Federal Election Polls

[cybercoma]

I get it. When a poll reflects well for the NDP, it's perfectly fine. But when a poll reflects poorly for the NDP it's out of context. You people are hilarious.

Actually, it's when 7 polls reflect the NDP within 5% and one pops up way out in right field that you have to question the results. It's like all the studies showing smoking causes cancer, then the one "scientist" that's paid by the tobacco companies comes out and says it doesn't. I'm going to tend to believe the consensus, not the outlier.

Now if the polls keep coming out showing the same downward shift, I will agree with you and be disappointed that the NDP have slipped. Until then, you're acting like a blowhard.

[Shady]

Only one poll is showing what you want.

It's the latest poll. Yes, I agree that there should be a poll of polls like what Real Clear Politics does for American political polls. But it's the latest poll, and I'm posting about it. Deal with it crybaby.

[Shady]

Actually, it's when 7 polls reflect the NDP within 5%

Those are old polls. One of the polls that reflected the NDP within 5% is from the same poll I'm citing now. Deal with. Polls change. You guys are like children.

[Smallc]

It's the latest poll.

There were three polls released today.

[Shady]

There were three polls released today.

I haven't seen any other polls released. Post the information then, instead of just complaining.

[wyly]

angus reid poll released today up to april 29 has some interesting figures...if the vote were spread evenly across quebec it should be a sweep of quebec seats for the NDP with 45% of the vote and the cons at 13%, but that's not how it works in the real world however but the gains in quebec for the NDP will be significant...NDP percentage in atlantic region sits at an impressive 46%, I think this is largely concentrated in NS...

people speculate that the undecided voters split evenly among the parties but national polling figures seem to indicate liberal voters are moving to the NDP in mass, the NDP gains equaling liberal losses I can't see the undecided doing any differently...

probably the most interesting election I've ever seen in my nearly 6 decades...

Edited April 30, 2011 by wyly

[Smallc]

I haven't seen any other polls released. Post the information then, instead of just complaining.

The polls are in this thread.

Corrected

Edited April 30, 2011 by Smallc

[August1991]

There were three polls released today.

Leger:

The new poll for QMI Agency says the Tories sit at 36% support, followed by the NDP at 31% and the Liberals at 21%.

Canoe

Nanos:

The poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail reports that 38 per cent of surveyed voters support the Conservatives nationally, while 29.6 per cent support the NDP.

The Liberals sit at 23.3 per cent support, while the Bloc Quebecois (5.2 per cent) and the Greens (3.1 per cent) sit well behind the top-three parties.

CTV

Ipsos-Reid:

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would command 38% in support, down five percentage points from a week ago, according to results of an Ipsos Reid poll commissioned by Postmedia News and Global National. The NDP would claim 33% support, up nine points in the last week. The Liberals have dropped three more points and now sit at 18%. The Green party sits at 4% nationally, unchanged from a week ago.

Link

Angus-Reid:

The NDP are at 33 per cent support nationwide, up three percentage points in recent days and just four points back from the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent, up two, according to the latest Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse.

The Liberals have dropped by three percentage points this week to 19 per cent. That’s where the NDP stood at the start of the campaign, illustrating the stunning turn in fortunes for both parties. The Green Party is up one percentage point to 4 per cent.

Toronto Star

I agree with posts above. The Conservative numbers are remarkably stable in the high 30s. The big change is in Quebec where the Bloc vote has gone to the NDP.

In 1993, the Progressive Conservatives got 16% of the popular vote and won just 2 seats.

I think the Liberals will win more seats now though because their vote is more concentrated. They should keep some in urban Toronto, west Montreal and Vancouver.

Edited April 30, 2011 by August1991

[Shady]

NDP percentage in atlantic region sits at an impressive 46%

I'm not sure where you get that from. That number isn't even close the the mid-20s other polls are showing.

However, from the latest Angus-Reid poll:

The Conservatives are roughly at the same level of support they had in the 2008 federal race

The Conservatives continue to post an impressive retention rate

The Conservatives have stretched their lead in Ontario, where the party must make gains if Stephen Harper is to achieve his goal of winning a majority. The Tories are at 41 per cent, with the NDP at 27 per cent, the Liberals at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent

[wyly]

Only one poll is showing what you want. It's out of context. I don't want the NDP to get first place, I want them to get second.

I'm good with a ndp 2nd too, as long as the conservative regime is denied a majority...

[wyly]

a couple of more observations of the AR poll...

in ontario liberal support seems to be holding at 26%, in 2008 it was 26.2... so any gain in conservative support may not hurt the liberals urban support if the conservative gains are in ridings they already have...it would be the same in alberta an overall conservative gain in popular vote doesn't help them and the NDP will still likely retain their only seat in edmonton...

BC appears to be the only region where liberal losses seem to split evenly between NDP and conservatives...

edit: ignore that part in bold I read the data incorrectly liberal support in 2008 was 33.9, so the libs have lost considerable support in Ont but where? in tory ridings or liberal held ridings?

Edited April 30, 2011 by wyly

[Shady]

a couple of more observations of the AR poll...

in ontario liberal support seems to be holding at 26%, in 2008 it was 26.2... so any gain in conservative support may not hurt the liberals urban support if the conservative gains are in ridings they already have...it would be the same in alberta an overall conservative gain in popular vote doesn't help them and the NDP will still likely retain their only seat in edmonton...

BC appears to be the only region where liberal losses seem to split evenly between NDP and conservatives...

Those are both good observations. I didn't know about the Liberal support holding in Ontario.

[wyly]

so if the liberal voters are moving to the ndp should we interpret that as liberals casting their vote in favour of a political merge with the ndp?

[nittanylionstorm07]

The guy at EKOS Politics is reporting "very interesting" and "very different" things in his polling from yesterday which is why he isn't going to post anything today... they are wrapping things up today for one final post and projection tomorrow.

In one tweet, he says "i imagine the CPC internals are showing what we are seeing now, might explain the drive-by massage gambit"

This is very very interesting, and it could be hinting at an NDP lead.

[wyly]

The guy at EKOS Politics is reporting "very interesting" and "very different" things in his polling from yesterday which is why he isn't going to post anything today... they are wrapping things up today for one final post and projection tomorrow.

ya we already know who was behind the "massage gambit"...the same backroom crew who tried to feed the "Iggy in US marine combat gear" gambit...

In one tweet, he says "i imagine the CPC internals are showing what we are seeing now, might explain the drive-by massage gambit"

This is very very interesting, and it could be hinting at an NDP lead.

or they hope one little push as ugly as it is may help them gain a majority by vote splitting...if they don't get it now they're done there will be no next time for harper...

[DrGreenthumb]

ya we already know who was behind the "massage gambit"...the same backroom crew who tried to feed the "Iggy in US marine combat gear" gambit...

or they hope one little push as ugly as it is may help them gain a majority by vote splitting...if they don't get it now they're done there will be no next time for harper...

There should really be some lawsuits over this smear campaign.

[Molly]

so if the liberal voters are moving to the ndp should we interpret that as liberals casting their vote in favour of a political merge with the ndp?

More like a vote against the CPC, at any cost. That's what it looks like here, in any case.

[Slim MacSquinty]

First off how is this any different than the kitten eater hidden agenda crap we've been hearing for years, except that there is indeed a morsel of truth at the center of this.

Second if this is true then no wonder he's earned the name happy jack, since he's had fifteen years of borrowed time given the cops, who owe Jack Layton no favours whatsoever, have kept this under wraps.

And no wonder he's happy, in 1996, living in subsidised housing, working part time as a professor at Ryerson and sitting on City Counsel, riding his bike to the rub and tug with his wife's permission, wow its every socialists dream! Now I wonder how we can work the hernia business into this scenario?

[punked]

There should really be some lawsuits over this smear campaign.

I am hearing there will be. I bet it will depend on if Jack becomes PM or not though. If he doesn't he stands to make a big monetary gain from it.

Also because leaking police notes is crime in Canada, I believe punishable by 5 years in prison the Toronto police department are now trying to find where it came from.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/police-launch-investigation-into-layton-massage-clinic-breach/article2005429/

Edited April 30, 2011 by punked

[punked]

First off how is this any different than the kitten eater hidden agenda crap we've been hearing for years, except that there is indeed a morsel of truth at the center of this.

Second if this is true then no wonder he's earned the name happy jack, since he's had fifteen years of borrowed time given the cops, who owe Jack Layton no favours whatsoever, have kept this under wraps.

And no wonder he's happy, in 1996, living in subsidised housing, working part time as a professor at Ryerson and sitting on City Counsel, riding his bike to the rub and tug with his wife's permission, wow its every socialists dream! Now I wonder how we can work the hernia business into this scenario?

Jack Layton never lived in subsidized housing you are showing how much LIARS conservatives really are.

He lived in a Housing Co-op where part of the housing pays much higher rent to subsidize the rent for those who live in the lower income housing. He actually paid higher rent then most to subsidize for those who could not afford to pay rent in Toronto. How about you get your facts straight because you are a Liar. I don't fault a man for Living in a Co-op so that those who make less then him can also have a place to live. Apparently you do.

[Sandy MacNab]

Jack Layton never lived in subsidized housing you are showing how much LIARS conservatives really are.

He lived in a Housing Co-op where part of the housing pays much higher rent to subsidize the rent for those who live in the lower income housing. He actually paid higher rent then most to subsidize for those who could not afford to pay rent in Toronto. How about you get your facts straight because you are a Liar. I don't fault a man for Living in a Co-op so that those who make less then him can also have a place to live. Apparently you do.

That Jack Layton is a prince....har har har!

[punked]

That Jack Layton is a prince....har har har!

I'm just correcting your lie. I assume you googled it and found what I said was true in that he did live in subsidize housing but he was one subsidizing it not the tax payer and was paying more for it then most in Toronto so that those who earned less would still have a place to live. Sucks to be a lying conservative these days because NDPers push back unlike the Liberals.

[Smallc]

This is very very interesting, and it could be hinting at an NDP lead.

I'm thinking it might actually be an NDP drop.

[wyly]

I'm thinking it might actually be an NDP drop.

IMO at this point any polls taken become irrelevant even ones proven to be the most accurate in the past, there are little daily jumps up and down that no longer indicate anything on their own...looking back at all the polls during the campaign you can see oddball results that are too high or two low, by itself a one day poll can not indicate a trend...due to the lag in collecting the data we won't know the accuracy of the polls until after the election...

one thing that I find disturbing is CTV's obvious contractual link to Nanos, when CTV does a poll report it rolls out Nik Nanos as if he is the only definitive source of polls, completely ignoring all other pollsters...Angus Reid, EKOS, Ipsos Reid, Harris Decima, Forum research apparently do not exist

[blueblood]

I'm thinking it might actually be an NDP drop.

I was reading posts in the "archives" here from the 06 campaign and the tories pre election were polling in the low 40s up until the election. The tories like the ndp were enjoying a surge and the post traffic was a lot of excited centre right posters similar to ndp supporters today.

Something tells me this surge will moderate on election day like the tories surge in 2006.