North Korea Attacks

[dre]

The same thing Canada would do if Dawson Creek was shelled....shoot back.

If the enemy had Toronto in range of the lagest artillery battery in the world you can be sure there would be carefull diliberation before any "shooting back" happens.

[bush_cheney2004]

If the enemy had Toronto in range of the lagest artillery battery in the world you can be sure there would be carefull diliberation before any "shooting back" happens.

Not if they were already at war...welcome to Korea.

[dre]

Not if they were already at war...welcome to Korea.

Yeah. Welcome to Korea... where youve seen numerious skirmishes without a major escalation for the exact reason I mentioned.

[bush_cheney2004]

Yeah. Welcome to Korea... where youve seen numerious skirmishes without a major escalation for the exact reason I mentioned.

They were all just "misunderstandings". South Korea should just hire you as a consultant.

[dre]

They were all just "misunderstandings". South Korea should just hire you as a consultant.

Why? All Id tell them is the same thing all their other consultants including the US military tells them.

[GostHacked]

Well this can get all out of hand very quickly.

Possibilities :

US/SK will throw a preemptive nuke at NK. Because they are going to quickly get run over. Apparently there is 1 million NK standing army, and the SK numbers are much much smaller. From what I am reading the US has about 25,000 troops stationed in SK. You are either gonna kill the NK soldiers en-mass with a nuke, or let them run you over.

[blueblood]

Well this can get all out of hand very quickly.

Possibilities :

US/SK will throw a preemptive nuke at NK. Because they are going to quickly get run over. Apparently there is 1 million NK standing army, and the SK numbers are much much smaller. From what I am reading the US has about 25,000 troops stationed in SK. You are either gonna kill the NK soldiers en-mass with a nuke, or let them run you over.

Ask Saddam about how having one of the largest standing armies in the world fared against the US juggernaut...

[GostHacked]

Ask Saddam about how having one of the largest standing armies in the world fared against the US juggernaut...

Unlike Saddam, the North Koreans DO have the bomb and a willing army. Iraq never had the chance to start up the nuclear program after the first gulf war. And then a couple decades of sanctions killed their military abilities.

The first war was not an easy one, the second gulf war was much easier .... that will not be the case with North Korea.

[nicky10013]

Ask Saddam about how having one of the largest standing armies in the world fared against the US juggernaut...

The Iraqi back was broken by airpower as they had no where to hide. Air power will still be effective in North Korea, but not nearly as much. The entire DMZ are lined with nuclear proof bunkers.

[ToadBrother]

The Iraqi back was broken by airpower as they had no where to hide. Air power will still be effective in North Korea, but not nearly as much. The entire DMZ are lined with nuclear proof bunkers.

I doubt very much North Korea is planning on winning any kind of conventional war. Clearly, with a major power like the US, that would be impossible. It's intentions are clear; to make any attempt to invade or topple the regime through force so extraordinarily devastating for South Korea, and possibly by extension, for allies like Japan, that the US won't seriously consider that strategy.

[Wild Bill]

Well this can get all out of hand very quickly.

Possibilities :

US/SK will throw a preemptive nuke at NK. Because they are going to quickly get run over. Apparently there is 1 million NK standing army, and the SK numbers are much much smaller. From what I am reading the US has about 25,000 troops stationed in SK. You are either gonna kill the NK soldiers en-mass with a nuke, or let them run you over.

Possible, but not likely. The West does have tactical nukes and if they were truly about to be overrun the temptation would be strong to use them.

However, they have a BEJEEZUS number of mines across the DMZ! They may have a few less troops in total but the US always has the advantage of more modern technology. Look what happened when they last went into Iraq. All the CNN talking heads kept shouting "Watch out for Saddam's Presidential Guard! They're tough as nails!"

The US blew through nearly a thousand Iraqi tanks like they weren't even there! It's true that the Iragis were highly trained and quite brave. It's true that their tanks were reasonably modern. Yet they had nothing to compete with the American night vision and satellite observation, plugged into a communications net that let not only every officer but nearly every grunt know instantly, 'real-time' what was going on. The much-feared Presidential Guard were constantly caught with their pants down. It was like the US attacked a force of Canadians. Brave, highly trained soldiers but their country only paid for older, second-best equipment, while having no industry of their own to make leading edge stuff.

One also has to credit just how much a couple of modern aircraft carriers can quickly add to the mix.

So General Dong might be able to get 7 million soldiers to goose-step down to the DMZ but there's no way he has anything like the technology of the US with which to outfit them.

The real worry is that General Dong may not care! He may be counting on his enemy not having the stomach for a high casualty war. Old tech or not, sheer numbers would mean a LOT of South Koreans, US soldiers and civilians would be hurt and killed. El Dongo doesn't really care about that if it means his adversaries will give him what he wants to sue for peace. He may have the impression that if push comes to shove Obama will wuss out. A few million dead to become ruler of the entire Korean peninsula might be a good price to him! He would instantly have twice the amount of food available to bribe the rest of his people.

You can bet that General Dong has a bunker deep and strong enough to withstand any cruise missile sent to take HIM out!

I hate to say it but South Korea is in a damned either way situation. They may have to decide just how much they are willing to pay to stay free. It's guaranteed to be a terrible price, even if they win. However, if they win the chances of another El Dongo coming along in these modern times is pretty slim. Especially when even China doesn't really want him or another like him.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Wild Bill

[dre]

Ask Saddam about how having one of the largest standing armies in the world fared against the US juggernaut...

Well that example doesnt really work. Most of Saddams army deserted him then ran and hid. And for whatever reason they buried their airforce in the sand prior to the invasion

And keep something else in mind. The US is STILL in Iraq 10 years later, and its cost them trillions of dollars. And theyre still fighting the Taliban 10 years later as well. Im not sure that really paints western militaries as juggernauts or utter buffoons that achieved less success per resources committed in the entire history of armed conflict.

I actually think thats a big part of the reason North Korea is being so bold. Iraq and Afghanistan are unmitigated disasters if you subject either of them to any sort of rational cost benefit analysis. And theres a growing consensus in the US that they just cannot keep wasting that much borrowed money.

The omnipotent super power narrative has been replaced by the view of the US has this massive dysfunctional beaurocracy that cant even win EASY fights without spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money, and takes ten years to win even when the other side surrenders.

Edited November 26, 2010 by dre

[wulf42]

I don't think war will result from the latest Artillery shelling however i do believe if North Korea does anything else from this point on then the S Korean Government will be forced to retaliate. S Koreans have had enough of Kimmy and the fat boy and it appears they finally realize that passiveness and appeasement does not work... history repeats itself, the world tried to avoid WW2 by appeasing Hitler because nobody wanted a bloody messy war so they just kept giving in to the dictator (sound familiar) but we all know how that ended.

Edited November 27, 2010 by wulf42

[bush_cheney2004]

....The omnipotent super power narrative has been replaced by the view of the US has this massive dysfunctional beaurocracy that cant even win EASY fights without spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money, and takes ten years to win even when the other side surrenders.

This is a contradiction, as the US became the lone superpower by doing exactly what you claim to be "dysfunctional".

[Oleg Bach]

China is a lot like a badly behaved and sadistic judge that releases a mad man ....to harrass and weaken the world...China could shut down N Korea with a phone call.

[xul]

China is still trying to figure out how to repatriate Taiwan.

Maybe China would do what BC2004 always claims: copying American strategy by which the US has been trying to scare Kim and disarm his A-bombs.

Kim vs Uncle Sams

Edited November 28, 2010 by xul

[GostHacked]

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/28/south.korea.shell.fired/index.html?iref=allsearch

I may have called it that SK fired a shell by accident or in the wrong direction.

[M.Dancer]

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/28/south.korea.shell.fired/index.html?iref=allsearch

I may have called it that SK fired a shell by accident or in the wrong direction.

The shell was fired by a unit located near Munsan, South Korea, and landed on the southern side of the military demarcation line, the South Korean officer said.

"The South notified North Korea that this was accidental firing through a statement issued by the chief delegate of inter-Korean general level talks," the officer said. He added, "the military is looking into the cause of the accident."

North Korea has not responded to the incident, according to the South Korean media officer

.

Umm...yeah and whatever...

[nicky10013]

Possible, but not likely. The West does have tactical nukes and if they were truly about to be overrun the temptation would be strong to use them.

However, they have a BEJEEZUS number of mines across the DMZ! They may have a few less troops in total but the US always has the advantage of more modern technology. Look what happened when they last went into Iraq. All the CNN talking heads kept shouting "Watch out for Saddam's Presidential Guard! They're tough as nails!"

The US blew through nearly a thousand Iraqi tanks like they weren't even there! It's true that the Iragis were highly trained and quite brave. It's true that their tanks were reasonably modern. Yet they had nothing to compete with the American night vision and satellite observation, plugged into a communications net that let not only every officer but nearly every grunt know instantly, 'real-time' what was going on. The much-feared Presidential Guard were constantly caught with their pants down. It was like the US attacked a force of Canadians. Brave, highly trained soldiers but their country only paid for older, second-best equipment, while having no industry of their own to make leading edge stuff.

One also has to credit just how much a couple of modern aircraft carriers can quickly add to the mix.

So General Dong might be able to get 7 million soldiers to goose-step down to the DMZ but there's no way he has anything like the technology of the US with which to outfit them.

The real worry is that General Dong may not care! He may be counting on his enemy not having the stomach for a high casualty war. Old tech or not, sheer numbers would mean a LOT of South Koreans, US soldiers and civilians would be hurt and killed. El Dongo doesn't really care about that if it means his adversaries will give him what he wants to sue for peace. He may have the impression that if push comes to shove Obama will wuss out. A few million dead to become ruler of the entire Korean peninsula might be a good price to him! He would instantly have twice the amount of food available to bribe the rest of his people.

You can bet that General Dong has a bunker deep and strong enough to withstand any cruise missile sent to take HIM out!

I hate to say it but South Korea is in a damned either way situation. They may have to decide just how much they are willing to pay to stay free. It's guaranteed to be a terrible price, even if they win. However, if they win the chances of another El Dongo coming along in these modern times is pretty slim. Especially when even China doesn't really want him or another like him.

US tanks and planes can't hit what they can't see. The north has dug nuclear proof bunkers across the DMZ.

[bush_cheney2004]

US tanks and planes can't hit what they can't see. The north has dug nuclear proof bunkers across the DMZ.

Yes they can....with a GBU-28 penetrator munition.

[nicky10013]

Yes they can....with a GBU-28 penetrator munition.

Hmmm

GBU-28 - 30m (100ft) of Earth - 6m (20ft) feet of concrete

Pyongyang Metro - 110m (360ft)

[DogOnPorch]

Some interesting North Korean propaganda leaflets and other items from the 1950-53 conflict.

http://www.psywarrior.com/NKoreaH.html

[blueblood]

US tanks and planes can't hit what they can't see. The north has dug nuclear proof bunkers across the DMZ.

As General George S. Patton says "Defensive structures are a monument to the stupidity of man."

If a war breaks out, what are they going to do in those nuclear proof bunkers deep underground? The US has bombs that can take out an entire armour column with next to no collateral damage (has been deployed once in Iraq). I don't think the NK troops can attack out of those bunkers, I don't see the bunkers gaining them ground. A naval invasion would make quick work of those bunkers in regards that they won't be attacked, the rest of the country will!

How long would someone survive in a bunker, a year? Two? Five?

[wyly]

I doubt very much North Korea is planning on winning any kind of conventional war. Clearly, with a major power like the US, that would be impossible. It's intentions are clear; to make any attempt to invade or topple the regime through force so extraordinarily devastating for South Korea, and possibly by extension, for allies like Japan, that the US won't seriously consider that strategy.

I doubt the US is planning on winning any kind of conventional war...the us doesn't have the manpower to take on an entrenched, prepared and motivated enemy of this size in mountainous terrain that possess both nukes and chemical weapons and give the impression they're not afraid to use them...

[bjre]

I doubt the US is planning on winning any kind of conventional war...the us doesn't have the manpower to take on an entrenched, prepared and motivated enemy of this size in mountainous terrain that possess both nukes and chemical weapons and give the impression they're not afraid to use them...

US has many evil reasons to launch a new war:

1. it helps the president's sponsor -- weapon maker sell weapons.

2. it helps the president win something especially he can not make any other thing some progress. Even the result will not good to world or US itself, the evil culture of US will think its good.

3. someone want to slow down Asia's fast development so that US looks not so fail in economy.