Federal Election Polls

[Battletoads]

The NDP as the official opposition, a tantalizing prospect.

[Harry]

Leger Marketing

Canada

C - 38%, Up 1%

L - 26%, Flatlined

N - 22%, Up 4%

B -

G - 5%,down 3%

Quebec

B - 34%, Down 5%

N - 24%, Up 6%

C - 20%

L - 20%

BC

C - 37%

N - 28% (2nd place]

Jack's back! Leader's popularity lifts NDP

"Both ends of the country are turning to Jack," said Leger's Christian Bourque.

Asked who would make the best prime minister, the incumbent Stephen Harper was the answer by 37% of respondents - about the same as two weeks ago - but Layton is second most popular at 23%, a jump of three points in two weeks. All other leaders remained unchanged on this measure.

In Quebec, the NDP is now the most popular federalist party and Layton himself is now trusted by more voters than Duceppe.http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/17/18028046.html?sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4dabc95627fa9c86%2C0

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Nanos Research - April 17

Canada

C - 39.8%, Up 0.8%

L - 29.8%, Up 1.5%

N - 17.4%, Down 1.%

B - 8.6%, Down 1.%

G - 3.4%, Down 0.2%

U - 17.4%, Up 1%

Quebec

B - 35.8%, Down 2.9%

N - 23%, Up 4.5%

L - 18.3%, Up 0.6%

C - 17.8%, Down 0.9%

G - 2.9%, Down 0.3%

U - 20.4%, Up 3.4%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110417-BallotE.pdf

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[cybercoma]

I don't get Nanos. Why is he consistently way off from everyone else?

[cybercoma]

If Layton keeps bleeding the Bloc and Liberals like this, we may have an insane election outcome!

I don't put much stock in polls of popular consensus though. They don't match our electoral system, so often times the results vary on election night.

Edited April 18, 2011 by cybercoma

[Hydraboss]

I don't get Nanos. Why is he consistently way off from everyone else?

I know. It always looks so odd when his results are released, but isn't this the company that everyone says ends up being the most accurate over the last several elections? I also don't really care for the "margins of error" in these things. Up to 10+% in Kwebek? Doesn't that put all four major parties in a statistical dead heat?

[Harry]

I don't get Nanos. Why is he consistently way off from everyone else?

That's the question that many people are asking. Usually if a pollster has one poll that if quite different from the rest of the pack it is called an outlier - you know when they they describe the polling results are accurate 19 times out of 20, and the 20th poll is an outlier. This does not appear to be an outlier so good question indeed -what is going on with Nanos.

Does the new affiliation with Globe/CTV have something to do with it?

Is it methodology?

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Abacus

Canada

C - 37%

L - 29%

N - 20%

B - 8%

G - 5%

Ontario

C - 40

L - 37

N - 19

Quebec

B - 31%

L - 23%

n - 22%

C - 21%

http://abacusdata.ca/2011/04/18/tories-lead-by-8-as-the-campaign-enters-final-two-weeks/

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Duceppe is now worried that the NPD are going to take seats from them.

Gilles Duceppe invite les Québécois à «voter utile

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/18/01-4390961-gilles-duceppe-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-utile.php

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[CANADIEN]

Duceppe is now worried that the NPD are going to take seats from them.

Gilles Duceppe invite les Québécois à «voter utile

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/18/01-4390961-gilles-duceppe-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-utile.php

Unfortunately for him, this may be exactly what they will do.

[Harry]

Harris Decima

C - 36%, Down 4%

L - 28%, Flatlined

N - 19%, Up 4%

B - 8%

G - 5%

Tories slip, NDP up slightly in new poll

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hIzDIc5k75iauwqfS1OqseFhPR8A?docId=6602278

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Dave_ON]

Unfortunately for him, this may be exactly what they will do.

I'm finding this election to be rife with twists and turns. I'm quite surprised that the BLOC aren't doing better, traditionally they campaign quite well. I guess it's not over until May 2nd but it would appear I was a bit hasty in counting the NDP out. They've recovered quite nicely and are definitely on the upward trend.

[Harry]

Environics

C - 39%, Up 1%

L - 24%, Down 1%

N - 22%, Up 2%

B - 9%, Up 1%

G - 6%, Down 2%

http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=61

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

EKOS

C - 37%

L - 25%

N - 20%

Conservatives in lead, NDP gain steam

as campaign hits home stretch: EKOS

The Conservatives are hitting the home stretch with a 12-point lead over the Liberals, while the NDP enjoys a swell of national support, a new Ekos-iPolitics poll shows.

Pollster Frank Graves said the NDP is the only party that has improved its prospects during the campaign

---------------------------------------------

“Clearly the NDP surge is not some kind of ephemeral oscillation. It’s now clear from our poll and others that they’ve had a steady climb,” Graves said. “They started out the campaign at 14 points, they’re now at 20. That’s a big jump.”

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/18/conservatives-in-lead-ndp-gain-steam-as-campaign-hits-home-stretch/

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[sweet frog]

Interesting way to poll - Vote With Your IP ADDRESS It could potentially work really well if more participated. It would be good if it had a limited time frame. Current polling - well not everyone has a land line anymore, although I do have to say those polls are usually correct.

Edited April 19, 2011 by sweet frog

[punked]

Environics: CPC 39%, Libs 24%, NDP 22%

http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=61

[Smallc]

Environics: CPC 39%, Libs 24%, NDP 22%

http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=61

Wow.

[Evening Star]

For serious.

[punked]

Something is happening in Canada. What it is I don't know. I'll tell you one thing no matter what happens in the rest of the election the Liberal's leaders goose is cooked.

[blueblood]

Something is happening in Canada. What it is I don't know. I'll tell you one thing no matter what happens in the rest of the election the Liberal's leaders goose is cooked.

Jdobbin was talking about this a couple years back. It involved a situation with the liberal party. Its a sort of strategy by harper to polarize canada into 2 camps, the ndp and the tories and basically have alberta style government providing the ndp keeps its hard left line. The tories are poaching red tories from the liberals and the liberals are foolishly going after the ndp and giving them more credibility. Had the liberals ran on a more economy friendly platform it would be a dogfight bw the tories and liberals and essentially a toss up. Going to the left doesn't work for the liberals.

[cybercoma]

[conspiracy theory]This is just the Liberal Party's way of ensuring the Conservatives win a majority, so the backlash in the next election will bring the Liberals back to power again.[/conspiracy theory]

[capricorn]

Had the liberals ran on a more economy friendly platform it would be a dogfight bw the tories and liberals and essentially a toss up.

It would then have become a contest between leadership styles.

Going to the left doesn't work for the liberals.

This has happened incrementally and systematically since NDP Bob Rae joined the Liberals. Coincidence? I think not.

[August1991]

Jdobbin was talking about this a couple years back. It involved a situation with the liberal party. Its a sort of strategy by harper to polarize canada into 2 camps, the ndp and the tories and basically have alberta style government providing the ndp keeps its hard left line.

This is the only way that the Conservatives can win a majority - and Harper has set it up very well.

The survey of 2,400 Canadians finds 37.4 per cent would vote Conservative, 24.9 per cent Liberal, and 20 per cent NDP if an election were held today. Another 8.4 per cent plan to vote for the Green Party and 7.8 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.

"Clearly the NDP surge is not some kind of ephemeral oscillation. It's now clear from our poll and others that they've had a steady climb," Graves said. "They started out the campaign at 14 points, they're now at 20. That's a big jump."

Montreal Gazette

There are two features of the campaign polls that I have found remarkable.

First, the Liberals rose (to about) and now seem to have fallen back to mid-20s.

Second, the fall in the Bloc support. I have never seen the Bloc below 8% in cross Canada polls. In Quebec, they are now down to around 34% or so.

----

The current rise of the NDP (at Liberal and Bloc expense) will provide more vote splits favourable to the Tories. I don't think the fall of the Bloc will affect their seat total unless this tendency maintains itself - and I don't think it will. The Bloc is hitting its core support.

[Harry]

This was the polling company that was the most accurate in the 2008 GE. They are not suggesting a Harper majority, so apart from Tory spin such as the preceeding post, it just does not seem to be in the cards. The thing is, after the Throne speech, will we be looking at Ignatieff or Layton as PM?

Angus Reid

Canada

C - 36%, Down 2%

N - 25%, Up 4%

L - 25%, Down 2%

B - 9%

G - 5%

Quebec

B - 36%

N - 26%

L - 19%

C - 17%

Best Choice for Prime Minister

Canada

Harper - 28%

Layton - 27%

Ignatieff - 13%

Quebec

Layton - 38%

Harper - 14%

Ignatieff - 13%

Edited April 19, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

This was the polling company that was the most accurate in the 2008 GE. They are not suggesting a Harper majority, so apart from Tory spin such as the preceeding post, it just does not seem to be in the cards. The thing is, after the Throne speech, will we be looking at Ignatieff or Layton as PM?

Angus Reid

Canada

C - 36%, Down 2%

N - 25%, Up 4%

L - 25%, Down 2%

B - 9%

G - 5%

Quebec

B - 36%

N - 26%

L - 19%

C - 17%

Best Choice for Prime Minister

Canada

Harper - 28%

Layton - 27%

Ignatieff - 13%

Quebec

Layton - 38%

Harper - 14%

Ignatieff - 13%

We may very well be looking at Jack Layton as the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada, not the least thanks to Quebec.

Edited April 19, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07