The Defacto Official NFL Thead (was 'Tim Tebow WTH?')

msj · December 19, 2011

He still managed to run for almost 100 yards.

Tom Brady > Tim Tebow

Who knew?

Well, as of last week Brady had 40 DYAR rushing vs. Tebow's 22 according to Footballoutsiders.com.

In fact, Cam Newton is #1 in rushing DYAR for QB's and is #14 for passing (vs Tebow's #29 rank) so I really don't know why anyone is talking about Tebow when Newton is clearly the better rookie QB (with a weaker defence).

msj · December 19, 2011

It's going back a few years but he did admit he's a virgin.

Which does not mean that he is still one....

Boges · December 19, 2011

Which does not mean that he is still one....

The fact that the question was even asked in the first place is pretty offensive. :rolleyes:

Hey Tim yeah it's Jay Glazier from ProFootballTalk.com Have you had sex yet? <_<

As for DYAR or whatever the fuck that is the QB rating thinks that's confusing.

msj · December 19, 2011

As for DYAR or whatever the fuck that is the QB rating thinks that's confusing.

Yeah, I'm not surprised that that would be over your head.

sharkman · December 19, 2011

So Tebow chalks up a loss,eh? It seems like the D couldn't shut down Brady and the O coughed up a few turnovers. Not a perfect effort from either group, but I had a hard time believing they would knock off the Patriots.

Boges · December 19, 2011

Yeah, I'm not surprised that that would be over your head.

Well the link you provided didn't really explain how you come to a 20 or a 40.

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.
The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

Effective Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

Does that measure the defense's rankings at the time they played or overall? A win over the Dolphins in Week one might have looked a lot less impressive in Week 3 than it does now.

msj · December 19, 2011

Well the link you provided didn't really explain how you come to a 20 or a 40.

Does that measure the defense's rankings at the time they played or overall? A win over the Dolphins in Week one might have looked a lot less impressive in Week 3 than it does now.

If you care about football and measuring the game then poke around the website for answers.

Boges · December 19, 2011

If you care about football and measuring the game then poke around the website for answers.

I have to care about obscure statistical measures that I had never heard about before you pointed it out in this thread to care about football?

I think that site being called footballoutsiders.com is an apt name. Not once have I ever heard Mort, Jaws, Jay Glazier, Mel Kiper or any prominent football pundit use DYAR as an important football statistic.

The fact that the Chiefs beat the Packers yesterday proved that peering into arbitrary statistics to determine how a team will perform is a largely useless endeavor.

msj · December 19, 2011

I have to care about obscure statistical measures that I had never heard about before you pointed it out in this thread to care about football?

I think that site being called footballoutsiders.com is an apt name. Not once have I ever heard Mort, Jaws, Jay Glazier, Mel Kiper or any prominent football pundit use DYAR as an important football statistic.

The fact that the Chiefs beat the Packers yesterday proved that peering into arbitrary statistics to determine how a team will perform is a largely useless endeavor.

Footballoutsiders has had a good relationship with Jaws (one would have to look in their achives for that).

I know from other threads that your one of those "ad populum" type of guys.

I'm one of those "if it is interesting and measurable and I can learn from it then I like it" kind of guys. I don't care if it's "mainstream" or if it's liked by 1 person or 1 billion people.

We ain't compatible so <shrug> .

Boges · December 19, 2011

Footballoutsiders has had a good relationship with Jaws (one would have to look in their achives for that).

I know from other threads that your one of those "ad populum" type of guys.

I'm one of those "if it is interesting and measurable and I can learn from it then I like it" kind of guys. I don't care if it's "mainstream" or if it's liked by 1 person or 1 billion people.

We ain't compatible so <shrug> .

You must be a baseball fan then. That's a sport that's all about obscure statistics. If that's your thing great.

I'm more interested in the strategic elements of football, when to run, when to pass, what types of defenses to use etc.

Boges · December 19, 2011

Back to the Thread's topic.

Tebow has never been a statistically amazing QB.

The stats from the season where he won his second National Title are good but not great.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2008/player/235/1001120/index.html

He averaged less than 300 yards a game.

But anyone who watched the Gators that season would know that his performances in key games were the key to the Gators success.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Boges

msj · December 19, 2011

You must be a baseball fan then. That's a sport that's all about obscure statistics. If that's your thing great.

No, hate baseball. Too boring.

I'm more interested in the strategic elements of football, when to run, when to pass, what types of defenses to use etc.

If you really are then you should pay attention to footballoutsiders.

Probability has a big influence on strategy but perhaps you need some more education (or experience) to appreciate that.

sharkman · December 19, 2011

Back to the Thread's topic.

Tebow has never been a statistically amazing QB.

The stats from the season where he won his second National Title are good but not great.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2008/player/235/1001120/index.html

He averaged less than 300 yards a game.

But anyone who watched the Gators that season would know that his performances in key games were the key to the Gators success.

Yeah, he's not a quarterback that lights it up in any stretch of the imagination. He just somehow keeps ending up winning most of the games he's in.

Boges · December 19, 2011

If you really are then you should pay attention to footballoutsiders.

Probability has a big influence on strategy but perhaps you need some more education (or experience) to appreciate that.

Or time throughout the week to care enough about each potential statistical category :rolleyes:

I know you think it's Ad Populum but if these stats were really critical to the outcomes of the game then why aren't they mainstream? A QB rating is complex as Hell but it's widely used in ratins systems.

For example in Baseball the nerds that invented Fantasy Sports invented WHIP (Walks/Hits Per Inning)

Boges · December 19, 2011

If you really are then you should pay attention to footballoutsiders.

Probability has a big influence on strategy but perhaps you need some more education (or experience) to appreciate that.

Or time throughout the week to care enough about each potential statistical category :rolleyes:

I know you think it's Ad Populum but if these stats were really critical to the outcomes of the game then why aren't they mainstream? A QB rating is complex as Hell but it's widely used when rating a player.

For example in Baseball the nerds that invented Fantasy Sports invented WHIP (Walks/Hits Per Inning)

msj · December 19, 2011

Back to the Thread's topic.

Tebow has never been a statistically amazing QB.

The stats from the season where he won his second National Title are good but not great.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2008/player/235/1001120/index.html

He averaged less than 300 yards a game.

But anyone who watched the Gators that season would know that his performances in key games were the key to the Gators success.

Now that Tebow has graduated to the big game we don't really care how he did using conventional stats from College.

Either he will improve and become a good/great QB or he will not.

Denver may have the second coming of a Super Bowl QB or they may be shooting themselves in the foot for another 3 to 5 years.

Time will tell.

None of us can know if/when Tebow will begin to read coverages, for example. None of us will know when he will be able to understand coverages.

I do note that footballoutsiders had this to say about Tebow back in September of 2009.

Cliff notes version - the LCF model came up as being very positive for Tebow.

msj · December 19, 2011

Or time throughout the week to care enough about each potential statistical category

I know you think it's Ad Populum but if these stats were really critical to the outcomes of the game then why aren't they mainstream? A QB rating is complex as Hell but it's widely used when rating a player.

The QB rating (rather, a passer rating) has many fundamental flaws.

FO looks at things in context.

For example, a QB kneeling down 3 times is not counted in FO's stats since it is meaningless to his stats (but not meaningless to the game - the QB is kneeling to run out the clock and win the game).

Yet it does impact the passer rating since those are counted as "attempts."

A sack of minus 28 yards has more meaning in FO's stats since it was on fourth down (i.e. a fail) and automatically put NE into field goal range upon taking over (so an epic fail).

Under the passer rating that play would only count as an incomplete pass.

IOW, FO stats take a lot of information into context to give us a more complete picture.

The passer rating is essentially useless and gives us nothing more than shadows from the fire onto the cave wall (to borrow from Plato/Socrates).

Edited December 19, 2011 by msj

olp1fan · December 19, 2011

Getting to feel up tits and getting your crank handled

SYHTFOTW

not sure what that feels like so i couldnt compare

cant miss what you never had

Edited December 19, 2011 by olp1fan

Jack Weber · December 20, 2011

not sure what that feels like so i couldnt compare

cant miss what you never had

Thank you,Mr.Celebacy!!!

kimmy · December 20, 2011

Under the stats heading, Drew Brees' day (32 of 40, 412 yards, 5 td, 0 int, no sacks, QB rating: 149.2) has to be one of the most obscene lines of all time.

-k

Jack Weber · December 20, 2011

Under the stats heading, Drew Brees' day (32 of 40, 412 yards, 5 td, 0 int, no sacks, QB rating: 149.2) has to be one of the most obscene lines of all time.

-k

It is,and he's about 300 yards away from Dan Marino's NFL single season passing yard total.

All thanks to Viking secondary...

kimmy · December 20, 2011

It's going back a few years but he did admit he's a virgin.

Which does not mean that he is still one....

No reason to doubt it, either.

There are athletes who aren't the people they appear to be, but I don't see any reason to doubt Tebow. We've become so jaded from hearing about athletes who are all about money and drugs and adultery that we forget that there are still a lot of good people in pro sports too.

Personally, I don't doubt that Tebow is saving himself for marriage.

Thank you,Mr.Celebacy!!!

Well, there's one thing he has in common with Tim Tebow.

-k

Shady · December 20, 2011

All thanks to Viking secondary...

Definitely. That, and the NFL's continued changing of rules to promote offense, and crackdown on defense. I'm thinking if Marino played during the current rules, he'd probably have thrown for another 500 - 1000 yards.

Boges · December 20, 2011

I'm pretty surprised more hasn't been made in this thread about Tebow's religious views.

It's all the MSM is talking about, his performance is seen as an afterthought.

I've never heard him say that God was punishing him for his L's. As for thanking him for the W's that's customary to give God credit for any good fortune you receive. It's not all that crazy, see any award show.

I read a column on on www.grantland.com that implies his missionary work in the Philippines sole goal was to supplant Catholicism as the nation's #1 religion.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7369021/fair-game

It so happens that 95 percent of the population of the Philippines is Roman Catholic. Catholic doctrine just happens to be in conflict with what Bob Tebow and his son preach in regard to personal salvation. (To devout Catholics, for example, sins are not forgiven "by faith alone," but through the sacrament of reconciliation as administered by a priest.) Bob Tebow's goal is not to convert unbelievers. It is to supplant an existing form of Christianity. So who's the actual Christian here? This is not an idle point to be made. Down through history, millions of people have died in conflicts over what a "Christian" really is, which is what so exercised Madison, and also what brought down a lot of Hitchens' wrath upon religion in general. History says that as soon as you start talking about "the only true message" in this regard, you guarantee that, eventually, people will get slaughtered in the town square.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Boges