NDP ahead

[jacee]

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/28/ndp-making-huge-gains-as-canada-tilts-leftward-poll

Monday, May 28, 2012 The Canadian public is on a distinct tilt to the left, says a new national public opinion poll, suggesting concern over wealth distribution has traction beyond the Occupy tents and protest parades

The nationwide poll suggests the New Democratic Party would form a minority federal government if this were election day and a strong majority of Canadians believe the country suffers from an income gap, where the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor.

he nationwide poll suggests the New Democratic Party would form a minority federal government if this were election day and a strong majority of Canadians believe the country suffers from an income gap, where the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor.

The wide-ranging Forum Poll for the National Post sought the opinions of a sample of Canadians of voting age and found the NDP was the declared preference of more than one-third, compared to less than one-third who chose the Conservative Party and one- fifth the Liberal Party. The voting intentions, if actual ballots would translate into a minority government for the NDP, says Forum Research Inc.’s president Lorne Bozinoff. The NDP would capture 138 seats in the 308-seat parliament, up from the 103 they currently hold. The Conservatives, who won a majority government last election with 166 seats, would be reduced to 123 seats. The Liberals would take 42 seats ...

Stephen Harper is pushing the country left.

Edited May 28, 2012 by jacee

[mentalfloss]

That explains why the cons are paying so much to fuel the dutch disease criticism and Mulcair's mortgage life.

Edited May 28, 2012 by mentalfloss

[Rick]

Tom Mulcair, the NDP leader, also captured the highest approval rating among national party leaders, with 41% of those polled giving him a positive rating. Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister, was given a nod of approval by 33%, the same as Liberal leader Bob Rae.

That pretty much kills the Harper fans ammunition of how nobody would ever vote for Bob Rae based on his record since Harper himself is thought of as being no better than Rae.

[wyly]

That explains why the cons are paying so much to fuel the dutch disease criticism and Mulcair's mortgage life.

poll also implied support for Mulcairs dutch disease- "45% of respondents said a low Canadian dollar that supports manufacturing was better for the country than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports, compared to 35% who disagreed."

[eyeball]

The Canadian public is on a distinct tilt to the left, says a new national public opinion poll, suggesting concern over wealth distribution has traction beyond the Occupy tents and protest parades

I really saw this demonstrated recently in comments I heard in my community about the recent report of poachers taking an 800 year old cedar tree on the WCVI. The most common refrain I heard was "who would do such a thing"? I lost count of the number of negative reactions I effectively neutralized by simply suggesting it was someone who probably just had bills to pay and kids to feed. An 11 foot wide cedar is worth many thousands of dollars in the right hands and it's probably safe to say that money will be circulated locally to a far greater extent than it would have if some corporation had cut and shipped the thing to China.

More power to these Robin Hood's I say, they're soon going to be the real hero's of BC's economy - like our marijuana industry, without which our province would definitely be a have not province.

[Canuckistani]

We've seen how wrong polls can be in the Alberta election. MY guess is that an election right now would return a minority CPC govt.

Govt's defeat themselves. Depending on how the economy goes, so go the fortunes of Harper. And of course govts just get stale and corrupt, as the drip drip drip of the Harper govts missteps continue so will their fortunes decline. And lastly, maybe what the poll is talking about - as Harper tries to pull the country right, if he pulls too hard he'll lose support.

Mulcair has a lot riding on him too - he has to prove himself. We can see he's no smiling Jack. Hard to say if his dutch disease move was clever politicking or will backfire on him. But it's going to be a different NDP under him, one that's willing to kick ass. He has the same problem as Harper tho, trying to keep his fundamentalists quiet, not come out with boneheaded ideas. Canadians aren't pretty centrist economically, they're not going to go for some of the nutty stuff the NDP can come up with.

[mentalfloss]

We've seen how wrong polls can be in the Alberta election. MY guess is that an election right now would return a minority CPC govt.

Govt's defeat themselves. Depending on how the economy goes, so go the fortunes of Harper. And of course govts just get stale and corrupt, as the drip drip drip of the Harper govts missteps continue so will their fortunes decline. And lastly, maybe what the poll is talking about - as Harper tries to pull the country right, if he pulls too hard he'll lose support.

Mulcair has a lot riding on him too - he has to prove himself. We can see he's no smiling Jack. Hard to say if his dutch disease move was clever politicking or will backfire on him. But it's going to be a different NDP under him, one that's willing to kick ass. He has the same problem as Harper tho, trying to keep his fundamentalists quiet, not come out with boneheaded ideas. Canadians aren't pretty centrist economically, they're not going to go for some of the nutty stuff the NDP can come up with.

I think a vote right now would bring a Harper minority as well, but that doesn't deligitimize the polls. It just means that a lot of people change their minds once they are ready to vote. That said, a poll can be a fairly accurate representation of the vote - Ontario's last election comes to mind.

Edited May 28, 2012 by mentalfloss

[Moonbox]

Yeah these mid-term polls are always sooo accurate...

[Boges]

If the NDP had trouble finding legit people to run in Quebec.

Imagine them trying to find legit people to run nationally?

[Canuckistani]

If the NDP had trouble finding legit people to run in Quebec.

Imagine them trying to find legit people to run nationally?

Vs the dinosaurs the CPC has fronted?

[Boges]

Vs the dinosaurs the CPC has fronted?

Ageism FTW

[mentalfloss]

Yeah these mid-term polls are always sooo accurate...

It'll be a safer bet later on in the term when the Tories are down by 10 points.

[Boges]

It'll be a safer bet later on in the term when the Tories are down by 10 points.

Depends, McDalton was down to Tim Hudak by like 10 points in the Summer before the October election.

We don't know who the Liberal leader will be or how effective a campaigner Mulclair is. Lots of variables at play.

I doubt Robocall and F-35s will be as contentious in 2015 as they are now.

[Rick]

It'll be a safer bet later on in the term when the Tories are down by 10 points.

This is a continuing trend isn't it. Canadians are finally seeing Harper for the megalomaniac that he is and have had enough of his party's neo-fascist ways.

[Canuckistani]

This is a continuing trend isn't it. Canadians are finally seeing Harper for the megalomaniac that he is and have had enough of his party's neo-fascist ways.

It's a trend with any govt. They get old, pile up the missteps and finally are pushed out. And it's a function of the electorate not being able to handle the truth. We're always falling for somebody who promises something for nothing. Lower taxes without loss of govt services we all want. Business choking policies without job losses. etc.

[mentalfloss]

Depends, McDalton was down to Tim Hudak by like 10 points in the Summer before the October election.

That's because Dim Whodat gave McSquinteye the win.

Anything is possible, but the NDP have been impeccably good at framing the discussion and even the dutch bomb isn't bringing them down.

Edited May 28, 2012 by mentalfloss

[Claudius]

Monday, May 28, 2012 The Canadian public is on a distinct tilt to the left, says a new national public opinion poll,

Stephen Harper is pushing the country left.

I voted NDP last federal election and I'm likely to do it again in the next election but these stories that constantly come out claiming that the country is tilting left/right are an exercise in madness. Complete bunk. I mean even if we read the first sentence there: Are we to assume the entire fabric of the country tilts left or right with every new poll? Total bunk.

Canada in terms of social politics is a nation more liberal than ABBA. It has been inching left (socially) for 50 years regardless of which government is in power, while hanging on to more conservative economic policies (bank regulations conservative in nature despite what any party with the name says). As Canadians we generally consider this status quo to be "central", most consider themselves central and then there are just those we consider to be to the left or the right of our political leanings, but in a relative sense to other nations we are pretty liberal, liberal but not "too liberal".

As a result whatever government ends up winning is usually pretty close to the status quo. If it isn't they don't win, and if they do win the party changes itself or it won't last.

Don't believe me? Okay, consider the current, "neocon, ultra-right wing, religiously fundamentalist extremist" government (hardy-har-har). That characterization sounds really cool, especially to their opponents but on paper it's BS. Are we to maintain that this is the same "neocon-ultra-right wing-religiously-fundamentalist-extremist" government that stood up in front of the entire nation only 3 months ago to validate all gay marriages past present and future in Canada in a way no previous party ever did? That makes them slightly left of Obama, not "neocon-ultra-right wing-religiously-fundamentalist-extremist". That's how the conservatives played it. Like every party that wins they toned down their more extreme elements and concentrated on being more "centralist".

The Liberal party on the other hand isn't(wasn't?) even a "liberal" party at all but that brand name carries a lot of weight with Canadians. Many simply consider themselves liberal people so voting for whatever party has the word 'liberal' in it is good enough for many of them. They are the party of lipservicing to populist demands. King Donolo and the rest of the puppet masters scan the polls tirelessly then decide how they're going to convince us that they are doing what the majority of us say we want.

No doubt you don't believe that either. Okay, remember:

-"What? You don't like the GST? Why we'll scrap it then! No questions asked or thought to it."

-"Looks like Canadians want to join Kyoto. OKay we'll sign even though we admit ourselves we haven't the foggiest notion how to meet our commitments - we'll leave that to some other government for later -- and if that turns out to be us why we'll just make it look like we're scraping together some policies/programs towards that end even though those policies still have no hope of meeting our commitments, it'll look good."

-"Looks like (initially) Canadians want to join the mission in Afghanistan. Okay without really thinking about or planning it it we'll jump on board and see where it goes"

-"Looks like Canadians hate George Bush and the impending Iraq war. Okay I'll bad mouth him in Parliament, make a big stink about not sending troops to Iraq....but then secretly send troops and ships anyways to keep them happy."

Lip service. And it works too because most of us are too busy or lazy to follow up.

When it came to gay marriage the Liberals didn't know what to do, because the polls we extremely mixed across the land. Of course if you were a truly 'socially liberal' party there would be no question right? But hey, you gotta win the next election or else. They voted down Sven Robertsons (NDP) private member bill - because the polls weren't entirely in favour at the time - they certainly didn't vote it down because the LPC are truly "liberal" obviously. However in a very short time Canadians attitudes changes to the point that gay marriage received majority support instead of minority and in 2003(?)they drafted a bill for the supreme court to decide with. 3 Liberal MP's crossed the floor on that one.

These instances of shallow lip service to public desires finally over time became evident and imo this as well as the scandals made Canada hungry to vote for any remotely reasonable looking "anti-LPC" party. The conservatives were lucky enough to nail down some cohesion to their party (the reform party would turn on each other like Roman senators) and reaped the reward. The game the LPC were playing finally outlived itself and that's a major part of the reason they have 34 seats today.

In terms of toning down the more "extreme" members in their party as well as their more "socialist" rhetoric of previous decades we can expect the NDP to do exactly the same thing both during the election and if/when they win. We've already seen it. One can make any promises they like - they can promise sunshine and puppydogs and constant tailwinds for cyclists if they are perpetually in 3rd place, but once they have a legitimate chance at winning we see them immediately tone everything down and become more "realistic". They will conform to the status quo. What they have going for them is now they are in a position to reap the rewards of being neither Conservatives or Liberals. There's a very good chance people who are tired of the Conservatives and still distrustful of the LPC might very well flock to them. This is at least party the politics behind the current "Dutch Disease" drive. Anyone who thinks the NDP aren't trying their best to play for Ontario and Quebec votes doesn't understand the history of this country or maybe they can't count. Playing for Ontario and Quebec works: the two provinces combined have 174 seats, 70 more than the rest of the entire nation combined.

The parties talk and talk and talk. They promise and denounce and posture and insinuate even more promises. However at the end of the day if a party has a good chance of winning, or if they find themselves in government, they immediately conform to the status quo in Canada or they won't be re-elected. That status quo moves, but it moves very slowly and historically for Canada only in one direction.

My advice to Canadians is to not tie yourself to one party. That's a fools game. Vote strategically for every new election. I voted Tory when I was tired of the LPC. I voted LPC when I was tired of Mulroney. I voted CPC when I was tired of Chretien, (shame about Martin though, he was caught behind the 8-ball), and I voted NDP now and next election because it's their time, their chance. I just feel bad Broadbent isn't around to see it. If the NDP win and the LPC get their act together or the CPC has a complete MP upheaval I will probably change again. Never let them get too comfortable.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Claudius

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I hope that people are realizing that the Harper Government are really a corporatist government and not for the people.

Why would we elect a government that wants everyone except the 1% to be paid less?

Why would we elect a government that hates the right to bargain for a fair wage?

Why would we elect a government that only invests in corporations and not small business?

Why would we elect a government that hates the majority of voters and wants to destroy the historic economic hub of Canada?

[MiddleClassCentrist]

That's because Dim Whodat gave McSquinteye the win.

Anything is possible, but the NDP have been impeccably good at framing the discussion and even the dutch bomb isn't bringing them down.

The Dutch bomb is actually 30% of the reason that we've lost jobs. It's by no means a small contributor to job losses in Ontario.

[Claudius]

The Dutch bomb is actually 30% of the reason that we've lost jobs. It's by no means a small contributor to job losses in Ontario.

exactly: Ontario. That's why it plays well there. What was the other 70% of the reason?

One might consider that natural resources are still floating this county, even if they have contributed to bringing down the dollar.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Claudius

[Canuckistani]

exactly: Ontario. That's why it plays well there. What was the other 70% of the reason?

One might consider that natural resources are still floating this county, even if they have contributed to bringing down the dollar.

That's 30% of job losses across the country. The percentage is higher in Ontario.

Natural resources contribute to raising the dollar, not bringing it down.

[Claudius]

That's 30% of job losses across the country. The percentage is higher in Ontario.

Where does it say across the country? It certainly isn't contributing to job losses in BC, Sask, or Alberta where gas, coal and oil are king.

Natural resources contribute to raising the dollar, not bringing it down.

Pardon me, of course you're correct there, typing too fast. That's what I meant.

Edit:That it's a higher percentage in Ontario (and Quebec as well, non?) bolsters my belief that a lot of this is politics playing for votes in those two provinces. Naturally that doesn't mean something shouldnt be done to correct that pattern, but any party could promise that.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Claudius

[MiddleClassCentrist]

exactly: Ontario. That's why it plays well there. What was the other 70% of the reason?

One might consider that natural resources are still floating this county, even if they have contributed to bringing down the dollar.

Why are people so quick to minimize something because there are other reasons?

It is still a major factor, no matter how you try to minimize it.

[Claudius]

Why are people so quick to minimize something because there are other reasons?

Right back atchew: Why are people so willing to tunnel view on something when there are a host of other factors to consider?

:-)

[bleeding heart]

No doubt you don't believe that either. Okay, remember:

-"What? You don't like the GST? Why we'll scrap it then! No questions asked or thought to it."

-"Looks like Canadians want to join Kyoto. OKay we'll sign even though we admit ourselves we haven't the foggiest notion how to meet our commitments - we'll leave that to some other government for later -- and if that turns out to be us why we'll just make it look like we're scraping together some policies/programs towards that end even though those policies still have no hope of meeting our commitments, it'll look good."

-"Looks like (initially) Canadians want to join the mission in Afghanistan. Okay without really thinking about or planning it it we'll jump on board and see where it goes"

-"Looks like Canadians hate George Bush and the impending Iraq war. Okay I'll bad mouth him in Parliament, make a big stink about not sending troops to Iraq....but then secretly send troops and ships anyways to keep them happy."

Lip service. And it works too because most of us are too busy or lazy to follow up.

I picked a bit at random, only because quoting whole posts, especially long ones, is a no-no.

I agree completely. An excellent post.