Canadian Political Polls

[ToadBrother]

When Flannagan stabs you in the back, you know you have made a disasterous decision.

Well, Flannagan wasn't saying the prorogation itself was bad, he seemed to think the Opposition was destroying the military. At least from what I could tell, he just thought Harper's justifications were the shits and he should have just said "We're doing this to stop the Opposition from looking deeper." While I sympathize with those who do feel that the prisoner abuse scandal has been hyped up, I cannot imagine it ever being an adequate reason to basically shut down Parliament.

Still, the fact remains that Harper has alienated a lot of people. Flannagan turning on him suggests that the Tories may have trouble with some element of their base. I wonder if it also means he may have trouble in his caucus. The Tories put on a good game of "follow the Dear Leader", but there were rumblings after the bungled party financing scheme nearly cost the Tories the government in 2008, so maybe shutting down Parliament also means Harper doesn't have to walk into a caucus meeting in a flack jacket.

[ToadBrother]

I never said it wasn't disastrous drop did I? What it does show is that the none of the above option is growing, since the other parties aren't moving their support forward at the conservative parties expense. It shows that the other parties aren't offering something that the growing segment of apathetic voters want either.

No you didn't say it wasn't disastrous, but you still seem to be trying to shift something on to the Opposition. This is not the Opposition's game to win, Alta4ever, this is the Tories' game to lose. Slavish obedience to Harper and his reckless stunts isn't delivering them a majority, it's threatening their capacity to even achieve another minority. Either Harper needs to find a new strategy, or the Tories need to find themselves a new leader. MacKay was the natural choice, but the whole Afghan prisoner abuse issue has wounded him, so it's quite possible that the Tories are now stuck back where they were in the spring and summer of last year, with a motivated Opposition who will basically be telling Flaherty what to do.

The whole thing is beginning to look like a merry-go-round, but this circular strategy relies basically on Iggy continuing to shoot himself in the foot. Just how many times do the Tories want to chance that? It's a damned poor strategy.

If you were Harper, would you want to go into the next caucus meeting with the justification "Don't worry, the Opposition can't possibly capitalize on my blunders..." Is Harper even capable of admitting he blundered?

Edited January 14, 2010 by ToadBrother

[Alta4ever]

No you didn't say it wasn't disastrous, but you still seem to be trying to shift something on to the Opposition. This is not the Opposition's game to win, Alta4ever, this is the Tories' game to lose. Slavish obedience to Harper and his reckless stunts isn't delivering them a majority, it's threatening their capacity to even achieve another minority. Either Harper needs to find a new strategy, or the Tories need to find themselves a new leader. MacKay was the natural choice, but the whole Afghan prisoner abuse issue has wounded him, so it's quite possible that the Tories are now stuck back where they were in the spring and summer of last year, with a motivated Opposition who will basically be telling Flaherty what to do.

The whole thing is beginning to look like a merry-go-round, but this circular strategy relies basically on Iggy continuing to shoot himself in the foot. Just how many times do the Tories want to chance that? It's a damned poor strategy.

If you were Harper, would you want to go into the next caucus meeting with the justification "Don't worry, the Opposition can't possibly capitalize on my blunders..." Is Harper even capable of admitting he blundered?

You really don't think this is the oppositions game to win, that is the whole point of opposition offer something different that you think the electorate wants in hopes of gaining the government in the next election. Harper has stumbled, the opposition should be capitalizing on it, they aren't. So that says to me there is a going number of disaffected voters that don't want what any of the parties are offering.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Alta4ever

[ToadBrother]

You really din't think this is the oppositions game to win, that is the whole point of opposition offer something different that you think the electorate wants in hopes of gaining the government in the next election. Harper has stumbled, the opposition should be capitalizing on it, they aren't. So that says to me their is a going number of disaffected voters that don't want what any of the parties are offering.

First of all, there hasn't really been all that much time to capitalize on it. The Opposition is at a disadvantage in that they can't just simply reopen Parliament. At least the Liberals will be back on the 25th. Now either everyone will have stopped caring in a couple of weeks, in which case it will have been a futile gesture, or people will care, and the Liberals can build up support.

Alternatively Harper could admit he made a mistake. Heck, use Page's report as a reason to get Parliament back. Certainly if I was your average Tory, I wouldn't want to be watching Olympic speedskating realizing that Iggy and Co. were getting photo ops on Parliament Hill looking busy.

[Alta4ever]

First of all, there hasn't really been all that much time to capitalize on it. The Opposition is at a disadvantage in that they can't just simply reopen Parliament.

Its been long enough to see a drop in the conservative numbers, but that 9 point drop didn't translate into the same gain for the opposition parties.

[ToadBrother]

Its been long enough to see a drop in the conservative numbers, but that 9 point drop didn't translate into the same gain for the opposition parties.

Is this what they call lowering expectations. It starts with "Ya, we're gonna win. Ya ya!", then it sort of migrates to "We don't need to call an election. Harper's gonna stack the Senate up real nice, and then the Opposition won't be able to screw us. Ya ya!", and now it's "Well, we're screwed, but the Opposition isn't grabbing our support. Ya ya!"

What it means is 1. there ain't gonna be a spring election, 2. the Opposition now has the Tories by the balls in Parliament and 3. Harper may have (if Iggy can pull it off) given his biggest competitor a chance to look all Prime Ministerial for cheap.

Now maybe point 3 will end up meaningless. I don't have a lot of faith in Iggy's ability to turn this to his advantage. But points 1 and 2 are clear. It means Harper has basically wiped out six months of building support. It also means, with each time he screws up like this, he damages his prestige in his own party. It is indeed Harper's game to lose.

[nicky10013]

You really don't think this is the oppositions game to win, that is the whole point of opposition offer something different that you think the electorate wants in hopes of gaining the government in the next election. Harper has stumbled, the opposition should be capitalizing on it, they aren't. So that says to me there is a going number of disaffected voters that don't want what any of the parties are offering.

You don't know that. Nobody knows anything until it happens. I think what this poll means is that I don't know how I'll be voting for the Conservativs sure have lost my vote. You're holding onto the hope that just because the 10% that has been lost hasn't gone to the opposition, it'll magically flow back to the Conservatives next week. It could. I just don't see that happening.

[nicky10013]

Conservative's on Razor's Edge of Losing Government - New EKOS Poll has Tories down to 30%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/conservatives-on-razors-edge-of-losing-government/article1430715/

[wyly]

It means Harper has basically wiped out six months of building support. It also means, with each time he screws up like this, he damages his prestige in his own party. It is indeed Harper's game to lose.

what it means is the teflon is starting to wear of the Don(harper), the annoyance with his secrecy and bully style is starting to wear thin with the public...Iggy has little to do nothing but sit back and let the harper's screw ups unravel the cons...

[ToadBrother]

what it means is the teflon is starting to wear of the Don(harper), the annoyance with his secrecy and bully style is starting to wear thin with the public...Iggy has little to do nothing but sit back and let the harper's screw ups unravel the cons...

Well, we'll see what it means. But what it does mean, in the short term is every Tory flunky here is going to be patiently explaining how blowing a 10+ point lead over your nearest rival in just four months and ending up nearly in a statistical dead heat with them is somehow a sign of Opposition failings and the glorious successes of Stephen Harper. This is where it gets fun, because the last thing an ideologue can ever admit, no matter how much it's smashing them in the head, is that the individual or group they've invested so much intellectual and emotional energy into is faltering. For their own mental health, they have to start compartmentalizing, otherwise they end up like those old Star Trek computers that Captain Kirk drove nuts "Harper best... but Harper f**ked up badly... If Harper best, how can Harper fail... Does not Compute... Does not Compute..." Now just picture smoke coming out of fellotraveller, Argus and Alta4ever's ears, and you've got a pretty good idea of where they're at right now.

But let's be clear about one thing, as much as the Tory spindoctors and their little helpers on the ground may be patiently trying to explain how night is day and wet is dry to us, I suspect the Tory caucus ain't nearly so pleased.

Edited January 14, 2010 by ToadBrother

[wyly]

But let's be clear about one thing, as much as the Tory spindoctors and their little helpers on the ground may be patiently trying to explain how night is day and wet is dry to us, I suspect the Tory caucus ain't nearly so pleased.

which is why I doubt Harper will survive as leader should the cons go through another election with a minority...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

But let's be clear about one thing, as much as the Tory spindoctors and their little helpers on the ground may be patiently trying to explain how night is day and wet is dry to us, I suspect the Tory caucus ain't nearly so pleased.

That is an understatement. Then again when you are a member of a Harper government, what are you going to say?

[ToadBrother]

That is an understatement. Then again when you are a member of a Harper government, what are you going to say?

In public? You go to great lengths to explain how Harper is the savior of the Haitians, how he's a brilliant political animal and this precipitous drop in the polls is part of his master plan to achieve a majority, that Parliament really doesn't need to sit around when there's much more important figure skating... er economic planning to do, how Iggy has funny eyebrows and has no chance ever of being PM with such a fierce opponent as Dear Leader to keep him at bay.

In private? You phone up Stephen, but more than likely end up talking to the ring of advisors, spin doctors and sycophants the man surrounds himself with, and seeing as you won't be talking to him, you pray that polling numbers do go up, because otherwise you're stuck with bitching at the next caucus meeting.

Edited January 15, 2010 by ToadBrother

[Jerry J. Fortin]

In public? You go to great lengths to explain how Harper is the savior of the Haitians, how he's a brilliant political animal and this precipitous drop in the polls is part of his master plan to achieve a majority, that Parliament really doesn't need to sit around when there's much more important figure skating... er economic planning to do, how Iggy has funny eyebrows and has no chance ever of being PM with such a fierce opponent as Dear Leader to keep him at bay.

In private? You phone up Stephen, but more than likely end up talking to the ring of advisors, spin doctors and sycophants the man surrounds himself with, and seeing as you won't be talking to him, you pray that polling numbers do go up, because otherwise you're stuck with bitching at the next caucus meeting.

I would suggest that anyone that says anything but claiming their ultimate belief in the Harper lines being spewed these days will find themselves in the deepest corners of the back benches. You would not get tossed from caucus, because he needs your vote.

[madmax]

Latest Leger Quebec poll:

BQ 40%

Lib 23%

Con 17%

NDP 15%

Grn 4%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/dissatisfaction-with-conservatives-reaches-new-high-in-quebec/article1435815/?cid=art-rail-bureaublog

[madmax]

5th Consecutive poll shows LPC and CPC neck and neck.

At the end of October – when Mr. Harper was enjoying a double-digit lead – EKOS had the same age group split 41 per cent for the Tories and 27.4 for the Grits.

The current poll of 2,517 Canadians was conducted between January 13 and 19. It shows the Conservatives and Liberals neck and neck at 31.5 per cent to 30.9 per cent overall.

CPC 31.5 Down 9.5%

LPC 30.9 up 3.5%

[ToadBrother]

5th Consecutive poll shows LPC and CPC neck and neck.

CPC 31.5 Down 9.5%

LPC 30.9 up 3.5%

Pretty much a statistical dead heat. We'll see with the next batch if the Tories get a bump from the growing Haiti mission.

[nicky10013]

Pretty much a statistical dead heat. We'll see with the next batch if the Tories get a bump from the growing Haiti mission.

Well, this Haiti thing has been going on for much longer than the sampling period. Though I tend to agree that the next batch will seal the deal, I would've expected at least a 2-3 point bump. It didn't materialize. If the government can't make back at least a little bit of the ground they've lost then I submit that those 10 points simply aren't coming back.

[capricorn]

Well, this Haiti thing has been going on for much longer than the sampling period.

The poll was conducted over the course of January 13 and 19, covering a period of one to 6 days following the earthquake.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/full-report-federal-vote-intention.pdf

This "Haiti thing" as you call it, happened late on January 12 and its full dimension did not sink in with Canadians for a couple of days. The government's response to the disaster unfolded over the same period as the poll. I think the next poll will be more telling as it will probably encompass a period of time following the national anti-prorogation demonstrations.

[normanchateau]

CPC 31.5 Down 9.5%

LPC 30.9 up 3.5%

These numbers come from the January 21st EKOS poll which becomes even more interesting when the statistics are broken down by demographics. Among those with a university education, LPC now leads CPC by a full 7 points. Must be bad news for Harper given that the university educated are more likely to vote.

Harper's strategy in the next election will require him to increase the percentage of uneducated voting and decrease the percentage of university educated voting. This will be a formidable task.

[Shakeyhands]

These numbers come from the January 21st EKOS poll which becomes even more interesting when the statistics are broken down by demographics. Among those with a university education, LPC now leads CPC by a full 7 points. Must be bad news for Harper given that the university educated are more likely to vote.

Harper's strategy in the next election will require him to increase the percentage of uneducated voting and decrease the percentage of university educated voting. This will be a formidable task.

Those damn elitists!!!!!!

[capricorn]

The survey put the Conservatives down 3 percentage points from the last Ipsos-Reid survey in November and the Liberals are up 7 points. Ipsos Reid President Darrell Bricker says the gap has narrowed, "The Tories did get a gust wind in their sails last fall that seemed to carry on for a while, but the minute we hit the prorogation situation things seem to tighten up again."

Bricker says we will have to wait until the government has delivered its Speech from the Throne and budget to see if the change will hold or if this is temporary. Another question that remains up in the air is whether the government's handling of the response to Haiti has lessened the impact of criticism over prorogation.

If an election were held today, the key battleground would once again be Ontario. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, the Bloc has the lead in Quebec, and west of the Ontario-Manitoba border the Conservatives lead every region. In Ontario it is a different matter, the Liberals sit at 38% in the country's biggest province while the Conservatives have 37% and the NDP sit at 15%.

http://www.newstalk1010.com/news/565/1056898

The survey was held January 19 to 21.

[wyly]

I could be wrong but I don't see Haiti aid as benefit the cons...aid is what we expect them to do, had they not responded it would've hurt them...

[Riverwind]

The survey was held January 19 to 21.

These sudden flips in the polls over seemingly inconsequential issues will make for a interesting election campaign. The final results will likely be determined entirely by how parties conduct their campaigns and the media reaction to it.

[ToadBrother]

These sudden flips in the polls over seemingly inconsequential issues will make for a interesting election campaign. The final results will likely be determined entirely by how parties conduct their campaigns and the media reaction to it.

I doubt we'll be finding that out in the short term. Unless either the Tories or the Liberals get substantial jumps over the next month or two, we're not going to the polls any time soon. That's fine by me, because right now I can't stand the thought of casting a ballot for any of them.