Conservatives Dominate 37/40 polls

[Signals.Cpl]

Just saying.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/

Seems that polls have consistently been dominated by the conservatives since the election last year and we have a few years to go. Seems to me its too early for the NDP to be celebrating any victory when they are trailing most of the time.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Signals.Cpl

[The_Squid]

Most of those polls have the Conservatives and NDP in a statistical tie.

[Bryan]

Just saying.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/

Seems that polls have consistently been dominated by the conservatives since the election last year and we have a few years to go. Seems to me its too early for the NDP to be celebrating any victory when they are trailing most of the time.

It's fair game for NDP supporters to celebrate their recent upturn in the polls. CPC supporters do the same when the numbers are in their favour. As long as the NDPers temper their glee by remembering that both Dion and Ignatieff had surges in the polls when they were installed as opposition leaders. This far from an election, polls don't mean much other than a morale boost for whatever team is currently ahead. I'm particularly interested to see if the surge in the polls also results in more donations for the NDP. If it does, that might actually mean something long term.

[TheNewTeddy]

Clue: It's the end of May right now, not the beginning of April.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls

Try this.

You'll note each entry comes with a link to prove it's authentic.

Polls since your website stopped updating show the NDP beating the CPC 6 polls to 5.

Just saying.

Tip: and I mean this is the nicest possible way. But if you are going to be arrogant about something, know what you are talking about and have correct, accurate, and up-to-date information.

Otherwise you'll quickly be made to look foolish.

[Bryan]

Clue: It's the end of May right now, not the beginning of April.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls

Try this.

You'll note each entry comes with a link to prove it's authentic.

Polls since your website stopped updating show the NDP beating the CPC 6 polls to 5.

Tip: and I mean this is the nicest possible way. But if you are going to be arrogant about something, know what you are talking about and have correct, accurate, and up-to-date information.

Otherwise you'll quickly be made to look foolish.

Many polls right before the last election also claimed the CPC would get substantially less support than they did. CPC real support is almost always higher than what the polls say, NDP's is almost always lower.

Take a look at the numbers leading up to the election:

Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election 2011

Not much different than now.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Bryan

[bleeding heart]

Personally, I feel this is all a mug's game. I think Bryan nailed it: the most significant factor is morale boosting (or lowering, as the case may be).

Certainly, the NDP's rise has been surprising, not least to long-time NDP supporters.

But I place little credence in the polls...not because I'm wise and above it all, but just because they don't...feel like much, to me, personally.

We'll see how things play out in the next election.

[Signals.Cpl]

Clue: It's the end of May right now, not the beginning of April.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls

Try this.

You'll note each entry comes with a link to prove it's authentic.

Polls since your website stopped updating show the NDP beating the CPC 6 polls to 5.

Tip: and I mean this is the nicest possible way. But if you are going to be arrogant about something, know what you are talking about and have correct, accurate, and up-to-date information.

Otherwise you'll quickly be made to look foolish.

And if you see the trend, Conservatives go down and then go up, NDP go down and then go up, What you can take away from these polls is that they mean nothing. There are significant drops in one poll only to rebound a week or 2 later. Now imagine what the landscape is going to be in a year, or 2 or 3.

If you have a poll that shows the NDP trailing the Conservatives significantly or vice versa it means nothing, my ultimate point is that the NDP supporters tend to celebrate irrelevant victories and try to put them in the light that Canadians are shifting to support them.If you think that the polls of this year matter in the election of 2015 then you are seriously in need of a reality check.

[Signals.Cpl]

Personally, I feel this is all a mug's game. I think Bryan nailed it: the most significant factor is morale boosting (or lowering, as the case may be).

Certainly, the NDP's rise has been surprising, not least to long-time NDP supporters.

But I place little credence in the polls...not because I'm wise and above it all, but just because they don't...feel like much, to me, personally.

We'll see how things play out in the next election.

Well if we put the polls in a chart we can see significant gain or drop in 2-3 week period so that speaks nothing for the value of these polls in say 3 years.

[waldo]

What you can take away from these polls is that they mean nothing.

oh... really... is that why you created this thread?

Just saying.

Seems that polls have consistently been dominated by the conservatives since the election last year and we have a few years to go. Seems to me its too early for the NDP to be celebrating any victory when they are trailing most of the time.

[Signals.Cpl]

oh... really... is that why you created this thread?

Yeah, kind of like a reply to the NDP leads in the polls threads. Please tell me how the NDP leading in the polls in 2012 will help them win an election in 2015?

Up until a few weeks before last election the NDP was third place and the Liberals were second place, now explain why it can't happen to the conservatives, the NDP or any other party? And honestly, most NDP supporters are counting on the F-35 and the robocalls to be weapons next election, but that being 3 years from now what are the chances that those subjects will still be relevant? we could have a whole host of other things that bring down the Conservatives, or the NDP or just bury the Liberals. The BQ could gain back most of their seats or the Greens could gain many more seats. Polls in 2012 might have some value, but they do not show anything about the outcome of the 2015 election, the NDP can be leading the Conservatives by a significant margin in 100% of the polls over the next 3 years, but what would that mean on election day? Would it mean that the conservatives cannot score some victories in an election campaign to win the swing vote?

There are hardcore NDP supporters and Hardcore Conservative supporters, and a large number of swing votes. Depending on when you conduit the polls that swing vote might go either way.

[Boges]

Polls only matter to someone when they support there own opinion. Otherwise polls mean nothing.

I personally don't believe in polls, but they do play a factor in how people vote. I wish they would be banned during election campaigns.

3 years away from an election these polls are even more irrelevant. The CPC has had a series of problems lately but they have 3 years to smooth over their public opinion. If the economy improves, like it should, people won't care too much about Robocalls or F-35's in 2015.

We don't know who the Liberal leader is, Mulclair hasn't really been truly attacked by CPC yet so all this speculation is useless.

I do hope Bob Rae stays on as the Liberal leader BTW. An NDP leader who used to be a Liberal and a Liberal leader who used to be a Dipper is pretty hilarious.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Boges

[Topaz]

There were reports from the last election that the Alliance/Tories made it because of Toronto, my question is can the Harper gang stay in power without TO? We also have to look at what the A/T's have done since the election, changes to OAS, GIS, EI, the spending spree their MP's enjoy, F-35 and they way they govern, like the 420 budget bill and the 1.2 Mil unemployed and growing. In a HONEST election, I'm not sure they could hold on to a majority and maybe minority if they are lucky.

[Boges]

There were reports from the last election that the Alliance/Tories made it because of Toronto, my question is can the Harper gang stay in power without TO? We also have to look at what the A/T's have done since the election, changes to OAS, GIS, EI, the spending spree their MP's enjoy, F-35 and they way they govern, like the 420 budget bill and the 1.2 Mil unemployed and growing. In a HONEST election, I'm not sure they could hold on to a majority and maybe minority if they are lucky.

Not Toronto. They won a handful of surprise seats like beating Iggy seats. I think that's the seat that was recently overturned by a court right?

The 905/715 is the key to a lot of the seats the Tories won in the last election. If you look at the map only the controversial riding of Guelph (Pierre Poutine FTW) went Liberal.

Lots of "ethnic" riding went Conservative. Minorities who used to be a lock for the Liberals went en masse to the CPC.

[Signals.Cpl]

There were reports from the last election that the Alliance/Tories made it because of Toronto, my question is can the Harper gang stay in power without TO? We also have to look at what the A/T's have done since the election, changes to OAS, GIS, EI, the spending spree their MP's enjoy, F-35 and they way they govern, like the 420 budget bill and the 1.2 Mil unemployed and growing. In a HONEST election, I'm not sure they could hold on to a majority and maybe minority if they are lucky.

And the NDP depends on Quebec, there is an inherent danger with being a federal party with most of your support in Quebec.

Right now the Conservatives might not win a majority, but we don't know what will happen in 3 years time, we could see Quebec swinging back to BQ or the Liberals, the NDP has to fight to protect their strongpoint of Quebec and that could prove to push away people from voting for them in the ROC.

[mentalfloss]

And the NDP depends on Quebec, there is an inherent danger with being a federal party with most of your support in Quebec.

Right now the Conservatives might not win a majority, but we don't know what will happen in 3 years time, we could see Quebec swinging back to BQ or the Liberals, the NDP has to fight to protect their strongpoint of Quebec and that could prove to push away people from voting for them in the ROC.

Actually, this is starting to change as the NDP now have BC support and soon Ontario. They already have the Atlantic side as well.

[Signals.Cpl]

Actually, this is starting to change as the NDP now have BC support and soon Ontario. They already have the Atlantic side as well.

How long would that last? One major issue that pits ROC vs Quebec and the NDP is screwed, choose Quebec lose the rest, chose the other provinces lose Quebec.

And all those things that are supposedly pushing people to the NDP camp all depend on the context at the time, robocalls won't matter if the people are happy with the state of the country,one event and F-35's won't matter. If the Conservatives are running the country well, the budget is balanced on election year, the swing vote just might stick with the Conservatives.

[MiddleClassCentrist]

Many polls right before the last election also claimed the CPC would get substantially less support than they did. CPC real support is almost always higher than what the polls say, NDP's is almost always lower.

Take a look at the numbers leading up to the election:

Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election 2011

Not much different than now.

If the high number of conservatives who need to be found government jobs because they don't actually have real work to do says anything, there are a high number of conservatives without any real skills and need to be given public sector jobs or risk being unemployed after a failed election attempt.

Unemployed people have a lot of time to make sure they vote.

Edited May 29, 2012 by MiddleClassCentrist

[mentalfloss]

How long would that last? One major issue that pits ROC vs Quebec and the NDP is screwed, choose Quebec lose the rest, chose the other provinces lose Quebec.

And all those things that are supposedly pushing people to the NDP camp all depend on the context at the time, robocalls won't matter if the people are happy with the state of the country,one event and F-35's won't matter. If the Conservatives are running the country well, the budget is balanced on election year, the swing vote just might stick with the Conservatives.

That's why Mulcair is making his attack early, on the economic side of things.

The NDP spin will be to convince Canadians that Conservative economic policy is short-lived and unsustainable.

Edited May 29, 2012 by mentalfloss

[Signals.Cpl]

That's why Mulcair is making his attack early, on the economic side of things.

The NDP spin will be to convince Canadians that Conservative economic policy is short-lived and unsustainable.

Good, they can try but doesn't matter many will bite. If the government is doing its job properly then there would be no problem mainly because the NDP can spin the economy any which way they want but it will not help if the outlook is great. If global economy takes a dive and Canada still comes out of it better then most good luck painting the policy unsustainable. And the other thing is telling the people how you can and will do a different, better job. Now with Greece, Portugal, ireland and potentially some larger nations facing serious debt problems Canadians might be much more vigilant about the debt and not get too carried away with all the promises the parties have.

[WWWTT]

And the NDP depends on Quebec, there is an inherent danger with being a federal party with most of your support in Quebec.

Right now the Conservatives might not win a majority, but we don't know what will happen in 3 years time, we could see Quebec swinging back to BQ or the Liberals, the NDP has to fight to protect their strongpoint of Quebec and that could prove to push away people from voting for them in the ROC.

Very odd/wrong comment.

It sounds like you are not familiar with the 1993 federal election.

In that election Cretien/liberals won every single seat in Ontario!

And by the time the liberals lost Ontario their party was reduced to 30 odd seats!

I do not have time to research this but I believe that the only Canadian province to stubbornly support a single party is Alberta.

WWWTT

[dre]

Good, they can try but doesn't matter many will bite. If the government is doing its job properly then there would be no problem mainly because the NDP can spin the economy any which way they want but it will not help if the outlook is great. If global economy takes a dive and Canada still comes out of it better then most good luck painting the policy unsustainable. And the other thing is telling the people how you can and will do a different, better job. Now with Greece, Portugal, ireland and potentially some larger nations facing serious debt problems Canadians might be much more vigilant about the debt and not get too carried away with all the promises the parties have.

Someone concerned with debt isnt going to vote Conservative either though.

[TheNewTeddy]

What I take away from these polls is our politics is "stuck"

The Tories can't seem to get a majority coalition of voters back together because of all the mini scandals they keep having.

The NDP can't seem to build the trust and convince enough "progressives" to vote for them they they could win a majority.

And the Liberals can't seem to regain their momentum and return as the main alternative to the sitting government of the day.

Beyond that

The Bloc is unable to appeal to Quebecois, and even when the NDP is down in Quebec, it's the Liberals and Tories who are up.

And the Greens, who at one time regularly polled between 10% and 12%, are stuck near the 7% range, and not budging.

Then again, remember, that from the 2004 election to the middle of the 2006 election, we were "stuck"

From the middle of the 2006 election to the middle of the 2008 election, we were again "stuck"

From the end of the "coalition thing" to the middle of the 2011 election, again, we were "stuck"

I have no doubt that sometime in 2015 the polls will move, but ATM, they are not moving much at all.

[punked]

Good, they can try but doesn't matter many will bite. If the government is doing its job properly then there would be no problem mainly because the NDP can spin the economy any which way they want but it will not help if the outlook is great. If global economy takes a dive and Canada still comes out of it better then most good luck painting the policy unsustainable. And the other thing is telling the people how you can and will do a different, better job. Now with Greece, Portugal, ireland and potentially some larger nations facing serious debt problems Canadians might be much more vigilant about the debt and not get too carried away with all the promises the parties have.

France came out better then most countries in Europe. Guess what? Conservative government bit the dust because no one cares what is happening in Spain when you can't get a job. Sorry.

Edited May 30, 2012 by punked

[Signals.Cpl]

Very odd/wrong comment.

It sounds like you are not familiar with the 1993 federal election.

In that election Cretien/liberals won every single seat in Ontario!

And by the time the liberals lost Ontario their party was reduced to 30 odd seats!

I do not have time to research this but I believe that the only Canadian province to stubbornly support a single party is Alberta.

WWWTT

How does that make my comment wrong? At this moment the NDP depends on Quebec, 59/103 seats are from Quebec, 22/103 seats are from Ontario. The election of 1993 has nothing to do with this, NDP has Quebec, and thus they have to protect said stronghold therefore it might come in to conflict with trying to make inroads in other provinces if an issue were to pit Quebec against Ontario, the Maritimes or the RoC in general.

What does what the Liberals did in 93 have to do with my comment?

[Evening Star]

I do not have time to research this but I believe that the only Canadian province to stubbornly support a single party is Alberta.

Prior to 1984, I believe that the Liberals won at least a plurality, usually a majority, in Quebec in every election but one. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.