Could Harper step down this summer?

[shortlived]

There's no reason he should step down. The Liberals and NDP aren't viable alternatives. The public would elect another Harper government. Albeit possibly a minority one instead of a majority. But he might even win another majority too. It'll be obvious to Canadians during the debates which leader is qualified to be PM, and which ones aren't.

Yeah but they are suppose to start balancing the deficit in their last year.. there is a point when debt to gdp ratio means there is no governmental spending, how can Canada afford another Harper Government majority?

Who wants to run a government with no tax payer money to spend?

If it went from 66% to 99% over 5 years that would put the debt to gdp ratio at 130% by the end of the next Harper government term.

Ok well it probably won't go that high without major spending on airplanes and ships and stuff, or a war in iran or something, so it probably might only go to 115% or something like that, but hold on the deficit is going to be balanced right.

Hell it only costs 5 billion dollars per year to pay the debt interest right whats another couple billion for another harper government term. ra ra! go fiscal conservatism, show the left how it is done.

LIke what is 9 billion dollars a year going to buy that Canadian tax payers want right..

They'd probably just be corporate tax deducations anyway not tax reductions for the common canadian.

Edited March 10, 2013 by shortlived

[Argus]

It'll be obvious, eh? And yet, polls consistently show that if an election were held today, your boy would get his ass kicked by a school teacher with a famous name. You just can't count on the public to do the right thing, can you.

Public polls are not really an indication of anything at this time. For one thing, Trudeau has a lot of 'fans' because he's a celebrity, but most of that kind never vote anyway. Further, he's a novelty and unknown. Give him some time in the sun and he stops being so popular. Look at Mulcair. He was 'the next big thing' once, but no more. Now it looks like legions of those who flocked to him will flock to Trudeau, who is now 'the next big thing'.

The polls that are actually important are the ones the party takes region by region and riding by riding, and are a lot more comprehensive than what you get on the national scene.

[Argus]

I have seen Mulcair speak publicly around 6-8 times in the last 9-10 months at fund raisers,council meetings,town halls and other functions.

And believe me Harper is in for it!

Mulcair has noticeably improved and is looking,sounding and acting like the next PM of Canada.

Together against Trudeau,the conservatives may find themselves in the mid 20% support spectrum!

You seem to be blithely unaware of a fairly obvious fact of politics in Canada. That being that improvements in Liberal fortunes will most directly come from defections from the NDP. As Trudeau rises in popularity, Mulcair will sink. I haven't heard Mulcair speak, but I'm betting that in any election, most of his guns will be turned on the biggest threat to his party - Trudeau.

[ReeferMadness]

Public polls are not really an indication of anything at this time. For one thing, Trudeau has a lot of 'fans' because he's a celebrity, but most of that kind never vote anyway. Further, he's a novelty and unknown. Give him some time in the sun and he stops being so popular. Look at Mulcair. He was 'the next big thing' once, but no more. Now it looks like legions of those who flocked to him will flock to Trudeau, who is now 'the next big thing'.

The polls that are actually important are the ones the party takes region by region and riding by riding, and are a lot more comprehensive than what you get on the national scene.

Sure - I'd go with that too - if I were in your situation.

The sheen is wearing off Chairman Harper's helmet haircut.

[Boges]

Trudea has no platform to speak of. These predictions of him potentially beating Harper are fantasy at this point. 2015 is a long way off and to try and predict the potential results 2 years out only prove to make people who hate Harper feel better.

Polls can show an opposition ahead going into a campaign and end up losing. So polls 2 years out when the Liberal leader hasn't even been named yet will have absolutely no bearing on a PM's decision to quit early or not.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boges

[Newfoundlander]

Poll trends never showed this.

True there were polls from time to time that showed positive results for the liberals when in opposition(official),but never trends lasting 6-8 months.

(However Martin polls I am not completely sure about)

WWWTT

Well maybe you should do some research because polls did show this, just like polls showed Mulcair leading.

[WWWTT]

Public polls are not really an indication of anything at this time. For one thing, Trudeau has a lot of 'fans' because he's a celebrity, but most of that kind never vote anyway. Further, he's a novelty and unknown. Give him some time in the sun and he stops being so popular. Look at Mulcair. He was 'the next big thing' once, but no more. Now it looks like legions of those who flocked to him will flock to Trudeau, who is now 'the next big thing'.

The polls that are actually important are the ones the party takes region by region and riding by riding, and are a lot more comprehensive than what you get on the national scene.

You seem to be blithely unaware of a fairly obvious fact of politics in Canada. That being that improvements in Liberal fortunes will most directly come from defections from the NDP. As Trudeau rises in popularity, Mulcair will sink. I haven't heard Mulcair speak, but I'm betting that in any election, most of his guns will be turned on the biggest threat to his party - Trudeau.

May the real Argus please stand up!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Well maybe you should do some research because polls did show this, just like polls showed Mulcair leading.

Poll "TRENDS".Not polls.There is a difference.

We'll see what happenss in May.

If after winning the leadership,poll numbers stay high then the liberals have something a little more concrete.

WWWTT

[CaptainChatham]

I have seen Mulcair speak publicly around 6-8 times in the last 9-10 months at fund raisers,council meetings,town halls and other functions.

And believe me Harper is in for it!

Mulcair has noticeably improved and is looking,sounding and acting like the next PM of Canada.

Together against Trudeau,the conservatives may find themselves in the mid 20% support spectrum!

These rumours of Harper resigning are of no coincidence my friend.

WWWTT

- Your posts are wildly off the mark. The one about Harper leaving this summer indicating an early election in the spring of 2014 is dead wrong because Harper has reformed the federal election process so that majority governments can only call elections every four years on fixed dates rather than to cynically call them as Chretien did in the 90s 18 months or more early due to a blip up in the opinion polls. The next election will be in October of 2015 whether Harper stays or goes.

- Your post praising Tom The Bomb Mulcair as a loyal NDP supporter who knows that the Notoriously Dumb Party (NDP) is even more generous and supine toward the monopoly public sector unions than the Liberals are is wildly off the mark because the most recent polls indicate that the Liberals under Trudeau Junior The Space Cadet are now in a slight lead over the Conservatives (enough th form a minority government) and the NDP is falling faster than a hooker's panties at a Shriners Convention and has sunk to the low 20s to give it distant third party status.

- I do not expect these polls to hold in the election campaign two and a half years from now anymore than the Liberals lead in the polls under Dion and then County Iggy held after Canadians had a full opportunity to measure these Liberal leaders against Harper and his leadership skills, economic expertise and record of results that have made him the most respected of the G7 leaders among his peers. Indeed, I expect that Harper will beat up on Trudeau Junior enough to win him another majority in 2015 with Junior and the Liberals a weak second place party. But the dream that Jack Layton gave to the NDP of being the government in waiting has died along with Layton and Mulcair and the kids from Quebec are neither fooling nor impressing anyone outside of Quebec. Indeed, I suggest you take to your NDP masters a suggestion that they change their name. Being over fifty years old now, the party is not the New Democratic Party but the Middle Aged Democratic Party. And being controlled by the 80% of the MPs coming from Quebec, many of whom are barely out of diapers and also are sovereigntists, I suggest a party name change to National Union of Teenaged Separatists or NUTS for short.

You/re welcome, always glad to help out the NDP.

[shortlived]

- Your posts are wildly off the mark. The one about Harper leaving this summer indicating an early election in the spring of 2014 is dead wrong because Harper has reformed the federal election process so that majority governments can only call elections every four years on fixed dates rather than to cynically call them as Chretien did in the 90s 18 months or more early due to a blip up in the opinion polls. The next election will be in October of 2015 whether Harper stays or goes.

- Your post praising Tom The Bomb Mulcair as a loyal NDP supporter who knows that the Notoriously Dumb Party (NDP) is even more generous and supine toward the monopoly public sector unions than the Liberals are is wildly off the mark because the most recent polls indicate that the Liberals under Trudeau Junior The Space Cadet are now in a slight lead over the Conservatives (enough th form a minority government) and the NDP is falling faster than a hooker's panties at a Shriners Convention and has sunk to the low 20s to give it distant third party status.

- I do not expect these polls to hold in the election campaign two and a half years from now anymore than the Liberals lead in the polls under Dion and then County Iggy held after Canadians had a full opportunity to measure these Liberal leaders against Harper and his leadership skills, economic expertise and record of results that have made him the most respected of the G7 leaders among his peers. Indeed, I expect that Harper will beat up on Trudeau Junior enough to win him another majority in 2015 with Junior and the Liberals a weak second place party. But the dream that Jack Layton gave to the NDP of being the government in waiting has died along with Layton and Mulcair and the kids from Quebec are neither fooling nor impressing anyone outside of Quebec. Indeed, I suggest you take to your NDP masters a suggestion that they change their name. Being over fifty years old now, the party is not the New Democratic Party but the Middle Aged Democratic Party. And being controlled by the 80% of the MPs coming from Quebec, many of whom are barely out of diapers and also are sovereigntists, I suggest a party name change to National Union of Teenaged Separatists or NUTS for short.

You/re welcome, always glad to help out the NDP.

Meh.

Nice words, where is the substance?

Mind supplying some evidence?

There are still ways that an election could occur early, such as *gasp* non confidence from within the party, perhaps spurred by a party fracture of some sort like a resigning PM, or a handful of by-elections due to retirements not going to the conservatives.

It would take something like 12 by elections, there are over 12 conservative mps in their 60's and 70's

any number of these guys might even not want to go another two years for health or other reasons, or even run in the next election due to being past normal retirement age by the end of the next term or already

Boughen, Ray Conservative Party of Canada Saskatchewan 1937.05.25 75

O'Connor, Gordon Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1939.05.18 73

Oliver, Joe Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1940.05.20 72

Tilson, David Allan Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1941.03.19 71

Fantino, Julian Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1942.08.13 70

Kent, Peter Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1943.07.27 69

Schellenberger, Gary Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1943.09.15 69

Lauzon, Guy Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1944.04.06 68

Harris, Richard M. Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1944.09.06 68

Goldring, Peter Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1944.12.12 68

Payne, LaVar Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1945.02.23 68

MacKenzie, Dave Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1946.06.12 66

Davidson, Patricia Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1946.06.30 66

Galipeau, Royal Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1947.01.05 66

Smith, Joy Conservative Party of Canada Manitoba 1947.02.20 66

Hawn, Laurie Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1947.05.11 65

Kramp, Daryl Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1947.06.14 65

Shipley, Bev Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1947.06.22 65

Kerr, Greg Conservative Party of Canada Nova Scotia 1947.10.08 65

Norlock, Rick Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1948.03.07 65 Mayes, Colin Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1948.04.11 64

Wong, Alice Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1948.06.30 64

Duncan, John Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1948.12.19 64

Chisu, Corneliu Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1949.02.13 64

O'Neill Gordon, Tilly Conservative Party of Canada New Brunswick 1949.02.16 64

Ablonczy, Diane Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1949.05.06 63

Aspin, Jay Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1949.08.19 63

Albrecht, Harold Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1949.10.15 63

Komarnicki, Ed Conservative Party of Canada Saskatchewan 1949.11.18 63

Flaherty, James Michael (Jim) Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1949.12.30 63

Warawa, Mark Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1950.05.07 62

Obhrai, Deepak Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1950.07.05 62

Benoit, Leon Earl Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1950.07.07 62

Leung, Chungsen Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1950.07.14 62

Bennett, Carolyn Liberal Party of Canada Ontario 1950.12.20 62

Sopuck, Robert Conservative Party of Canada Manitoba 1951.07.11 61

Ritz, Gerry Conservative Party of Canada Saskatchewan 1951.08.19 61

Lunney, James Conservative Party of Canada British Columbia 1951.09.05 61

Lukiwski, Tom Conservative Party of Canada Saskatchewan 1951.10.05 61

Carmichael, John Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1952.02.14 61

Menzies, Ted Conservative Party of Canada Alberta 1952.02.18 61

Valcourt, Bernard Conservative Party of Canada New Brunswick 1952.02.18 61

Ashfield, Keith Conservative Party of Canada New Brunswick 1952.03.28 60

Nicholson, Rob Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1952.04.29 60

Young, Terence H. Conservative Party of Canada Ontario 1952.07.24 60

Toews, Vic Conservative Party of Canada Manitoba 1952.09.10 60

Edited March 11, 2013 by shortlived

[Argus]

May the real Argus please stand up!

WWWTT

Not sure of your meaning. There was nothing contradictory in those quoted posts. Clearly Trudeau has re-energized the Liberals, with a lot of younger fans, but polls showing he would win a majority are, to say the least, wildly premature. However, any gains (and there are bound to be some) are going to come mostly at the expense of the NDP. that is clear. There is a lot of shared flighty voters between those two parties who move back and forth between them.

[Topaz]

As being a older boomer, If Justin takes the leadership, good for him but I would not vote for him in the next election for the PMO because he needs time to mature and the NDP leader, which I don't agree with on the senate, I would vote for him in the next election but the problem is, he may not get my vote because of the local rep maybe a Tory. Wouldn't it be different if we could voted for the leader and then voted for our MP and they wouldn't have to be from the same party???

[Signals.Cpl]

You're right. I need to get back to reading tea leaves.

Polls mean nothing...see federal election 2011 for more details... both the BQ and Liberals were doing as expected in the polls until just before the election so if the polls of 2-3 months before the election were wrong what makes you think that the polls 2 years before the election are of any value?

[Boges]

Polls mean nothing...see federal election 2011 for more details... both the BQ and Liberals were doing as expected in the polls until just before the election so if the polls of 2-3 months before the election were wrong what makes you think that the polls 2 years before the election are of any value?

Because it makes them feel better about their prospects. If you say Harper is going to loser enough times then perhaps it will happen.

[Signals.Cpl]

I am basing my opinion on polls,if the polls change then my opinion will change with it.

What are you basing your assumption on?

WWWTT

On the fact that the Liberals collapsed last election which is a pretty good indication of being on their way out... the NDP has 57% of their seats in Quebec while using MPs who are essentially seat warmers which makes it a precarious situation, considering the political relationship between Quebec and the ROC this makes the NDP position very shaky to say the least.

[PIK]

Trudeau will have to survive 2 years in the house where harper and mulcair will show the rest of the country what a lite weight he is ,all hair no substance. And all those young voters, good luck getting them to the polls. If the libs pick justin, they don't deserve to be in power. It shows they don't care about the country, just about getting the power back. So who will be the actual leader if it did happen, Rae. McCullum, goodale?

Edited March 12, 2013 by PIK

[August1991]

Journalist Steve Paiken thinks there's a very good chance that he would because he turns 54 on April 30th and he still young enough to go on to others things. He wouldn't have to worry about money since his pension kicks in at 55. There 's also could be problems at home, there's been rumors of the Mrs and a RMCP, and Ben getting ready for university and they all might want to return to Alberta and maybe Harepr would like the be the Premier. Thoughts?

Steve Paiken, and the CP journalist who wrote this, are idiots.

---

Several years ago, I recall creating such a thread here based on such a premise. (Search and link, if you want.)

Edited March 14, 2013 by August1991

[WWWTT]

- Your posts are wildly off the mark. The one about Harper leaving this summer indicating an early election in the spring of 2014 is dead wrong because Harper has reformed the federal election process so that majority governments can only call elections every four years on fixed dates rather than to cynically call them as Chretien did in the 90s 18 months or more early due to a blip up in the opinion polls. The next election will be in October of 2015 whether Harper stays or goes.

- Your post praising Tom The Bomb Mulcair as a loyal NDP supporter who knows that the Notoriously Dumb Party (NDP) is even more generous and supine toward the monopoly public sector unions than the Liberals are is wildly off the mark because the most recent polls indicate that the Liberals under Trudeau Junior The Space Cadet are now in a slight lead

But the dream that Jack Layton gave to the NDP of being the government in waiting has died along with Layton and Mulcair and the kids from Quebec are neither fooling nor impressing anyone outside of Quebec. Indeed, I suggest you take to your NDP masters a suggestion that they change their name. Being over fifty years old now, the party is not the New Democratic Party but the Middle Aged Democratic Party. And being controlled by the 80% of the MPs coming from Quebec, many of whom are barely out of diapers and also are sovereigntists, I suggest a party name change to National Union of Teenaged Separatists or NUTS for short.

You/re welcome, always glad to help out the NDP.

Man that's one long winded comment that breaks several forum rules.

Guess you're going to be one of those posters that learns the hard way.

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

On the fact that the Liberals collapsed last election which is a pretty good indication of being on their way out... the NDP has 57% of their seats in Quebec while using MPs who are essentially seat warmers which makes it a precarious situation, considering the political relationship between Quebec and the ROC this makes the NDP position very shaky to say the least.

I think you are confusing the liberals with the bloq

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Polls mean nothing...see federal election 2011 for more details... both the BQ and Liberals were doing as expected in the polls until just before the election so if the polls of 2-3 months before the election were wrong what makes you think that the polls 2 years before the election are of any value?

Actually the polls in regards to all parties have been very accurate!

From time to time there are surprises that upset people.But this does not mean that the polls are inaccurate(to within the margin of error).

The big poll number right now that conservatives want to ignore is the Harper approval rating!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Because it makes them feel better about their prospects. If you say Harper is going to loser enough times then perhaps it will happen.

Denial!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Not sure of your meaning. There was nothing contradictory in those quoted posts. Clearly Trudeau has re-energized the Liberals, with a lot of younger fans, but polls showing he would win a majority are, to say the least, wildly premature. However, any gains (and there are bound to be some) are going to come mostly at the expense of the NDP. that is clear. There is a lot of shared flighty voters between those two parties who move back and forth between them.

I agree that at this time,any poll showing Justin winning a majority has got to be wrong?!?!

After he takes the reigns,the honeymoon will drop fast!(but we will have to see what the polls say)

If you think that the new found liberal growth will come at the NDP expense,you seem to forget that the Harper majority came at the expense of about 4-5% support that left the liberals literally overnight to the conservatives!

WWWTT

[Argus]

If you think that the new found liberal growth will come at the NDP expense,you seem to forget that the Harper majority came at the expense of about 4-5% support that left the liberals literally overnight to the conservatives!

Not entirely. That helped, but all the liberals abandoning the party for the NDP helped more. That let the Conservatives slip through the middle in many places.

[WWWTT]

Haven't seen many poll results that backs what you are claiming.

If anything,there is more of a split on the right between the conservatives and liberals.

WWWTT

[PIK]

Tommy is doing his best to sink the NDP, he needs no help from anyone.