Federal Election Polls

[blueblood]

Besides, Hillary has more than acquitted herself. Obama may be a rather weak-kneed president, but Clinton is a pretty good Secretary of State. If I were an American, I'd be wondering right now if the wrong Democrat got into the Oval Office.

Maybe she sees the writing on the wall about not wanting to continue past 2012

[Bryan]

Polls show Tories keep commanding lead

http://www.canada.com/news/Tory+support+stays+high+ethics+falling+flat+Poll/4514126/story.html

Conservatives 41%

Liberals 24%

NDP 19%

Bloc 10%.

Green 7%

The Forum Research poll also breaks it down by seat count, suggesting that if the election were held today, the Tories would surge from 143 seats to 162 seats, the Liberals would drop 17 seats to 61, the Bloc would rise from 44 to 51 and the NDP would be whittled from 36 seats to 34.

38% of voters think Mr. Harper would make the best prime minister, followed next by NDP leader Jack Layton at 18%. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is polling well below his party at just 15%.

[Harry]

Polls show Tories keep commanding lead

http://www.canada.com/news/Tory+support+stays+high+ethics+falling+flat+Poll/4514126/story.html

Conservatives 41%

Liberals 24%

NDP 19%

Bloc 10%.

Green 7%

Bryan,

You already posted this poll yesterday in post #151. I guess you must have really liked it.

I'm not familiar with Forum - what is their track record like?

[ToadBrother]

Bryan,

You already posted this poll yesterday in post #151. I guess you must have really liked it.

I'm not familiar with Forum - what is their track record like?

What's the difference. If the poll supports your favorite party, you declare them the most accurate in the history of the world. If they don't support your favorite party, you declare them biased, unreliable and in the pocket of the other parties.

[Bryan]

Bryan,

You already posted this poll yesterday in post #151. I guess you must have really liked it.

I'm not familiar with Forum - what is their track record like?

That's funny, it just showed up on Canada.com today. Two sites posting the same poll two different days. Oops. I forgot The Gazette was a Post paper.

I'm not familiar with them at all... I just saw what looked like a trend of 40+ for CPC.

Edited March 29, 2011 by Bryan

[Bryan]

What's the difference. If the poll supports your favorite party, you declare them the most accurate in the history of the world. If they don't support your favorite party, you declare them biased, unreliable and in the pocket of the other parties.

No. It's good to see all the trend lines.

[Harry]

You got it right TB.

[normanchateau]

Angus Reid was the most accurate in 2008.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2008.10.15_Election.pdf

Thanks for the link. It shows that Angus Reid was the most accurate, Ekos was the second most accurate and four pollsters tied for third place: Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Harris/Decima and Nanos.

Angus Reid has yet to publish a March poll of federal voting intentions.

[Bryan]

Thanks for the link. It shows that Angus Reid was the most accurate, Ekos was the second most accurate and four pollsters tied for third place: Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Harris/Decima and Nanos.

Angus Reid has yet to publish a March poll of federal voting intentions.

At the risk of invoking the wrath of Harry for reposting the same data I posted earlier (again ):

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index.php?showtopic=18384&view=findpost&p=644647

Angus Reid's latest poll, March 25/2011:

CPC - 39

LPC - 25

NDP - 19

BQ - 10

GRN - 7

http://www.thestar.c...ion-called?bn=1

[Harry]

Nanos Research

C - 38.4%

L - 28.7%

N - 19.6%

B - 9.1%

G - 4.1%

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110330/canada_federal_election_nanos_110330/20110330?s_name=election2011

[normanchateau]

"Liberals narrow gap to 6 points in campaign’s first possible shift" :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberals-narrow-gap-to-6-points-in-campaigns-first-possible-shift/article1964548/

Liberal rise is at the expense of the NDP, not CPC.

[BubberMiley]

"Liberals narrow gap to 6 points in campaign’s first possible shift" :

That makes sense. DId you hear Harper try to sing "Imagine"?

THe Liberals have got to find a way to get him to keep singing.

[M.Dancer]

That makes sense. DId you hear Harper try to sing "Imagine"?

THe Liberals have got to find a way to get him to keep singing.

??? Harper sings and NDP support evaporates? The Conservatives in this poll gained support...

Maybe Jack should sing...

[ToadBrother]

"Liberals narrow gap to 6 points in campaign’s first possible shift" :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberals-narrow-gap-to-6-points-in-campaigns-first-possible-shift/article1964548/

Liberal rise is at the expense of the NDP, not CPC.

Maybe left-of-centre voters are deciding it's better to have a stronger Liberal party going into the next Parliament.

We'll see, still early days.

[blueblood]

Maybe left-of-centre voters are deciding it's better to have a stronger Liberal party going into the next Parliament.

We'll see, still early days.

Looks like august's theory is shot full of holes. The coalition talk might have gave a boost to the tories, but left of centre people who don't like the idea of coalition interpreted iggys door analogy different than others and are throwing their eggs in the liberal basket.

I see the ndp getting squeezed. With both harper and iggy stating the election is between the two of them. Look for the polls to tighten up a bit until the debates. I think the ndp is taking a bath this time around

[ToadBrother]

Looks like august's theory is shot full of holes. The coalition talk might have gave a boost to the tories, but left of centre people who don't like the idea of coalition interpreted iggys door analogy different than others and are throwing their eggs in the liberal basket.

I think everyone blew the coalition wad early on. I suspect it's not the earth shattering concept that the Tories seem to think it is, and even if it is, Iggy has said he won't do it, so other than to call Iggy an out-and-out liar, a dangerous tactic, what else can be said?

I see the ndp getting squeezed. With both harper and iggy stating the election is between the two of them. Look for the polls to tighten up a bit until the debates. I think the ndp is taking a bath this time around

Like I said, there could be some strategic thinking on the left-of-centre side of the equation. If Iggy could recreate that mushy Liberal "we're what you want, whoever you are" he may be able to gain some substantial ground. It's worked for lots of other Liberal leaders down through the years. Chretien repeatedly ran on the Red Book, which he would apparently light on fire after each majority win.

[Evening Star]

The Liberals have basically unexpectedly adopted many of the strongest planks of the NDP platform and are campaigning effectively on them. Until the last couple of months, I didn't even see them as a left-of-centre party. Now, as a left-of-centre voter, it's hard to not agree with much of what they're saying.

[ToadBrother]

The Liberals have basically unexpectedly adopted many of the strongest planks of the NDP platform and are campaigning effectively on them. Until the last couple of months, I didn't even see them as a left-of-centre party. Now, as a left-of-centre voter, it's hard to not agree with much of what they're saying.

It's a good idea. In the 1990s the Liberals ran successful campaigns by stealing plays from the Reform play book. If Iggy can successfully reach out to NDP voters, it narrows the gap between him and the Tories substantially.

[M.Dancer]

It's a good idea. In the 1990s the Liberals ran successful campaigns by stealing plays from the Reform play book. If Iggy can successfully reach out to NDP voters, it narrows the gap between him and the Tories substantially.

Better yet, the vote splitting between the two would allow the Conservatives to take the middle and the majority.

[M.Dancer]

My preference is a CC majority with a very large Liberal opposition.....with the NDP sidelined into irrelevancy...

[ToadBrother]

Better yet, the vote splitting between the two would allow the Conservatives to take the middle and the majority.

If the trend continues, the point is that there won't be vote splitting. Left-of-centre voters, strategically or otherwise, will vote Liberal. The problem for the Tories may very well be that they're hitting a ceiling at 38-39%, which makes a majority unlikely.

[Evening Star]

It's a good idea. In the 1990s the Liberals ran successful campaigns by stealing plays from the Reform play book. If Iggy can successfully reach out to NDP voters, it narrows the gap between him and the Tories substantially.

It's a brilliant strategy, don't get me wrong!

[wyly]

despite what many claimed would have little or no effect the jump in liberal popularity is tied to the tuition offer, it's the most talked about election promise accross canada right now...it effects kids and their parents, millions of them in total and it puts cash in their pockets immediately... unlike the harper promise of income splitting that will benefit the wealthy and do nothing for the lower incomes that struggle with post secondary education costs, "maybe, in 4-5 yrs if nothing else comes up, and if we get re-elected one more time, maybe we'll deliver income splitting...maybe"...

[ToadBrother]

despite what many claimed would have little or no effect the jump in liberal popularity is tied to the tuition offer, it's the most talked about election promise accross canada right now...it effects kids and their parents, millions of them in total and it puts cash in their pockets immediately... unlike the harper promise of income splitting that will benefit the wealthy and do nothing for the lower incomes that struggle with post secondary education costs, "maybe, in 4-5 yrs if nothing else comes up, and if we get re-elected one more time, maybe we'll deliver income splitting...maybe"...

A delightful plus for the Liberals, unless someone ponders on how many times they raised the Red Book up.

[punked]

The Liberals have basically unexpectedly adopted many of the strongest planks of the NDP platform and are campaigning effectively on them. Until the last couple of months, I didn't even see them as a left-of-centre party. Now, as a left-of-centre voter, it's hard to not agree with much of what they're saying.

And as a left of center voter if you give then your vote you will feel pretty stupid in a year just go through their red book promises of 93 when we left of center voters gave them the chance to make good on those promises. It was 120 pages of well thought out lies.