Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

We are voting for the party. Leaders are just a cog in the machine and are quite expendable.

Apparently not, or the Tories would have expended Stephen Harper a year and a half ago.

[blueblood]

Apparently not, or the Tories would have expended Stephen Harper a year and a half ago.

Unfortunately they felt that cog was still good.

[ReeferMadness]

We are voting for the party. Leaders are just a cog in the machine and are quite expendable.

Huh. And yet your expendable cog branded his entire government on his name ("The Harper Government"), centralized power in the PMO to and unprecedented level and required the caucus to let his PMO know ahead of time if they wished to speak at caucus meetings. As cogs go, it seems like he kind of took over the machine.

[ToadBrother]

Unfortunately they felt that cog was still good.

No, the problem is that the cog held the machinery of the party in his grasp. That's part of what Michael Chong's sadly emasculated reform bill aimed to do, remove some of the controls a party leader has.

And I don't blame just Harper for this one. This one dates back to the electoral changes made in the early 1970s under Pierre Trudeau.

[blueblood]

Huh. And yet your expendable cog branded his entire government on his name ("The Harper Government"), centralized power in the PMO to and unprecedented level and required the caucus to let his PMO know ahead of time if they wished to speak at caucus meetings. As cogs go, it seems like he kind of took over the machine.

That was his selling point to the powers that be. Harper. Party brass ultimately calls the shots. How do you think trudeau rose to prominence so fast? Thats loc party brass.

All politicians answer to party brass. Tory party brass for almost 10 yrs gave harper their blessing to clean up the wingnuts and put in place discipline to show a united right. That worked for a decade and the tory party is pretty much cleaned up in that sense of the word. I can assure you a number of party brass were in the pmo.

Its like the ceo of a company. Hes given a mandate to provide a vision of where things go but if the board of directors disapprove, thats when the ceo is done. The same thing happened to chretien. Politics is a very cut throat world.

You have to remember that people are only as powerful as others let them. As toadbrother says, with the tory fortunes going the way they are, its very likely that tory brass is going to take some of that power away from harper.

[ReeferMadness]

Its like the ceo of a company. Hes given a mandate to provide a vision of where things go but if the board of directors disapprove, thats when the ceo is done. The same thing happened to chretien. Politics is a very cut throat world.

Yup. I keep hearing Tory supporters compare government to a company. Like a temporary dictatorship by a highly inflated ego is the way things are supposed to be.

You do realize that in theory, the PM is supposed to be accountable to parliament.

[blueblood]

No, the problem is that the cog held the machinery of the party in his grasp. That's part of what Michael Chong's sadly emasculated reform bill aimed to do, remove some of the controls a party leader has.

And I don't blame just Harper for this one. This one dates back to the electoral changes made in the early 1970s under Pierre Trudeau.

If harper was getting consistently better election results from 04 to 11, of course party brass is going to allow him power as harpers vision was working at the time. There have been numerous mutinies in the reform movement since the 90s. Thats how these things go. To think harper has significant power over party brass is a bit of a stretch.

[blueblood]

Yup. I keep hearing Tory supporters compare government to a company. Like a temporary dictatorship by a highly inflated ego is the way things are supposed to be.

You do realize that in theory, the PM is supposed to be accountable to parliament.

Yup and in theory of the pm doesnt have the confidence of the mps in his party he wont be pm for long

I would prefer the pm to be picked by mps instead of those ridiculous party leadership conventions.

Edited October 16, 2015 by blueblood

[webc5]

How trustworthy is Nanos?

[ToadBrother]

If harper was getting consistently better election results from 04 to 11, of course party brass is going to allow him power as harpers vision was working at the time. There have been numerous mutinies in the reform movement since the 90s. Thats how these things go. To think harper has significant power over party brass is a bit of a stretch.

And yet I think Harper does have significant power over the party brass. A leader who has held the reigns for a long time (Harper has been Conservative leader for eleven years now) holds a great deal of sway even over the higher echelons of hte party machine, and it can become very hard for even the senior party leadership to dislodge them. In fact, I can't think of any situation in which the party brass have ever removed a leader. They might be able to work to undermine a leader so that the leader falls short in a leadership review, but under modern Canadian party mechanics, a leadership review is still the membership's prerogative.

I'd love it if Canada went to the system the UK Tories use. The Tories in the UK have never had actual leadership conventions per se. Rank and file party members do not elect the leader, the Tory caucus does. It's a system that makes the leader a lot more accountable to the MPs, and prevents the UK Tories from suffering embarrassments like Labour's election of Jeremy Corbyn. It's also the reason the UK Tories have such wonderful backbench groups as the 1922 Committee, a group of more right-leaning Conservatives that wield significant power, to the point where they have, on occasion, even openly challenged the Tory frontbench on whipped votes.

There's a dynamism to the UK political system which is so thoroughly lacking in Canada. We have the form of a Westminster parliament, but none of the spirit.

[ToadBrother]

How trustworthy is Nanos?

On a daily basis, not much. I think on longer trend lines of several days, as trustworthy as any of them.

[blueblood]

And yet I think Harper does have significant power over the party brass. A leader who has held the reigns for a long time (Harper has been Conservative leader for eleven years now) holds a great deal of sway even over the higher echelons of hte party machine, and it can become very hard for even the senior party leadership to dislodge them. In fact, I can't think of any situation in which the party brass have ever removed a leader. They might be able to work to undermine a leader so that the leader falls short in a leadership review, but under modern Canadian party mechanics, a leadership review is still the membership's prerogative.

I'd love it if Canada went to the system the UK Tories use. The Tories in the UK have never had actual leadership conventions per se. Rank and file party members do not elect the leader, the Tory caucus does. It's a system that makes the leader a lot more accountable to the MPs, and prevents the UK Tories from suffering embarrassments like Labour's election of Jeremy Corbyn. It's also the reason the UK Tories have such wonderful backbench groups as the 1922 Committee, a group of more right-leaning Conservatives that wield significant power, to the point where they have, on occasion, even openly challenged the Tory frontbench on whipped votes.

There's a dynamism to the UK political system which is so thoroughly lacking in Canada. We have the form of a Westminster parliament, but none of the spirit.

Well none of us are privy to what goes on behind closed doors, but i can imagine in chretiens case party brass basically told him time was up. Harper may have had a lot of chips on the table as far as tory brass goes as far as party direction (steady improving election results), but the pendulum has shifted and harper no longer has as much chips. I take it youve played poker before. On a side note its why i love the game of thrones tv show as it is essentially about power and getting said power.

I was just addressing reefermadness when i said i prefer that mps elect pms and not those tacky leadership conventions that party hacks essentially pick pms.

[angrypenguin]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_16_2015.pdf

Go to page 5. Take some time, and think about what that means.

[CITIZEN_2015]

How trustworthy is Nanos?

Nanos didn't do bad in 2011. I think they were second best with 1.4% error (best was Angus Reid which predicted with 1% error). Ekos was the worst and I don't give much weight to what they release.

Edited October 16, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[eyeball]

Not worth the risk.

It's more likely that a stinky transition of power would cause a call for another "stable majority government". Ugh.

In which case the next campaign and election should by rights be about the issues surrounding power in our governance and if reforming how we elect our representatives can address those issues. I think it's worth the risk if that is the result. It seems a little more realistic a possibility to me after submitting the following question to the committee soliciting questions for the All Candidates Meeting in my town last week.

There has been a marked increase in voter interest in strategic voting

this election as evidenced by the number of websites and even voter

apps that organize information and coordinate voters actions to help

achieve their strategic goals. Alberni / Courtenay is a swing riding

where strategic voting could be a factor in the outcome of this

election.

What do candidates make of this increased interest and the

determination of growing numbers of voters to vote as strategically

and as effectively as possible?

I thought it was pretty cool the question was left for the end of the meeting after the candidates had addressed the other ten issues the committee solicited questions on. It was standing room only at the meeting and the local paper devoted a third of their report on the meeting to the candidate's mixed responses to it.

The unfortunate Green candidate wished he hadn't heard of strategic voting the NDP candidate sounded genuinely remorseful about having to support it. These two along with the Liberal candidate supported electoral reforms and the Conservative candidate praised the system we have while pointing out that it's only when it's Conservatives benefit from vote splitting that Liberal's complain about FPTP. In light if the question committee's timing of the question along with the paper's report about it in their story and that it was likely the last thing on the minds of people who were at the meeting I'm left with the feeling I've managed to have an impact, maybe even a strategic one on this election. It feels good.

I'll be looking to the committee to solicit voters questions on reforms during the next round of candidate's meetings. Let's hope for a good long stint of co-operative governance by a progressive government so voters get used to the idea of collaborative more representative government instead of a fractious oppositional one. That's got to be worth the risk.

[eyeball]

I think as much as the Tories are no longer under his spell, he weeks ago gave up.

Under the force withering now he is.

[Topaz]

Well, Harper must believe the polls because just like I said the SHREDDERS have move in on the PMO and all the secrets are about to be shredded.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/the-governments-contracted-shredder-company-was-at-the-prime#.gon65WVvV

[Vancouver King]

Well, Harper must believe the polls because just like I said the SHREDDERS have move in on the PMO and all the secrets are about to be shredded.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/the-governments-contracted-shredder-company-was-at-the-prime#.gon65WVvV

Could there be a more telling way of saying the end is near?

[CITIZEN_2015]

I think that liberals and their supporters overestimate their support and that is DANGEROUS. Angus Reid poll indicates a quite likely conservative minority. It says Liberals are only 4% leading and last time they underestimated the conservative support by 3 percentage point and they were the best pollster. So if the gap is only one percent then it is a conservative government on Tuesday because of vote efficiency. I certainly hope that does not happen. Also these people are using their wealth and influence to mobilize voters to take them to vote. Who know may be they give them free ride and free lunch too if they vote conservative!!!!.

Edited October 17, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[dialamah]

I think that liberals and their supporters overestimate their support and that is DANGEROUS.

That is a worry I have too.

On the other hand, perhaps the "shy Tory" effect here is that they're too shy to admit they'll vote Progressive?

Anyway, I've voted and I've been personally responsible for at least 3 other Liberal votes, and possibly 1 or 2 more. We don't talk about politics at work, but I'm aware of at least 4 other people there who'll vote Liberal. And, saw an instagram today, a young woman who took a selfie at the Advance polls, with #stopHarper. Vancouver Sun got a lot of negative feed back for their endorsing of Harper. In the riding I scrutineered at the advance poll last week, 40% of the voters who came out were considered Liberal supporters, though there's no way of knowing who they actually voted for. So I have hope.

[Smallc]

I think that liberals and their supporters overestimate their support and that is DANGEROUS. Angus Reid poll indicates a quite likely conservative minority.

When you aggregate all the polls, it seems to be less close than that.

[Bryan]

Well, Harper must believe the polls because just like I said the SHREDDERS have move in on the PMO and all the secrets are about to be shredded.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/the-governments-contracted-shredder-company-was-at-the-prime#.gon65WVvV

From the article you linked to:

Privy Council Office, the non-partisan branch of government that supports the PMO, is claiming responsibility for the trucks. Its offices are located mostly in the building behind Langevin Block.

“Movement of materiel in and out of the Langevin and Blackburn buildings is part of routine traffic in government buildings,” spokesperson Raymond Rivet wrote in an email. “This activity by PCO has nothing to do with the upcoming election.”

Rivet said “it was all routine work.” He said there’s been activity around the building because Public Works and Government Services Canada is replacing a generator.

“Other shipments received included standard office supplies such as paper, file boxes, plastic floor mats (to protect carpets from chair castors). We did have one moving truck (Simplex) moving office furniture to another PCO building,” Rivet wrote.

[Smallc]

This has nothing to do with the election. It's normal for most government departments, if not all.

[Vancouver King]

I think that liberals and their supporters overestimate their support and that is DANGEROUS. Angus Reid poll indicates a quite likely conservative minority. It says Liberals are only 4% leading and last time they underestimated the conservative support by 3 percentage point and they were the best pollster. So if the gap is only one percent then it is a conservative government on Tuesday because of vote efficiency. I certainly hope that does not happen. Also these people are using their wealth and influence to mobilize voters to take them to vote. Who know may be they give them free ride and free lunch too if they vote conservative!!!!.

In the off chance Conservatives have a plurality any attempt to form a gov't will be met with opposition parties non-confidence. The only way Harper can be guaranteed a fifth term is to win a majority and that is absolutely not in the works.

[ReeferMadness]

In the off chance Conservatives have a plurality any attempt to form a gov't will be met with opposition parties non-confidence. The only way Harper can be guaranteed a fifth term is to win a majority and that is absolutely not in the works.

And what happened in 2008?