Federal Byelection Results

[Big Guy]

Federal Liberals elected two new MPs from Toronto Monday evening in byelections in Trinity-Spadina and Scarborough-Agincourt, while the Conservatives retained two seats in Alberta

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/federalbyelection.html

Does this indicate the start of the end for the NDP?

Do these results tell us anything about the next election?

[scribblet]

Maybe, more Liberals in the 905 area at the expense of the NDP. No surprise the Liberals retained Scarborough-Agincourt, it's been solid Liberal for decades.

[Boges]

It does say something about the NDP. That was Olivia Chow's seat.

Quite frankly, I'm surprised anyone would elect a jerk like Adam Vaughan.

I guess he's a known figure being a city councillor and vocal Rob Ford hater.

It does say something about JT's positive message by bringing a negative politician like that in.

Edited July 1, 2014 by Boges

[Bob Macadoo]

It does say something about the NDP. That was Olivia Chow's seat.

Quite frankly, I'm surprised anyone would elect a jerk like Adam Vaughan.

I guess he's a known figure being a city councillor and vocal Rob Ford hater.

It does say something about JT's positive message by bringing a negative politician like that in.

Being Anti-Ford is not the definition of negativity......just decisive.....long before all the bandwagon "Ford Haters".

[Boges]

It's more than Ford hating. He's got a rep of being a huge jerk.

[monty16]

Federal Liberals elected two new MPs from Toronto Monday evening in byelections in Trinity-Spadina and Scarborough-Agincourt, while the Conservatives retained two seats in Alberta

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/federalbyelection.html

Does this indicate the start of the end for the NDP?

Do these

Let's hope it's the end of the NDP. They sold their souls to the Conservatives in their attempt to defeat Liberals.

[Bryan]

It's quite remarkable how strong the CPC record has been in by-elections. They've maintained 7 seats, gained 4, and lost only one since they've been in power.

[Boges]

It's quite remarkable how strong the CPC record has been in by-elections. They've maintained 7 seats, gained 4, and lost only one since they've been in power.

Apparently JT tried really hard to win the Fort McMurray seat. The CPC got less than 50%

[August1991]

Maybe, more Liberals in the 905 area at the expense of the NDP. No surprise the Liberals retained Scarborough-Agincourt, it's been solid Liberal for decades.

This is the key question, and it concerns "vote rich" Ontario.

If the federal NDP vote collapses in Ontario, or the federal Liberals manage to move credibly Leftish, then the Tories will not benefit from a sufficiently split vote. As a bridge player would say after losing an ambitious contract, "The trump cards were badly split."

====

I don't follow Ontario provincial politics well enough to know but I found Wynne's majority surprising. The old Liberal game was to appeal to leftists and wannabe-winners. I reckon Horwath lost too many Leftists, and too many immigrants saw the NDP/PCs as losers.

In the 2015 federal election in Ontario, will Mulcair lose some leftists to Trudeau Jnr (possible) and will Harper be perceived as a loser (possible)? If so, Harper won't gain enough from new seats in the West to overcome his (possible) losses in Ontario.

My prediction? I reckon that Trudeau Jnr will show us his inner Leftist in the months to come. It will be Justin offers better pension/health care/circus treats than Thomas.

Edited July 1, 2014 by August1991

[WWWTT]

If the federal NDP vote collapses in Ontario, or the federal Liberals manage to move credibly Leftish, then the Tories will not benefit from a sufficiently split vote. As a bridge player would say after losing an ambitious contract, "The trump cards were badly split."

====

I don't follow Ontario provincial politics well enough to know but I found Wynne's majority surprising. The old Liberal game was to appeal to leftists and wannabe-winners. I reckon Horwath lost too many Leftists, and too many immigrants saw the NDP/PCs as losers.

In the 2015 federal election in Ontario, will Mulcair lose some leftists to Trudeau Jnr (possible) and will Harper be perceived as a loser (possible)? If so, Harper won't gain enough from new seats in the West to overcome his (possible) losses in Ontario.

My prediction? I reckon that Trudeau Jnr will show us his inner Leftist in the months to come. It will be Justin offers better pension/health care/circus treats than Thomas.

Not often you and I agree but here's a comment where we do!

There's an ONDP convention coming up in the late fall early winter. And I suspect the anti Horwath crowd's silence is hiding their numbers.

If Horwath is de throned, it will be because she isn't left enough. Then look for Mulcair's tone to swing back to the left.

WWWTT

[PIK]

Apparently JT tried really hard to win the Fort McMurray seat. The CPC got less than 50%

Because of liberal governments in the east that has destroyed the economy, forced liberals to the west for great paying jobs and then they vote liberal ,who in turn want to screw the west again. Shows how stupid liberals can be.

[Bob Macadoo]

Because of liberal governments in the east that has destroyed the economy, forced liberals to the west for great paying jobs and then they vote liberal ,who in turn want to screw the west again. Shows how stupid liberals can be.

That made as much sense as a fart in a windstorm.....come again?

[PIK]

In other words , don't bite the hand that feeds you.

[overthere]

A reason that the Liberals struggle hard to win any seats in Alberta(and they usually had a few, including Deputy Prime Minster Anne Mclelland during Chretien times) is that the provincial Liberal leader is a certified idiot. His name is Raj Sherman. I know the fed and prorovincial parties are not joined at the hip, but his presence is certainly no help at all.

[cybercoma]

It's quite remarkable how strong the CPC record has been in by-elections. They've maintained 7 seats, gained 4, and lost only one since they've been in power.

The CPC's vote share was crushed in these byelections. Fort Mc didn't even get a majority vote for CPC. That should worry Harper.

[Boges]

The CPC's vote share was crushed in these byelections. Fort Mc didn't even get a majority vote for CPC. That should worry Harper.

Yeah but the voter turnout was very low. I'd imagine it would be far better in a general election.

JT put a lot of effort into that race and still got trounced.

[Derek 2.0]

The CPC's vote share was crushed in these byelections. Fort Mc didn't even get a majority vote for CPC. That should worry Harper.

What is worrying the Harper Conservatives, especially in “safe” Tory ridings is a sharp reduction in internal support amongst what is thought to be core supporters…….This has lead to not only a decline in votes, but also donations of both time and money…..

Now said disenfranchised Tories will not vote for another mainstream political party, they will stay home or vote Libertarian, so in effect, they are not really in play for the other parties, but their diminished support will effect the Tories in tighter, namely rural ridings........The very same thing that is happening now, which can still be reversed, happened to the PC party under Kim Campbell in namely Western Canada and helped lead to the rise of Reform......and of course said issue became a major plank for the party for the next two decades.

[Boges]

So you're saying this will be 1993 all over again.

I just hope they name the new party Reform 2.0

[Derek 2.0]

So you're saying this will be 1993 all over again.

I just hope they name the new party Reform 2.0

I'm not saying that it will be 1993 over again, but that it could be 1993 over again.......It’s all dependant on what changes to Bill C-68 are tabled both in the Fall and promised for after the next election.

This, in all honesty, is the only concern that has shaken my confidence in the Government returning to Majority status next year.