Federal Election Polls

[Scotty]

I wonder how or if the Sturgeon revalation will affect things. Again, the optics are horrible on this one.

Tory candidate lobbied for firm selling F-35 jets

What exactly does this say to the average voter?

That Conservative candidates are gainfully employed? I'm not sure what you or the Star are trying to get at here. This candidate, as a private citizen, worked for a firm which (gasp) did business with the federal government!

So?

I've seen desperate efforts at creating a scandal before, but this has got to be a new low.

[Scotty]

That would'nt have anything to do with the general regionalism,as it relates to who gets what votes where,in the country???

Or is it the "coalition conspiracy" that you believe in???

Look, does anyone know of a time in history, going through all of British Parliamentary history, when the leader of the opposition party in a minority parliament brought down the government when he was 19 points down in the polls? I mean, huh!? So either Ignatieff is a blithering imbecile, or he figured that an election would just bring in another Tory minority, which would then give him an excuse, at that point, to say "Look, the Tories are just as arrogant as last time, and we're not having it, so we either have another election right now, or me and Jack and Jacques here see how things go for us."

[Shakeyhands]

That Conservative candidates are gainfully employed? I'm not sure what you or the Star are trying to get at here. This candidate, as a private citizen, worked for a firm which (gasp) did business with the federal government!

So?

I've seen desperate efforts at creating a scandal before, but this has got to be a new low.

I recognize that, my point is the optics on it are horrible. I merely wondered how it would play. Relax a little huh.

btw... the CPC is involved in enough shenanigans, scandals and schemes that one more wouldn't hurt anyway.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Shakeyhands

[Scotty]

I recognize that, my point is the optics on it are horrible. I merely wondered how it would play. Relax a little huh.

I'm not particularly excited. I just find this desperate and continuing effort to find piddling little things which can be blown up into a scandal tiresome. The optics of this are fine unless you're an idiot who doesn't put any though to it. What, because one guy is alleged to have lobbied (and will probably, after investigation, turn out to not have broken the law) the government, no one else is allowed to have ever had any dealings with lobby firms or the government?

btw... the CPC is involved in enough shenanigans, scandals and schemes that one more wouldn't hurt anyway.

All I can think of is piddling stuff and silly allegations like this. Nothing that compares to the last three governments.

[Harry]

Interesting. That makes Abacus as the only polling firm not showing CPC moving up. Their M/E is 3.3% though...

What do you think about the comments by David Coletto of Abacus who said that the chances to grow are quite limited for Harper because very few Canadians have the Conservatives as their 2nd choice?

Edited March 28, 2011 by Harry

[capricorn]

I recognize that, my point is the optics on it are horrible.

I suppose for some people it's just another example of Harper's corrupt government. "I see Harper is parachuting in one of his cronies again"

My question is why in the world would Raymond Sturgeon, senior partner at CFN Consultants, want to leave his seemingly cushy job to run in a riding the Conservatives haven't won since 1930? In 2008 the Conservatives lost by 10,000 votes to the NDP.

The riding where Mr. Sturgeon is running, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, is a vast Northern Ontario district that the Conservatives last captured in 1930.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-candidate-lobbied-ottawa-for-us-fighter-jet-manufacturer/article1959650/

[Bryan]

What do you think about the comments by David Coletto of Abacus who said that the chances to grow are quite limited for Harper because very few Canadians have the Conservatives as their 2nd choice?

I think it's one guy's opinion.

Nanos, Angus-Reid, and Ipsos have the best rack record in the past few years as far as their polls actually reflecting the real vote, so I put more weight behind them than I do the other guys. Nanos especially so. New Nanos comes out on wednesday.

[ToadBrother]

I think it's one guy's opinion.

Nanos, Angus-Reid, and Ipsos have the best rack record in the past few years as far as their polls actually reflecting the real vote, so I put more weight behind them than I do the other guys. Nanos especially so. New Nanos comes out on wednesday.

The Tories skirted close to the 40s in 2008 and it backed down a bit. There seems to be similar volatility this time around, but while I wouldn't bet any real money on a Tory majority, I wouldn't discount it entirely either.

[capricorn]

There seems to be similar volatility this time around, but while I wouldn't bet any real money on a Tory majority, I wouldn't discount it entirely either.

One pollster said he's seeing a lot of volatility in the Conservative numbers. I could see the Conservative numbers going up and down like a yoyo until election day. So I think the results of the election will be a surprise to a great many people. I wouldn't want to make a prediction on the election's outcome specifically because of that volatility.

[ToadBrother]

One pollster said he's seeing a lot of volatility in the Conservative numbers. I could see the Conservative numbers going up and down like a yoyo until election day. So I think the results of the election will be a surprise to a great many people. I wouldn't want to make a prediction on the election's outcome specifically because of that volatility.

Yup, my read exactly. I think staring at the polling numbers won't do much but give you a headache. If this is coupled with low voter turnout, which seems distinctly possible, I think it's probably all but impossible to predict, other than the fact that I think it's pretty much impossible for the Liberals to punch past the Conservatives. I can't see that happening.

I don't think we're going to be able to call this thing done until after the polls close in BC.

[Scotty]

I suppose for some people it's just another example of Harper's corrupt government. "I see Harper is parachuting in one of his cronies again"

My question is why in the world would Raymond Sturgeon, senior partner at CFN Consultants, want to leave his seemingly cushy job to run in a riding the Conservatives haven't won since 1930? In 2008 the Conservatives lost by 10,000 votes to the NDP.

Guess? He's paying his dues. I doubt he's left his job. He'll return to it after this brief interlude, having gotten some experience in campaigning and let the Tories run a quality candidate in a hopeless riding. Maybe next time around, if he shows he can actually handle debates and campaigning, they'll have him running in a better seat.

[Harry]

I think it's one guy's opinion.

Nanos, Angus-Reid, and Ipsos have the best rack record in the past few years as far as their polls actually reflecting the real vote, so I put more weight behind them than I do the other guys. Nanos especially so. New Nanos comes out on wednesday.

Actually Nanos in 2004 and 2006, and Harris Decima in 2008, were the most accurate pollsters, and CROP and Leger Marketing are quite accurate for Quebec. Ipsos appears to shill for the Conservatives and EKOS appears to shill for the Liberals so I would not bet my weeek's wages on either of their forecasts.

[punked]

Actually Nanos in 2004 and 2006, and Harris Decima in 2008, were the most accurate pollsters, and CROP and Leger Marketing are quite accurate for Quebec. Ipsos appears to shill for the Conservatives and EKOS appears to shill for the Liberals so I would not bet my weeek's wages on either of their forecasts.

Well said my friend someone has done their homework on polls. To be fair to figure out if you trust a poll all you have to do is open it up and see where the numbers are coming from.

[punked]

Harper is talking about this silly coalition stuff maybe because he don't want to talk about what Canadians are concerned about which is reflected in the polls

C - 36% (2% less that 2008 GE - what's going on!)

L - 27%

N - 20%

I think the Conservatives have room to grow and here is why. It is not about how people will vote for the Conservatives they know they have limited growth it is about who goes to vote. The Liberals can have a poll thats says 50% of people will vote for them however if only half of those people vote they would end up much lower on election day. Harper is very good at voter suppression and the Liberals are running an election against the NDP right now. So Harper is going to get those soft Liberals who support coalition to stay home by making Iggy talk about how much of a stupid idea it is. Those Liberals might be as high as 30-50% of Liberal support.

I think the Liberals are running doing a great job of running the campaign they are running right now but it is the wrong campaign to be run. They can win every NDP seat in the country Harper is still going to be PM. Maybe Iggy knows the only way he stays is to win some seats and he doesn't care if Harper beats him or not, maybe they are running the long game but it seems like a big gamble to me.

[Bryan]

Actually Nanos in 2004 and 2006, and Harris Decima in 2008, were the most accurate pollsters, and CROP and Leger Marketing are quite accurate for Quebec. Ipsos appears to shill for the Conservatives and EKOS appears to shill for the Liberals so I would not bet my weeek's wages on either of their forecasts.

Angus Reid was the most accurate in 2008.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2008.10.15_Election.pdf

[Harry]

Angus Reid was the most accurate in 2008.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2008.10.15_Election.pdf

Yes Bryan, Angus Reid (Vision Critical now) are quite good as well.

[punked]

Angus Reid was the most accurate in 2008.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2008.10.15_Election.pdf

SO you are right.

[Bryan]

SO you are right.

Can you tell my wife that?

[punked]

HD has a new poll out today. Liberals to announce "tuition" help tomorrow for lower income students. Don't see how it works I agree tuition needs fixing but the problem mostly lies in how Universities are funded I think. No matter how much Provincial and Federal governments help with tuition it seems we are in the same place 2-5 years later. My two cents, don't think the Liberal plan is the right one for the problem at hand.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll suggests the Conservatives opened up a 38-24 lead over the opposition Liberals in the dying days of the minority government and the first weekend of electioneering.

The NDP was at 19 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 10 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent.

Recap:

Con:38

Lib:24

NDP:19

Bloc:10

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/conservatives-lead-liberals-38-24-in-latest-canadian-press-harris-decima-poll-118799299.html

Edited March 29, 2011 by punked

[Bryan]

Liberals to announce "tuition" help tomorrow for lower income students. Don't see how it works I agree tuition needs fixing but the problem mostly lies in how Universities are funded I think. No matter how much Provincial and Federal governments help with tuition it seems we are in the same place 2-5 years later. My two cents, don't think the Liberal plan is the right one for the problem at hand.

That's a +1 campaign promise, the kind of thing the Liberals need to avoid a complete collapse.. It probably won't work at all if it's like other Liberal spending promises, but it doesn't have to. It would still sound like enough of a good thing to be able to just announce it and not be scrutinized by the MSM.

[WWWTT]

Wow alot of disecting of wich poll means what and wich poll is more accurate,etc,etc.

There almost seems to be a poll that each camp wants to adopt and point to as their favorite.

Just a reminder that spring elections are the most avoided by the incumbent party.

And for good reason,its tax season!

Just ask Kim Campbell how her spring campaign went.

This is an election that Harper does not want and neither do the conservatives

Let me ask this-anything in those polls about how someone will vote depending on their tax return or lack of!

WWWTT

[Bryan]

Wow alot of disecting of wich poll means what and wich poll is more accurate,etc,etc.

There almost seems to be a poll that each camp wants to adopt and point to as their favorite.

Just a reminder that spring elections are the most avoided by the incumbent party.

And for good reason,its tax season!

Just ask Kim Campbell how her spring campaign went.

This is an election that Harper does not want and neither do the conservatives

Let me ask this-anything in those polls about how someone will vote depending on their tax return or lack of!

WWWTT

Considering that the Conservatives have lowered people's taxes considerably, tax time is the best time for the CPC to have an election. It reminds people how much better off they are now than they were under the Liberals.

What makes it a bad time (for Manitobans at least) is it's flood fighting time. People are not happy the Liberals around here for causing an election now.

[punked]

Considering that the Conservatives have lowered people's taxes considerably, tax time is the best time for the CPC to have an election. It reminds people how much better off they are now than they were under the Liberals.

What makes it a bad time (for Manitobans at least) is it's flood fighting time. People are not happy the Liberals around here for causing an election now.

Jack was delivering that message earlier today in Sask.

[bush_cheney2004]

...BC, that was my point. In January 2008, her poll results reflected the higher profile/recognition of her name. One reason that Ignatieff is low now is because this is his first campaign. Unless you're in the biz, it's hard to understand how difficult it is to get name recognition.

No again, as you specifically attributed her success to her "husband's name" recognition. By 2008, Hillary Clinton had her own national name recognition, regardless of husband Bill Clinton. If you understand the biz, Bill Clinton's name actually became a liability, at first for Al Gore, then Hillary Clinton.

[ToadBrother]

No again, as you specifically attributed her success to her "husband's name" recognition. By 2008, Hillary Clinton had her own national name recognition, regardless of husband Bill Clinton. If you understand the biz, Bill Clinton's name actually became a liability, at first for Al Gore, then Hillary Clinton.

Besides, Hillary has more than acquitted herself. Obama may be a rather weak-kneed president, but Clinton is a pretty good Secretary of State. If I were an American, I'd be wondering right now if the wrong Democrat got into the Oval Office.