US Government Induced Drought

[waldo]

Soon someone will want to build turtles tunnels under roads. Oh wait that has already happened here.

yup, eco-passages... they work quite well in protecting animals, including the one's driving vehicles over those passages that, without them, might otherwise have the potential to crash their vehicles.

[On Guard for Thee]

Yep, you sure don't, btw, the oil that comes out of the ground that gets turned into CO2, that benefits you as much as anyone else, the difference being that in your imagination we can have the lives we do without it and the asociated pollution, and if right wingers are fooling themselves over climate change you are equally as foolish for thinking we can live like we do without it. You dont understand, the argument goes right past you and anyone else who thinks like you do, meanwhile the best alternative we have in nuclear has been vilified by another version of eco nut, even so far as forcing Germany to burn more very dirty coal.

I suspect if we all stuck our heads in the sand like that we'd never have emerged from the cave. you know, maybe we need to read those tea leaves and make another plan.

[bleeding heart]

Reading tea-leaves is for eco-nuts and commies, and effete British Lords. Real men throw the bones or poke around in entrails to determine the future.

Edited February 20, 2014 by bleeding heart

[PIK]

yup, eco-passages... they work quite well in protecting animals, including the one's driving vehicles over those passages that, without them, might otherwise have the potential to crash their vehicles.

If hitting a turtle is going to make you crash, please hand in your licence to the nearest office.

[Wilber]

If hitting a turtle is going to make you crash, please hand in your licence to the nearest office.

It's often the people who try to miss wildlife who crash.

[Smallc]

If hitting a turtle is going to make you crash, please hand in your licence to the nearest office.

So...we should do nothing to protect wildlife?

[waldo]

If hitting a turtle is going to make you crash, please hand in your licence to the nearest office.

the tunnels are not typically built just for turtles... but if so, it's because the number of turtles crossing is significant (as might reflect upon a migration path). Of course, whether large or small turtles, enough of them getting hit by vehicles will really slick the road/highway up and raising a potential for crash/injury. Of course, eco-passages come in many flavours... if you've travelled the Trans Canada through Banff National Park, you will have seen several of the following (that include miles of fencing to help steer animals to the cross-over points.

[GostHacked]

Waldo, I did see those thing when in Banff a couple years ago. A win for motorists, and a win for wildlife.

[waldo]

the Banff passages were a big-ticket item, but a necessity given the amount of wildlife that's there. Many passages (tunnels) are typically not much more than culverts... for things like turtles, alligators, etc.; passages that really aren't a huge expenditure, particularly when balanced against possible injury/death related to vehicle accidents.

I know 2 guys that have totalled their vehicles, both hitting a moose... I saw a pic of one of the vehicles and couldn't believe the guy made it out relatively unscathed.

[WestCoastRunner]

the Banff passages were a big-ticket item, but a necessity given the amount of wildlife that's there. Many passages (tunnels) are typically not much more than culverts... for things like turtles, alligators, etc.; passages that really aren't a huge expenditure, particularly when balanced against possible injury/death related to vehicle accidents.

I know 2 guys that have totalled their vehicles, both hitting a moose... I saw a pic of one of the vehicles and couldn't believe the guy made it out relatively unscathed.

There are also overpasses that the animals use. The have been monitoring these for a while and have finally determined that indeed the grizzlies and black bears are using the passages to find their mates. They were concerned that inbreeding would result but finally they are looking for love on the other side, although it took about 5 years for them to get used to them.

[WestCoastRunner]

Just to add one more note to the above: They discovered that a male black bear male mated with at least five different females and fathered at least 11 offspring while crossing back and forth. And I bet he didn't pay cub support!

[waldo]

There are also overpasses that the animals use. The have been monitoring these for a while and have finally determined that indeed the grizzlies and black bears are using the passages to find their mates. They were concerned that inbreeding would result but finally they are looking for love on the other side, although it took about 5 years for them to get used to them.

yup; but more so for black bears than grizzlies...

Parentage tests showed that 47% of black bears and 27% of grizzly bears that used crossings successfully bred, including multiple males and females of both species. Differentiating between dispersal and gene flow is difficult, but we documented gene flow by showing migration, reproduction and genetic admixture. We conclude that wildlife crossings allow sufficient gene flow to prevent genetic isolation.[/size]

[bush_cheney2004]

There are no wild grizzly bears in drought stricken California. Last one was shot in 1922.

[waldo]

There are no wild grizzly bears in drought stricken California.

so what? Any black/brown bears? The eco-passage point was member PIK's... as he thought to (further) denigrate an environmental aspect with his "turtle tunnel" reference.

[Wilber]

The whole Coquihalla is fenced with wildlife underpasses. It was done during the initial construction.

[PIK]

the tunnels are not typically built just for turtles... but if so, it's because the number of turtles crossing is significant (as might reflect upon a migration path). Of course, whether large or small turtles, enough of them getting hit by vehicles will really slick the road/highway up and raising a potential for crash/injury. Of course, eco-passages come in many flavours... if you've travelled the Trans Canada through Banff National Park, you will have seen several of the following (that include miles of fencing to help steer animals to the cross-over points.

LOL These tunnels I am talking about are in the ottawa area built for the blanding turtle which does not belong in this area ,there habitant is farther south, but the found 1 and spent millions on him. You are to funny at times waldo.

[WestCoastRunner]

The whole Coquihalla is fenced with wildlife underpasses. It was done during the initial construction.

I didn't know that! I wonder how the avalanches are affecting them.

[jbg]

The one thing that will mitigate droughts in California a permanent feature of the state is to restore the water flow from California's water-heavy north to farmers in the central and south.

...

Californian's had their water taken from them, not by global warming, but by a federal judge, and the federal government, who put baitfish ahead of real people. But this is the way enivronmentalist extremeists work in all facets of life. They do the same with the economy as well. Destroying entire industries, like energy and manufacturing. While at the same time, bemoaning the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the loss of the middle class. It's akin to a man that beats his wife, all the while professing his love for her. This stuff has to stop.

The issue in this case is laws brought in to appease enviros no longer give politicians the power to decide whether people or creatures should be given priority. This is wrong. It is no big deal if a single species goes extinct if the economic costs of keeping it around are too high. Laws need to be written in ways that ensure that elected representatives and not the courts have the final say on these kinds of cost benefit analyses.

There's an issue you're missing and it's not your fault.

There are a huge amount more in the way of people living in Southern California than should be. The area is both a natural desert and major earthquake risk. It is only by virtue of heavy subsidization that the area is habitable by large numbers of people.

Were it not for the damming of rivers in the north, and in the Upper part of the Colorado River there would not be enough drinking water much less water for agriculture. My part of the U.S. was built before the Federal government swelled and starting shifting massive resources away from the already-developed Northeast and Upper Midwest. The "Rust Belt" became that way because of government-induced shifting of resources. The economic life was sucked out of my part of the country.

I have little sympathy. Cry me a river.

Edited February 24, 2014 by jbg

[waldo]

LOL These tunnels I am talking about are in the ottawa area built for the blanding turtle which does not belong in this area ,there habitant is farther south, but the found 1 and spent millions on him. You are to funny at times waldo.

how did I miss this? You didn't qualify either the turtle type or the location. My initial 'cursory' review suggests there are many blanding turtles in that area and I've not found anything to suggest they are not native. More pointedly, culverts installed did not cost your claimed "millions", no where near... and the initiative was taken by the City of Ottawa as a part of its 'application packaging' in an attempt to secure federal soured stimulus funding for its planned road development through an established and designated Natural Environmental Area (the 'South March Highlands'). Of course, as I read, as it turns out, little of the basis behind the Ottawa City council's development thrust has validity... traffic/population projections have subsequently be shown to be as high as 80% less than the initial figures used to substantiate the road development initiative.

more to the point, there are many threatened species (plant and animal) in that South March Highlands area... per norm, those that choose to belittle eco-passages like to source out a convenient target... in this case, you chose to isolate on the turtle.

[waldo]

finally, in recent days, rainfall... heavy rainfall with expectations of significant snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains... and given the abundance of past wildfires and the resulting prominence of burned vegetation, mudslides began.

but the rain appears very short-lived:

But as California headed into the third year of a historically bad drought, officials said the rain, as welcome as it was, would not rescue the state from its plight.“This won’t take us out of the drought, but it definitely helps,” said Kathy Hoxsie of the National Weather Service. More rain fell in Los Angeles over the course of 12 hours on Friday than had fallen over the last eight months, according to the National Weather Service.

Tim Quinn, executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies, said the state’s water supply was currently just 44 percent of average, adding that he thought it highly improbable that the state would reach its normal water supplies before the end of the rainy season in April. “If the drought created an empty gallon jug for us, this storm created a cup and half of water,” he said. “We would need 20 of those.

[waldo]

... of course, any suggestion of changing inappropriate water diversion presumes upon an existence of... water to divert in the first place. With snow packs at their minimum levels and reservoirs at 20% of 'normal' levels, do you think there's some underlying reason why, for almost 2 years now, no effective winter storms have hit northern California to help with that snowpack, to help fill some portion of those reservoirs? Is Obama responsible for the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge"... that just won't move on? What could it be that's holding that ridge firm, hey Shady?

grocery shopping earlier today - yowzers on the increased cost of produce! ... a follow-up on that "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge": a one-year perspective on the drought continuing to build over the last 3 years...

recent study (caveat - based on a single climate model): "a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity." => a high-low pressure dipole pattern that caused drought in California and frigid temperature in the East and MidWest.....

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[jbg]

We're switching to El Niño for now so this should be alleviated shortly. The problem is we're in a La Niña-prone cycle which will result in overall cooling, but favors West Coast droughts.

[waldo]

We're switching to El Niño for now so this should be alleviated shortly. The problem is we're in a La Niña-prone cycle which will result in overall cooling, but favors West Coast droughts.

so... totally natural variability then, hey? Gee, that's a surprise coming from you. Of course this study, just a single study, indicates the higher amplitude of that West-East dipole can't be explained purely as 'natural causes'... that only anthropogenic sourced GHGs can account for the its greater amplitude. But, of course, the crux of this California drought focus is the persistence factor of the ridges of high pressure (i.e., RRR... the "Ridiculously Resiliant Ridge").

and yes, the study does speak to a pattern correlation with ENSO... not direct; rather to an ENSO precursor (typically a year prior to an El Nino event), with the connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor becoming stronger since the 1970s... you know, in line with the same increase in anthropogenic sourced atmospheric GHGs. You speak with some certainty to an upcoming El Nino... for as much speculation that exists out there in that predictive regard, it includes a body of doubt that an El Nino will actually occur this fall. More pointedly, you speak in absolutes... suggesting that the California drought will simply "alleviate shortly". Even if an El Nino does occur, that speaks nothing to its strength... or that it may even turn into a neutral El Nino event. Notwithstanding, the drought has been built up over a 3 year period - a single El Nino event, if it does occur, isn't going to be enough to replenish the snowpacks and fill reservoirs back to typical levels. The heat will continue, the large demands of the increeasing population base will continue to grow... I don't read anything that suggests the end to a California drought any time 'soon'.

[jbg]

so... totally natural variability then, hey? Gee, that's a surprise coming from you. Of course this study, just a single study, indicates the higher amplitude of that West-East dipole can't be explained purely as 'natural causes'... that only anthropogenic sourced GHGs can account for the its greater amplitude. But, of course, the crux of this California drought focus is the persistence factor of the ridges of high pressure (i.e., RRR... the "Ridiculously Resiliant Ridge").

Are you saying that GHG's cause RRR's?

and yes, the study does speak to a pattern correlation with ENSO... not direct; rather to an ENSO precursor (typically a year prior to an El Nino event), with the connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor becoming stronger since the 1970s... you know, in line with the same increase in anthropogenic sourced atmospheric GHGs. You speak with some certainty to an upcoming El Nino... for as much speculation that exists out there in that predictive regard, it includes a body of doubt that an El Nino will actually occur this fall.

You are right that ENSO is less predictable during the spring. But El Niños can start in the spring. Subsurface warming seems to militate in favor of this being real.

More pointedly, you speak in absolutes... suggesting that the California drought will simply "alleviate shortly". Even if an El Nino does occur, that speaks nothing to its strength... or that it may even turn into a neutral El Nino event.

A "neutral El Niño event" is an oxymoron. The term "El Niño event" has a definition, of a certain number of degrees above normal in temperatures in certain parts of the Pacific for a certain number of rolling three (3) month periods. This index is known as the "ONI" but I guess natural events are of little interest to you.

Notwithstanding, the drought has been built up over a 3 year period - a single El Nino event, if it does occur, isn't going to be enough to replenish the snowpacks and fill reservoirs back to typical levels. The heat will continue, the large demands of the increeasing population base will continue to grow... I don't read anything that suggests the end to a California drought any time 'soon'.

You are probably right, in the current long-term PDO "cold phase" that any particular upcoming El Niño will not be a total solution. The last one, starting during the summer of 2009, lasted only until around March 2010, so was around an eight (8) month event. During the "warm phase" of 1977-2007 some El Niño events stretched for years and the La Niña interruptions, such as 1988-9, were similar in duration to the 2009-10 El Niño event.

[waldo]

Are you saying that GHG's cause RRR's?

scientists are offering evidence of a hypothesis that anthropogenic sourced GHGs (or direct/indirect related warming) are explaining amplitude shifts in jet-streams and west-east dipoles... again, shifts that can't be explained by natural variability alone. In relation to the single study I just referenced, its authors advise of the pattern existence of a dipole in relation to an ENSO event; rather, in relation to an ENSO precursor (typically a year) prior to related El Nino/La Nina events. As I said, the crux of the issue is persistence... there is significant active research ongoing to attempt to realize why the ridge 'blocking' is so pervasive and long lasting. The California ridge hadn't broken up in over a year... there was a slight breakdown in early March that allowed a few storms to reach California (as I mentioned in a prior post). These storms weren't significant or lasting and had no real impact; from what I read the ridge is once again strengthening.

perhaps you could come forward with a reputable source that speaks from a "natural variability" ONLY perspective... that can account for the persistence of the California ridge... you can do that, right?

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You are right that ENSO is less predictable during the spring. But El Niños can start in the spring. Subsurface warming seems to militate in favor of this being real.

my point was your statement held a most presumptive statement that an El Nino will occur... events are highly uncertain to occur; uncertainty that speaks to when they'll occur, how long they'll occur and their relative strength. Your statement indicating the drought would "alleviate shortly" was also highly presumptive in terms of the possible strength of the event. Fall was mentioned only in terms of most of the predictions I've seen are indicating an El Nino may begin this fall.

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A "neutral El Niño event" is an oxymoron. The term "El Niño event" has a definition, of a certain number of degrees above normal in temperatures in certain parts of the Pacific for a certain number of rolling three (3) month periods. This index is known as the "ONI" but I guess natural events are of little interest to you.

that should have read neutral ENSO event. As for what's of interest to me, I'm the guy here that's speaking to both impacts... to both natural and anthropogenic related impacts... to anthropogenic sourced GHGs (direct/indirect related warming) amplifying natural variability. You're the guy here who doesn't accept global warming has/is occurring... you're the guy here who claims it's all just a reflection on the "Earth coming out of the last Ice Age". That's you... that's what's of, as you say, "interest to you"!

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You are probably right, in the current long-term PDO "cold phase" that any particular upcoming El Niño will not be a total solution. The last one, starting during the summer of 2009, lasted only until around March 2010, so was around an eight (8) month event. During the "warm phase" of 1977-2007 some El Niño events stretched for years and the La Niña interruptions, such as 1988-9, were similar in duration to the 2009-10 El Niño event.

again, the duration is only a part of it... the level of strength within that duration is key. And again, the drought has built up to it's current severity over a three year period. No single El Nino event will do anything to counter that lengthy buildup and bring snowpack and reservoirs back to 'typical' levels.

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