Will Iran(again) interfere in the USA election?

[Guest Peeves]

Obama's move to remove all troops from Iraq may come back to haunt him.

Leaving Iraq was set by Bush, but Obama might well have considered leaving a support number.

Excerpts of a Daniel Pipes column.

On the other hand, bad as he might be in international politics & know how, Obama is heads above Carter in smarts sez I.

In 1980, the Iranians manipulated the American political process with hostages; in 2012, Iraq is their plaything. Should Iran's rulers decide to make trouble before Nov. 6, the Republican candidate will blame Obama for "losing Iraq." Given Obama's long opposition to the war, that will sting.

(Alternatively, the Iranians can shift gears and make good on their threat to close the Straits of Hormuz to imperil the 17 percent of world oil that goes through that waterway, thereby creating global economic instability.)

Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamene'i both have the opportunity to affect American presidential elections.

Mullahs chose to harm a weakened Democrat in 1980 and could do so again; or, they could decide that Obama is more to their liking and desist. The key point is, the troop withdrawal hands them extra options. Obama may well rue not having kept them there until after the elections, which would have allowed him plausibly to claim, "I did my best."

[GostHacked]

So the west does not interfere with other countries, but Iran is messing with the USA with the upcoming elections?? And the troops may be leaving but the contractors numbers remain and will increase over time. That is how that war was fought.

Going into Iraq is still haunting the USA to this day.

The USA used Iraq to fight Iran during the 80s'. All this is really blowback from way back.

[bud]

next, peeves will be blaming iran for his constipation.

[eyeball]

It's a premise only someone from Htrae could imagine, so true to that form; if Iran did interfere in the US election it would overthrow Barack Obama and re-install George W. Bush.

Like 1953 but in reverse.

[Topaz]

When it comes to interfering in an elections, no one does it better than the US, itself. By that I mean the voting machines and how a power can hack the software to elect whom ever they want.

[monty16]

Bet they won't but the US will try to claim they did to demonize Iran even more!

[Black Dog]

From the fevered brain of Pipes to Peeve's ear...

[jbg]

From the fevered brain of Pipes to Peeve's ear...

Fevered? What has Iran done that's constructive in a long time?

[monty16]

Fevered? What has Iran done that's constructive in a long time?

Brought the fear of nuclear retaliation to the US which has historically resulted in the biggest deterrent to war the world has ever seen. The number of lives this will save in the ME over the next 50 or more years is unimaginable. This very well could be the biggest determining factor for preventing wholesale slaughter at the hands of the US for the foreseeable future.

Easily 100 to 1 odds over Ron Paul ever accomplishing peace in the ME.

[dre]

You gotta wonder if the people that dreamed up the Iraqi war are just flat out stupid. This was so utterly predictable. Iraq is a Shia majority nation, and the Baathists were the only thing keeping Iran from ruling the place.

Is it so crazy to maybe think these things through a bit ahead of time?

[Wild Bill]

You gotta wonder if the people that dreamed up the Iraqi war are just flat out stupid. This was so utterly predictable. Iraq is a Shia majority nation, and the Baathists were the only thing keeping Iran from ruling the place.

Is it so crazy to maybe think these things through a bit ahead of time?

Ah,my good Dr. Dre! Remember we are dealing with Americans!

I have much respect for our American neighbours. They are in the main an honourable people with much to admire in their values. Even amongst their ordinary people we see more generosity than Canadians, as witnessed by their MUCH higher percentage of donations to charity than the average Canadian!

However, they an be an insular people, like Hobbits in the Shire. They know their own history back for generations but anything outside their own borders is "queer as news from Bree!"

This cosmopolitan ignorance cuts across the entire gamut of their society. Levels of education seem irrelevant. I still recall being in Dallas on business and having another salesman ask me "Oh, you're a Canadian? You're from Ontario? I have a cousin in Winnepeg. Perhaps you would know him?"

The salesman was a Texan. Perhaps Texans are worse than others about this, I don't know. However, I saw no reason to expect that either of the Bush presidents was well informed of the world outside his country's borders. Presidents rely on advisers, I'm sure. Still, they are the top man in charge and one would expect that they would make decisions first and foremost from their own gut, using their advisers to fill in the details.

These men obviously had no idea of the details of the socio-political-religious factors involved with Iraq and its neighbours. The invasion was accomplished swiftly and efficiently but that was because of the competency of the American military. The decision to occupy Iraq and how to do that was political. That was revealed to be boneheaded!

The one that made me question if the Bushes' heads "zipped up the back" was when they disbanded the Iraqi military, leaving hundreds of thousands of men with no jobs or source of income to feed themselves and their families! Men trained to kill expected to just sit home and die quietly in the dark!

This was far from the only such decision made!

So no, they're not stupid, Dre. They're just ignorant of pretty well anything besides themselves. Once in a while we can meet a pleasant exception but I truly think that in the main my generalization is accurate.

Yet despite all, I enjoy their company! It may take many more decades but if we keep working on them they will get better!

[Guest Peeves]

From the fevered brain of Pipes to Peeve's ear...

So you think denigrating the author, an opinion by a widely respected Middle East expert, and the one that posts a subject for discussion, somehow is of more interest and authoritative?

[Guest Peeves]

next, peeves will be blaming iran for his constipation.

Your post implies a position by me on the Iran reference. Please be specific as to my 'blaming' Iran anywhere in the o.p.

Otherwise you might be considered as just another ass hole whistling Dixie.

[DogOnPorch]

I doubt he's that talented.

[Guest Peeves]

You gotta wonder if the people that dreamed up the Iraqi war are just flat out stupid. This was so utterly predictable. Iraq is a Shia majority nation, and the Baathists were the only thing keeping Iran from ruling the place.

Is it so crazy to maybe think these things through a bit ahead of time?

Ah such simplification, In a nut shell! Ignoring of course the U.N. "the The Persian Gulf War (2 August 1990 – 28 February 1991), Liberation of Kuwait codenamed Operation Desert Storm (January 17, 1991– February 28, 1991) ..."

Hind sight being 20/20 one with such acerbic opinion might recall that the initial Iraq invasion was because of Saddam's lebensraum ambitions. The UN determined that Iraq should be stopped and WMD eliminated by Saddam. Saddam never confirmed that he had. Iraq was under sanctions when the second invasion took place.

One could argue the first invasion stopped too soon and the second was ill advised and went on far too long.

Still, many in the world-UN, thought Saddam had not complied with surrender terms. The Americans, both parties, supported Georgie's invasion along with several other countries of the 'willing.'

Now I suggest that had the UN really dealt with Saddam's resolve not to meet the imposed terms, and had Daddy Bush finished the job, Saddam would have been eliminated as a dictator, and some other countries..France- China- Russia would not have been making a mockery of the food for oil and sanctions.

Blaming the USA alone is very short sighted. USA has payed the price, but,the USA protected Europe from the Russians for generations.

I certainly think the US should be judged,but others took advantage and still others profited by the UN's handling of Iraq.

Iraq now has the opportunity to show the world what Iraqi's and their leaders and neighbors are made of and in so doing, be compared to the USA that bled for that opportunity.

[sharkman]

Don't look now, but Iran is doing some pretty serious sabre rattling for a non(as yet) nuclear power.

Tehran said it will test-fire missiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, a move likely to stoke tensions with Washington already running high over Iran's threats to close the strategic oil waterway if sanctions are enforced.

"Shorter- and longer-range, ground-to-sea, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles will be tested on Saturday," the ISNA news agency quoted Iran's navy spokesman, Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, as saying on Friday.

Iran, which has been carrying out war games in the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, has said that "not a drop of oil" would pass through the strait if Western governments follow through with planned additional sanctions over its nuclear programme.

This is not electioneering per se, but Iran is watching to see if Obama will blink. Do you think he will?

BTW, the above notion that Iran going nuclear has become some kind of deterent for war in the region is getting ahead of the ball. Iran does not as yet actually have any nuclear weapons. Also, Iran is more than likely to start a war or threaten wars to get it's way once it has any such weapons. It will heat up the region, not bring a peace in our time.

[punked]

Don't look now, but Iran is doing some pretty serious sabre rattling for a non(as yet) nuclear power.

This is not electioneering per se, but Iran is watching to see if Obama will blink. Do you think he will?

BTW, the above notion that Iran going nuclear has become some kind of deterent for war in the region is getting ahead of the ball. Iran does not as yet actually have any nuclear weapons. Also, Iran is more than likely to start a war or threaten wars to get it's way once it has any such weapons. It will heat up the region, not bring a peace in our time.

They are saber rattling not to interfere with the election but because Obama is trying to put new sanctions on them, particularly their oil which other oil pumping nations support this saying they will make for Iran's oil. This would cripple their country of course they are saber rattling and for good reason. It is like people around here don't follow the news at all.

[monty16]

You gotta wonder if the people that dreamed up the Iraqi war are just flat out stupid. This was so utterly predictable. Iraq is a Shia majority nation, and the Baathists were the only thing keeping Iran from ruling the place.

Is it so crazy to maybe think these things through a bit ahead of time?

Think a little deeper. The US doesn't regret either of it's wars against Iraq. If you're not understanding the strategic importance of the USpresense in the ME then you're missing the bigger picture. Did you think that Russia was in Afghanistan to harvest poppie seeds for bagels?

I know it's hard to accept the logic because if you do then it makes it quite undeniable that the US is the warmongering aggressor of the 21st. century so far.

Which all explains why as long as the US is killing them over there then they are going to be killing Americans over here. Probably Canadians too.

[monty16]

This has nothing to do with denigrating Obama or any US politician. Let's think this one through shall we kids?

If the US does Iran then Iran does Israel in a big way. But if Israel goes nuclear then Russia and/or China go nuclear too.

So Israel and the US know that and suppose it doesn't go nuclear. Israel loses bigtime as well as Iran losing bigtime but not so bad as Israel because Israel's assets and populations are more concentrated.

Which asks us to imagine an impossible situation because neither Iran or Israel want to suffer the huge losses of civilian population, even in a non-nuclear conflict.

So then we imagine the most likely outcome and that's that the US reign of terror in the ME is nearly over. And that means that Israel pulls in it's horns too.

Which doesn't mean that Iran then controls the ME but it does mean that Iran has the deterrent necessary to stop the US further momentum.

Then Russia and China establish their presense in the ME and develops Iran's oil resources. (cause that's what it's all about) And the US faces the possibility of losing out in Iran and Iraq too because both countries will favour the Russians and the Chinese.

Edited December 31, 2011 by monty1

[sharkman]

Wow monty. Try again.

[Guest American Woman]

So no, they're not stupid, Dre. They're just ignorant of pretty well anything besides themselves. Once in a while we can meet a pleasant exception but I truly think that in the main my generalization is accurate.

And I truly think that your generalization, far from being accurate, is, in fact, just ignorant.

[sharkman]

They are saber rattling not to interfere with the election but because Obama is trying to put new sanctions on them, particularly their oil which other oil pumping nations support this saying they will make for Iran's oil. This would cripple their country of course they are saber rattling and for good reason. It is like people around here don't follow the news at all.

And just why is Obama(and I presume the UN) wanting to put new sanctions on Iran? Any guesses?

Iran is developing nuclear energy. They made this claim for years, although growing evidence suggested they were actually after nuclear weapons. They insisted on their innocence, loudly decrying the detractors who wanted to keep Iran away from this wonderful technology. People who wondered why Iran needed such a controversial source of power when they are awash in Oil were excused as racists or Jew lovers or worse.

Now we see that Iran was lying the whole time. They want nuclear weapons, and the power they bring. They don't need to sabre rattle to remove the threat of sanctions, they need to stop building nuclear weapons. They don't need them or nuclear power. They could be a super rich nation if only they handled their resources properly. But no, they want nuclear weapons.

Both by developing the weapons, and threatening the waterway, they are making military action more likely. If they try it the US will sink their navy, and I think Israel should immediately pound their nuclear sites into powder.

[Guest American Woman]

And just why is Obama(and I presume the UN) wanting to put new sanctions on Iran?

....serious sanctions [were] imposed by the United Nations, the U.S. and the European Union.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/iran-initiates-nuclear-talks-world-powers-sanctions-squeeze-ahmadinejad-regime-article-1.999252#ixzz1i9LyXDbc

According to the article cited, "the invite for an international sitdown, issued Saturday by the country’s [iran's] top nuclear negotiator, seems a sign that widespread sanctions against Iran are working."

[monty16]

And just why is Obama(and I presume the UN) wanting to put new sanctions on Iran? Any guesses?

Iran is developing nuclear energy. They made this claim for years, although growing evidence suggested they were actually after nuclear weapons. They insisted on their innocence, loudly decrying the detractors who wanted to keep Iran away from this wonderful technology. People who wondered why Iran needed such a controversial source of power when they are awash in Oil were excused as racists or Jew lovers or worse.

Now we see that Iran was lying the whole time. They want nuclear weapons, and the power they bring. They don't need to sabre rattle to remove the threat of sanctions, they need to stop building nuclear weapons. They don't need them or nuclear power. They could be a super rich nation if only they handled their resources properly. But no, they want nuclear weapons.

Both by developing the weapons, and threatening the waterway, they are making military action more likely. If they try it the US will sink their navy, and I think Israel should immediately pound their nuclear sites into powder.

Well isn't that a lot of rightwing US bravado! You can't say for sure if Iran's seeking nuclear weapons or not but I sure hope they are! You're no ME expert for sure but you talk like you think you are. Juan Cole is and he tells it pretty much like it is because he doesn't need to pretend that the US can do what it pleases in the ME anymore. If the US bombs Iran it will be with the UN's blessing and that doesn't come without China and Russia's blessing. And if the US gets China's and Russia's blessing then the US will have no reason to bomb Iran. China and Russia have a stake in not seeing Iran get nukes too, to a lesser extent than the US and so those two will be asking for concessions from the US on the Israel/Palestine issue. The US will. Sorry but your wet dreams of war are not on the table. Isreal won't be starting one either and so that bluff has been called.

[monty16]

....serious sanctions [were] imposed by the United Nations, the U.S. and the European Union.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/iran-initiates-nuclear-talks-world-powers-sanctions-squeeze-ahmadinejad-regime-article-1.999252#ixzz1i9LyXDbc

According to the article cited, "the invite for an international sitdown, issued Saturday by the country’s [iran's] top nuclear negotiator, seems a sign that widespread sanctions against Iran are working."

"Talks"! More talks! And what do you think the talks will consist of? Have you thought it through that far yet? Do you think there's any possibility at all that Iran would want concessions on the Israel question? Hmmmm?

Iran can live with the sanctions because Russia and China will surreptitiously make it look like they're cooperating. But we should all know that China and Russia are the US's competitiors for oil in the ME so they're certainly not going to play their hand and make it easy for the US, hence hard on Iran to the point where Iran needs to cave. It's the perfect storm woman. The perfect storm for you too because everybody wins and everybody loses at the same time. Right?