Fort McMurray wildfire

[waldo]

..........BC 2004 mentioned the Martin Mars (based a few hours away from my home), last year the BC Liberals were pressured into contracting it out again to fight fires after they cut its contract to save money...........and here we are today, and one of the World's largest water bombers, that have set records in the amount of water it has dropped, sits parked here on Vancouver Island.........why didn't the Alberta Government contract out them last weekend when the fire fighters on the ground said they needed help?

Sure seems that way...maybe the Martin Mars contributes too much to global warming climate change.

guys, guys... first googly/top return: Coulson Flying Tankers owner Wayne Coulson says: "the Martin Mars is undergoing its annual inspection. Based on the fact no government has any interest whatsoever in the aircraft fighting fire, we have decided to take the Mars to the Oshkosh Air Show in late July in hopes of finding another business or home for it"

wow, 'no government'... that's harsh, bordering on businessBitterness. No provincial and/or U.S. federal/state contracts... but 'it's Notley's fault', right?

.

[bush_cheney2004]

On the plus side, all those unemployed people in the trades due to the oil downturn, should see a mini building boom in Northern Alberta........

Agreed...nobody wants a wildfire or other disaster to destroy a city (except for maybe climate change alarmists), but there will be major economic activity to offset the losses. Other cities have certainly bounced back from wildfire destruction...better than before.

[waldo]

Agreed...nobody wants a wildfire or other disaster to destroy a city (except for maybe climate change alarmists)

geezaz, considering your past MLW posting history shows you consider anyone who advocates for response to GW/AGW/CC is a, as you say, "climate change alarmist'... you're cutting a pretty wide swath here. Do you really mean this or are you taking your standard liberties in saying something just to "stir the pot"... just looking for a reaction, "for reactions sake"? Please clarify - thanks in advance.

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[Shady]

Is Justin Trudeau doing anything to help end the fires? Reports are it could double in size and head for Saskatchewan. Is he doing anything other than photo ops? Is he coordinating with other provinces, states and countries to help? I don't see any urgency in the Justin Trudeau government at all.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Michael Hardner
corrected PM name

[jacee]

Is Justin doing anything to help end the fires? Reports are it could double in size and head for Saskatchewan. Is he doing anything other than photo ops? Is he coordinating with other provinces, states and countries to help? I don't see any urgency in the Justin government at all.

You don't see because you haven't looked.

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[Shady]

You don't see because you haven't looked.

.

I haven't noticed. Other than seeing the fires getting worse by the day.

[jacee]

I haven't noticed.

Yes that's obvious.

Not even Justin can stop that kind of fire.

Do you think he's a god or something?

.

Edited May 8, 2016 by jacee

[cybercoma]

Is Justin Trudeau doing anything to help end the fires? Reports are it could double in size and head for Saskatchewan. Is he doing anything other than photo ops? Is he coordinating with other provinces, states and countries to help? I don't see any urgency in the Justin Trudeau government at all.

I'm with you on this one. The least he could do is stand out there with a garden hose, like I said earlier.

[Shady]

I'm with you on this one. The least he could do is stand out there with a garden hose, like I said earlier.

That's not what I asked about. You're full of strawmen today.

[cybercoma]

You said he should do something. I'm saying the same thing and I even offered an example of what he could be doing.

Edited May 8, 2016 by cybercoma

[cybercoma]

Alternatively, he could fly to Fort Mac and do a rain dance. That seems more his speed, as it would make for a good photo op.

Edited May 8, 2016 by cybercoma

[Shady]

I was fairly specific.

[Topaz]

I wonder if they will be able to tell HOW the fire started in the first place. There are fires burning in B.C. heading towards Alberta and now the Alberta Fires are heading to Saskatchewan and we may have fires burning in all the provinces IF we don't get any hard pouring rain. I'm surprised the South-West US isn't burning yet. The insurance companies could go broke or consumers won't be able to afford insurance on their properties. Mother-nature WE NEED your help!

[?Impact]

I wonder if they will be able to tell HOW the fire started in the first place. There are fires burning in B.C. heading towards Alberta and now the Alberta Fires are heading to Saskatchewan and we may have fires burning in all the provinces IF we don't get any hard pouring rain. I'm surprised the South-West US isn't burning yet. The insurance companies could go broke or consumers won't be able to afford insurance on their properties. Mother-nature WE NEED your help!

The insurance industry is $45 billion/year in premium income. We don't have any idea at the moment what the claims from this fire will be so I wouldn't begin to pronounce doom and gloom for the industry just yet.

[Guest]

Alternatively, he could fly to Fort Mac and do a rain dance. That seems more his speed, as it would make for a good photo op.

Cultural appropriation. No way he's gonna do that.

[Guest]

I wonder if they will be able to tell HOW the fire started in the first place. There are fires burning in B.C. heading towards Alberta and now the Alberta Fires are heading to Saskatchewan and we may have fires burning in all the provinces IF we don't get any hard pouring rain. I'm surprised the South-West US isn't burning yet. The insurance companies could go broke or consumers won't be able to afford insurance on their properties. Mother-nature WE NEED your help!

Mother nature is helping. But she helps the planet, not the insignificant denizens of such.

[overthere]

You don't see because you haven't looked.

.

The federal government has virtually no role at this point in coordination or suppression or evacuation or evacuee support activities , though Goodale and Trudeau will continue to bleat on and many will believe them because.... they must believe in The Saviour and His Disciples. They will have an opportunity soon for phot ops and more pretend, and eventually to actually help out if the Feds so choose. But not now.

The insurance industry is $45 billion/year in premium income. We don't have any idea at the moment what the claims from this fire will be so I wouldn't begin to pronounce doom and gloom for the industry just yet.

The insurance industry is nearly disaster-proof. What will happen is that premiums everywhere will simply go up to cover losses anywhere. The word 'loss' is a transient event for insurance companies, it is rarely permitted on a balance sheet.

[overthere]

I wonder if they will be able to tell HOW the fire started in the first place. There are fires burning in B.C. heading towards Alberta and now the Alberta Fires are heading to Saskatchewan and we may have fires burning in all the provinces IF we don't get any hard pouring rain. I'm surprised the South-West US isn't burning yet. The insurance companies could go broke or consumers won't be able to afford insurance on their properties. Mother-nature WE NEED your help!

The cause of forest fires is almost always known with certainty.

There are only two root causes: lightning and humans. All ground lightning strikes in Canada are detected, recorded and monitored in close to real time. This is the current system https://www.ec.gc.ca/foudre-lightning/default.asp?lang=En&n=D88E34E8-1

All strikes were also tracked long before the current system, which was founded in 1998. This system has more sophisticated reporting and covers North America.

There was no lightning associated with this fire, or none reported yet, so..... almost certainly caused by humans.

[cybercoma]

Cultural appropriation. No way he's gonna do that.

It's not appropriation if he gets some First Nation to do it along with him. Then it's "being an ally."

[?Impact]

The cause of forest fires is almost always known with certainty.

There are only two root causes: lightning and humans.

Quite correct that in continental North America, the predominant natural cause of forest fires is lightening. Human caused forest fires are far more frequent (over 80% are human caused), although in terms of total burn area they are about equal. That is because generally human caused forest fires are closer to civilization and firefighting resources and are caught and extinguished sooner.

One example of natural cause of a forest fire other than lightening is spontaneous combustion. This is where a pile of decaying organic matter traps in the heat of an exothermic reaction, and that builds to a point high enough to cause ignition. Not a very common occurrence in nature, but not totally unknown either, and the long dry spell would have contributed to it. Where man has built piles of organic matter (e.g. straw, compost, sawdust,...) this happens more frequently but it can and has happened without human influence as well.

[Derek 2.0]

The federal government has virtually no role at this point in coordination or suppression or evacuation or evacuee support activities , though Goodale and Trudeau will continue to bleat on and many will believe them because.... they must believe in The Saviour and His Disciples. They will have an opportunity soon for phot ops and more pretend, and eventually to actually help out if the Feds so choose. But not now.

That won't last long, per the Disaster Financial Assistance Agreement (Appendix A), the Feds will be on the hook for 50% of the costs after $3.03 per capita has been reached, 75% after $6.07 has been reached, and 90% after the second $6.07.........So the Feds are going to be on the hook for billions, all the while they will see a reduction in revenue and a ding to the economy..........even if only 25% of the city has been destroyed, in terms of cost, this fire is one pace to be the largest natural disaster in Canadian history.

[Derek 2.0]

guys, guys... first googly/top return: Coulson Flying Tankers owner Wayne Coulson says: "the Martin Mars is undergoing its annual inspection. Based on the fact no government has any interest whatsoever in the aircraft fighting fire, we have decided to take the Mars to the Oshkosh Air Show in late July in hopes of finding another business or home for it"

.

And in the article, he also stated if requested by the Alberta Government, they would make every effort to be there......

[msj]

And in the article, he also stated if requested by the Alberta Government, they would make every effort to be there......

Like any good business person he talks up his plane.

[?Impact]

That won't last long, per the Disaster Financial Assistance Agreement (Appendix A), the Feds will be on the hook for 50% of the costs after $3.03 per capita has been reached, 75% after $6.07 has been reached, and 90% after the second $6.07.........So the Feds are going to be on the hook for billions, all the while they will see a reduction in revenue and a ding to the economy..........even if only 25% of the city has been destroyed, in terms of cost, this fire is one pace to be the largest natural disaster in Canadian history.

That is per-capita of the provincial population, not the area affected. That doesn't change things that significantly, but the threshold for 90% is reached after about $60 million in disaster assistance for Alberta. Yes, the federal government will be picking up the majority of the disaster assistance and it will be a big number. Remember however that disaster assistance does not include the cost of rebuilding, private enterprise insurance companies are on the hook for most of that.

[Derek 2.0]

That is per-capita of the provincial population, not the area affected.

Yes, I know.

That doesn't change things that significantly

That's subject........in the some circles, 80k is a far smaller number than 4 million........

but the threshold for 90% is reached after about $60 million in disaster assistance for Alberta.

I might have got a tad too much sun this weekend, but I'm not sure how you've come to $60 million.......I get under $50 million......none the less, the Federal government is going to be on the hook for billions.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Derek 2.0