Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

Harry, you may be impressed with NPR and Harvard, but most Canadians are not. I would prefer to live in a society where fellow citizens have a healthy scepticism of people who claim to be experts.

Translation: I'm a Tory supporter, and thus very distrustful of anyone smarter than me.

[punked]

Translation: I'm a Tory supporter, and thus very distrustful of anyone smarter than me.

Speak for yourself I know for a fact Iggy isn't smarter then me.

[M.Dancer]

Speak for yourself I know for a fact Iggy isn't smarter then me.

he might be

[TimG]

Translation: I'm a Tory supporter, and thus very distrustful of anyone smarter than me.

The reason experts get into trouble with some people is they frequently confuse decisions which are really value based with decisions that are based on objective analysis. e.g. the observation that CO2 causes the planet to warm does not automatically imply that we must immediately join a UN sponsered program to ration CO2 emissions. Yet many experts do exactly that.

[ToadBrother]

The reason experts get into trouble with some people is they frequently confuse decisions which are really value based with decisions that are based on objective analysis. e.g. the observation that CO2 causes the planet to warm does not automatically imply that we must immediately join a UN sponsered program to ration CO2 emissions. Yet many experts do exactly that.

Scientists give their best explanations and recommendations. Politicians are ultimately responsible.

At any rate that has precious little to do with August's post, which seems to be more a kind of anti-intellectualism that the Tories have now espoused. To listen to guys like August, if you read anything more complicated than People magazine, you're suspicious and ought not be given power.

Edited April 20, 2011 by ToadBrother

[TimG]

Scientists give their best explanations and recommendations. Politicians are ultimately responsible.

I agree that is the way it supposed to work. Yet if politicians decide that factors other than science mean the recommendations must be ignored then they are castigated for "ignoring the science" - many times by those same scientists who are really shills for a political cause.

At any rate that has precious little to do with August's post, which seems to be more a kind of anti-intellectualism that the Tories have now espoused.

I am suggesting there is a rational explanation for the anti-intellectualism - and a way to do something about it without caving into it.

[August1991]

Translation: I'm a Tory supporter, and thus very distrustful of anyone smarter than me.

Who decides who is smarter than me?

TB, I thought the Left's mantra was: Question Authority.

At any rate that has precious little to do with August's post, which seems to be more a kind of anti-intellectualism that the Tories have now espoused. To listen to guys like August, if you read anything more complicated than People magazine, you're suspicious and ought not be given power.

TB, pardon me if I question your claim that everyone who agrees with you is smart and everyone else is an anti-intellectual. Edited April 20, 2011 by August1991

[ToadBrother]

I agree that is the way it supposed to work. Yet if politicians decide that factors other than science mean the recommendations must be ignored then they are castigated for "ignoring the science" - many times by those same scientists who are really shills for a political cause.

I'm not going to debate climate science here, other than to say that you have made your views quite well known on the topic, and I disagree with them.

I am suggesting there is a rational explanation for the anti-intellectualism - and a way to do something about it without caving into it.

Yes yes yes, if scientists just shut their holes and say nothing controversial, everyone will love them again.

[August1991]

Yes yes yes, if scientists just shut their holes and say nothing controversial, everyone will love them again.

Because we should trust scientists with PhDs, we should also trust Ignatieff because he has a PhD? Is that your logic?

Obama has a Nobel Prize. Should I be impressed? Should I blindly defer to him?

Edited April 20, 2011 by August1991

[Harry]

Scientists give their best explanations and recommendations. Politicians are ultimately responsible.

At any rate that has precious little to do with August's post, which seems to be more a kind of anti-intellectualism that the Tories have now espoused. To listen to guys like August, if you read anything more complicated than People magazine, you're suspicious and ought not be given power.

That's beautiful and so true!

[Evening Star]

The Tory numbers don't have to go up much - these Lib/NDP numbers suggest terrible splits where a Conservative will get through.

That's what I was questioning though. NDP and Liberal support may be concentrated in different areas. I haven't studied it closely but I'm not sure there actually are that many ridings that will work out that way.

[Harry]

That's what I was questioning though. NDP and Liberal support may be concentrated in different areas. I haven't studied it closely but I'm not sure there actually are that many ridings that will work out that way.

Exactly.

Never mind the Conservative mumbo-jumbo. This game is far from over. And from what we saw of Harper today it sure looks like he could use another day off.

[nittanylionstorm07]

That's what I was questioning though. NDP and Liberal support may be concentrated in different areas. I haven't studied it closely but I'm not sure there actually are that many ridings that will work out that way.

Precisely.

NDP is bleeding Bloc support... ie becoming the dominant federalist alternative party in mainly BQ areas.

Liberals are in dying mode in most of Quebec. They'd be lucky to get Justin Trudeau's seat out of this election.

[jbg]

I doubt that as Ignatieff said quite clearly "no coalition".

And you take that pledge seriously why? And how binding is it on a future LPC leader if/when Ignatieff is dumped?

[Mr.Canada]

Exactly.

Never mind the Conservative mumbo-jumbo. This game is far from over. And from what we saw of Harper today it sure looks like he could use another day off.

The numbers for the Tories and PM Harper are rock solid barely moving from the start of the campaign. The other leaders numbers have fluctuated massively throughout.

Looks like Canadians disagree with you and are ready to embrace PM Harper and give him his hard earned majority. Pm harper has guided Canada through a very difficult time and has done very well.

Pm Harper has protected Canada from evil and bad people like a good father would his children. Pm harper has strengthened our military to keep the bad people at bay and protect us from evil. PM Harper is a good man and a good father. He is Canada's father figure we so desperately need in this very trying time. Canada doesn't need a professor to scold us or a buddy to spend our money frivolously we need a strong leader, a leader we can look up to.

Think of the awe and pride of when you were a child looking up to your father, Canada deserves a leader that has the same effect on us all. Let's all gather around and listen to a great man.

[Harry]

And you take that pledge seriously why? And how binding is it on a future LPC leader if/when Ignatieff is dumped?

In a minority government you make arrangements, accords, coalitions, whatever you wish to call it, with other parties to govern - that's part of the process. Harper tried to do it in 2004 but Layton walked away.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[August1991]

In your Conservative dreams.

As Layton has now pulled the NDP even with the Liberals according to the latest AR poll (37%, 25%, 25%), and the NDP is the one party presently with positive momentum in the campaign, the NDP is now the biggest threat to a Tory majority.

And this is precisely what Harper wants.

Layton will split the anti-Harper vote in Ontario. My only fear is that this is "peaking" (as leftists would say) too soon. I reckon that there's no peak, and it doesn't matter.

[Harry]

And this is precisely what Harper wants.

Layton will split the anti-Harper vote in Ontario. My only fear is that this is "peaking" (as leftists would say) too soon. I reckon that there's no peak, and it doesn't matter.

Layton's on a roll / sur une lancee. Be careful what you wish for.

Angus Reid

Key findings

Voting Intention: Con. 36%, Lib. 25%, NDP 25%, BQ 9%, Grn. 5%

 Best PM: Harper 28%, Layton 27%, Ignatieff 13%, Duceppe 3%, May 3%

 Approval: Layton 50%, Harper 33%, Ignatieff 24%, May 24%, Duceppe 18%

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011.04.18_Politics_CAN.pdf

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[BC_chick]

I like Layton and I don't doubt that a lot of other people do (even if they're too embarrassed to admit it out loud).

But given that it's an Angus Reid poll, I'm inclined to believe the numbers are a little skewed in hopes that people would believe that a vote for the NDP is no longer a waste of a vote.

As August said, the real winner in that situatin would be Harper.

[Bryan]

In a minority government you make arrangements, accords, coalitions, whatever you wish to call it, with other parties to govern - that's part of the process. Harper tried to do it in 2004 but Layton walked away.

No he didn't.

[Molly]

Any one of them claiming that they wouldn't, Bryan, is either an admission of stoneheaded stupidity, or an outright lie. The entire argument and set of poses is preposterous.

The only leader showing any integrity at all over the issue is Gilles Duceppe. The rest, Layton, Harper and Ignatieff are all madly shovelling horse pucks.

[Harry]

Today's Nanos Research Poll shows a NDP gain of 4.3% against the Liberals, and a NDP gain of 3.2% against the Conservatives.

C - 39.1%, Down 0.7%

L - 28.4%, Down 1.8%

N - 19.8%, Up 2.5%

B - 7.7%, Down 0.9%

G - 3.9%, Up 0.8%

U - 15.2%, down 0.5%

The link below is for the regionals

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110419-BallotE.pdf

[Harry]

I like Layton and I don't doubt that a lot of other people do (even if they're too embarrassed to admit it out loud).

But given that it's an Angus Reid poll, I'm inclined to believe the numbers are a little skewed in hopes that people would believe that a vote for the NDP is no longer a waste of a vote.

As August said, the real winner in that situatin would be Harper.

That's the theory so I wouldn't expect a pure laine Conservative like August to say anything less.

What's you're point though about Angus Reid, as they were the most accurate pollster in the 2008 election?

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

Today's Nanos Research Poll shows a NDP gain of 4.3% against the Liberals, and a NDP gain of 3.2% against the Conservatives.

C - 39.1%, Down 0.7%

L - 28.4%, Down 1.8%

N - 19.8%, Up 2.5%

B - 7.7%, Down 0.9%

G - 3.9%, Up 0.8%

U - 15.2%, down 0.5%

The link below is for the regionals

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110419-BallotE.pdf

Interesting that Nanos is FINALLY showing what other polls have been showing. It's like his polls are delayed by a week.

[punked]

I like Layton and I don't doubt that a lot of other people do (even if they're too embarrassed to admit it out loud).

But given that it's an Angus Reid poll, I'm inclined to believe the numbers are a little skewed in hopes that people would believe that a vote for the NDP is no longer a waste of a vote.

As August said, the real winner in that situatin would be Harper.

You do know Angus Reid was the BEST pollster in the last election right?