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Posted

You can see the 308 weighting on the http://www.cbc.ca/polltracker website. I don't look at the signal, but I'd assume it weights differently.

Weighting is a different thing altogether from MoE. Aggregates will weigh the polls, but then the polls themselves are weighted in order to be representative of the population. That's why sometimes things go very wrong. When you put layer upon layer of weighting, one mistake can be exaggerated.

Posted

Weighting is a different thing altogether from MoE. Aggregates will weigh the polls, but then the polls themselves are weighted in order to be representative of the population. That's why sometimes things go very wrong. When you put layer upon layer of weighting, one mistake can be exaggerated.

Which is why the aggregators take into account margins of error and age of poll. It's not like they're just taking the polls and pasting them up and finding the average.

Posted

See, this is where I get confused. A current government leader, in your opinion, isn't qualified to run Canada (and I'm not saying if I agree or not), but someone who taught drama is?? I don't get it. How can anyone be so divided in their beliefs? Wall - no. Trudeau - yes. Weird.

He has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, delivers consistent balanced budgets, and sk has very low unemployment. He has to manage a caucus just like a pm and have opposition just like a pm. Also hes squeaky clean.

I didn't say he wasn't qualified - I said there was a big difference. Hey, go for it. He'll be fine.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Weighting is a different thing altogether from MoE.

Which is why the aggregators take into account margins of error and age of poll. It's not like they're just taking the polls and pasting them up and finding the average.

Yeah, that was kind of my point.

Posted

You can see the 308 weighting on the http://www.cbc.ca/polltracker website. I don't look at the signal, but I'd assume it weights differently.

The MoE is for the total sample size which is over a 3-day period. The results that are being reported are the same as all the other pollsters...

Thanks guys. I understand the different methods used to weight the polls themselves, but I was struggling with how 308/Signal were assigning MoE if, for example, on a given day they had 5 polls ranging from 300 respondents to 3000 respondents with mixed IVR/call/etc.

"racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST

(2010) (2015)
Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23

Posted

Yes, exactly.

In any case, Hydraboss posted the two aggregates and said they were way off from each other. They're not.

Signal 34.2L / 33.2C

308 35.1L / 31.0C

There's a 1.1 point difference in the LPC support and a 2.2 point difference in the CPC support. When most polls have an MoE of around 2.5-3.0%, those aggregates are actually very close to each other.

Posted

Yes, exactly.

In any case, Hydraboss posted the two aggregates and said they were way off from each other. They're not.

Signal 34.2L / 33.2C

308 35.1L / 31.0C

There's a 1.1 point difference in the LPC support and a 2.2 point difference in the CPC support. When most polls have an MoE of around 2.5-3.0%, those aggregates are actually very close to each other.

But both are working in riding level data where available. 308 tends to be a bit more liberal in riding projections, but even The Signal is factoring in the loss of Tory vote efficiency, which means that even marginal gains by the Liberal will translate into seats.

The real story here isn't the Liberals' growth, which I think is much less of a phantom than you do, but rather the collapse of the NDP vote. I don't think it's any great stretch to say that the falling NDP vote does little or nothing for the Tories, but does reward the Liberals.

I think the Liberals are on the way to a plurality, and probably not a marginal one. I still doubt a majority, but I'm not willing to bet any significant amount of money in either case.

Posted

See, this is where I get confused. A current government leader, in your opinion, isn't qualified to run Canada (and I'm not saying if I agree or not), but someone who taught drama is?? I don't get it. How can anyone be so divided in their beliefs? Wall - no. Trudeau - yes. Weird.

Yes, he has many positives going for him but one fatal flaw - he's unilingual. What do you anticipate Quebec's voter reaction to be? Zero seats? Ontario voters, in turn, would see danger to national unity.

Who knows, maybe his inability to speak an official language will awaken Quebec nationalism.

l

When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one.

...... Lord Lytton

Posted

Just because we need another set of projections

election-atlas.ca.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Yes, he has many positives going for him but one fatal flaw - he's unilingual. What do you anticipate Quebec's voter reaction to be? Zero seats? Ontario voters, in turn, would see danger to national unity.

Who knows, maybe his inability to speak an official language will awaken Quebec nationalism.

l

Rosetta stone anyone?

"Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary

"Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary

Economic Left/Right: 4.00

Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77

Posted

Hydraboss, on 13 Oct 2015 - 5:06 PM, said:snapback.png

See, this is where I get confused. A current government leader, in your opinion, isn't qualified to run Canada (and I'm not saying if I agree or not), but someone who taught drama is??

If you don't even know what Trudeau actually taught, how can you possibly make an accurate assessment of his abilities? Do you know, and just prefer to dismiss him by calling him a drama teacher? Or have you just never bothered to find out more?

Posted

Do you know, and just prefer to dismiss him by calling him a drama teacher?

it's typically accompanied by dripping condescension... for teachers... for the arts. They somehow manage to forget that Harper hasn't held a job outside of politics in his life (oh wait... Harper did deliver office mail!)... and no, being gifted a job with the conservative lobby group NCC doesn't count! :lol:

.

Posted (edited)

it's typically accompanied by dripping condescension... for teachers... for the arts.

.

Very true. They seem to worship money and that's about it. Edited by BC_chick

It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands

Posted (edited)

Liberals maintain a 7% Lead over conservatives at 36% based on Nanos released just now. :)

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (October 10th, 11th, and 13th, 2015) released October 14th, 2015 (6 am Eastern)

Liberals - 36.1%

conservatives - 29.2%

NDP - 24.5%

National Ballot – The latest Nanos tracking has the Liberals at 36.1% support followed by the Conservatives at 29.2%, the NDP at 24.5%, and the Greens at 4.3% nationally. • Regional Races – The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Ontario while the Conservatives lead in the Prairie provinces. Quebec is a tight race between the NDP and Liberals while the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied for first in British Columbia

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151013%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Edited by CITIZEN_2015
Posted (edited)

Don't count Harper out just yet. We could still get some paradigm shifting news over the next few days. The CPC has been quiet over the last week. Maybe they're mounting an offensive attack.

Edited by cybercoma
Posted

Don't count Harper out just yet. We could still get some paradigm shifting news over the next few days. The CPC has been quiet over the last week. Maybe they're mounting an offensive attack.

and here I thought 'Harper the GameShowHost - KaChing'... was that offensive attack!

Posted

That actually happened? I thought someone was joking when they told me that.

No, it actually happened. Their campaign is falling apart.

Posted

Don't count Harper out just yet. We could still get some paradigm shifting news over the next few days. The CPC has been quiet over the last week. Maybe they're mounting an offensive attack.

Yes, something could happen in the next five days to change the race, but I doubt it. I still don't see a Liberal majority, but it will be a Liberal government.

Posted

Don't count Harper out just yet. We could still get some paradigm shifting news over the next few days. The CPC has been quiet over the last week. Maybe they're mounting an offensive attack.

Nope, harper is feeling what dion had to go through in 2008. Its done.

"Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary

"Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary

Economic Left/Right: 4.00

Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77

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