Federal Election Polls

[Harry]

Sweet!

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 30 / Angus R / 37.0% / 33.0% / 19.0% / NDP now only 4% out of first place

Apr 29 / Ipsos R / 38.0% / 33.0% / 18.0% / 7% / NDP within 5% of first place

Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place

Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place

Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place

Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%

Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place

Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place

Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 3% of first place

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos R / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

[Harry]

Angus Reid (Most accurate pollster in 2008 GE) Poll - Saturday, April 30, 2011 now showing the NDP within 4% of first place

Canada

Cons - 35% / 37% / Up 2%

NDP - 30% / 33% / Up 3% NDP now only 4% out of first place

Libs - 22% / 19% / Down 3%

Quebec

NPD - 45%

Bloc - 26%

Libs - 16%

Cons - 13%

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/29/01-4394847-le-npd-gonfle-a-bloc.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

Edited April 30, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Looks like the NDP will be picking up several seats in BC from both the Cons and the Libs.

YAFFE: B.C. is fertile ground for surging NDP

A redrawing of the province’s electoral map is entirely possible on election night, with about a dozen seats up for grabs

British Columbia is demonstrating just how much things can shift in the five weeks of an election campaign.

With voters set to cast ballots Monday, a redrawing of the province’s political map is entirely possible.

Since the start of the electoral contest in late March, both Liberals and Greens have lost support in B.C.

Support for the New Democrats, meanwhile, has grown like Topsy — as it has elsewhere in Canada. And, most important, the party is peaking at exactly the right time.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html#ixzz1Kz626B98'>http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html#ixzz1Kz626B98

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/YAFFE+fertile+ground+surging/4701412/story.html

[mikedavid00]

Looks like the NDP will be picking up several seats in BC from both the Cons and the Libs.

A conservative would never vote NDP.

All that's happening is that immigrants and some french people are swinging their vote. That's all that's happening.

This Jack Layton massage thing is front page news for sure. But the media right now seems to be burying the story so who knows what will happen.

I have soured away from Layton as a 'good guy' and now no longer 'like him'.

[Harry]

A conservative would never vote NDP.

All that's happening is that immigrants and some french people are swinging their vote. That's all that's happening.

This Jack Layton massage thing is front page news for sure. But the media right now seems to be burying the story so who knows what will happen.

I have soured away from Layton as a 'good guy' and now no longer 'like him'.

I love Cons who bury their heads in the sand. It makes the job of defeating them that much easier.

[mikedavid00]

I love Cons who bury their heads in the sand. It makes the job of defeating them that much easier.

You guys won't be able to defeat the CPC. You are just vote splitting the far left as usual from left ridings..

Now I know why they call him 'Jack'. lol.. get it?

[Smallc]

Sudden Surge for the Conservatives, according to Nanos. Perhaps Harper will get his majority:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110430/nanos-poll-saturday-110430/20110430?s_name=election2011

C: 38

N: 29.6

L.: 23.3

B: 5.2 (!)

According to this, the NDP won't be gaining any seats in Atlantic Canada or the Prairies.

[Evening Star]

Think this massage parlour story is actually having an impact...?

[Smallc]

Think this massage parlour story is actually having an impact...?

No, it was out too late last night to be part of this poll. This could either be a blip, or fear of 'socialists' in the traditional conservative regions of the Prairies and the Maritimes.

[Bob]

No, it was out too late last night to be part of this poll. This could either be a blip, or fear of 'socialists' in the traditional conservative regions of the Prairies and the Maritimes.

You're suggesting that the NDP can't be described as a socialist party?

[Smallc]

You're suggesting that the NDP can't be described as a socialist party?

I'm suggesting that some people think that they're a socialist party, simply because they campaign under then name NDP.

[Bob]

I'm suggesting that some people think that they're a socialist party, simply because they campaign under then name NDP.

They are a socialist party. As socialist as can be in the Canadian context, anyways. They clearly advocate for a greater role for the government in the economy. They use anti-corporate rhetoric and manipulate class-warfare ideology to appeal to losers. They want more regulation over everything (social and economic spheres), more deference to the "international community", more taxation, and more spending.

[Smallc]

They clearly advocate for a greater role for the government in the economy.

Yes, they do, but that isn't really a socialist thing. Canada has a mixed system, with both capitalistic and socialistic elements. Other than a few hard line fascists and or libertarians in the Conservatives and some communists or real socialists that live in the country, the only thing that the parties argue about is how far the socialistic element can go. The NDP wants our mixed system to be more like western or northern Europe.

[Bryan]

I'm suggesting that some people think that they're a socialist party, simply because they campaign under then name NDP.

Have you read their manifesto constitution?

[Smallc]

Have you read their manifesto constitution?

I don't really care about that. They aren't going to govern as socialists. The Manitoba NDP has the same Constitution. Do they govern as socialists (for some reason, I expect you'll say yes, even though you'll be completely wrong if you do).

[cybercoma]

They are a socialist party. As socialist as can be in the Canadian context, anyways.

This is the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time. That's like saying the Democrats are socialist, well as socialist as can be in the American context anyway.

[Bob]

Yes, they do, but that isn't really a socialist thing. Canada has a mixed system, with both capitalistic and socialistic elements. Other than a few hard line fascists and or libertarians in the Conservatives and some communists or real socialists that live in the country, the only thing that the parties argue about is how far the socialistic element can go. The NDP wants our mixed system to be more like western or northern Europe.

The NDP can accurately be described as socialists. You and I clearly don't live on the same planet.

Don't take this as an insult because I mean this sincerely - I highly recommend you study some elementary economics. Maybe find a first-year textbook or something? It is clear you never studied the subject at an academic level and I would assume that a politically-inclined person such as yourself would get a great deal of satisfaction in educating yourself on this subject. I also don't mean this with reference to how we define socialism or whether we can apply the label to the NDP, but in reference to several comments I've seen from you over time that illustrate a lack of knowledge on this subject.

[Smallc]

The NDP can accurately be described as socialists. You and I clearly don't live on the same planet.

No they can't, in fact. They still support the capitalist base of our system. They aren't at current, proposing widespread changes to that system. Condescension on your part isn't going to change my position.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Smallc

[Bob]

This is the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time. That's like saying the Democrats are socialist, well as socialist as can be in the American context anyway.

There are many socialistic elements to the Democratic party. I wouldn't describe them as socialists, but then again I'm talking about the NDP here. Describing the NDP as socialistic doesn't mean I need to apply the same label to the Democrats in the USA. The NDP are certainly not the same as the American democrats. Does that really need to be said? Considering that there is no official qualification of socialism, I am no wrong. The NDP is very socialistic. I stand by that statement for reasons I've already explained. How would you describe the NDPs? As centrists? As centre-left? How would you describe socialism - as far-left?

[Smallc]

Considering that there is no official qualification of socialism, I am no wrong.

What? What are you talking about? Socialism does have a definition, you know.

[Bob]

No they can't, in fact. They still support the capitalist base of our system. They aren't at current, proposing widespread changes to that system. Condescension on your part isn't going to change my position.

"Base"? Meaning what, 51% of our economy? I don't know what a "base" is with respect to the economy. The NDP can be accurately described as socialists. They want to socialize more and more components of the economy - that's socialism. I wasn't trying to be condescending, either. I was sincerely telling you something I think you'd appreciate. Take it or leave it.

You're welcome to disagree with my usage of the term, but you certainly don't own the term "socialism" and don't have exclusive license to use it where you feel appropriate.

[Bob]

What? What are you talking about? Socialism does have a definition, you know.

I'm well aware of that, but it can't be quantified. You're the one throwing around fake concepts such as "base" of an economy. You're the one with the high-school level education on these issues, not I.

[Smallc]

"Base"? Meaning what, 51% of our economy? I don't know what a "base" is with respect to the economy.

The fundamental elements of our economy. They are not socialist. There is no central planning or widespread public/cooperative ownership, and the NDP isn't proposing that.

The NDP can be accurately described as socialists.

You keep saying that, but you offer nothing in the way of proof.

They want to socialize more and more components of the economy - that's socialism.

No that isn't. Liberals want to do the same thing often. Are they socialist? This remains a capitalist system, and the NDP hasn't said they want to change that basic principle.

You're welcome to disagree with my usage of the term, but you certainly don't own the term "socialism" and don't have exclusive license to use it where you feel appropriate.

I realize I don't own the term - but then neither do you.

I'm well aware of that, but it can't be quantified. You're the one throwing around fake concepts such as "base" of an economy. You're the one with the high-school level education on these issues, not I.

With all due respect, you are being condescending. You have no idea what my educational background is. I'm done having this discussion with you.

[BubberMiley]

You're the one with the high-school level education on these issues, not I.

Yes, you're clearly the one who didn't make it past junior high.

[Bryan]

The three most recent polls:

Angus Reid:

CPC: 37

NDP: 33

LPC 19

http://www.angus-reid.com/

Nanos:

CPC: 38

NDP: 29.6

LPC: 23.3

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110429-BallotE.pdf

Ipsos:

CPC: 38

NDP: 33

LPC: 18

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5224

NDP surge has slowed, but they aren't falling back either. Looks like they have eaten the Liberals' lunch for real.

CPC support is actually higher now than it was right before the last election.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Bryan