Federal Election Polls

[On Guard for Thee]

I just wish we actually had the latter last election. Harper would be there but with a minority.

Edited November 24, 2014 by On Guard for Thee

[jbg]

I just wish we actually had the latter last election. Harper would be there but with a minority.

In rep-by-prop almost every government is a minority or more likely coalition.

[On Guard for Thee]

In rep-by-prop almost every government is a minority or more likely coalition.

Which would me preferable to what we have now. In any case what it clearly shows is some electoral bounaries need to be redrawn.

[jbg]

Which would me preferable to what we have now. In any case what it clearly shows is some electoral bounaries need to be redrawn.

In rep-by-prop there literally are no boundaries. There are nationwide or province=wide party slates. How far down the list gets to go to Parliament depends on the percentage of votes received. No one has their own MP> It's a mess.

[Boges]

Which would me preferable to what we have now. In any case what it clearly shows is some electoral bounaries need to be redrawn.

People always talk about the gridlock in the US government. They largely only have a 2 party system but because any one of the President, Senate or House can kill a bill (and often to pass these bills you need more than a simple majority) so much compromise is needed for anything to be passed.

Minority governments can often create these types of gridlock. Especially when the 3rd party holds the balance of power where they can drive the agenda. We saw this in the most recent minority government in Ontario where the NDP was largely driving the agenda even though they were a distant 3rd in seats.

Edited November 24, 2014 by Boges

[ProudCanadianConservative]

I once was in favor of rep by prop but then I realized there's no way that would work, mainly due to riding's themselves. You'd either have to abolish riding's, which would beg the question who are the politicians accountable to? They'd be more accountable to their party than their constituents. Or they'd have to appoint a person who didn't win the riding as MP because they need to meet the quota based on the vote percentage, how is that democracy?

[Boges]

I once was in favor of rep by prop but then I realized there's no way that would work, mainly due to riding's themselves. You'd either have to abolish riding's, which would beg the question who are the politicians accountable to? They'd be more accountable to their party than their constituents. Or they'd have to appoint a person who didn't win the riding as MP because they need to meet the quota based on the vote percentage, how is that democracy?

There's a model called Mixed Proportional. It went up for a Referendum in 2007 in Ontario and was defeated comfortably.

You would have a class of MPs that are elected by constituents but to reflect the popular vote you'd ad additional MPs from parties that aren't reflected by the composition of the house. Of course those MPs wouldn't have a constituency, they'd just be party flacks.

I think the model that is most popular amongst reformers is a ranked voting model where if a majority isn't reached, the voter's second or third choices are considered.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Boges

[Boges]

BTW 308 only has the Liberals up 4 points now.

Clearly the JT effect has largely worn off. He's going to have to provide something to Canadians that'll make them want to vote for the Liberals over the coming Tax Cuts and Balanced Budgets this Spring from the CPC.

[Michael Hardner]

I think the model that is most popular amongst reformers is a ranked voting model where if a majority isn't reached, the voter's second or third choices are considered.

I'd prefer to have the system change such that citizens with no interest in policies stop voting, and interested/informed voters use forums and discussion to elevate the debate on important issues. Better voters would make for better politics, and the death of political television will be a great step towards this goal.

[Spiderfish]

I'd prefer to have the system change such that citizens with no interest in policies stop voting, and interested/informed voters use forums and discussion to elevate the debate on important issues. Better voters would make for better politics, and the death of political television will be a great step towards this goal.

I'm not sure how you could get people with no interest in politics to stop voting. There will always be protest votes, etc. I'm all in favour, however of putting more resources into ensuring votes aren't influenced through pressure by special interest groups and unions.

[Keepitsimple]

October 308 Aggregate Polling Numbers:

Liberals 38%

Conservatives 29%

NDP 23%

November 308 Numbers:

Liberals 35%

Conservatives 31%

NDP 21%

[Smallc]

But I've been told on here that the numbers haven't changed at all, so it can't be true.

[cybercoma]

That's not what you've been told.

[overthere]

Perhaps its backlash from the recent 'Liberals are rapists' meme?

[cybercoma]

Too recent. It's more likely backlash from the war against ISIS. Trudeau was utterly non-commital to any side there.

Edited November 26, 2014 by cybercoma

[Boges]

Too recent. It's more likely backlash from the war against ISIS. Trudeau was utterly non-commital to any side there.

And he compared a Fighter Jet to a Penis.

[cybercoma]

Hah! I didn't hear that one. That's hilarious.

[WLDB]

Interesting watching the numbers but they can change a lot with little or no warning then change back again. Next year will be when the numbers start to matter. Being ahead today means little to nothing.

[Topaz]

IF more young people get and vote this time around then the Tories could be in trouble. The Unemployment is high for that group and anyone born 1958+ will have see changes to CPP and OAS, in EI benefits. Then there the Vets and the wrong guy as minister, Harper having us in another war which will cost millions , if not billions by the time it ends. Then there's all the big and little scams and schemes we've seen this party pull off and they aren't transparent or accountable. It's more then time for them to go.

[Keepitsimple]

Its getting closer....Trudeau down 4 points since September

LIberals - 34%

Conservatives - 33%

NDP - 24%

Harper’s Tories and Trudeau’s Liberals in dead heat: poll

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have pulled into a neck-and-neck race with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, both nationally and in vote-rich Ontario, according to a newly released poll. The poll, conducted for Global News by Ipsos Reid with a large sample size, comes 10 months before the next scheduled federal election

The Conservatives had a one-point edge over the Liberals among male voters – within the margin of error – while the Liberals had a four-point lead among women over the Conservatives. The Conservatives lead among voters over 55 years old, while the Liberals and NDP lead Mr. Harper’s party among voters aged 18 to 34. The Liberals hold a narrow lead over the 35 to 54 age group, with 35 per cent to the Conservatives’ 33 per cent.

The poll surveyed 8,268 Canadians over the past three weeks. It is considered accurate within 1.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The next federal election is scheduled for October of 2015.

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harpers-tories-and-trudeaus-liberals-in-dead-heat-poll/article21943118/

Edited December 4, 2014 by Keepitsimple

[Boges]

It's Ipsos-Reid. People can't say It's Forum or Nanos so it means NOTHING!!!

To unseat an incumbent, JT would need a healthy lead going into the campaign. Something it doesn't appear he'll have anymore.

[Keepitsimple]

Amusing how quiet this thread is now that the Liberals are falling in the polls........crickets.

[ProudCanadianConservative]

Yeah I think Justin Trudeau's lack of leadership is finally catching up to him, even those on his side want him to take a position.

I'm just waiting for the Liberal Party to release their election platform, because I don't even know what it will look like.

I think if things like carbon taxes, higher corporate tax rates, and gas taxes are on there, but keeping the budget balanced, and tax cuts are not, they will lose most of the support they have taken from the Conservatives.

[overthere]

Yeah I think Justin Trudeau's lack of leadership is finally catching up to him, even those on his side want him to take a position.

I'm just waiting for the Liberal Party to release their election platform, because I don't even know what it will look like.

I think if things like carbon taxes, higher corporate tax rates, and gas taxes are on there, but keeping the budget balanced, and tax cuts are not, they will lose most of the support they have taken from the Conservatives.

The most important thing will be the quality of the photos taken of Trudeau for ad campaigns, posters and press releases.

[ProudCanadianConservative]

The most important thing will be the quality of the photos taken of Trudeau for ad campaigns, posters and press releases.

lol I'm sure that's what Trudeau might be thinking.