Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

Heh, projection of 152 seats, 3 short of a majority. I wonder if the cons could effectively govern as if they have a majority if they are just a couple seats short like that. After all, it'd only take a couple opposition MPs being sick now and then.

But then again, it only would take a few sick Government MPs as well.

Generally speaking one wants a commanding majority. Even a small majority of four or five seats can still spell disaster for a government. Have a few MPs get sick, maybe a few resign for personal reasons, and all of sudden you cease to have a minority.

But I'm doubting the 152 seat figure anyways, but we'll know for sure on election day.

Edited April 15, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Harry]

Surprisingly the NDP are now within 3% of the Liberals

Popular Vote

C - 36%, Down 2%

L - 25%, Down 1%

N - 22%, Up 2%

The poll of voter preferences nationally for the four main parties and the Green Party showed the NDP was the only party to significantly gain ground since the results of the last Forum Research poll conducted April 5 and April 6, edging up to 22 per cent support from the 20 per cent in the earlier poll.

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/way_open_of_harper_majority_forum_research_nationwide_poll_04-15-2011

Edited April 15, 2011 by Harry

[Saipan]

Hopefully NDP get more liberal votes.

[Harry]

What is of significance here

1 NDP is now within 3% of the Liberals,

2 The NDP are now witihin 4% of the Bloc

3 The results of both debates which are quite accurate assessments of what took place:

Of Canadians who watched all or part of the English language debate, 39 per cent thought Mr. Harper performed the best, followed by Mr. Layton at 31 per cent, Mr. Ignatieff at 15 per cent and Mr. Duceppe at three per cent. In the French-language debate, 40 per cent found Mr. Duceppe performed the best, followed by Mr. Layton at 23 per cent, Mr. Harper at only 14 per cent and Mr. Ignatieff last at 12 per cent.

4 Both the Cons at 36%, and the Libs at 25%, are polling less than what they received last election

[M.Dancer]

2 The NDP are now witihin 4% of the Bloc

But not in ANY riding that counts

[Harry]

But not in ANY riding that counts

The important thing here is which was obvious to most viewers and confirmed by Forum is that overall Layton is the big debates winner, and it's the NDP that appears to have the growing momentum to possibly overtake the Bloc in Quebec, and to take seats from the Conservatives in the West. No wonder Harper is rushing to get out West today to protect his back yard.

Edited April 15, 2011 by Harry

[M.Dancer]

and it's the NDP that appears to have the growing momentum to possibly overtake the Bloc in Quebec, and to take seats from the Conservatives in the West. No wonder Harper is rushing to get out West today.

:lol:

Thankfully, I was not drinking coffee when I read that.

If the NDP get TWO seats in Quebec, colour me shocked!

[Harry]

:lol:

Thankfully, I was not drinking coffee when I read that.

If the NDP get TWO seats in Quebec, colour me shocked!

I think they will get a lot more than that. Yesterday Mulcair said that he was looking at 6-12 seats for the NPD. Myself I think the NPD will get between 3 and 10 seats in Quebec presently, but if Layton continues to increase his support there, it could be more seats for the NPD in Quebec.

[M.Dancer]

I think they will get a lot more than that. Yesterday Mulcair said that he was looking at 6-12 seats for the NPD. Myself I think the NPD will get between 3 and 10 seats in Quebec presently, but if Layton continues to increase his support there, it could be more seats for the NPD in Quebec.

Mulclair (le vendu Anglais) will count himslef lucky to hold his own seat. He is despised by the english....

[Harry]

Just look at some of the regionals for the NDP

Atlantic -

Quebec - 23%

Ontario - 21%, up 4%

Prairies - 24%, up 4%

Alberta

British Columbia

Regionally, the poll found the NDP up in all regions but Quebec, where it held steady at 23 per cent support. In Ontario, the NDP received support from 21 per cent of voters, up from 17 per cent in the last Forum poll. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where it might affect the outcome in up to two or three ridings, NDP support increased to 24 per cent from 20.

[Harry]

Mulclair (le vendu Anglais) will count himslef lucky to hold his own seat. He is despised by the english....

I guess you missed the CROP poll last weekend which showed Mulcair with a 20% lead over his closet rival in Outremont.

Go back to sleep.

Edited April 15, 2011 by Harry

[M.Dancer]

I guess you missed the CROP poll last weekend which showed Mulcair with a 20% lead over his closet rival in Outremont.

Go back to sleep.

Yeah....

The riding is still too close to call

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/p_24pq.php

[Harry]

Yeah....

The riding is still too close to call

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/p_24pq.php

Yup now there's a reliable source - election prediction run by Liberal Mr Chan.

[M.Dancer]

Yup now there's a reliable source - election prediction run by Liberal Mr Chan.

Yes it is reliable ...based on previous elections their accuracy is 0ver 90%

Federal Election - Canada - October 14, 2008

281/308

91.23%

Federal Election - Canada - 23rd January 2006

278/308

90.3%

But you keep thinking that the NDP will surpass the Bloc....I find it amusing

[Harry]

EKOS

C - 35.3%

L - 27.8%

N - 18.0%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/15/debates-hold-little-sway-on-voters-ekos-research/

[punked]

EKOS

C - 35.3%

L - 27.8%

N - 18.0%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/15/debates-hold-little-sway-on-voters-ekos-research/

You are reading the poll wrong it is a 4 day poll split into 2 2 night sections. It should read like this over the 4 days to smooth out the curve.

C-34.5

L-28.3

N-18.6

[Harry]

That EKOS polling that was released today is showing that the NPD has vaulted into 1st place in the Greater Montreal area.

EKOS

Metro Montreal

N - 30.1%

B - 22.6%

L - 25.7%

C - 14.2%

Quebec (la province)

B - 29.0%

N - 23.7%

L - 22.4%

C - 17.6%

Edited April 16, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

NDP still moving up, Little change in Tory and Grit support

Nik on the Numbers

Looking at the past seven days of tracking, support for both the Conservatives and the Liberals has generally stayed with the margin of error of the research. For the NDP, the past seven days has seen an incremental increase in support from a low of about 13% nationally to 19.2% as of Friday evening. Much of the NDP pick-up has been fuelled by increased support in Ontario and British Columbia.

Regionally the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, while the federalist parties in Quebec are tied for second behind the Bloc. The Tories lead in the Prairies and in British Columbia but their advantage over the Liberals and the NDP who are tied for second in BC has diminished.

Party policy continues to be cited as the top factor in influencing the vote by a majority of Canadians at 54.2%.

Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 14th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1020. *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1017 committed voters)

Conservative 38.8% (+0.1)

Liberal 28.8% (NC)

NDP 19.2% (+0.6)

Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (-0.5)

Green 3.4% (-0.3)

*Undecided 15.3% (+0.3)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 14th (n=1,200).

Traditionally Vote for Party 7.8% (-0.1)

Party Leader 23.2% (-0.2)

Party Policies 54.2% (+0.6)

Local Candidate 11.6% (NC)

Unsure 3.1% (-0.4)

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV News/Globe/Nanos Poll".

Edited April 16, 2011 by Harry

[Harry Hayfield]

Three Day Moving Average

Conservative 36.67%

Liberals 27.18%

New Democrats 19.53%

Bloc Quebecois 7.70%

Greens 7.10%

Others 1.82%

Con short by 18, Lib lead coalition maj 49

[Harry]

Three Day Moving Average

Conservative 36.67%

Liberals 27.18%

New Democrats 19.53%

Bloc Quebecois 7.70%

Greens 7.10%

Others 1.82%

Con short by 18, Lib lead coalition maj 49

What poll is this - links please. Thanks.

[Harry]

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper 105.4 +2.1

Layton 67.6 +7.2

Ignatieff 49.5 +7.0

May 9.8 -3.9

Duceppe 9.7 -9.3

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110415-LeadershipE.pdf

[Harry]

Many Canadians Annoyed with English Debate, But Reacted Well to Policy Ideas

Unique second-by-second analysis of exchanges and closing statements shows that the public is interested and happy to learn about policy ideas, and becomes annoyed and disturbed when the leaders attack each other.

Overall, the debate served to sustain Harper's position as a strong and decisive leader—a question where he has always held an advantage over his current three rivals—and allowed Layton to score points on some of his policy ideas, positioning himself as a viable alternative on vision and understanding what Canadians need. While Ignatieff managed to get high marks on foreign affairs and his desire to listen to other parties to get things done in Ottawa, he did not garner the backing of two-in-five Canadians on any of the traits tested at the end of the survey.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011.04.16_Debate_ENG.pdf

[Harry]

Nanos Research

C - 39%, Up 0.2%

L - 28.3%, Down 0.5%

N - 18.4%, Down 0.8%

B - 9.6%,

G - 3.6%, Up 0.2%

U 16.4%, Up 1.1%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110416-BallotE.pdf

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Recent Pollsters showing NPD in 2nd place in Quebec

Nanos - 19.5%

EKOS - 23.7%

Environics - 21%

Forum - 23%

Angus Reid - 24%

[Harry]

Angus Reid

Canada

C - 36%, Down 2%

N - 25%, Up 4%

L - 25%, Down 2%

B - 9%

G - 5%

Quebec

B - 36%

N - 26%

L - 19%

C - 17%

Best Choice for Prime Minister

Canada

Harper - 28%

Layton - 27%

Ignatieff - 13%

Quebec

Layton - 38%

Harper - 14%

Ignatieff - 13%

NPD on a roll // Le NPD sur une lancee

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/976225--ndp-moves-into-tie-with-liberals-poll?bn=1

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/17/01-4390790-le-npd-sur-une-lancee.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B42_acc-manchettes-dimanche_369233_accueil_POS1

Edited April 18, 2011 by Harry