Canadian Political Polls

[capricorn]

These sudden flips in the polls over seemingly inconsequential issues will make for a interesting election campaign. The final results will likely be determined entirely by how parties conduct their campaigns and the media reaction to it.

At present, the voting public doesn't have any specific policies in front of them from any of the parties. There have been hints here and there but nothing specific yet. As Bricker alludes, there's a general malaise out there.

"It's not because people have a really big issue with proroguing the House," Mr. Bricker said. "It's really the [political] games, that's what gets under people's skin. That's what you are seeing the effects of [in the poll]."

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2479681

It could be that Canadians in general are getting antsy about not yet knowing in which direction Harper wants to take us, especially with regard to the economy. The Conservatives will be first out the gate with a Throne Speech and a budget on March 4. When the budget rolls around, they still won't have any policies in the window to differentiate themselves from the Conservatives, except for some snippets we heard from Ignatieff. The Liberals will have their "thinkers" conference afterward on March 26. The Liberals could make up policy on the fly in response to the budget but that would not be well received by their grassroots as they expect to have a say at their upcoming conference.

What option does Ignatieff have? The budget will probably pass and a non-confidence vote will have to wait for another opportunity.

If I was to advise all political parties, I would say disregard the polls, especially as a tool to predict the outcome of the next election.

[Smallc]

I could be wrong but I don't see Haiti aid as benefit the cons...aid is what we expect them to do, had they not responded it would've hurt them...

Maybe, but never have we responded so fast with so much (or been able to for that matter).

[nicky10013]

New ekos poll has the Liberals on top by half a percentage point.

http://muskokaliblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/new-ekos-poll-shows-liberals-leading.

Liberals - 31.6

Conservatives - 31.1

NDP - 14.6

Green - 11.0

Bloc - 9.1

Other - 2.6

Edited January 28, 2010 by nicky10013

[Smallc]

Now, imagine in Ignatieff actually did something impressive.

[LastViking]

This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

[William Ashley]

This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

Liberals were ontop of conservatives 32 to 31 in the last ekos poll.

[Shakeyhands]

This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

I'm thinking Trendlines isn't so accurate. They gave the Lierals the same sort of lead leading in to the last election. I'd take their numbers with a grain of salt.

[madmax]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/756909--tories-support-eroding-poll-shows

CPC 33

LPC 29

NDP 19

BQ 10

GPC 7

[madmax]

Here is the breakdown of the poll above.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2010.01.28_Politics_CAN.pdf

Voting Intention: Con. 33%, Lib. 29%, NDP

19%, BQ 10%, Grn. 7%.

Approval Rating: Harper 27%, Layton

27%, Ignatieff 17%.

Momentum: Layton -5, Ignatieff -20,

Harper -34.

61% disagree with the government’s

decision to prorogue Parliament

57% believe a federal election in 2010 is

“very likely” or “moderately likely”

[Jerry J. Fortin]

This kind of thing reminds me how much I hate the fact that in Canada elections are not scheduled. Political situations such as polls, or international events, and even domestic issues can trigger an election. This represents a large expenditure of tax dollars to benefit some political system and political people. Anybody else out there thinking the same way?

[nicky10013]

This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-86 lead over the Liberal Party.

Considering the fact that last week before even this poll came out, the globe's riding projection had the Liberals on top by 3 seats, something tells me this projection isn't too accurate.

[eyeball]

This kind of thing reminds me how much I hate the fact that in Canada elections are not scheduled. Political situations such as polls, or international events, and even domestic issues can trigger an election. This represents a large expenditure of tax dollars to benefit some political system and political people. Anybody else out there thinking the same way?

Any sort of change might be good for a temporary thrill but, a

fixed election date is a rather minuscule adjustment. I guess even a tiny baby step is better than none.

Perhaps my great grandchildren will see some democratic reforms in their lifetimes but they probably shouldn't hold their breath.

[nicky10013]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/will-canadians-want-to-throw-the-bums-out-in-a-spring-election/article1447446/

Average Canadian's aversion to an election dropping significantly. "Throw the bums out" sentimentality on the rise big time.

[ToadBrother]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/will-canadians-want-to-throw-the-bums-out-in-a-spring-election/article1447446/

Average Canadian's aversion to an election dropping significantly. "Throw the bums out" sentimentality on the rise big time.

If Argus's blaming of all those nasty opposition types for the anger over the prorogation is any indication, I suspect that a lot of Tories are getting worried, and already coming up with excuses for why they lost the election. Typical partisanship, never blame the leadership, always blame someone else.

[LastViking]

I'm thinking Trendlines isn't so accurate. They gave the Lierals the same sort of lead leading in to the last election. I'd take their numbers with a grain of salt.

Well, that just isn't true. Lower down the page a chart for the 2008 election shows TrendLines was predicting the Conservatives with 128 seats in the days before the writ was dropped and 131 on the eve of voting day: 2008 campaign chart

[nicky10013]

Well, that just isn't true. Lower down the page a chart for the 2008 election shows TrendLines was predicting the Conservatives with 128 seats in the days before the writ was dropped and 131 on the eve of voting day: 2008 campaign chart

Either way, unless there was a typo on the actual page, there's something terribly wrong with the numbers. Every poll in Canada is in pretty much agreement that the Conservatives have lost anywhere from 7-15 points in the period of the last month/month and a half. The Conservatives have 145 seats currently. Trendline's projection has them gaining three despite the loss of popular support. Did anyone not pick that up?

[Alta4ever]

Either way, unless there was a typo on the actual page, there's something terribly wrong with the numbers. Every poll in Canada is in pretty much agreement that the Conservatives have lost anywhere from 7-15 points in the period of the last month/month and a half. The Conservatives have 145 seats currently. Trendline's projection has them gaining three despite the loss of popular support. Did anyone not pick that up?

Or is they know something that you don`t?

[ToadBrother]

Either way, unless there was a typo on the actual page, there's something terribly wrong with the numbers. Every poll in Canada is in pretty much agreement that the Conservatives have lost anywhere from 7-15 points in the period of the last month/month and a half. The Conservatives have 145 seats currently. Trendline's projection has them gaining three despite the loss of popular support. Did anyone not pick that up?

The obvious answer is that Trendline is not looking at the latest polls. While the polls all seem to be here and there, it's pretty clear that if the Liberals and Tories aren't in a statistical dead heat, they're damned close. There's no way, if the polls have any meaning at all, that an election held right now would produce that kind of disparity.

I think there's some rather artful "reinterpretation" going on here. I suspect Tory HQ is actually getting frightened that Iggy might be able to push this one over the top, so now they're going to be trying to frighten Liberal supporters into thinking that an election could very well end with another substantial defeat for the Liberals. And Tory HQ might be right, the situation is clearly pretty fluid, and polls today don't mean that much for an election that couldn't be earlier than April (assuming the Opposition pulls the plug after the Throne Speech).

I still don't see a spring election as a likely outcome. If there were a major bump for either the Tories or the Liberals in February (and the Tories are betting the Olympics will make everyone forget about prorogation for a while, though the Haiti disaster certainly hasn't translated into the salvation the Tories were hoping for), maybe it could happen. But I'm thinking it would have to be a pretty good bump, coupled with a slide in the polls for the other guy. A statistical dead heat or even a 2 or 3 point difference is not, I think, going to be enough for anyone to want to trigger an election.

[ToadBrother]

Or is they know something that you don`t?

And what would that be? Some magical poll no one is releasing? I don't buy it. The seat counts are out to lunch to every poll released in the last three or four weeks.

[nicky10013]

And what would that be? Some magical poll no one is releasing? I don't buy it. The seat counts are out to lunch to every poll released in the last three or four weeks.

Pretty much. Ekos' seat projection released with its newest poll today has it 119-112 for the Liberals. I'd even say it's closer than that. Could be the other way around. No way it's 143-86.

[nicky10013]

A statistical dead heat or even a 2 or 3 point difference is not, I think, going to be enough for anyone to want to trigger an election.

Depends on the what the polls are indicating in March. The Liberals have actually used this week pretty well. They've released some pretty solid policy proposals. If they can keep this going they can gain real momentum. Even if they're 3 points up, I wouldn't rule an election out whatsoever. What's more stupid? Allowing the Conservatives back in after they've taken such a massive hit, or now when the electorate is is so upset. Harper certainly has the ability to step in it again, but to the point where he pisses off so many people is a really big gamble. The Liberals only have to be in it to go to the polls, it's how they campaign that will determine who wins. If they keep it up, the win no matter how far behind they are. If they're terrible, they lose. Massive changes in poll numbers after the writ is dropped isn't at all uncommon. This may be the best shot the Liberals, indeed, the entire opposition has.

[normanchateau]

New ekos poll has the Liberals on top by half a percentage point.

Liberals - 31.6

Conservatives - 31.1

NDP - 14.6

Green - 11.0

Bloc - 9.1

Other - 2.6

Here are the results of the same latest Ekos poll among those with a university education:

Liberals - 38.9

Conservatives - 29.7

NDP - 13.7

Green - 8.8

Bloc - 7.3

Other - 1.6

And among women:

Liberals - 32.3

Conservatives - 27.4

NDP - 17.4

Green - 10.5

Bloc - 10.0

Other - 2.3

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_january_28.pdf

[Wild Bill]

And what would that be? Some magical poll no one is releasing? I don't buy it. The seat counts are out to lunch to every poll released in the last three or four weeks.

My internet server is Sympatico. They have a survey everyday on their home page. Today they asked "If an election were held today which party would you vote for?"

The figures so far are :

51% Conservatives

25% Liberal

9% NDP

It's only 9:30 am here and they show 12,654 votes counted.

Now I know this is an unscientific poll. I'm just confused as to how it can be so different from EKOS and the others!

Does Sympatico only serve Conservative areas of the country? These figures sure don't jive with the official word for Ontario having the CPC and LPC running neck and neck.

EKOS only used 3 thousand people. Where the hell does Sympatico get their 12,654 and (climbing!) folks and where do they live?

[ironstone]

It's really not hard to understand the political landscape of Alberta.

"Give me my money or I'm creating a party even more radical than the last. PS, the east is stealing all our money."

Remember,much of Canada does very nicely thanks to all the cash flowing out of right wing,hard working Alberta.We owe them big time.

[ironstone]

With all of the interest in polls,why are there fewer people in this country turning out to vote?The future doesn't look promising,not very many young people seem interested on voting day.