Canada has a 12% chance of being destroyed

[Argus]

In the next decade. Coronal Mass Ejections happen all the time. The sun shoots them off into space fairly frequently, some small, some enormous. The last time Earth was hit with one was in 1817. It damaged the telegraph lines but we didn't have a lot else to be bothered. One today of a similar size could fry every unprotected electronic and electrical system, including the transformers which run our electrical grid. By some estimates, it could take years to replace the destroyed transformers, leading to a mass death of as much as 90% of the population. 

NASA says Earth is hit with one of these big pulses about every 200 years, which means we're due. The odds of getting hit in the next decade are 12%. 

In addition, a nuclear weapon going off 400km above the center of north America would cause an Electromagnetic Pulse severe enough to accomplish the same ends, and North Korea's leader is among those who have threatened to do so. The Russians, Chinese and Iranians are all known to have investigated the possibility of this.

A US commission found the cost of protecting the electrical grid from such a pulse would be about $20 billion. Which sounds like a lot except when you compare it to the alternative. A new book has come out in Canada which suggests the cost to protect our grid would be a couple of hundred million dollars.  By way of comparison, the refugees we took in from Syria will cost us a couple of billion. Kathleen Wynne renegotiated Ontario's electrical capital cost debt to artificially lower electric prices for the next few years to make herself look good at an estimated cost of $21 billion. The federal government paid $500 million to celebrate Canada Day.

What is Canada doing about it? Nothing. Much like the US. We have an agency which is getting ready to start a study of the issue sometime next year. 

The basic point is that EMPs constitute a brief energy surge that can—with no warning whatsoever and no direct harm to living beings—radically damage or destroy so much of continental North America’s electrical infrastructure that life as we know it would come to a shuddering stop for months on end. Call for help? Your iPhone is fried. Drive to the store for supplies? Your car’s electronic system is out; it won’t move (and even if it did, your local gas station’s pumps are electrical, and they’re dead). Anyway, that store you are headed for has no power and no way to keep food fresh or get more. Your computer’s down, of course. Also controlled by now-useless electronic SCADAs (Supervising Control and Data Acquisition: the “modern equivalents of the Roman aqueducts”): clean drinking water, the sewage system and the natural gas distribution system.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/barbara-kay-this-could-destroy-our-civilization-but-we-dont-talk-about-it#comments-area

[Bonam]

The threat of EMP is commonly exaggerated in popular culture. Your thread title certainly doesn't help. No, it won't fry all electrical/electronic equipment permanently, whether you're talking about a CME or a nuclear EMP weapon.

When it comes to CMEs, the travel time of the CME from the Sun to Earth is typically 3-5 days and we have instruments that detect them as they form, meaning necessary steps can be taken in advance (i.e. powering things off).

When it comes to nuclear EMP, EMP-optimized weapons are a whole other branch of development from basic nuclear weapons and there is no indication this is something NK has undertaken so far. Further, the reach of such a weapon is exaggerated in popular culture. It would certainly not affect the entire continent. Also, while missile defense systems remain imperfect, the same anti-missile systems we have in place to intercept strategic nuclear weapons can also be used against EMPs. 

That said, I agree with you that on the scale of North America, $20 billion is a trivial cost and is a small price to pay to make the electrical grid robust against even very improbable threats. 

Edited September 21, 2017 by Bonam

[Argus]

7 minutes ago, Bonam said:

The threat of EMP is commonly exaggerated in popular culture. Your thread title certainly doesn't help. No, it won't fry all electrical/electronic equipment permanently, whether you're talking about a CME or a nuclear EMP weapon.

When it comes to CMEs, the travel time of the CME from the Sun to Earth is typically 3-5 days and we have instruments that detect them as they form, meaning necessary steps can be taken in advance (i.e. powering things off).

My understanding is that it wouldn't matter if things were powered off. The EMP itself would supply the energy and delicate electronic systems would still be fried. 

7 minutes ago, Bonam said:

When it comes to nuclear EMP, EMP-optimized weapons are a whole other branch of development from basic nuclear weapons and there is no indication this is something NK has undertaken so far.

The US commission which examined the possibility of an attack did not conclude that it would require any particularly optimized weapon to accomplish the job. 

http://www.heritage.org/defense/report/the-electromagnetic-pulse-commission-warns-old-threat-new-face

7 minutes ago, Bonam said:

Further, the reach of such a weapon is exaggerated in popular culture. It would certainly not affect the entire continent.

The affected area depends on its height. And my understanding is that more northern lattitudes would be under greater threat due to the stronger magnetic field.

 

 

[eyeball]

2 hours ago, Argus said:

By some estimates, it could take years to replace the destroyed transformers, leading to a mass death of as much as 90% of the population. 

Still nothing compared to the dangers of Islam or doing nothing about the left inviting terrorists into our homes.

People's priorities are sure mixed up.

[bush_cheney2004]

3 hours ago, Bonam said:

The threat of EMP is commonly exaggerated in popular culture. Your thread title certainly doesn't help. No, it won't fry all electrical/electronic equipment permanently, whether you're talking about a CME or a nuclear EMP weapon.

 

Agreed.....response to the EMP "threat" began decades ago with design hardening for critical components, cabling, shielding, wave guides, sub-systems, power supplies, control software/firmware, etc. with beefed up grounding, reflection, and absorption.    Yes, there would be many disruptions and outages, but EMP would not bring down an entire continent.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a060435.pdf

Honeywell began hardening its flight avionics systems for EMP (natural and man-made) over 30 years ago.

Tactically, it is far cheaper and easier to bring down a nation's power grid with metal chaff cluster munitions, as Serbia and Iraq experienced first hand.

 

Edited September 21, 2017 by bush_cheney2004

[Argus]

This scope of damage could cover perhaps 70 per-cent or possibly more of the continental UnitedStates as well as a significant part of

Canada’s population.

http://empactamerica.org/app/uploads/2014/06/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

 

[bush_cheney2004]

The presumed impact of EMP on Canada by extending (yet again) American research and analysis is indirect and dubious at best. 

There would be far more pressing concerns after a spirited thermonuclear conflagration.

Edited September 21, 2017 by bush_cheney2004

[-TSS-]

I think the threat from North-Korea is similar to the threat of Iraq with WMD back in the days of Saddam; it doesn't exist in reality.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, -TSS- said:

I think the threat from North-Korea is similar to the threat of Iraq with WMD back in the days of Saddam; it doesn't exist in reality.

Threat to whom?  He set off a nuclear bomb and sent a missile over Japan in the same week.  I think that makes them a fairly decent threat to Japan.  And then, they're nuts.  That doesn't help.  Add to that they are facing down the most careless President in the history of the US, and I think the threat can be said to exist.

[DogOnPorch]

1 hour ago, bcsapper said:

Threat to whom?  He set off a nuclear bomb and sent a missile over Japan in the same week.  I think that makes them a fairly decent threat to Japan.  And then, they're nuts.  That doesn't help.  Add to that they are facing down the most careless President in the history of the US, and I think the threat can be said to exist.

 

John Fitzgerald Kennedy

[Argus]

7 hours ago, -TSS- said:

I think the threat from North-Korea is similar to the threat of Iraq with WMD back in the days of Saddam; it doesn't exist in reality.

Did Iraq ever set off nuclear bombs?

[DogOnPorch]

4 minutes ago, Argus said:

Did Iraq ever set off nuclear bombs?

 

North Korea has also proved...despite its leaders...to field rather competent military units. Similar to (North) Viet-Nam's in general abilities. 

Arab troops have rotten command and control...religion gets in the way...literally.

"Will you guys knock-off the Allahu Akbars. They now know our positions..."

 

Edited September 23, 2017 by DogOnPorch

[DogOnPorch]

Coronal Mass Ejections are another thing all together.

That's a chunk of the Sun getting lobbed into space...happens much more than one thinks. But getting in the path of one is the rare thing....space R big.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpzCSZ7Eerc

 

[DogOnPorch]

But, we can be thankful our star is in the middle-ish of the ol' Hertzsprung-Russell chart as that gives us a warm star not governed by convection with a fairly decent lifespan.

Red dwarf stars...the most common...are believed to strip any atmosphere from orbiting planets* in the 'Goldilocks Zone' due to their turbulent atmosphere shooting off constant CMEs. Which is too bad as these types of stars have extremely long lifespans.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/nasa-finds-planets-of-red-dwarf-stars-may-face-oxygen-loss-in-habitable-zones

* which are probably tidally locked.

[blackbird]

12 hours ago, -TSS- said:

I think the threat from North-Korea is similar to the threat of Iraq with WMD back in the days of Saddam; it doesn't exist in reality.

How can you say it doesn't exist when N. Korea has already set of atomic bombs and possibly a hydrogen bomb which might be 1000 times more powerful?  Sadam didn't have WMDs but N. Korea has nuclear weapons and is working on their delivery system to enable them to reach North America.

Edited September 23, 2017 by blackbird

[Argus]

5 hours ago, DogOnPorch said:

Coronal Mass Ejections are another thing all together.

That's a chunk of the Sun getting lobbed into space...happens much more than one thinks. But getting in the path of one is the rare thing....space R big.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpzCSZ7Eerc

Yes, we get hit  approximately every 200 years.

NASA says the odds of getting hit in the next decade are 12%

Edited September 23, 2017 by Argus

[-TSS-]

North-Korean leaders are nuts but they are not stupid. They know full well that if they launched missiles against western countries instead of over them they would themselves get obliterated within hours.

However, within those hours they could probably destroy Seoul on the other side of the border and kill millions of people.

[DogOnPorch]

24 minutes ago, Argus said:

Yes, we get hit  approximately every 200 years.

NASA says the odds of getting hit in the next decade are 12%

 

Yes...we get hit quite often by small CMEs. That where the big Northern Lights originate from. It's a bit misleading...12%...as not all CMEs are atmosphere stripping major events. So I think the actual risk is quite a bit less. The weak link...as I understand it...is older transformers...and the fact there aren't enough replacements if a bunch all went at once. A long blackout/brownout could result.

 

[DogOnPorch]

27 minutes ago, -TSS- said:

North-Korean leaders are nuts but they are not stupid. They know full well that if they launched missiles against western countries instead of over them they would themselves get obliterated within hours.

However, within those hours they could probably destroy Seoul on the other side of the border and kill millions of people.

 

As posters have pointed out...North Korea is dug-in like the Japanese on Iwo Jima. Even a large hydrogen bomb might just shift the dust on the surface around a bit while the 'regime' remains unaffected. The US and pals have far more to lose...one egg on one of those expensive aircraft carrier task forces...that might provoke a crisis @ home in the USA.

Cards need to be played carefully....big stakes. 

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, blackbird said:

 Sadam didn't have WMDs but N. Korea has nuclear weapons and is working on their delivery system to enable them to reach North America.

But if Saddam had been in possession of inter-continental nukes America would have left him alone too and millions of lives would have been saved as a result.

[Argus]

18 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

 

Yes...we get hit quite often by small CMEs. That where the big Northern Lights originate from. It's a bit misleading...12%...as not all CMEs are atmosphere stripping major events. So I think the actual risk is quite a bit less.

No, it is 12% chance of a big one. https://www.wired.com/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/

[Argus]

41 minutes ago, -TSS- said:

North-Korean leaders are nuts but they are not stupid. They know full well that if they launched missiles against western countries instead of over them they would themselves get obliterated within hours.

Well, I don't want to go all Tom Clancy on you, but suppose Russia decides it's tired of American interference, and tells NK it will 'help' it by providing a modern launch missile, and then it sends a truck-mounted missile across their border - and launches the missile itself. An EMP erupts over the US. The US wipes out North Korea in retaliation, and over the next few years Russia splits the world with China.

[DogOnPorch]

2 minutes ago, Argus said:

No, it is 12% chance of a big one. https://www.wired.com/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/

 

Don't get fooled by statistics...plus...it's not 1962.

[DogOnPorch]

2 minutes ago, Argus said:

Well, I don't want to go all Tom Clancy on you, but suppose Russia decides it's tired of American interference, and tells NK it will 'help' it by providing a modern launch missile, and then it sends a truck-mounted missile across their border - and launches the missile itself. An EMP erupts over the US. The US wipes out North Korea in retaliation, and over the next few years Russia splits the world with China.

 

During the Cold War, the standard Rooshin plan was an EMP over the civilian target followed by a a city buster...

[eyeball]

5 minutes ago, Argus said:

Well, I don't want to go all Tom Clancy on you, but suppose Russia decides it's tired of American interference, and tells NK it will 'help' it by providing a modern launch missile, and then it sends a truck-mounted missile across their border - and launches the missile itself. An EMP erupts over the US. The US wipes out North Korea in retaliation, and over the next few years Russia splits the world with China.

How would Russia get off the hook so easy?