Federal Election Polls

[Molly]

Mmmm. I sure wish that 36,37,38 was more like 26,27,28.

I'll be satisfied and relieved when this one is over if the result is anything at all except a CPC majority.

[Bob]

Bob, did you read about the Waffle movement yet?

I don't care about what labels a specific party attaches to itself or what labels another party tries to distance itself from. It is not inaccurate to describe the NDP as a socialistic party that seeks to increase government intervention in the economy, as well as the social sphere.

[Smallc]

I support the Conservative economic policy generally (though I believe they're cutting the wrong taxes. Personal income tax cuts would have been far more effective. In that way, Paul Martin was much better than then.), but that doesn't mean I think the NDP are socialsits. I think some of their stated platform policies are misguided (job creating tax credits), but I don't think that they're wrong to talk abut lowering small business taxes, or slightly raising corporate taxes. I'm not sure what you've seen to show that I don't know what I'm talking about.

[cybercoma]

I don't care about what labels a specific party attaches to itself or what labels another party tries to distance itself from. It is not inaccurate to describe the NDP as a socialistic party that seeks to increase government intervention in the economy, as well as the social sphere.

Less writing, Bob. More reading.

[cybercoma]

I think some of their stated platform policies are misguided (job creating tax credits)

Which is funny, considering the Conservatives stole that plank, but instead of giving $4500 for each new job created, they're only giving $1200. Talk about Bizarro Canada... the NDP giving a bigger tax break than the Conservatives.

They're socialists though.

Edited April 30, 2011 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

Which is funny, considering the Conservatives stole that plank, but instead of giving $4500 for each new job created, they're only giving $1200. Talk about Bizarro Canada... the NDP giving a bigger tax break than the Conservatives.

They're socialists though.

Most definitely socialists .

The reality is, the Liberal Party of Canada of the 90's - 00's were the best financial managers this country ever had. The current Conservative government hasn't shown any real financial genius. I wish the Liberals would have been something that I could have supported in this case. They're just so...lost. I almost hope for a Conservative majority, so that they can do some soul searching and rebuild.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Smallc

[Bryan]

Interesting qualifier on those EKOS numbers.

ONTARIO VOTE SPLITTING FAVOURS CONSERVATIVES

EKOS:

while the Conservatives have lost ground to the NDP and have remained flat in Ontario, the new tie between Liberals and NDP in Ontario is causing vote splitting that has elevated the Conservative Party’s prospects. While they have remained under 40 points in Ontario, they would now be ticketed to receive the lion’s share of Ontario seats

[cybercoma]

Paul Martin was truly the greatest Minister of Finance we have ever had in this country, but one of the worst Prime Ministers (I blame Chretien for poisoning the well). What's even better about the Liberal's fiscal policy in those times was that they listened to researchers and made necessary changes to make their policies better. Originally in '96 they had the CHST, but they responded to criticism about social support suffering when an aging population demands more money into health transfers. So they split the program into CHT and the CST. This is how the government should operate. When a problem is identified with your policies, listen to the research and advice and be flexible enough to change your policies for the better. Good on them.

However, they're not that party anymore and I the Conservatives certainly don't have that quality about them. They need a majority because they're so inflexible and unable to accomodate research and advice. That has left me with no other choice than the NDP.

[Bryan]

The reality is, the Liberal Party of Canada of the 90's - 00's were the best financial managers this country ever had.

No. They just left the bills unpaid and commitments unmet, and raided billions of dollars off the books. That's not financial management, it's borderline fraud.

Martin was an incompetent finance minister, Chretien said so in his book.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Bryan

[Smallc]

I'm thinking that if today's polls hold, we'll have a Conservative majority with an NDP official opposition. There will be a Bloc and Liberal presence....but it won't be very large.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Smallc

[Smallc]

No. They just left the bills unpaid and commitments unmet, and raided billions of dollars off the books. That's not financial management, it's borderline fraud.

That's not even close to true. The bills were paid and more. The Conservatives are the ones running a deficit.

[eyeball]

I don't care about what labels a specific party attaches to itself or what labels another party tries to distance itself from. It is not inaccurate to describe the NDP as a socialistic party that seeks to increase government intervention in the economy, as well as the social sphere.

What do you call conservative socialists who want the state to intervene in people's morals?

What do you call libertarians and small-c conservatives that hold their noses and crawl under the tent with them?

Edited April 30, 2011 by eyeball

[Smallc]

However, they're not that party anymore

We don't have a party like that. Too bad for us.

[ToadBrother]

I'm thinking that if today's polls hold, we'll have a Conservative majority with an NDP official opposition. There will be a Bloc and Liberal presence....but it won't be very large.

It looks like the Nanos poll is up to its usual tricks, giving the Tories more headway than any of the other polls.

[Smallc]

It looks like the Nanos poll is up to its usual tricks, giving the Tories more headway than any of the other polls.

Yeah, that seems to be the case too.

[Bryan]

It looks like the Nanos poll is up to its usual tricks, giving the Tories more headway than any of the other polls.

Nanos' generally UNDER reports CPC support. His final poll in 2008 had them at 34.2, they got 37.6. (link)

[cybercoma]

Nanos' generally UNDER reports CPC support. His final poll in 2008 had them at 34.2, they got 37.6. (link)

I find it very unlikely that Nanos's latest poll is accurate, when the NDP are about 5% away from the Conservatives in all the other polls. While they very well could have under-estimated them in the last election (since the Conservatives were gaining support, while the Liberals were losing support), the circumstances here are different. It is the NDP this time around that is gaining support, so they will likely be the party that's under-represented this time around.

[wyly]

Nanos' generally UNDER reports CPC support. His final poll in 2008 had them at 34.2, they got 37.6. (link)

nanos is all over the place they poll by phone which misses the youth vote completely and evidence points to the who are left leaning are very engaged in this election and nanos also because of the phone polling over represents those most likely the phone, rural, old and under educated-conservative strengths...

the most accurate pollster last election was Angus Reid and they nearly nailed it for every party and AR has it now at

Angus Reid:

CPC: 37

NDP: 33

LPC 19

if Nanos is correct now using your logic the conservatives are at over 41% which a fantasy, out of touch with every other pollster...

[wyly]

I find it very unlikely that Nanos's latest poll is accurate, when the NDP are about 5% away from the Conservatives in all the other polls. While they very well could have under-estimated them in the last election (since the Conservatives were gaining support, while the Liberals were losing support), the circumstances here are different. It is the NDP this time around that is gaining support, so they will likely be the party that's under-represented this time around.

yes polls always lag actual end results they cannot anticipate sudden surges or drops from the a day or two before election day...a interview with a couple of pollsters confirm surges like the NDP rise don't typically stop until election day, the conservatives have flat lined the liberals may lose another point or two..

[Harry]

When you look at the regionals the NDP surge is obviously continuing especially in Ontario, and they appear headed for major gains in BC as well, while it now appears the Cons may be lucky to win any seats in Quebec. Monday nite should be a fabulous experience for progressive voters in Canada.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Harry

[Shady]

When you look at the regionals the NDP surge is obviously continuing especially in Ontario, and they appear headed for major gains in BC as well

You must be working off old data. The NDP so-called surge is basically centred in Quebec. The NDP have dropped in Atlantic Canada, dropped in the Praries, and dropped in BC. They've also dropped overall in Canada to 29%. Conservatives are at 38%, Liberals at 23%.

Keep spinning.

[Keepitsimple]

It'll be very interesting. The Tory vote is rock solid.....while those voters on the Left are made up of true Leftist/Socialists, the anybody-but-Harper crowd, and the last vestiges of the old Liberal Party loyalists. What this election has shown is that these voters are mostly very "soft" - and will flit between Liberal, Green and NDP (and the Bloc). They don't know what they want....but they know that Harper - or the Conservative platform ain't it. They are in search of a purpose - of a leader - and Jack at least gives them a feeling of empowerment - to at least vote for someone they like. Monday will tell whether these people will actually cast their vote - or simply cheer from the sidelines.

So....who knows what will happen. But if Harper wins another strong minority - what mandate have the people given him? The opposition likes to say that 2 out of 3 people reject Harper......really that's more like 6 out of 10...but who's counting. The point is that 40% of Canadians are committed to what they want. Much of the 60% of the remainder are flailing around looking for a cause....not really sure about anything - that's why they so easily moved freom the Bloc and Greens and Liberals to the NDP. Emotion has driven the cause of the left. How do you translate that into a mandate that can be used as realsitic, pragmatic comprimising material to "temper" the rock-solid Tory policies?

Edited April 30, 2011 by Keepitsimple

[Smallc]

You must be working off old data.

What old data? You're working off of one poll. You're taking things completely out of context, like you always do.

[Shady]

What old data? You're working off of one poll. You're taking things completely out of context, like you always do.

I get it. When a poll reflects well for the NDP, it's perfectly fine. But when a poll reflects poorly for the NDP it's out of context. You people are hilarious.

[Smallc]

I get it. When a poll reflects well for the NDP, it's perfectly fine. But when a poll reflects poorly for the NDP it's out of context.

Only one poll is showing what you want. It's out of context. I don't want the NDP to get first place, I want them to get second.