oddly, Trump has united a broad swath of Canadians across the political spectrum in their dislike of him. This hasn't translated into greater personal popularity for our own PM, whose limitations have become more apparent as time has passed, even though his party has had a bit of a 'Trump bump' in recent polling due to adopting a firm stance against Trump's tariff rhetoric and measures. There's still a rump on the right who favor Trump but they constitute a distinct minority. But he isn't seen as an existential concern for most Canadians, at least outside of a few industries that his actions could seriously impact. Our economy is functioning relatively well and recently experiencing better growth than was the case prior to Trump's tariff tantrums. Were the economy not doing as well, there might be more panic.

[bush_cheney2004]

25 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Because you're in the U.S., I think it unlikely you and many other Americans recognize the degree to which Trump is detested beyond America's borders, especially in Western countries. Basically, he's seen as a boor and a bully and most people can't believe that an advanced country could elect such a leader. This could have longer term negative implications for America's reputation than many in the U.S. currently realize.

 

Americans heard the same things about George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.   Because you're not in the U.S., I think it unlikely that you or others outside America understand just how much less Americans care about such international approvals.    That's more of a Canadian value..."please love us".

However, we are very much aware of such things....Pew polling routinely measures and reports on same:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/17/9-charts-on-how-the-world-sees-trump/

America's reputation waxes and wanes depending on many factors, and people from around the world keep trying to vote with their feet to get into the USA.

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[DogOnPorch]

6 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Americans heard the same things about George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.   Because you're not in the U.S., I think it unlikely that you or others outside America understand just how much less Americans care about such international approvals.    That's more of a Canadian value..."please love us".

However, we are very much aware of such things....Pew polling routinely measures and reports such things:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/17/9-charts-on-how-the-world-sees-trump/

America's reputation waxes and wanes depending on many factors, and people from around the world keep trying to vote with their feet to get into the USA.

 

 

The rally yesterday in Florida says all one needs to re Trump.....HUGE.

[paxamericana]

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

Trump is detested beyond America's borders, especially in Western countries. Basically, he's seen as a boor and a bully and most people can't believe that an advanced country could elect such a leader.

We know we just don't care frankly. We american think that the rest of the world can learn a great deal from us not necessarily the other way around. Outside of western democracy the rest of the world is a "shit-hole". This is coming from someone who has done a lot of traveling and living in these third world countries for several years. The things we moan and argue about here is nothing in comparison of what goes on in the daily struggle of a average person in a third world country. 

 

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

Our economy is functioning relatively well and recently experiencing better growth than was the case prior to Trump's tariff tantrums. Were the economy not doing as well, there might be more panic.

This is only temporary and not sustainable with current trade disputes.

Edited August 2, 2018 by paxamericana

[OftenWrong]

20 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Here is a reminder of which nation matters most for NAFTA trade....please note how much less trade there is between NAFTA "partners" Canada and Mexico:https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/defining-north-american-trade

Interesting graphic. We need to know the truth, whether it is pleasant or not.

[OftenWrong]

18 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

That's fine.  We'll do the FDI needed, diversifying away from the U.S., and with the largest possible royalties for Canadians.  It's nowhere near too late.  The oil sands are still in their infancy of development.  Canada is only starting to explore the possibilities of liquefied natural gas shipping, another massive energy ace.

These are things which many Canadians have said and wanted, for decades. If it happens now, we can thank Donald Trump for getting us off the dope. Always hard for druggies to do that...

Edited August 2, 2018 by OftenWrong

[Zeitgeist]

U.S. ignorance about the rest of the world and how the U.S. is perceived beyond its borders has always been an Achilles heel, but it’s protracted now. The U.S. is becoming a zombie country, choking on its fluffy distractions and consumption. Russia has always seen this.  They’re really laughing now, watching a country divided against itself, alienating allies, and creating inroads for new players. The U.S. is no longer the only game in town. Canada will adjust to tariffs and develop new markets and partnerships. If and when America rises from its slumber, it may find a less receptive world.  Enter China. 

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

U.S. ignorance about the rest of the world and how the U.S. is perceived beyond its borders has always been an Achilles heel, but it’s protracted now.

 

Actually, the U.S. has more landed immigrants than any other nation in the world, including many Russians...Chinese...and...Canadians.   The U.S. has been perceived so badly that other nationals risk their lives just to get into the country.

[Zeitgeist]

Yeah times are changing.  Look, I’ve had some great times down there.  Many Canadians and Americans are related, and there are opportunities for both countries to benefit from each other, but I can’t believe the comments about “shithole countries”. Many times down there I’ve felt unsafe and heard first hand stories from seemingly average people who have lost loved ones to gun violence or succumbed to crippling health care costs after an accident or diagnosis.  We constantly hear about everything going on in the U.S.  Maybe the U.S. has something to learn from some other places. I always feel a sense of relief returning to the cleanliness and safety of Canada.  Our extremes at the top and bottom aren’t as extreme as yours.  There aren’t as many one percenters, but I appreciate that we take care of each other and I think there are lessons to learn from that.  I hope we’ve evolved from the night is right, winner takes all mentality of the past, but progress is in retreat in in some parts of the world.