Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

The Quebec poll to watch is this one:Le Soleil

With numbers like this, Harper will not keep his 10 Quebec seats. OTOH, Quebec media has started to talk about a Conservative majority across Canada. If this becomes the norm, then some Quebecer voters will switch from the Bloc to the Conservatives to ensure that they have representation inside government.

I'm feeling, at least at this stage, that there are probably even odds of a Tory majority. It's early days, of course, but Iggy has started out pretty lacklustre. Layton and Duceppe have both launched from the starting gate in a full run, and Harper has managed to put Iggy on the defensive right out of the gate, so at this point it doesn't exactly look good for the Liberals. While Layton's talking coalitions, I'm wondering if in a couple of weeks and the Liberals are still unable to get things in the air he might just switch to nailing the Liberals to try to convince disaffected Liberal voters to turn NDP.

[punked]

OK, check this one out.

CROP

For Quebec

B - 38%

C - 23%

N - 20%

L - 11%

G - 8%

Among Francophones

B - 44%

N - 21%

C - 21%

L - 7%

Le PLC à son plus bas au Québec

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201103/26/01-4383408-le-plc-a-son-plus-bas-au-quebec.php

With those numbers the Liberals lose every seat they have in Quebec maybe eek out a few close ones in Montreal.

[Harry]

Not good news for Harper in Quebec City area.

B - 37%

C - 30%

L - 14%

N - 9%

G - 8%

Sondage Segma-Le Soleil: les conservateurs dans l'embarras(Québec) Le chef conservateur Stephen Harper lancera sa campagne à Québec samedi, alors qu'un nouveau sondage montre que ses députés y sont en difficulté.http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-federales/201103/25/01-4383367-sondage-segma-le-soleil-les-conservateurs-dans-lembarras.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_vous_suggere_4383372_article_POS2

Edited March 26, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

Not good news for the Liberals period.

The survey of 2,365 Canadians reveals the Conservatives are in the lead nationally with 39 per cent support, the Liberals at 25 per cent, and the New Democrats at 19 per cent. The Bloc Québécois has 10 per cent support and the Green Party 7 per cent.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/962129--tories-on-brink-of-majority-as-election-called?bn=1

[Harry]

CONSERVATIVES ENTER CAMPAIGN WITH BIG LEAD

http://probe-research.com/documents/110324A%20Federal%20Party%20Standings%20%28FINAL%29.pdf

[Wild Bill]

Not good news for Harper in Quebec City area.

B - 37%

C - 30%

L - 14%

N - 9%

G - 8%

How can you tell? How many seats are involved? There are always areas in any metro city where people are more business class, union factory workers, rich folks or whatever. So some ridings might hog certain types of voters over the other ones.

You realize that your poll shows only a 7 point difference between the Bloc and the Tories? That's more than small enough to make WHERE the inevitable pockets of support occur important!

Few cities vote solidly for just one party! There is always a bit of a mix. Harper could take a few seats around Quebec City and some from some other areas and keep his 10 seats.

If August is right and Quebecers start to sense a Harper majority, they have proven a number of times before that they will get behind the parade! Quebec likes those who can do something for them! That is always the BQ and used to be the Liberals. The NDP, being perpetually in opposition, was largely ignored. Now the Conservatives occupy the position formerly held by the Liberals. It's quite possible they may take as many seats as formerly done by the Liberals. The NDP will likely be lucky to retain their one seat.

Unless something changes during the campaign, it is the LIBERALS who are doomed in Quebec!

Edited March 26, 2011 by Wild Bill

[punked]

CONSERVATIVES ENTER CAMPAIGN WITH BIG LEAD

http://probe-research.com/documents/110324A%20Federal%20Party%20Standings%20%28FINAL%29.pdf

The good news for the Liberals here is they might with these numbers keep their seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

The good news for the Liberals here is they might with these numbers keep their seats.

Coould I ask which polls have the greatest historical accuracy? National polls (conducted across the whole country) or provincal polls asking federal voting intention (done in each province)?

[Harry]

How can you tell? How many seats are involved? There are always areas in any metro city where people are more business class, union factory workers, rich folks or whatever. So some ridings might hog certain types of voters over the other ones.

You realize that your poll shows only a 7 point difference between the Bloc and the Tories? That's more than small enough to make WHERE the inevitable pockets of support occur important!

Few cities vote solidly for just one party! There is always a bit of a mix. Harper could take a few seats around Quebec City and some from some other areas and keep his 10 seats.

If August is right and Quebecers start to sense a Harper majority, they have proven a number of times before that they will get behind the parade! Quebec likes those who can do something for them! That is always the BQ and used to be the Liberals. The NDP, being perpetually in opposition, was largely ignored. Now the Conservatives occupy the position formerly held by the Liberals. It's quite possible they may take as many seats as formerly done by the Liberals. The NDP will likely be lucky to retain their one seat.

Unless something changes during the campaign, it is the LIBERALS who are doomed in Quebec!

With all Harper's lies, Duceppe is going to chew Harper up and spit him out for breakfast like he did today at his presser. It's already the talk of the province, and Duceppe's plan is to rid Quebec of Harper once and for all.

http://www.youtube.com/BlocQuebecois

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/319703/le-defi-de-quebec

[punked]

Coould I ask which polls have the greatest historical accuracy? National polls (conducted across the whole country) or provincal polls asking federal voting intention (done in each province)?

Angus Reid, Nanos and HD are usually closest IR and Ekos are often times the worst. Crop and Ledger in Quebec are the best there.

Edited March 26, 2011 by punked

[Harry]

Angus Reid, Nanos and HR are usually closest IR and Ekos are often times the worst. Crop and Ledger in Quebec are the best there.

Excellent punked.

And I agree with you.

IR tends to favour the Conservatives and EKOS tends to favour the Liberals.

Edited March 26, 2011 by Harry

[August1991]

How can you tell? How many seats are involved? There are always areas in any metro city where people are more business class, union factory workers, rich folks or whatever. So some ridings might hog certain types of voters over the other ones.

It's a small sample poll but I think that it's reasonably accurate - for the moment.

The Conservatives have 3 seats in Quebec City and they could possibly lose these in the election. Andre Arthur sits as an independent but votes with the Conservatives and as in the past, he will likely face no Conservative opponent. I think the 4 seats the Cosnervatives have on the south shore of Quebec (Beauce etc.) are safe. They have 2 seats in the Saguenay and 1 in Gatineau.

The Liberals are fine in Quebec. They have 14 seats (mostly in anglo/allo Montreal) and they will likely keep most of them.

The Quebec breakdown will be roughly (+/- 2 or 3 seats) Bloc 50, Libs 15, Tories 10. Mulcair (NDP) might or might not keep his seat but I see no breakthrough for the NDP elsewhere.

As you note WB, the one wild card is if there are consistent media reports of the Conservatives forming a majority government. Then, some Bloc voters may switch to the Tories and some ridings (eg. Kamouraska) could come into play.

-----

I will repeat it again that Harper deserves tremendous credit for having kept this disparate group of Quebec MPs in his caucus. No WASP Canadian PM has ever won seats in francophone Quebec purely on his won. Harper did it.

Not good news for Harper in Quebec City area.

Harry, I recognize that your blind hatred of Harper colours your analysis but does it also make you misread posts on this forum? I posted a link to the same Quebec City poll in this thread. Edited March 26, 2011 by August1991

[Scotty]

With all Harper's lies, Duceppe is going to chew Harper up and spit him out for breakfast like he did today at his presser. It's already the talk of the province, and Duceppe's plan is to rid Quebec of Harper once and for all.

http://www.youtube.com/BlocQuebecois

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/319703/le-defi-de-quebec

Can I say it's pretty goddam strange to see erstwhile federalists cheering on Duceppe and hoping his separatist party gets more seats and votes.

[Jack Weber]

Can I say it's pretty goddam strange to see erstwhile federalists cheering on Duceppe and hoping his separatist party gets more seats and votes.

We would'nt have to deal with the likes of Duceppe if it was'nt for Mr. Mulroney constantly throwing small c secessionists in Quebec constant constitutional bones...

Do the names Lucien Bouchard or Pierre Cadieux mean anything to you?

[August1991]

Can I say it's pretty goddam strange to see erstwhile federalists cheering on Duceppe and hoping his separatist party gets more seats and votes.

Some English-Canadians hate Harper so much that - to borrow a famous line - if Harper ran candidates in Hell, they would have a kind word to say about the Devil.

[August1991]

Potential thread drift ahead...

We would'nt have to deal with the likes of Duceppe if it was'nt for Mr. Mulroney constantly throwing small c secessionists in Quebec constant constitutional bones...

Do the names Lucien Bouchard or Pierre Cadieux mean anything to you?

Trudeau's patriation of the Constitution had one significantly absent partner. Quebec's National Assembly unanimously opposed the patriation.

When Mulroney managed to correct this fundamental fault line left by Trudeau, the master himself stepped in to destroy the Meech Lake Accord. The end result was the division of the Progressive Conservative Party into the Reform Party and the Bloc Québécois.

Harper has managed to patch the party back together. With time, he may be able to correct this glaring void in Canada's constitutional situation.

[Battletoads]

Can I say it's pretty goddam strange to see erstwhile federalists cheering on Duceppe and hoping his separatist party gets more seats and votes.

Strange yes, but only because they figure the bloc will do less damage to the country.

Edited March 26, 2011 by Battletoads

[Harry]

Some English-Canadians hate Harper so much that - to borrow a famous line - if Harper ran candidates in Hell, they would have a kind word to say about the Devil.

August you really do obsess about the word "hate". Not cool.

You obviously don't like it but we are in an extended period of minority governments in Canada. That doesn't work for Harper as we saw the Harper Government found Guilty of Contempt of Parliament yesterday. Unfortunately Harper kept acting like he had a majority, but all he has ever had are minorities, and you have to be able to work with others in that kind of situation. Harper choose not to, and that is why we are having this 4th Canadian election in 7 years, several of which have been caused by Harper.

I believe in the coalition and Duceppe is an integral part of it, and if Duceppe ran across Canada he would probably clean up.

[Harry]

Strange yes, but only because they figure the bloc will do less damage to the country.

Bingo!

[Saipan]

Can I say it's pretty goddam strange to see erstwhile federalists cheering on Duceppe and hoping his separatist party gets more seats and votes.

Not really. Ignatieff band will go for anything at all to get Harper. And most people see it.

[TimG]

You obviously don't like it but we are in an extended period of minority governments in Canada. That doesn't work for Harper as we saw the Harper Government found Guilty of Contempt of Parliament yesterday.

You obsess about this contempt thing too much. The only reason it even came up was because Harper had a minority. When Chretien was in charge he would tell opposition leaders fishing for dirt to buzz off and there was nothing they could do about. It is pretty rediculous to claim that Harper was acting any differently from any other PM we have had in the last 50 years. Edited March 26, 2011 by TimG

[Scotty]

Strange yes, but only because they figure the bloc will do less damage to the country.

Then they're pretty bloody stupid.

[Harry]

Harry, I recognize that your blind hatred of Harper colours your analysis but does it also make you misread posts on this forum? I posted a link to the same Quebec City poll in this thread.

Sorry August I missed your post, and yes I quite often disagree with Harper's policies. But please do me a favour and lose the words hatred and hate from your posts. It's getting tiresome - ok?

Edited March 26, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

You obsess about this contempt thing too much. The only reason it even came up was because Harper had a minority. When Chretien was in charge he would tell opposition leaders fishing for dirt to buzz off and there was nothing they could do about. It is pretty rediculous to claim that Harper was acting any differently from any other PM we have had in the last 50 years.

TimG,

What kind of a fantasy world do you live in?

Canada is not in a majority government situation. We have been in extended period of minority governments. Please don't tell me you don't you understand the difference.

Edited March 26, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Then they're pretty bloody stupid.

Thanks for sharing.