Federal Election Polls

[Topaz]

The saying "behind every great man is a woman"......it looks like Elizabeth May will be that woman for either party but not for the Tories, May wants him gone too.

[ToadBrother]

So within the margin of error.

More like "I pick the poll that most supports my desired outcome..."

[Derek 2.0]

More like "I pick the poll that most supports my desired outcome..."

Or actually like "I post the poll released the Monday morning after the most recent leaders debate on a political forum, in a thread on election polling".

[Derek 2.0]

So within the margin of error.

What is their margin of error? I do know, their last polls prior to the last several elections, saw them with results 2-4% lower than the actual outcome.

[ToadBrother]

Or actually like "I post the poll released the Monday morning after the most recent leaders debate on a political forum, in a thread on election polling".

What is their margin of error? I do know, their last polls prior to the last several elections, saw them with results 2-4% lower than the actual outcome.

You seem to have an advanced numerology going on here, not me.

[Derek 2.0]

You seem to have an advanced numerology going on here, not me.

How so? Have you yourself not pontificated and postulated on the tea leaves found within the countless polls from within this thread?

[ToadBrother]

How so? Have you yourself not pontificated and postulated on the tea leaves found within the countless polls from within this thread?

I'm not invoking magical polls invoking an election considerably dissimilar to this one. I would find a Tory majority quite surprising at this point, but that's at this point. Maybe they'll pull through. I'm not that invested in the result, because frankly I don't see how things will be that different regardless of who "wins", whatever that may actually mean. For me, the pleasure of this election is in the possibilities; will we have a short-lived minority, will the third party agree to prop up a minority, will two parties get an equal number of seats, and if one of them is the incumbent, will they try to govern? If the plurality is very small, will whoever governs manage to survive the Speech from the Throne? If they are defeated after a delay that extends into the New Year, will the GG call new elections, or ask someone else to form a government?

For a fan of the Westminster system, this is an interesting election.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The predictions are not going to be very good with the parties hovering in a statistical tie. Just keep that in mind. Many predictions had the NDP leading in seats, but I'm not confident in that. It sounds like a lot of seats are going to flip blue to red in the Atlantic Provinces and the 905 from recent polling. This suggests that the LPC will win a minority government despite the tie.

Is there a better guide?

Speaking of Atlantic Canada, there's one province in there that will probably not feature any Conservative winners.

[cybercoma]

Is there a better guide?

Speaking of Atlantic Canada, there's one province in there that will probably not feature any Conservative winners.

Nope. It's the best prediction we have.

With the loss of a number of high-profile incumbents, the Tories are in a lot of trouble in Nova Scotia. It's likely they'll only get a single seat there and be shut out of both PE and NL. NB will likely elect a few, but I'm in Fredericton and I'm almost certain Keith Ashfield, former Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, will lose his seat to Liberal candidate Matt DeCourcey.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Nope. It's the best prediction we have.

With the loss of a number of high-profile incumbents, the Tories are in a lot of trouble in Nova Scotia. It's likely they'll only get a single seat there and be shut out of both PE and NL. NB will likely elect a few, but I'm in Fredericton and I'm almost certain Keith Ashfield, former Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, will lose his seat to Liberal candidate Matt DeCourcey.

In my NL riding, the only (dim) hope for the Conservative candidate is a huge NDP performance splitting the anti-Tory vote.

[jbg]

The Tories might get wiped out in the 416 but will remain competitive in the 905 (except Mississauga). However I honestly didn't understand how they won 9 seats in Toronto in the first place.

Vote splitting between the NDP and the Grits? Tha'ts my uninformed Yank guess.

Edited September 23, 2015 by jbg

[Boges]

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

BOOMFACE!

[Canada_First]

It's only one poll. But it's from a pollster who regularly polls the Grits higher so it's interesting for sure.

I'd like to see a few more polls before being too happy.

[cybercoma]

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

BOOMFACE!

With an outlier like that, you might want to wait until more polls come in before dropping the "BOOMFACE!" Especially considering Nanos overnight numbers don't corroborate this. There's a 5% chance any given poll will fall outside the margin of error.

[Keepitsimple]

A Mainstreet poll for Ontario shows some strength for the Conservatives - with the NDP falling behind......and it appears that Trudeau is starting to pay the price for having Kathleen Wynne as a cheerleader....

In Ontario, “the people who agree with Harper, they don’t want Harper-lite. They want full-strength Harper. For the people who don’t want to see Harper re-elected, the NDP is pushing those people to the Liberals.” Meanwhile, he said, it appears the Conservatives are showing some resiliency, thanks in part to how their candidates are campaigning door-to-door against some policies of Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

The unpopularity of some of her policies – the sale of Hydro Ontario, a revised sex education curriculum, and a labour dispute with teachers, for instance – could be giving a lift to federal Conservatives and harming Wynne’s federal political cousins, said Maggi.

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,610 Ontarians on Sept. 21. A mixture of landlines and cellphones was surveyed using interactive voice response (IVR) technology.

[Vancouver King]

This Ekos result was predictable. Even Nanos with it's "delayed" methodology was hinting at increased Conservative strength (currently 3 points up on the NDP).

The second half of this campaign has been marked by the absence of negative news and issues for Tories relative to the earlier Duffy days.. Did anyone think the negative barrage would continue into the final weeks?

The winner in terms of most seats has been decided, all that remains is whether those seats constitute a majority.

[ToadBrother]

This Ekos result was predictable. Even Nanos with it's "delayed" methodology was hinting at increased Conservative strength (currently 3 points up on the NDP).

The second half of this campaign has been marked by the absence of negative news and issues for Tories relative to the earlier Duffy days.. Did anyone think the negative barrage would continue into the final weeks?

The winner in terms of most seats has been decided, all that remains is whether those seats constitute a majority.

I don't buy that at all. The polls are still orbiting 30%, but the Liberals and Tories are both showing some upward mobility. It's the NDP that likely has to be concerned right now.

[Derek 2.0]

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

BOOMFACE!

Indeed, likewise the FORUM poll earlier this week.........I'd expect further Tory gains in the polls next week, not only with tonight's debate results, but the Labour Party Liberal party and Scottish National Party's NDP's promises to not support a Tory minority Government, , regardless of size, ipso facto, given voters a choice of either Tory Majority or a Labour Liberal minority supported by the SNP .NDP........Now PM Cameron Harper only has to campaign against one "divided party"..........

Economic news that refutes the Opposition's slogans doesn't hurt either......

[cybercoma]

The NDP is losing support in Quebec. That's why they're falling behind.

[Derek 2.0]

The NDP is losing support in Quebec. That's why they're falling behind.

Maybe (don't they still have a comfortable lead though?), and the Tories are gaining support in Ontario and British Columbia.

I expect, like this year's British election, another key factor will be both a Liberal and NDP implosion.......As much as many people dislike Harper, there are many soft Liberal and NDP supporters that dislike each other, which could translate into soft NDP supporters in Quebec returning to the Bloc and in BC/The West, similar NDP supporters returning to the Tories (and even the Greens). With the Liberals, in Ontario, soft supporters that fear the NDP going back to the Tories..........

As is often said, there was ~60% of Canadians that didn't support the Tories in the last election, but also ~70% and nearly 80% of Canadians that didn't support the NDP and Liberals..........And now Canadians are faced with a Government of two parties, that a near equal percentage don't support......Both the Liberals and NDP's hatred of Harper and lust for power will be their undoing.

[ToadBrother]

Maybe (don't they still have a comfortable lead though?), and the Tories are gaining support in Ontario and British Columbia.

I expect, like this year's British election, another key factor will be both a Liberal and NDP implosion.......As much as many people dislike Harper, there are many soft Liberal and NDP supporters that dislike each other, which could translate into soft NDP supporters in Quebec returning to the Bloc and in BC/The West, similar NDP supporters returning to the Tories (and even the Greens). With the Liberals, in Ontario, soft supporters that fear the NDP going back to the Tories..........

As is often said, there was ~60% of Canadians that didn't support the Tories in the last election, but also ~70% and nearly 80% of Canadians that didn't support the NDP and Liberals..........And now Canadians are faced with a Government of two parties, that a near equal percentage don't support......Both the Liberals and NDP's hatred of Harper and lust for power will be their undoing.

Have you ever pondered the possibility that you might be wrong? YOu seem to glom on to polls that support your clear preference, and ignore general trends that show the Liberals also moving upward.

[Vancouver King]

The NDP is losing support in Quebec. That's why they're falling behind.

The NDP is now clearly behind the Conservatives in BC. The added Tory seats here (10?) will likely out number Conservative gains around Quebec City.

[Derek 2.0]

Have you ever pondered the possibility that you might be wrong? YOu seem to glom on to polls that support your clear preference, and ignore general trends that show the Liberals also moving upward.

Oh its possible that I could be wrong, but I don't doubt the slightest that I'm not..........have you pondered that I could be right though?

[Derek 2.0]

The NDP is now clearly behind the Conservatives in BC. The added Tory seats here (10?) will likely out number Conservative gains around Quebec City.

Interesting, have their been any public BC only polls lately? I have several family members involved with the Greens here on Vancouver Island, and they claim its a three-way Tory/NDP/Green race (Vancouver Island only).

[CITIZEN_2015]

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

This will go at the heart of credibility of EKOS poll if proven wrong in coming days. This is the only poll suggesting a big Tory lead as all other polls suggest still a tight race orbiting around 30% with Nanos overnight poll suggesting a Liberal lead of one percent over conservatives at 31.5 percent

According to Nano's overnight poll, the Liberal Party was the first choice of 31.5 per cent of respondents, followed by the NDP at 30.8 per cent, and the Conservatives at 30.5 per cent.

Edited September 24, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015