Federal Election Polls

[Keepitsimple]

Bring on the "two stage process" AKA, the Coalition! If the makeup of Parliament is similar and the Liberals succeed in forming an "alternative" government, Canadians will be seething with rage and feel like dupes for not believing what Harper had been saying. Other than wasting time and a lot of money on yet another election, nothing could make an eventual landslide majority for the Conservatives more certain.

The real danger is that the Liberal-led "Cooperative" government will quickly understand this fact - that they will be annihilated in the next election - so they will make all sorts of deals to stay in power and hope that somehow, a miracle occurs.

It's all very hypothetical - but very plausible....and very, very scary. Hold onto your wallets.

[icman]

So you contend then that the 93% who will not vote bloc are voting for the bloc to be part of the government?

They didn't vote for cabinet membership of any kind, so what the voters want to happen in cabinet is only represented by their vote for MPs.

When I read your previous words, I heard "The Canadian People's votes showed that they didn't want the Bloc in Cabinet." And that ain't so. The people's votes say nothing about who they want or don't want in Cabinet. Cabinet choices are not on the ballot.

[The_Squid]

So you contend then that the 93% who will not vote bloc are voting for the bloc to be part of the government?

That is neither here nor there since a majority vote is not necessary to form government. By your logic, Harper should not be able to form government since over 60% of Canadians didn't vote for the Cons.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Bring on the "two stage process" AKA, the Coalition! If the makeup of Parliament is similar and the Liberals succeed in forming an "alternative" government, Canadians will be seething with rage and feel like dupes for not believing what Harper had been saying. Other than wasting time and a lot of money on yet another election, nothing could make an eventual landslide majority for the Conservatives more certain.

The real danger is that the Liberal-led "Cooperative" government will quickly understand this fact - that they will be annihilated in the next election - so they will make all sorts of deals to stay in power and hope that somehow, a miracle occurs.

It's all very hypothetical - but very plausible....and very, very scary. Hold onto your wallets.

The majority of Canadians want Harper out... that much has already been said in polling.

Cons need to stop confusing "plurality" with "majority"... it's quite irritating.

[M.Dancer]

They didn't vote for cabinet membership of any kind, so what the voters want to happen in cabinet is only represented by their vote for MPs.

Canadians vote for the party they want in government.

When I read your previous words, I heard "The Canadian People's votes showed that they didn't want the Bloc in Cabinet." And that ain't so.

I won't quibble..but I never said anything about cabinet, those are your words..I said government, ie, the parties in a coalition that make up the government. Obviously a coalition wold have NDP and Bloc members sitting and influencing the government...and again, the bloc would have undue influence over the process.

Now it may be true, the left leaning Liberals and NDP wil not complain about a chance to form a government with the separatists....but centrists canadains will.

[icman]

Canadians vote for the party they want in government.

I won't quibble..but I never said anything about cabinet, those are your words..I said government, ie, the parties in a coalition that make up the government. Obviously a coalition wold have NDP and Bloc members sitting and influencing the government...and again, the bloc would have undue influence over the process.

Now it may be true, the left leaning Liberals and NDP wil not complain about a chance to form a government with the separatists....but centrists canadains will.

In Canada, "Government" = "Cabinet". The rest is the House of Commons.

[Mr.Canada]

More bad news for Harper, but a great day for Layton

Nanos Leadership Index -

Big day for Layton, as he closes in on Harper by an amazing 35.1 points. There is now only a small difference of 16 points between them.

Harper - 92.8, Down 17.8

Layton - 76.8, Up 17.3

Ignatieff - 41.5, Down 7.6

Duceppe - 10.8, Down 4.7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110419-LeadershipE.pdf

This is great news indeed. The better Layton and the NDP does the worse it is for Ignatieff. This will cause many centre left vote splits letting the Tories march right up the middle and grab the seat. I hope Layton does well, it will only help the Tories.

The overall numbers mean almost nothing. The most important numbers are the regional ones. Those are the ones that matter. Tories are still doing well in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and BC. Their also holding their own in Qc.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[ToadBrother]

This is great news indeed. The better Layton and the NDP does the worse it is for Ignatieff. This will cause many centre left vote splits letting the Tories march right up the middle and grab the seat. I hope Layton does well, it will only help the Tories.

I was going to say "Don't hold your breath", but then I remembered it's you.

[Wild Bill]

So then my point remains. We should not abide by our constitution, it's not worth the paper it's printed on and we should basically be governed by the whim and ignorance of the masses? Does that about sum it up?

It's not about rule books, it's about the rule of law and good government. This is the foundation of our society, it's a sad state of affairs that 75% of Canadians don't know the Queen is our head of state. Apparently you don't see the danger in abandoning tradition, and the foundation of our political structure because of commonly held misconceptions. You don't appear to realize the amount of power that gives to men of dubious character such as Mr. Harper. It allowed him to hold on to power that was traditionally no longer his through the use of yet another "lawyer's trick" which you apparently have no issue with. Why was proroguing parliament to avoid a confidence motion, which Canadians are familiar with, an acceptable constitutional process? Does that pass the "sniff" test?

I see perhaps more clearly than YOU do, Dave! First off, who said anything about not abiding by the constitution? If a coalition of the losers is formed, I will not disagree with you that it would be constitutional. So what? Many voters may STILL not like it!

As for the rule of law and power held by men of dubious character, you have no grounds to lecture ME just because I don't dislike Harper quite as much as you do! I lived through the reign of Jean Chretien! I was one of the "disenfranchised conservatives" screwed by Mulroney! I voted for Trudeau because of the record of Mike Pearson, only to see him jerk the Liberal party much farther to the left so that I came to regret my vote.

I live near Caledonia, where Dalton McGuinty took the right of protection under the law away from an entire town! Almost 44,000 people were in fear for their safety yet when they phoned the OPP they were ignored!

We shouldn't expect to see voters rioting in the streets over a coalition. No doubt they will abide by the law. However, eventually there will be another election. At that time they may decide to punish those parties that formed the coalition.

What on earth is wrong with that? The losers have a constitutional right to form a coalition and those voters that are pissed off also have a constitutional right to forever hold a grudge against them every time they vote.

Everyone will have abided by the Constitution! Are you suggesting that it would be unconstitutional for any pissed off voter to vote against the coalition partners in subsequent elections?

What you are really saying Dave is that you hold YOUR opinions against Harper and think not only that ANYTHING to get rid of him is justified but that all other voters should not punish the parties that do it!

Give your head a shake, my friend! The world will not end if Harper retains power. Neither will it end if a coalition of the losers boots him out! Canada will go on. Still, voters WILL have their own opinions and they WILL choose who to support and who to punish! I'm surprised that you seem to take such exception to that idea.

Who knows? Perhaps you're worrying over nothing. A coalition might take power and from sea to shining sea, every voter will cheer and REWARD those parties involved!

I'm not saying at all that it couldn't happen. I'm saying that it would be Jack, Michael and Gilles who would be taking the risk. It would be up to them if they thought it would be worth it.

You and I have no skin in the game. We can sit back, pop open a beer and watch the entertainment!

[Mr.Canada]

I was going to say "Don't hold your breath", but then I remembered it's you.

You think Layton will be PM or something? Come on TB, give me a break. The Grits and the NDP are both fighting for the centre left vote. The Tories are the only party on the centre right and the only party doing anything for the centre vote.

Look at the regional breakdown polls. Those are the only ones that matter.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Many voters may STILL not like it!

Stop right there.

There are ALWAYS "Many voters" who do not like the outcome of any election.

That is one of the worst arguments I have ever seen.

[M.Dancer]

In Canada, "Government" = "Cabinet". The rest is the House of Commons.

No....it is not. Maybe in your mind it does, but that is not the case.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Canada

[Wild Bill]

You shouldn't try to coerce him or trick him. But force-educate him? We do that now. We force people to go to school from K-8, and highschool is only semi-optional. Yet we don't teach civics any more. Why?

By the way, I didn't say that Joe Voter was dispicable for deliberately mis-educating others, I said that the CPC was dispicable for that. What I said was that Joe Voter was not worthy of respect if they choose to be both ignorant and contemptuous of something simultaneously. The right to contempt is earned through aquisition of deep knowledge. It's karmicly poetic that improved knowledge of most things tends to reduce one's contempt for them.

People have the right to be ignorant! Also, they have every right to feel contempt!

They have no right to have their opinions automatically respected, of course. No one does! That includes you and me. We can only try to hold considered opinions that we can competently defend, in order to gain respect from others. Still, if someone wants to be ignorant who has the right to stop them?

As for force-educating or teaching civics, we've had threads about problems with our schools and their curricula before and will again. Even if we spruced up our schools, with lots of civics, maths and disciplines that encourage good reasoning it wouldn't matter. We would still have citizens that are ignorant, either through a lack of intelligence or a deliberate choice on their part.

Sadly, you can lead a horticulture but you can't make her think!

[Mr.Canada]

In Canada, "Government" = "Cabinet". The rest is the House of Commons.

Icman, that is totally incorrect. The entire government caucus is not in cabinet.

[ToadBrother]

You think Layton will be PM or something? Come on TB, give me a break. The Grits and the NDP are both fighting for the centre left vote. The Tories are the only party on the centre right and the only party doing anything for the centre vote.

Look at the regional breakdown polls. Those are the only ones that matter.

No, I don't think Layton will be PM. But I do not think we'll have a Tory majority. It looked more likely two weeks ago than now. The Tories will get another minority and then will have to figure out something very quickly to stave off being turfed over the Throne Speech.

[Mr.Canada]

No, I don't think Layton will be PM. But I do not think we'll have a Tory majority. It looked more likely two weeks ago than now. The Tories will get another minority and then will have to figure out something very quickly to stave off being turfed over the Throne Speech.

I guess time will tell. The Tories are going to gain seats in Atlantic Canada at least two, that's automatic. If Ontario goes their way they'll get a majority. It all depends. You could be right and so could I. Neither of us will know until May 2nd.

The Liberals will try to bring down the gov't at the first opportunity if it's anything else but a Tory majority. Maybe this will make Canadians happy, maybe not. Again, we'll see come May 2nd.

[Wild Bill]

Stop right there.

There are ALWAYS "Many voters" who do not like the outcome of any election.

That is one of the worst arguments I have ever seen.

Please don't pick one nit out of context!

My point should be obvious. The salient factor is HOW MANY is "MANY"! If you were a member of the "inner circle" of any political party, you would be VERY interested in just how many people might switch their vote away from you! Your party lives or dies on how many votes it will receive.

As I replied to Dave, voters are not likely to riot in the streets over a coalition. However, having one influence their vote NEXT election is surely worth considering! If "many" is a small number, then who cares? If it's a LARGE number then that's something else again!

[Harry]

This guy Layton is really flying now, and after reading this article perhaps Harper & Ignatieff would be better off not being so front and centre.

Layton the only leader whose performance helps party, poll says

Only NDP Leader Jack Layton has had an election campaign that’s really helping his party, a new poll suggests.

----

only Mr. Layton has really added appeal that helps his local candidates.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-the-only-leader-whose-performance-helps-party-poll-says/article1993275/

[Mr.Canada]

This guy Layton is really flying now, and after reading this article perhaps Harper & Ignatieff would be better off not being so front and centre.

Good, the better Layton does the more vote splits between NDP and Liberal. Go Jack Go!

[icman]

No....it is not. Maybe in your mind it does, but that is not the case.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Canada

I thought you'd make this mistake. The link you chose shows that the entire apparatus is considered Government - the House, the Senate, the SCC, etc.

In that case, the Bloc is already in government, so your efforts to prevent separatists from getting into goverment by preventing a coalition that includes the Bloc are meaningless.

[ToadBrother]

I thought you'd make this mistake. The link you chose shows that the entire apparatus is considered Government - the House, the Senate, the SCC, etc.

In that case, the Bloc is already in government, so your efforts to prevent separatists from getting into goverment by preventing a coalition that includes the Bloc are meaningless.

In the Westminster system, the Government refers to the Queen and Her Cabinet, well, technically, pretty much the entire Privy Council, but as a day-to-day thing, the Cabinet is the Government (as in "The Government was defeated" does not refer to Parliament, the Supreme Court and so forth). Frankly, that's why I like the old 19th century nomenclature of a Ministry, but unfortunately that long ago fell out of favor.

Then there's the government, as an expansive term including all the branches; executive, legislative and judicial. But that's not generally the terminology of day-to-day political use.

[icman]

Icman, that is totally incorrect. The entire government caucus is not in cabinet.

There is no such thing as "government caucus". There is caucus. Each party has a caucus, and it is all of the party members who hold seats in the legislature.

The CPC is not "the Government". The CPC caucus is not "the Government". The CPC is the party that FORMED "the Government" from the representatives within their caucus (and from outside too - the Minister of whatever that is a Senator, for example). The Government is Cabinet, which is all the Minsters. I suppose you could extend "the Government" beyond specifically the Cabinet by including the staff of the Ministries, but all the Ministries and their staff are led by the Ministers in Cabinet*.

The House is the House.

*Technically there is a small difference between the Ministry and Cabinet, but it is subtle, and ignored by the media, the common person, and most MPs who aren't Ministers.

[icman]

In the Westminster system, the Government refers to the Queen and Her Cabinet, well, technically, pretty much the entire Privy Council, but as a day-to-day thing, the Cabinet is the Government (as in "The Government was defeated" does not refer to Parliament, the Supreme Court and so forth). Frankly, that's why I like the old 19th century nomenclature of a Ministry, but unfortunately that long ago fell out of favor.

Then there's the government, as an expansive term including all the branches; executive, legislative and judicial. But that's not generally the terminology of day-to-day political use.

I believe you are quite correct, ToadBrother. I was just pointing out M. Dancer's debating error.

[Harry]

Good, the better Layton does the more vote splits between NDP and Liberal. Go Jack Go!

Be careful what you wish for.

[M.Dancer]

I thought you'd make this mistake. The link you chose shows that the entire apparatus is considered Government - the House, the Senate, the SCC, etc.

In that case, the Bloc is already in government, so your efforts to prevent separatists from getting into goverment by preventing a coalition that includes the Bloc are meaningless.

You thought I would make this mistake? I was correcting you. You said the government is the Cabinet. That is entirely false, it is far more than that.